DDweatherman
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Everything posted by DDweatherman
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Probably won't be getting wrecked at day 0 either lol. Let's hope though.
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Not really, in my head I only still have this at about a 20% chance of happening.
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Let me be the voice of reason a bit folks, this is still a northern stream dominant phase/close off solution. It did kind of pop back in "medium range", but its a long way off for this type of variable-complex driven solution. The models struggle with N/S waves often times, especially in these cases.
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That was a somewhat unusual evolution as well... and an awesome way to stack snow on the backside of the ULL. Insane ratios and all about blizzard conditions for a while.
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ICON made a pretty good move towards the euro as did its ensembles. Anyone have the 0z UK?
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I think it was or Tuesday perhaps, which is equal to where we are now.
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To reply to MYSELF, at about this range the gfs started trending away from the storm we just had then had to spend a whole day coming back.
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GFS is a step back from 0z and 6z for sure.
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Any chance this actually closes off and stacks too far south for us? I could see it occluding too early if its truly this much of a bomb.
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Nowadays, you can get about these times. 10:30 AM/PM 0z/12z GFS Begins (by 11:15 you're out to 144 hr or so) 11:00 AM/PM GGEM 0z/12 11:30 AM/PM 0z/12z UKMET frames are out 12:20 AM/PM 0z/12 EURO begins Other models & times NAM starts 8:45 12z and 6 hour intervals (takes until about 9:30 for full run) ICON & RGEM both out around 10AM and 6 hour intervals for its cycles
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Well, it definitely wasn’t 1/25/2000 since people got 10-20”
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Big fat flakes mixing in with the sleet a bit. Radar is wild to the SW.
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Trying to go back to more snow here, cc is right overhead as it has sunk back SE last 30 mins.
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Just looked up dominion valley, looks lovely as well. I need to expand my horizons and play some more clubs in 2026. I play a fair number of rounds, but all local to my area for the most part.
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Aldie, isn’t that where creighton farms is? That place looks amazing.
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I’m with you on that window Bob, just told my buddy I think after Feb 6th is when our next “prime” window comes into play. It’ll be one of the coldest stretches between now and then that we’ve had in a LONG time. In general; interested to see how this winter ends wrt anomalies on temps. Going to be a shame up in there parts if we end up at 60% to climo snowfall given these temps.
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The north/northeast winds are kicking up pretty quickly here. Some snow still mixed with heavy sleet which is picking up in rate now.
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If we had good returns over us right now; we’d definitely still be getting good snow. It’s light snow mixed with pingers.
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Good news is with these rates even when pingers mix in, we’ll have such a solid precip rate we should continue some good accumulations. @wxmeddler or @MillvilleWx what’s the ruling on measurement when p-type changes to sleet? Do you clear your measurement location? I know sleet is counted as SN in records, so need a refresher course.
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Hardest rates of the storm right now in those yellows near the M/D line. Hoping we can get 2 more hours of this to hit the 10” mark.
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Over 5” here and rates are about 1.5”/hr. Dumping, 13 degrees.
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@MillvilleWx some aren’t getting great ratios, but I’d estimate in excess of 15:1 up our way so far. It accumulated extremely efficiently when it wasn’t heavy, now in SN+ it’s basically a fog.
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You care to elaborate? 16 here with moderate snow, small flakes. 1/2” or so
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I should remind myself the radar there also doesn’t pick up much of the action coming over the mountains.
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Truthfully, I’m not too bullish on the radar at the moment. Seems spotty and scattered.
