HIPPYVALLEY

This thread has gone full  

 If you’re not getting snow in January, yes it sucks but the atmosphere manifests as it does and our mathematical models are still a fallible tool.  

Just have fun and go outside every day every season!

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Can we move the Debbie's to the.panic room please. 

Thus my Debruary comment earlier.   There is little indication that we are done with winter in SNE. 

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I hope it tracks through Ottawa, at this point...disengaged.

That would be fun just to have a model fail of that magnitude.

22 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

We have to get through today's trend and see if it stops and comes back a bit.  tomorrow 12Z runs will give a good indication as we will then be at 72.

7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I may have an opportunity in two years to relocate to our sister company in Framingham MA. We’ll see. As a weenie, the Orh area would be ideal. Until then, I have to scratch and scrape for every shortwave to deliver THE one. 

Be careful, MPM moved to Worcester and jinxed their mojo!

12 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

It's impressive to me how the level of model agreement (at least in the OPs) is decreasing with time.

 Effects of the grand solar minimum?   

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Another deep interior snowstorm, yay.

 Things will turn around in Debruary.

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Solid warning here on this 12z GFS run.

Looking better for the Whites also?

1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I would lean weaker more progressive and some elevation snows esp S VT and Monads over 1500’ that do well on E flow. 

Storm is weak on almost all guidance and airmass is crap. 

If it indeed trends weaker then the goal posts will be a narrow range of latitudes that get the best lift and totals.  Your call for Monads out to Hunter would probably be on.

I was really hoping to see the Whites buried b/c I have a few weekends planned up there in early Feb but MWV totals look meh'.

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Confluence looks a hair better, though?

That’s gonna’ be the thing to watch during tomorrow’s runs.  How strong is the confluence and does it hold or does it weaken and slide. 

 All this hand ringing about missing out on a big storm and this could still verify much weaker than currently modeled and be a big bag of meh’ for even NNE. 

Why does the GFS snow output look good for The Greens in N VT and a lot of Maine but kind of paltry for the N Whites in NH??

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

UGLY CT run, thought it would be better with the H5 look early on.

Plenty of time to go still, id be interested in the hills of NW and NE but i think we're likely (southern half) out of the game.

Ugly run for the CRV from Hartford right up through Brattleboro VT.

GFS jumps that SLP all over the place.  Weird.

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Maybe I’m in the minority on this , but we are close enough in now and there’s fairjy good ensemble agreement... I think I have a good chance of a 6” snowfall at least 

Tomorrow night you will have a much better idea of goal posts I think (hope).

45 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah ...s'pose it's time to divert the thread into that mash-up between nostalgia and personal tastes thing - 

For me, if winter is not cooperating by February 10, I'm out. I mean, I've gotten sun-burns in February ... It's like August - the antithesis.   You could be up in it, thick, and be diametric in three weeks.  I almost consider those months really as the transition beginnings going in either direction.  The proverbial seasonal backs usually break in those months - heralds the warning shots across the bow.   

Just knowing that the futility gets to me and stop caring.   Oh, I'll admit to hypocrisy if that historic thing happens in the spring - sure.  But, the realist in me knows that's so fleeting that it automatically shuts down any anticipation for anything other than terminating winter. And I start praying and hoping that the 2nd New England winter that typically kicks off around March 21st and doesn't end until the middle of June doesn't theft 1.5 months of the early warm season. I mean, you get the sore butt winter, followed by 42 mist until June 10... then early cool snaps with a frost in Orange Ma in August ...?  Follow that up with early recurving TC ... we're really talking some loathing  

Change hobbies..  ha! 

It's getting harder lately though.  Man, we had 80s in February a couple years ago. And one March and two different Aprils also couched wack-job heat. All of these spanning the last 4 years, too, where we then lost out to spring to cool pointlessness.   God...  don't do that again. 

Many of us now take this into consideration annually with half veiled jokes about screwgie winters being followed up by wheel of 'rhea type springs that keep people at Fenway Park in lite winter jackets until Fathers Day.  That elusive -NAO will park itself from 4/1 to 6/1 and the only entertainment here will be sarcastically commenting on  the pitiful attempt at a severe season that the atmosphere mocks us with every year.

At least in the CRV we squeeze out some nice dsd days here while the peeps inside 495 still have sweatshirts on.

3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

For elevated hinterlands is a nice solution.

FYP

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Low elevation can make out fine, as long as you don't have elevations to your north or east....and have sufficient latitude.

Biggest hills are to my West.  Do have some bigger hills about 20mi E of me.  I don't really care as long as it's not rain.  I'll take my 6" of baking powder while Hubby gets 20" of feathers. 

12 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Elevation FTW (Hubbdave)

Yeah but latitude will be important too.  Yeah, I'd feel better over 1000' but I guess that's true with most storms right?  Could be a shadow job of baking powder here and worse in the lower valley.   

Just now, DotRat_Wx said:

12-24" Boston

Can always adjust up if needed. 

 It’s funny how perceptions are because I did not look at the thermometer this morning before I went out with the dog and I was thinking to myself it was 10 or 15° out. 

This cold stretch is good though because the pond ice was not trustable.

Got down to 1° this morning. Will this be the year without a zero?

I'd prefer elevation for this one as currently modeled but lat/long will certainly help.

20 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

E NY Elevations (W of Albany) , E Slope Berks and ORH hills look prime at this early juncture

This storm.. if it is gonna be decent duration May require a weenie hotel stay if ASH is gonna be slop or left out 

One of most under-Rated spots (prolly) due to its distance is the Hunter Mountain area . They can get 40” around 2 K in long lee duration deep easterly flow and being further from ocean helped them in that March 2018 Nor’easter where inland SNE (outside of extreme W SNE ) never flipped despite a wonderful track 

Mohawk Trail SP (Charlemont/Savoy border) has year round cabins if you are feeling adventurous.

13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’d like to see the high keep trending in a more westward/favorable position. Need all the cold air available even if the h5 tracks S of LI. We have a shot though, and that’s good enough.

 Yeah, you do not want to rely on needing a wound up bomb dynamically cooling you.   If it’s going to be a more robust high you will have a better idea by 12z Wednesday runs.