HIPPYVALLEY

Pickles mocked me when I called snow for Rt 2. 

 Sneaky torch day, 50F in Northampton. 

12 minutes ago, dryslot said:

7-10 pm Saturday night give or take, These usually come in sooner then modeled.

As does the mid-level warming.  

gradient winter but hopefully everybody gets involved next two weeks.  snow and frozen coming for many this weekend. 

31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man...GFS, Euro and UK all in good agreement....1-3" south of pike, and 3-6" north of pike.

We 4-6" and maybe 1-2" appetizer Thursday. 

4 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Sounds reasonable.   Maybe I can get 2-4” but this is pretty boring

3 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

January rain is underrated 

well show em we can do +10 departures and then more rain 

right scooter .... scooter...

Lol,  you both have 2 possible snow events in the next few days, obviously Dave more than Pike but it has not been the worst winter... 

Anyway, I'm optimistic the next 10 days. 

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

18z Nam coming in a little further south and colder, Looks like it may get some snow into Northern MA this run.

All of today's major models are trying to get 1-2" along and N of Rt 2.  I'll take.

I will be pissed if both of this week’s systems end up giving ski country / NNE less than 8-10” of snow.  I put off a ski trip N this weekend hoping there would be much better base in the coming weeks. 

14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

But you were informed that this cold cut..or become a slop event days ago.  It's been a possibility all along.  But there is still a long way to go with this too.

Goal posts won’t be clear until Thursday.  

1 hour ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

You know what would be helpful?  If someone who is good at computer graphics could create a composite snowfall map from the last 10 SWFEs.  Then when one shows up in the models, we would all know what we are getting....plus/minus X% based on anticipated storm characteristics. I'll gladly take the standard 6" from a SWFE right now.  At least cover up the dead.

I would hope by now most of us know what that map would look like.

(Says the guy who would take those events all year long)

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wouldn't pay much attention to  deterministic particulars until tomorrow.

I can see where the frustration comes from though, you , me and Hunchie have been in the sweet spot but  that is the nature of SWFE events and we are hopefully moving into a pattern that lends itself a little more to Miller B’s.

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Now that the real TBlizz has his account back and Scooter’s mini melts will give way to a full fledged Colorado rapids raging melt...we should start turning the corner soon.

Might have to wait for Bob to mention liming his lawn and prepping flower beds. 

1 hour ago, Dr. Dews said:

 If a meaningful snowstorm is off the table, just plow the warm front to Laconia and give me 50's.

That is not happening anytime soon so you may as well root for snow or maybe enjoy your 30s and grey for a month or two?

Lol, the players aren’t even on the field yet. We all know set-ups are definitely more needle threading the more SE you are but plenty of time. 

21 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Upside with that was far better then this currently modeled turd.

What is going on in here?  I’m at a Cub Scout meeting and can’t look at models, was 18z that bad?  

6 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

eitherway Maine, NH, VT do well on the weekend, MA/CT/RI up in the air 

They will stay all snow but the forward speed of the system, (potential) lack of coastal redevelopment and possibility of shredding a bit could all mean the difference between 10" and 5-6". 

We switched our plans from going N this weekend to doing so a few weeks from now hoping for some base building.  I don't mind missing the storm up there since February will hopefully offer more terrain.

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

18z GFS continues with it's theme of hammering the NW flow terrain with QPF.  Odd to see it that robust with two meager lows moving through without a big closed cyclonic flow or something.

Exponential QPF difference between you and the MA/VT border. 

1 minute ago, wx2fish said:

What a raw day. 30.4 spitting a little fzdz

Awful, kind of day that feels much colder than it actually is.

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s Monday . The storm is Saturday into Sunday and people are calling rain /snow/ mix lines and worrying. It’s coming 

Of course there's plenty of time to adjust but I think people can't help but take this season's trends into account when considering what can go wrong as far as snow chances are concerned.  If models show a 990mb primary cutting into the lakes it will not exactly fill me with snow confidence.  No matter what, we definitely don't want to see any weakening of the cold to our N.

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Sure but the over amped primary is a head scratcher. Everything else has been trending weaker it. We’ll see.

Ya' Euro is a lot more wound up and W than any other model but lets see how they all trend the next 48 hours.  If Euro stays outlier I won't be as concerned.  Still some decent cold to work with (does it "press"? )but I can't handle another sleet fest, although my woods are melted out front yard is still a glacier.  That Euro depiction would torch the mid-levels, again.

20 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Still time for a hail mary long shot of icy mix down to my area I'd say

FYP

Just now, dryslot said:

May have to start a thread for thurs to get it away from the weekend one to cut back on confusing folks.

I’ve honestly not found it confusing at all but yeah start another thread I guess. 

12 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Coastal NNE.  CNE is interior MA; that’s my take anyway

 I guess I didn’t realize you were right on the coast.  CNE to me is N of Rt 2 and W of ORH in MA  up to a line from Bennington VT to Concord NH. 

17 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

18th has to be watched very closely. I feel like CNE and NNE in great spots for this. The big question is the rest of us...

You are kind of in CNE, no? 

 Welp, summer is over, down to 48F and breezy.

I will say it was nice to have a torch that didn’t include a lot of rain, at least around here.