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DDweatherman

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Everything posted by DDweatherman

  1. DDweatherman
    It’s really amusing how you’ve taken over for Bob’s old ways. He tells everyone to not waste time at long leads and their ROI, and you’ve been locked in on this one since 9 days out
  2. DDweatherman
    Alcoa is one of my accounts for work we’re trying to get into, know anyone? Haha
  3. DDweatherman
    I'm actually dead right now, kinda does look like him. Probably doesn't fit as Randy's avatar tho...
  4. DDweatherman
    Not being a jerk, its just incorrect often in the middle of tracking key moments before an event. Ask @stormtracker, its best to let those who best at analyzing upper air patterns and trends to key on run to run changes close into our potential high impact events. This one being tracked right now is a week out, so its the best time to learn.
  5. DDweatherman
    Yeah when I think of model analysis, Randy isn't the first name that comes to mind. BUT, you've been doing this a long time, and you're certainly not Ravens94 or that Snowen guy. I know you're not lying
  6. DDweatherman
    Jonjon just wants to see the snow backdrop to the beach, different look than he's used to.
  7. DDweatherman
    Yeah we just did one to Deep Creek and made a trip out of it Saturday-Wednesday. It was one for the books, almost 20" and true blizzard whiteout conditions at times. Awesome event.
  8. DDweatherman
    Doing some work, but I think QPF performed well on this. Radarscope total estimates show 1", which might be overdone. But if some can verify for us, would be interested to know.
  9. DDweatherman
    Just a reminder the GFS isn't to be used for situations/events like these. Just at 18z yesterday, they had 3-5" along 95, while the euro had .5-1.5". Euro still has a better resolution and performed a bit better with this one. We know these are notoriously tricky and tough ones to do well in even during peak climo periods.
  10. DDweatherman
    Yeah he meant the HREF graphic that showed 1”/hr average snow rates across DC metro
  11. DDweatherman
    Agreed. I’m going to be near Taylorsville in Carroll Co. for this one, so should get to see some decent rates in the AM.
  12. DDweatherman
    Agree, really like the improvement. AND... this is one of those things where minute improvements can have big impact downstream wrt surface truth, low track, precip, etc. if we get more phasing to occur
  13. DDweatherman
    I will say I like the backside amplification of the N/S which the last run did not have.
  14. DDweatherman
    These aren't really dramatic changes run over run that I'm seeing through 48, a little east-er S/S and south on the N/S dig. We'll really know in the next 3 frames.
  15. DDweatherman
    Then those positive changes are negligent I feel like by 60 hours... basically same as 18z, overall system held back a bit more.
  16. DDweatherman
    I actually like h5 thru 39 if were being honest with each other here
  17. DDweatherman
    Definitely wasn't worse... but only some of us can interpret outputs I guess.
  18. DDweatherman
    Let's hear a little more about your thoughts. The evolution verbatim I'm not sure it will get with all these waves in flow.
  19. DDweatherman
    Didn't realize the RGEM was a solid improvement actually from 12z oddly enough. Better phase further west.
  20. DDweatherman
    Same, that was better in some ways. 18z GFS is also "not worse" than 12z if you ask me. Bleeding stopped maybe we can now bring it NW.
  21. DDweatherman
    Yeah it's quite a coincidence for sure lol. Thank God I chose to take this past event in Deep Creek. However, we all know nothing is the same as our backyards taking the big hits.
  22. DDweatherman
    Do you think we have the option of a solid event if the northern stream can keep digging regardless of the southern stream energy. In that regard, Euro and some of the 12z's gave us hope (ICON, NAM come to mind)
  23. DDweatherman
    Now you know I'm not. But the Euro is just not the pedestal model it was, and we've seen its performance this season on some systems. That being said, as I mentioned earlier, the flow is just too fast and progressive to have more than a Bob Chill type 3-6/4-8 type event. But that would still likely occur south of us because of where the energy is interacting and the digging of the streams. Lots of reasons not to buy into the good runs besides it being the only model showing snow...
  24. DDweatherman
    I would say if we got a positive trend from the GFS, then maybe. Definitely not showing the same thing now and the GFS went the other way at 12z.
  25. DDweatherman
    What we really need to hope is what I posted yesterday, that the GFS and Euro meet in the middle.
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