DDweatherman
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Everything posted by DDweatherman
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It's the slightest bit east with the mean low, but more tucked solutions and definitely deeper mb wise.
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132
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Better than 12z, just manually inputted the URL to confirm lol
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The ICON was almost another way to win a good storm, the case of a N/S digging and closing off passing where we'd like it to give us good snow. Just a few hours too late on the formation and tilting of the trough.
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If we do care about the NAM, it's worse up top to our NE than 12z. Done looking at it though, so no further discussion lol.
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Yeah I'd really want to see consistent runs showing that evolution between now and Wednesday. We have 48 hours, by hour 60 in the run we just had some knew it was going to be a bit east.
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Definitely need that PV placement for a good block in place.
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Yes, I'm thinking new england would be the place to be for this last second comeback. It does the short term overcorrect, then tends to "re-correct" back the other way. That said, we've seen a lot happen.
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Probably won't be getting wrecked at day 0 either lol. Let's hope though.
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Not really, in my head I only still have this at about a 20% chance of happening.
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Let me be the voice of reason a bit folks, this is still a northern stream dominant phase/close off solution. It did kind of pop back in "medium range", but its a long way off for this type of variable-complex driven solution. The models struggle with N/S waves often times, especially in these cases.
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That was a somewhat unusual evolution as well... and an awesome way to stack snow on the backside of the ULL. Insane ratios and all about blizzard conditions for a while.
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ICON made a pretty good move towards the euro as did its ensembles. Anyone have the 0z UK?
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I think it was or Tuesday perhaps, which is equal to where we are now.
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To reply to MYSELF, at about this range the gfs started trending away from the storm we just had then had to spend a whole day coming back.
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GFS is a step back from 0z and 6z for sure.
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Any chance this actually closes off and stacks too far south for us? I could see it occluding too early if its truly this much of a bomb.
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Nowadays, you can get about these times. 10:30 AM/PM 0z/12z GFS Begins (by 11:15 you're out to 144 hr or so) 11:00 AM/PM GGEM 0z/12 11:30 AM/PM 0z/12z UKMET frames are out 12:20 AM/PM 0z/12 EURO begins Other models & times NAM starts 8:45 12z and 6 hour intervals (takes until about 9:30 for full run) ICON & RGEM both out around 10AM and 6 hour intervals for its cycles
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Well, it definitely wasn’t 1/25/2000 since people got 10-20”
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Big fat flakes mixing in with the sleet a bit. Radar is wild to the SW.
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Trying to go back to more snow here, cc is right overhead as it has sunk back SE last 30 mins.
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Just looked up dominion valley, looks lovely as well. I need to expand my horizons and play some more clubs in 2026. I play a fair number of rounds, but all local to my area for the most part.
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Aldie, isn’t that where creighton farms is? That place looks amazing.
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I’m with you on that window Bob, just told my buddy I think after Feb 6th is when our next “prime” window comes into play. It’ll be one of the coldest stretches between now and then that we’ve had in a LONG time. In general; interested to see how this winter ends wrt anomalies on temps. Going to be a shame up in there parts if we end up at 60% to climo snowfall given these temps.
