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HIPPYVALLEY
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Everything posted by HIPPYVALLEY
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I have no interest in ice storms and can only empathize with those that embrace that particular craving. A pretty, glazed landscape at sunrise? Awesome. Trees and poles down with power out? No thanks.
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12/17 Messy Mix - Observations/Nowcast
HIPPYVALLEY replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Don't you think you flip back to SN+ for a bit when the heavier precip and better lift moves in? -
If you're gonna' get it done it will certainly be due to dynamics rather than some sudden QPF spike.
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Fine snow type analog with me. I'm not buying the GFS warmth though. RT 2 corridor, is only a brief encounter, towards the nadir of the storm with precipitation that is not snow.
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There is going to be some p-type issues further N than some may want but I think Pike region including Jerry gets a good initial thump then a decent peltfest. If the mid-level lift is good I'm getting 6-8" but I'm leaning towards some periods of sand snow growth and thinking around 5 - 6" here. No complaints either way.
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I'm about 12mi from VT border and I am planning on more than 2"...
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Where were you then?
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Oh' it will definitely be an ice storm for some, fun is a matter of one's particular fetish.
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That was our first winter in Greenfield. Big December IIRC. Great winter overall. I remember my neighbors, who were all lifers here, saying "it was a good old fashioned Greenfield winter". Coming from Cambridge I was just glad to finally have off street parking! lol
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You probably (and rightfully) had that drawn up in your mind days ago but stayed level headed to ingest any potential model surprises inside 24 hours.
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In all seriousness it is more the exception than the norm to see a cold press dominate a SWFE.
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The sleet will do that. His new snowblower will be rendered useless by the ice encrusted sea of pellets.
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Surface temps for most of CT stay below freezing for much of CT on most models I've looked at tonight. SOmnebody is getting a good slug of ice tomorrow. Kevin is going to be secretly crestfallen when he gets a nice SN/PL event but other CT peeps are posting pictures of ice encased landscapes and skaters on side streets and town sidewalks across Central CT.
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Maybe at the end when it is a light foggy mist to put a surreal enhancement on your snow/ice encased surroundings.
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12/17 Messy Mix - Observations/Nowcast
HIPPYVALLEY replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
25/18 Overcast -
You're good for 2-4" and then some paint peeling pingers to strengthen the pack.
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FWIW that French Meteo model seems to agree with a fairly strong mid-level warm push up to or just beyond the Pike. Pretty juicy look on it though.
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You're getting a lot of winter precipitation tomorrow, hope for your sake it is SN/PL and not FZRA. Somebody is getting an ice storm though, that's pretty well hinted at in more than a few models.
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Good lift FTW! We'll see, I'm sticking with my 4-6" call from Saturday but not sweating p-type issues at least.
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Yeah, despite calls for days of snow I'm thinking half a day of snow here but it should be a productive half day of snow.
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There are not many folks I would trade locations with for SWFE systems. I rarely jackpot but I'm always late to the pingers.
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Nobody should ever ignore potential speed of the mid-level warming in these events. The big question for some of the CT peeps is it a pack building sleet fest or full on 6+ hour ice storm?
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Pickles favorite Burlington-WRF model has a lot of Freezing Rain for CT. Even several hours into Hartford.
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Well, downstream if I'm watching the radar and the coast is getting Inv snow while skies are clearing here. ; )
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There will be weenie hand wringing late into the night watching the downstream radar.
