Gfs isn’t going to do it. Hope it’s just being stubborn but with the ai going a bit south you wonder. I don’t really ever consider the icon but it was in the no go camp and I’d argue the 18z rgem was as well.
This is my favorite analog, maybe slightly less QPF laden, but the overrunning and a “light” primary transfer from S OV/TN valley being the key. Anomalously cold airmass as well much akin to PD2.
We have PTSD, a lot of trauma for many of us depending on storm/storm chance since 2016. MBY had one big one in 2021 that was localized but for the most part my kids have never seen a storm over 6”
If the euro shows an area wide 8-12 here in a few I’ll be ecstatic. The model has a history of trashing our fun and shitting in the punch bowl like no other.
Well that’s you, speak for yourself. It’s like @Bob Chill says, you don’t get the opportunity much…so when it comes you try and make the most.
If I get 8” imby I’ll be thrilled, but I’d take 20 if it was possible within reason.