Typhoon Tip

Hate to say that it’s probably not going to look that way. It’s more likely what comes down is a leftover mid-level weakness similar to what we just went through where we had heat lobing over the top across southern Canada and weakness to the S evolving thru the mid Atlantic into the Tennessee Valley.

I find it interesting that the GEFs tele's are hot, but the GFS operational is fighting it's own ensemble mean and has been ever since the PNA started tipping negative spanning four night's worth ... It just refuses... So, perhaps this is one of those situations where the operational runs agree and the tele's/ens means then go the other direction - happens ... Yet, the GFS and GGEM operational solutions are just weirdly anomalous with that 'hemispheric tucking' pattern mid/ua/ vortex boring backward toward Pittsburg nearing July like that.. With overarching heights nearing 592 dm over southern James Bay/N of lake superior... I'm willing to sell on this latter synoptic construct and then tone down Euro heat as a compromise?

Definitely feelin' nastier with torridity out there,.. and according to Mesowest/URL sourcing ... DPs are nearing 70 at most ASOS', while temps eclipse 80. KFIT is 84/68 and KASH is 83/70 .. These are 8 deg temp bounces this last hour. Early cu streets are are not showing as robust turrets as previous mornings... Maybe we've finally normalized those lapse rates I was mentioning a while ago :/ was hoping for more cloud photogenetics.. we'll see.

A front limping into the region tomorrow ( Wednesday ...) with (probably) subtle but crucial theta-e pooling along and ahead of it needs to be watched for local training. Sometimes trend in situ an air mass, in this case convection proficiency is up, is useful. We seem to have sufficiently steep mid level lapse rates, producing hit or miss gully-washers despite having been challenged with SBCAPE. Tomorrow's boundary stalls/frontalysis and would likely pool DP, so.. implicating more surface based CAPE up underneath lingering lapse structure aloft might be over producing by some ... It doesn't take much for sensitive triggering and usually once it is pulled, some hapless town/county gets pounded for headline. It's funny ...I was on a bike path doing 25 mile loop a couple days ago, and for about 1.5 mile's worth of distance ... it rained hard enough to gray tint the air with sun shining thru at a slant... I got to the end of the path and looped around to find this skinny glaciated CB with a crispy edge ... and as I headed back down the trail, I punched right back through the same rain shaft... At the other end of the trail, I was seeing the narrow CB that was actually being fed by yet narrower updraft edge, was still festering. Hot and dry at either end of the bike path; and I'm of course soaked to the panty-line with wet shoes and mud on my apparel. I go inside and shower and change and chill on the web for a bit...maybe 30 minutes... head out to the car, and that narrow CB was still festering away over the same region of space. There's probably like 2" of rain over 2-pixel's worth of area by then, no doubt. That was all in this air mass with no real triggers that day other than butterfly farts and unicorn dreams... So, I'm thinking/wondering that having that same air mass in place with an actual 'reason' for air convergence to align thru the area should result - we'll see.

It was an interesting meteorological phenomenon - perhaps unnoticed... I don't know. But, typically backdoor boundaries don't come in this way. As you/we know ...there is more typically a build up of higher sfc pressure in/over the GOM, and then mass- discontinuity restoring rolls on down SW fills in everywhere east of the Berks'... taking Kevin out of contention for bigger heat with violent denial.. We did not actually raise surface pressure in the GOM this time, however. We lowered the pressure south ... and this instantiated the discontinuity from the other direction. I think that is interesting, and the NAM has 08 wind directions on the FOUS into BOS yesterday... June sun saved us here in Middlesex. In April we'd have been jammed up with that skud strata right through tomorrow morning but we've processed it out. The zephyrs are still ESE here in Ayer and though it's bounced to 83/71 and is starting to feel it,...clearly by satellite we are still mixing the slab out. The cu fields over the Worcester Hills are moving this way - I almost wonder if we get a late high... but probably Logan stays butt banged. ... not sure what others are noticing but there are GEF tele's and EPS modal suggestions for heat wave potential next week. Sort of 'cross-guidance' support. We'll see.

It's frustrating ... for heat/convection/summer enthusiasts, but, it's understandable in the hypothetical (which is actually more theoretically organized in papers that are emerging, too). Scott once referred to it as the Pacific pee-pond or something hilarious like that..but the humor is rooted in truth as most humor agonizingly does. Look at the global SST layouts for ...what, that past 23.47 years ..heh. It's always 90% of the areal expanse of oceanic mass out there having sfc temperature in gaudy yellows, oranges in reds. Oh, sure...sometimes you get the Kalvin-Hem. waves down there in a faux NINA signature right on the Equator ...like now, eh hm. Anyway, the coupled oceanic-atmospheric model imposes a massive forcing on the atmosphere in the form of "ridge potential" It's not always going to look like a ridge - that is quoted because ...it's more like a base-line restoring force? Kind of like the llv curl vector east of the Greens/Whites in NE... You want measure a wind coming from the ENE (necessarily) along/in that tuck geography, but, if/when the atmosphere need less impetus to get the wind to tuck, look out! Same sort of deal ... the flow over Canada leans on a tendency ...and whenever compensators relax, the tendency takes over. The rest state is more NW than it use to be, because the Pac westerlies of merely vaguely situated farther N ...even if in mere kilometers, if it does so everywhere west of the American continental geography, the wind over the geography of America will respond. The winters do this too.. but what's fascinating is that the HC is also concurrently remaining bloated ...and this is causing increased ambient jet velocities - it introduce a whole bevy of different headaches. But as far as summers, we're getting snow QPF in eastern Ontario under the solstice and it ain't because of super volcanism or cometary impact scenarios. I'm referring to it as the Pacific folding pattern... There were papers written in the early 1990s believe it or not, that were based upon early/primitive climate-change models...that predicted NE Pac ridge propensities leading to cooling over N/A ... it's like we are seeing a perverse verification of that ... but more so in the tendency if you will. interesting.

That's likely going to typify this summer ... The extended range model solutions often bulging the season-continental ridge expansion to engulf the eastern Lakes/NE regions... only to have the mid range solution "cancel" the look - get used to that relay. Then, when those mid-terms get into nearer terms ...say 120 ...96 < ..we end up like the Euro 90+ for at least one afternoon before the next CC-attributed Pac folding pattern dumps another cold orgasm into Ontario to enable the local neurosis all over again... End results, we either average out to the back-ground climate-change that's decimals above normal...or, perhaps +1, ...sort of under the radar. Either way, we'll be above while still ending up with blue in the color coding by NASA when compared/relative to the rest of the world per their monthly state of the climo press releases. It's rather predictable ...

Still don't see much indication that the ridge failure to propagate east of ~ Detroit, old head-game of 2-step to suppress heat for any reason imaginable from ever really getting to New England, is going to change over the next 2-weeks ...but, we'll see. We'll be modestly above normal ...maybe even a tick or two more than that, before the next ablation comes shunning on down...

I'm not going to sit here and arrogantly intone as though I know that is not true... even though I don't think that happens - personally. I don't care if I'm wrong, but this did this the last 5 years Kevin... We had a early eastern heat dome decay and it never came back... some years it was July 4...some years earlier, but there was permanent NW shearing axis that got established after early heat, and rendered the rest of the summers pedestrian... and no muscle was capable of changing the NW jet persistent flow through eastern Canada - when that happens... no. sorry. We'll see if this year bucks the trend, but, I admit to not knowing if this is just a local time-span statistical grouping ( noise-based random faux pattern) or if it's keyed into CC but I suspect the latter "to some degree" - sorry, had to on the pun but here's the rub...we've been above normal despite The problem is perception versus numerology part company ...for a variety reason in the former. But I don't wanna write a sermon no one reads so I'll leave it that.. Simplest terms? Heat haters have been lucky-ish... It could have been worse... The rest of the world has been warmer relative to norms than here. Mm, 'relativity' ...gets ya every time. I've often thought it ironic... that the civilization of western/Industrial foundation most (probably) guilty of anthropomorphic GH terraforming, is being enabled NOT to see the extend of the damage the most - weird. I think it's Gaia turning up the dial on the oven to the 'Clean' notch - which it can't do if the U.S. suffers enough to change it's profligate ways - so it protects us...and makes us think it's somewhere else ... muah haha

not necessarily .., not sure why the ridge in the west "means" that - but ...if you mean there is a 'supply' ? okay - but ...I think it's just as plausible we shunt summer down this year and then have a cold snap and boner lube early snow threats that only smear out into more gradient speed shut down of winter... global warming is f up the baseline pattern climatology and it's all new...and get persistent in that newness how long before I'm not the only one admitting this. btw ...there are noted Mets that are not on these social mediaspheres that already see it happening, too -

Uh .. wouldn’t that already have failed after a week of 85ers o’re 60 DPs

I'm seeing similarities in the current guidance ( for the next ~ 10 days ) to the last several summers ...really going back to 2010, where I'd say 2/3rds .. 3/4 of them did this. We'll see if this goes on to do it... but, those in the majority demoed early heat that collapsed into some sort of hemispheric anchored NW flow regime - uninspired heat the rest of the way. The extended ranges are moving a heat ridge to about Detroit, then... holding it in position while heights fall and erode it from the west side of its arc - the total evolution is that the ridge never gets here... and ends ups folding south under said permanent Maritime trough. Welcome to persistently ablating/shunting "big heat" SW of eastern Canada and New England included in that general geographic scope. it's in the present guidance... Not sure it will characterize the summer ...but I definitely saw that antic take place more times than not, over more summers than not, in the last 10 years. What we just had was "big heat" on the thermometers due to local enhancing of slope winds under a purified sky ... It really maximized and and made for big heat numbers ... but not really via the big heat pattern - it was wasn't antecedent in play. It's a bit of conjectural language ..sure, but most know of Sonoran heat release/ejection, and that air mass then ascends in latitude arcs over a continental pig ass heat ridge and then actually we get our hottest atmosphere at a regional all inclusive scope from a W or even NW trajectory out of a 24 C/850 mb 12z sounding over southern Ontario...etc... That's Aug 1975 and July 2012 (?) ... The recent heat didn't originate in that way.

Ugh... Kevin's been trying to push the drought-drama dystopian vibe for years and for years...dry times get corrected inside of a single afternoon of convection...often causing FF statements, yet ... the hardness of his skull and not learning the futility of attempting to push drought-drama doesn't seem to learn and guess what.... here we are again, and he's pushing the drought-drama dystopian vibe like it's never happened before... and around and around and around we go with helmet and drool-cup learning curve of the hill-side America

Proooobably not? but ... man will never build machines that can fly and there was once a time when it was theorized the speed of sound was an upper velocity limit.

I really am wondering if atmospheric scouring during/post/on-going industry suspension is allowing crucial insulation loading - I mean we could go thru the math but just wonderininin... some particulate mass in free air has an albedo .

People either don't get it, or don't care... and I feel like I'm yelling at an empty room ( lol ) ...but this is indirectly related to the expanding HC stuff - which is empirically measured and papered, btw so folks that care to understand oddities as they get more common, really should give a shit... But, what happens is, the easterly band in the Atlantic quadrature of the total HC belt ... has a widening latitude, and that displaces the westerlies over top ..pushing toward high latitudes ... It's why we've seen increased actual tropical wave activity, along with eddy captured Saharan air-layer dust running up as high as the Carolinas in recent decade .... But, this may happen more frequently...where the Mid Atlantic ends up more SE with eastern heat patterns ...where they were SSW mid way through last century... and that's humid/elevated nightimes, but damped higher temperature flow for them. But indirect to all this, the continental heat delivery belt ends up higher in latitude. It's not at all times...duh. And there will be times where the more familiar paradigms set up ...obviously these things have blurred climate lines... But, this whole synoptic evolution leading to this three day ridge/warm pattern was modeled to have an unusually wide expanse of easterly-type trade belt S of Bermuda ...and the rest state of the exiting lower tropospheric ridge glided right straight east over top and did not assume the traditional position more SE of Cape Cod toward Bermuda... the result was that the heat belt was displaced N-NW...

Yeah agreed... NASA was founded by/for a set of virtues after the mid century space race only made it look like that was happening - but that was a farce and facade that masked one of the three real faces of the Cold War. Those being, nuclear stock-piling, the Cuban Missile Crises, and the Afghan conflict with the Soviets ( which led inexorably to the Taliban if one knows their world history...) For a few decades, it was then operated by principled idea of space/science exploration .. slowly eroding ... pretty much no longer exists. They've arrived to a scenario where circumstances ( less economic appropriations ) means they either severely limit the operation down to irrelevancy ... or, partner with privatization - enters Elan Musk. ....and in 40 ..50, 60 years ( if perhaps optimistic...) we can work it out so that these seeds grow a reality that really is like "Ellysium"'s orbiting ring-world of utopia for the wealthiest ...and the other 99% lives below with half the life expectancy on a diet of dead cats and sewer water on a planet that roasts in GW and the stench of countless extinct species... Oh, and these rat "landers" are still conned into voting for Trumps - Speculation is so much fun ... Real space science is now lost on Americans and probably the rest of western civility ...a latter distinction that is blurred anyway. Industry is dumbing-down mankind, pacifying the species with easier access to living, lost urgency ... a confederacy of idiots. It's what happens... Lost humility in desperate times leads to positive inventions, both social and physical, because there is need to make life better for all, utilizing both ... Society succeeds in doing so, life gets easier... apathy takes over across successive generations... and sloth and decay take over once again. It's happened in every civility since the beginning of... Cyclic - ... Now this may seem heavy-handed with moral this and that, but, ...I don't like the privatization of cutting edge technology - that usually doesn't end well for the provincials

There'll be a trough rollin' out this air mass ... Indeterminate heat around our particular geography is almost never going to happen anyway. 3 days ...? yeah, it'll be time, anyway, when that front comes through to end the laze faire warmth party. I agree that the Euro is too deep with that sudden inordinate looking bobbing downward in latitude with the trough as I outlined/annotated above. A flatter/progressive correction... Won't shock me if Sunday is a breezy and 74 with d-slope DPs around 33 by 4 or 5 in the afternoon.

scrubbed

Euro here is the D6 ... whenever you see a post Day-5, teardrop trough that is perfectly symmetrical like this, it is far more likely it is an enhancement of something other than organic physics in the model and I suggest that while a trough translation may be real ...it is unlikely to attain the fictitious structure below ... That might also call into question the scale and degree of cold it transports.

Of course "flipping" seems to be an emergently increased frequency phenomenon - it happens more than it used to..ha. Seriously though, I've seen these wild swings more and more in recent decades so...

Assuming it happens The fact that D7 has near heat wave 850 ts rolling through the upper MA not 24 hours after that strikes me as a model having trouble managing both: seems the model's 4-d antics are in conflict with organic physical processing there... I'm still not believing that until it's at D4.5 in this particular synoptic leading circulation type - it seems to be placating a particular bias the Euro has to take anything that's residual after it's clean-up normalization algorithms ...and assumes since it made it thru, it must be legit ...so we better gas-light the remainders. But then it's stuck with too much depth, and then the ensuing frames force and results is an questionable/ unnatural flipping signal.

This is a straight up hot day in metro-NW of interior SNE.... Northern Middlesex/W Essex and N. Worcester Co's are 88 to 90 on enough home stations and uniform in layout ...combined with sensible people daring to walk down the street and back.. sorry, it's f'n hot man. It's real. Exacerbated by the fact that the sun is thru pure blue not typical for +16C at 850s... this post Pandemic holocaust clarity is lazing the landscape - and there's very little ventilating wind. Probably we squeeze another tick or two on these numbers, too. Plus, the wind seems to have veered slightly more SSW as opposed to S and that is walling off the south coastal indirect modulation - Pike south is modestly relieved

Mid 80s up here along the Rt poop... DPs around the town's Wunder' network are doing the typical 68 backyard thing ...so probably 63 mixing depth or so...But as we lamented yesterday, it only matters what is felt on the person, so if it's 86/68 ...it feels what it feels regardless of tarmac sources... anyway, I wonder if the S. coastal 'boundary' makes its way up this far... Prolly not.. it probably gets to about the Pike then the eastern end of it tilts toward Cape Ann/SE NH...

Seasonal lag is blurring season distinction ... Summers are getting affected over the greater geographic region of central/eastern Canada, and it is subtending influence into the NP-Lakes-NE regions. The Pacific balancing/folding pattern is causing a global cooling well to materialize ..one that counter-intuitively appears more endemic to summer, but then washes out late autumns when winter kicks in. This has been going on with just enough interruptions to ignite arguments and obscur awareness - but ... unfortunately, it's not a good sign for winters in general. Y'all wanting-on these weird trough incursions that are climate oddities, ...as though 'symbolic' of short summer...heh. You should be advised, it's not getting you closer to your neurosis fulfillment of winter. Heh... ribbing aside, your winter is probably just as f-ed, because of the same force f'ing up the summer(s) is doing what last winter did, to last winter... and the winter before...and will likely mean winters continue to be impacted by disruptive wind anomalies at mid latitudes ..ripping R-wave stability and preventing traditional storm tracks from doing what they did prior to the hockey-stick CC onset 20 years ago... ( lol, but all seasonal outlooks are meaningless until some Met has the cojones to say, no winter because of CC - that's their outlook. 21, ten page climate outlooks from reputable firms, with one genius paper summed up in one sentence like that). Too much gradient. HC expansion into lower middle latitudes during cold season is compressing the flow and ripping cyclone transit belts all over the hemisphere to pieces. But that same thing is causing NE Pac cold loading to perpetuate/kick back in spring and summers... Yes, this happens despite hotter than normal decades from IND to NYC...