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DDweatherman

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  1. DDweatherman
    @Rvarookie coming back from dinner to read the thread, it was nice seeing your posts disappear, and I suspect we won’t be seeing many new ones from you. Cheers buddy
  2. DDweatherman
    The storm will set a record for most tracked storm with fewest model runs that actually impact is significantly @Jitell these people how difficult it is to time a system like this in such a progressive flow.
  3. DDweatherman
    Certainly a lot better than 0z, just need the trough to take on more neutral/neg tilt easier. Energy is all phasing together pretty well in that evolution. Some stuff coming in on the backside to help tilt this. Assume a close miss, but a much cleaner evolution as well.
  4. DDweatherman
    That could, like you said, be either good or completely eliminate the potential altogether.
  5. DDweatherman
    No one said it was a replica of 18z but it did make a recovery. These things take 2 to 3 runs to fully recover if they ever do It woulda been nice if that additional piece of N/S energy that drops down at 138/144 would phase into the backside and help turn the axis more negative.
  6. DDweatherman
    You guys can't seriously look at h132 and think this is going to be a hit, can you? 138 looks similar in evolution and structure at h5 to 18z yesterday, but the juxtaposition is a decent bit east of that.
  7. DDweatherman
    I know why he's saying that, there's a zonal look to the flow when it gets out to h90, but it should be a recovery from priors.
  8. DDweatherman
    Forgiven, I was going to say it looked very similar to 6z through 60 when I had it that far out lol
  9. DDweatherman
    I'm going to have to watch this run come out after the topsy turvy model analysis we've seen the last few days. Ji will tell us its a disaster regardless. through what hour?
  10. DDweatherman
    It’s really amusing how you’ve taken over for Bob’s old ways. He tells everyone to not waste time at long leads and their ROI, and you’ve been locked in on this one since 9 days out
  11. DDweatherman
    Alcoa is one of my accounts for work we’re trying to get into, know anyone? Haha
  12. DDweatherman
    I'm actually dead right now, kinda does look like him. Probably doesn't fit as Randy's avatar tho...
  13. DDweatherman
    Not being a jerk, its just incorrect often in the middle of tracking key moments before an event. Ask @stormtracker, its best to let those who best at analyzing upper air patterns and trends to key on run to run changes close into our potential high impact events. This one being tracked right now is a week out, so its the best time to learn.
  14. DDweatherman
    Yeah when I think of model analysis, Randy isn't the first name that comes to mind. BUT, you've been doing this a long time, and you're certainly not Ravens94 or that Snowen guy. I know you're not lying
  15. DDweatherman
    Jonjon just wants to see the snow backdrop to the beach, different look than he's used to.
  16. DDweatherman
    Yeah we just did one to Deep Creek and made a trip out of it Saturday-Wednesday. It was one for the books, almost 20" and true blizzard whiteout conditions at times. Awesome event.
  17. DDweatherman
    Doing some work, but I think QPF performed well on this. Radarscope total estimates show 1", which might be overdone. But if some can verify for us, would be interested to know.
  18. DDweatherman
    Just a reminder the GFS isn't to be used for situations/events like these. Just at 18z yesterday, they had 3-5" along 95, while the euro had .5-1.5". Euro still has a better resolution and performed a bit better with this one. We know these are notoriously tricky and tough ones to do well in even during peak climo periods.
  19. DDweatherman
    Yeah he meant the HREF graphic that showed 1”/hr average snow rates across DC metro
  20. DDweatherman
    Agreed. I’m going to be near Taylorsville in Carroll Co. for this one, so should get to see some decent rates in the AM.
  21. DDweatherman
    Agree, really like the improvement. AND... this is one of those things where minute improvements can have big impact downstream wrt surface truth, low track, precip, etc. if we get more phasing to occur
  22. DDweatherman
    I will say I like the backside amplification of the N/S which the last run did not have.
  23. DDweatherman
    These aren't really dramatic changes run over run that I'm seeing through 48, a little east-er S/S and south on the N/S dig. We'll really know in the next 3 frames.
  24. DDweatherman
    Then those positive changes are negligent I feel like by 60 hours... basically same as 18z, overall system held back a bit more.
  25. DDweatherman
    I actually like h5 thru 39 if were being honest with each other here
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