Typhoon Tip

anyway ... that system was on the charts and we smirked as typical ..They've been on and off, spraying surface lows all over the place - this GGEM solution is rather abhorrently robust relative to whatever trend the former had. But, I still feel overall it's a valid little critter to watch ( if it doesn't evolve more...). It seems to be happening on the front edge of the next contintental surge of cold air and those do tend to curl early so heh. I still say the signal next up is a bit more impressive so there's no waiting.

I still have piles of [ internet weather-related social-media ] shit over here, and that stuff don't melt too fast

Oh yeah

oh shit, I'm the asshole on that one ha! ....I was looking at the 240 to 270 range ... CMC is a different deal altogether

nah... Not sure that makes sense economically to me... The product is still getting to be seen by a lot of masses for free that can be affiliated both with competition and repurposing - which would create an inherent conflict of interest. heh, we'll see

hahahahaaha ... Right, it's not like that means they're going to suddenly show more big bombs and shimmering galleries of glass-blower ice storms now that there free.

it was less than the GFS

what . Wonder how ECMWF headquarters feels about that. It's gotta be a change in policy by that org.

what news

I've personally been a fan of this first week of November for some time ... in fact I mentioned this to Will some three weeks ago, much earlier in that October thread. The impetus was Oct 20 through the 10th but for the time range it's always ~ The details and shit are something else entirely but this sort of sloped hemisphere with early -EPOness was canvased back then in my opinion and through the vicissitudes and vagaries the tele's played mind games only to acquiesce to the original insight back whence - for me, an insight that is rooted actually in larger longer termed systemic reasoning which I won't go into. Point being, when the signal first pinged back then it was better positioned to a real one. We'll see where this goes, but that deal next week has a dense multi-agency ensemble support in HA stat studies wrt to rising PNA modality

So does Heather Archembault

max gusts should ease the rest of the way

Symbology has it's place but .. I cannot help but "feel" as though this cold front turns a page. Whether that is step down, or an early winter remains to be scene.

2015 had a propensity to fail the EPO neutralization out in time... Once the initial -EPO explosion took place ( circa 01/15/... ), the D10 and 15 range were consistently having to correct negative as D14 became 13, become 12 ... 8, and on and so on. While that was happening, opertational versions would emerge new blocking nodes seemingly from nowhere, playing catch-up, usually around the D7 to 10 temporal seam, within the ensemble means. I'm not meaning to say this is a redux for 2015 walking through the door Thanks Giving... Just to watch for a similar behavior. I also suspect that in an AB-phased Pacific/-EPO predominant 30 to 45 day pattern, that type of handling of the EPO domain space is probably more common. Both in verification and in modeling, the blocking over the Alaskan sector/adjacent will demonstrate some stochastic uncertainty relative to a general longer termed tendency to be in the negative phase state. Will mentioned '..breaking down too quickly..' and I was offering support for that precedence; you mentioned reload - that too has precedence.

mm... beware 2015 tho -

is anyone verifying high wind warnings ? oh I see overnight

um yeah ? ...

Hello Kevin, Unfortunately, the more formulative explanation requires one has had comprehensive and most importantly, learned exposure to a rather vast array of geophysical backgrounds - from academia to the frontiers of environmental observation and research. Firstly, this is not simply a matter of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The NAO can ephemerally increase the overall mid tropospheric wind velocities ( usually more over regions of the continent east of your longitude..). However, those periods tend not to last more than 7 to 10 days in most extreme cases. It may also recur after a relaxed intersession, when less height compression mid level winds are observed, and then as the index renews its descent, flow speeds again ... etc. That whole phenomenon is different than what is happening globally at mid latitude. First, one needs to understand why the flow can be fast or slow. When you see a shorter distance between the geopotential lines on a standard 500 mb level chart, that means there are faster wind speeds taking place. When the gaps widen...the opposite is true. In the case of the NAO above, heights usually lower over eastern Ontario, as they do, this introduces more lines ( which is a reflection of increasing gradient ) to the chart between that region and the mid Atlantic latitudes. Increasing the lines/gradient --> increasing the wind flow. When height rise over eastern Ontario, naturally the opposite occurs. What you are asking has an answer that not found in that paragraph. It's a global distinction having to do with warming the tropical band that encircles the global, and then having it begin to expand width. As it does, heigths at mid latitudes either have to rise with it, or, increase in gradient. In the N.H. Summer ( same in theirs..) this is not as noticeable. In fact, at times this tropical/sub-tropical band ( known as the 'Hadley Cell') will even blend with the gener R-wave layout and it's amorphous - you might think of summer as having lighter winds. Then, the ensuing autumn begins to see the heights lower up N first of course, and as that expands south this 'ballooned' HC is not reducing as it used to, decades ago, because of the resident nature of the whole warming atmosphere. That is creating the onset of the surplus gradient at mid latitudes. Hopefully from this you can get some idea why this is happening - difference with the NAO. "What we need to see take place" is cool the whole HC -

Amazing what it takes now to get normal cold-seasonal related events to happen, and happen when they are supposed to. I submit we may achieve that this year, with a -2 SD pattern. I have a rude awakening message for folks... if it were not for these EPO explosions we've been dappling along the time lines of recent decades, winters would already be hugely stressed. But they are offsetting in a peculiar way. It's either +10 at all times, or -20 ... but fewer COL times that happen to situated normalcy. ..not exactly ..just making the point...

mm... beware 2015 tho -

Ok, let me ask you something ... what happens if we apply a subtle correction to atone for the Euro bias? Thing is, it would not take much to get the flow down stream N of the Lakes into a confluence with that arm of polar high extending east of the initial -EPO load. Beyond D6 .. I dunno man that's dangerous look for the whole U..S actually. Lots of possibilities there.. I mean I get it it's hard maybe to see outside that box but the model was too far west with this pattern change; how could we forget. We said the Euro could be too deep in the SW several times. Well.. One thing I will note..the flow is fast - let's not forget that. Embedded impulse works ( not that anyone said otherwise ) are liable to be an open wave bottle rocket variety.

I wish we lived in a universe that was really like that... everything in reality had parts well formed and other parts were weird. Course, that would be completely normal -

Yup, solid points The otherwise knee jerk defensive shtick gets a bit tedious -

that's because those right side lines go off the top edge ... i.e., but clearly you studied it for awhile to tried and use your mind, so I say we are making progress.

At least through the first 10 days ... I'm not seeing a huge difference there actually - timing perhaps. But the 850 thermal/ll PP/mid levels appear within acceptable differences.