HIPPYVALLEY

Snow with a few pellets already mixing in.  29/20

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It's a shit show. I've got the job of turbulence and convection forecasting. Effing mess. 

The passengers on the plane go up-and-down, up-and-down, up-and-down...

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The GFS has that 170 kt jet bomb along and off the EC ...that's why it's overcoming the damming.   It may just be too "damn" much even for positive static stability and inversion.  That's just obscene having two flags at 500 mb over PVD...  with three flags just S of there. 

Probably if this set up had the more 'standard' wind max we'd have had the storm S and damming wins easy but this is looking more and more like just an absurd anomaly with that absolute fantastic fire hose at mid levels.  Hard to rely on conventional wisdom when said bastion of knowledge has almost no occurrence of those sort of parametrics - I admit that.  I've never seen that many 150 kt + flags over that broad a swath since perhaps 1993's March event. Interestingly ... this isn't the first time I've seen those velocities this season, either.

 Enjoy the new atmospheric paradigm it’s the only atmospheric paradigm you have! 

Too bad Sugarloaf is 6 hours from here.  

 At this point I have no idea where I stand for school and work schedules etc. 

 Pretty much planning on a two hour school delay but need to account for maybe taking a day off from work if I wake up and there was a snow blitz. 

 I could see Greenfield getting a quick 3-4” thump actually.  Dynamics here don’t look terrible.

After my 2”  I hope I go over to a 32.1° rain.   I’ll be happy to live vicariously through the folks at higher elevations in central MA.

41 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Agreed.  mostly rain with some mixed stuff further north.  Icing seems less of an issue

2-3” snow for you?

Damn, even a marginally cold antecedent air mass and Quebec high would get the job done for many.  Close but no cigar.  RT 2 corridor looks good for 3-4" before them rains came.

1 minute ago, monadnocks said:

Having had 12 days without power in 2008, I'm really not liking those graphics. All joking aside, what are the realistic chances of that Pivotal Weather forecast coming true?

I'm living at the bottom of a hill around 825'.

Thank you!

Every set-up is different but definitely take the under on ice total maps as a rule.  2008 and 1998 were special events.

That being said, somebody in NE could see .50" of ice.

5 minutes ago, GCWarrior said:

Here in the falls at 600’ I’m feeling pretty good. Areas around here, upper Buckland, Ashfield over toward Savoy could see pretty significant ice. Many places above 1000’ in this area lost power for a week in 2008. 

Might be similar this go round. 

25 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I’ll gas and test the genny etc but I’ll gamble the big ice is above 1000’ 

Wow,  I guess a lot of us have had some wild nights at Judson’s!    Lol. 

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The success rate of forecasting greater than 1/2" of ice over a widespread area at day 3-4 is pretty low.

Ice forecasts are the most finicky of all it seems. 

11 minutes ago, amarshall said:

Just got the last room at the Herbert hotel. Loafin

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 

Good choice!   I love Carrabassett Valley.

Looks like snow bullseye for this one. 

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Been there forever, The 'Herbert" Back in the day, Delivered beer and wine there as well as Anni's Mkt across the street and the mtn.

Do you rememberJudson’s?  Oh’ man! 

All of NNE should do well this week. 

10 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

Yes I know.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

I figured you did, either way, always take the under on ice amounts. 

4 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

Maybe too light on the ice

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

That’s from yesterday, he will update.

Will the ice with this be more in the elevations as it was in 2008? That was our first year in Greenfield and I had no problem with getting 33° rain while to Hilltowns lost power for days.

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Big big ice 90 south 

Good, I hope you get all the ice you want because I would rather not have it here.

9 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

A lot of sleet and zr in that look

We are used to it.

59 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Tippy and his beloved Hadley Cell. 

 Although a lot of it is above my knowledge Tip’s posts are pretty informative.

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’d just like to understand why this isn’t shearing like you guys thought yesterday  it would. Something is going on this winter that models and people just aren’t seeing 

 You need to read Tip’s posts all the way through. 

3 hours ago, GCWarrior said:

Nice Super Bowl tailgate at Berkshire East yesterday.  Skiing was pretty awesome for manmade.  I definitely like that they leave some features in the groomed surface.  

I can't believe we have another poster from Franklin Co!    Make sure you post in obs threads too!

But yeah, Berkshire has done a great job considering how winter has gone.  Saturday was great snow all day.

13 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I had two days in January where all I had was some piles and patches from 12/1.  
Im surprised that I have had snowcover for most of this winter considering the temps 

Same here.

GFS takes the SLP through Buffalo on a SW to NE trajectory.