Typhoon Tip

Valleys ? nah... that's a brain scan/neuro-tapestry of Gaia ...and is she pissed!

Could also be a scenario where the modeling et al just rushed it ... which I hate. I've actually seen summers(winters) that persistently put up delicious menu patterns in the extended, and then it finally happens in the first week of September ...or, the last week of March...as some jipped version as though it was a bate-switch the whole season at hand...ahahaha. The thing finally gives you a taste of what it was lying about, but still smacks your face by doing it when heat or cold is seasonally muted for being so lagged -

Yup... I was musing with PF the other night how invariably ...this spring into early summer ( so far ..) has been an exercise in futility getting 'biggish heat' looks inside D6. In fact, it has not happened yet successfully - speaking to SNE... Yet the modeling in that time frame would have driven humanity to a special consortium summit for the heads of climate impact regarding the death of civility as we know it... Brian and I were speculating that there's something in the back ground physics that's opening open up/exposed by the loss of nearer term offsets that do seem to get smoothed out -either by model convention/design, or perhaps time... Basically, either removes the nearer term offsets and some underpinning signal expands the ridging... like canvased tendency underneath all else That said, we did see the Euro do this on a D7/8 chart last week with a BD and it disappeared within a cycle or two ...so there is some precedence, within that general failed framework, to still oversell BDs by the Euro... It's really like layered errors: too hot of a synopsis in general, is offset by a fictitious BD... when neither happens in lieu of the pedestrian reality. I can see why the Euro is BD manufacturing though ...the trough in the nearer term ( D4 and 5 ..) residually limps and fills its way into the Maritimes, but has just enough mechanical power to NVA some mass build-up over the region...then, geophysical biases kick in and the model can't resist. Here's the the thing... the model(s) et al are subtly introducing flies in the pure hot ointment comparing yesterday's purity, anyway. And that's usually how the shirking starts... We could abolish the BD and still end up pedestrian and forgettable for the usual erosion/corrections anyway...

Today is open sky dead wind stifle ... it's 83/74 at 9am here ... with leafs on trees still like solidified in amber. You can hear the sun's unadulterated insolations ...sounds a bit like microwaving sunday's roast.

Seeing as you were begging for additional insights ... -- the 'swhirl' will comes up the coast more intense than expected. invariably, the models will not handle the physics and get sort of mottled or confused with the land being nearby and improperly fusing drier air source they'll fumble around and phase smear it between two cyclone types... which then assesses the system larger and less coherently intenser core-ward. Meanwhile, the swirl crosses a developmental threshold that the models and humans never see coming...whatever that is - and it's relative to the super synoptic metrical layout when/where/strength that happens. Once that happens, it leaps to 70 mph and they hurricane warnings to Long Island when no one around land is even seeing winds gusting over 45 mph... -- or, weaker, ...because it's proximity to land and colder water N of the Del Marva will mean the models and interpreters improperly fuse these cooler sources and thus, fumble around and smear it between two cyclone types while biasing too strong due to the don't-ask-don't-tell over-sell PR tactic that TPC employs but doesn't admit to M.O. whenever Seagulls fly within 500 miles of any coast... -- the NAM typically has maintained a NW bias with western Atlantic cyclones. I dunno know if that's true with tropical/barotropic physically powered phenomenon, or, if it is still true.. but, that was the case through the 2010s

Hey Bob... ...let me know when y'all think it is worth it and I'll pull that post from earlier and create a thread for that heat - I mean ...perhaps too early today. 12z operational GFS went alarming... It's alarming because this run does not very readily transport thermal ridging polarward as a base-line bias, yet it's D9 overcomes. is literally dangerous from Chicago to Boston, with 22 to 25C 850 mb in rare trajectory for multiple diurnal cycles... and unless there is some impossible to determine MCS modulators that's going to be a delicious soup of pandemic, dangerously high heat indices and brain amoeba tick bites... In fact, we could start that thread and put a bold disclaimer that it is experimental and should not be deemed a forecast at this time but something watch in future guidance...

Operational GFS slightly more robust with D8 heights ... I'm surprised this particular model manages to get to D9 without carving a NW flow and grinding heights backward on this run... This model is seemingly parameterized to circular sander ridges into buttes... but, this is the 4th consecutive run where if anything, that is less evident. Hmm... By day 10 we see that beginning but... that far out the model's likely losing the foreground signal in low of the base-line perennial circulation that doesn't want 594 height isohypses hanging around from BUF to BOS to put it nicely.... That's a definite and bono fide heat wave there, D7 entry into D10 ... by hydrostatic scaffolding alone...

I'm actually more concerned/excited for the Mohawk Trail/Rt Poop corridor down in N. Mass/S. VT and NH because typically around here, we right turn and start pac-manning cells toward the richer CAPE early..... But this is also got that mountain lift thing up that way too...so synoptic metrics combining might offset that effect too -

yeah it was about 4 minutes this time ... phew... lol.. kidding. Morning coffee

For now...agreed... I'd even go 19 C as a base-line corrective assumption and think 94s.... Just seasonal trends, as we mused rightfully so yesterday - I'm a big fan of trend like that because they are really an echo of the background environmental mechanism - eventually, the teleconnections et al will dictate because energy and mass is conserving in every direction...blah blah blah. The GEFs agree with the EPS in the 500 mb hydrostatic layout within an acceptable margin of error, and both are nearing or at historic plausibility ... hmmm. Here's the thing: It's the first time that has happened this year.... so, that could be a philosophical argument to offset said trends -we'll have to see. But both/blend offer a margin of error that would fit big hypsometric/scalar 850 mb numbers inside of those hydrostatic heights - ... Course, a cumulus butterfly notwithstanding... The GEFs modulates by D10 into a look where probably it has a couple members tipping NW flow... going toward said consistent/seasonal agreement. That may introduce BD contensions and longevity ...probably start sending quasi-dry-line non-cold fronts that skrew us out of big numbers without actually being physical recognizable fronts... haha... you know how that works. Meanwhile, the Euro is ratcheting up an even hotter D11 or 12 extrapolation with 25+C 850s west of ORD ready and completely able to dragon fart right on in here ... Yeah, that 1911 comparison...interesting. It's too bad we haven't got a better re-analysis source work for that?? I mean the NCEP library is sketchy earlier than the 1950s...

I mentioned that in there... but there's a lot there sorry - Yeah, 2011 I believe was the last time the models picked up at early extended lead, a hemispheric event and maintained the appeal all the way to verification - ..again, a Derecho seemed to demarcate the end of that one...That heat wave in the Euro - if memory serves- had an 850 mb thermal ridge approaching 26C!! punching E from Missouri to the M/A ... it actually missed New England to the south by a pube - You know ( and the same is true for all atmospheric phenomenon, spring, summer, fall and winter...) ...bigger events tend to survive model vagaries... It is as though they have physics that the models see 'unmistakable' at longer leads, as though they are 'immutable' ?? if that makes sense... They have a momentum presence in the general eddy of the hemispheric physical maelstrom, so they can withstand pulverizing chaos and emergence fractals that would tend to dampen or ruin the other/less "big" D8 no'reasters... haha...but ...in this case, the scaffold for a big potential heat - I'd like to see another two cycles of persistence in the 'reasonably' well-agreed upon EPS/GEFs...and if the GEPs were to migrate it's positive anomaly node N to coincide would also be a nice confidence bonus... Otherwise, I'm still leaning more toward this as just eye-candy for summer enthusiasts... but that's not a declaration or anything...just leaning.. I think I'm making it pretty clear that there is some chance for something like this... The Euro is almost too perfect a set up too... I mean, it's really right at the envelope of Terran geophysics... It doesn't have to be so insane to still put up historic numbers... We could distract that layout of the Euro and still make 96/74 common from ORD to BOS and that'd be pretty damn excessive. Right now, the Euro would support numerous 102/103 type readings over absurdly large area...

Anatomy of a "Sonoran Heat Release" ... Walter Drag coined this expression back ... Jesus, I wanna say around 2000 give or take, but I really like this turn of phrase because it does very nicely label the synoptic mechanism for how excessive/'BIG HEAT' gets acutely discernable and transmitted across the mid latitudes of North America. Below is a still frame animation of the 850 mb temperatures, which rather nicely elucidates how this type of heat expulsion from preprep synoptic west, is identifiably different than the background climatology of standard middle latitude summer warmth ... Typically there is a synoptic trapping and huge insolation charging of SW regional air mass within a lower theta-e environment; this concomitantly/physically expands heights and primes for hypsometric mixing should this air get ejected, where higher geometries or conserved... The soundings over those regions begin to represent that air... Elevated Mixed Layer is a marker, but the 800 mb temperatures in general might show surpluses.. then, a larger scale perturbation in the flow 'dislodges' segments of it and get pulled out.. Typically this happens because height falls near or descend through the Pacific Northwest, and down stream there is an establish mid level veering in the larger circulation eddy. IF/when said air is then ejected, but then happens to time well with an anomalous mid level hydrostatic heights, the hypsometric heights are then getting a positive feedback on ability to expand diurnally. Tall boundary layers with very long surface potential temperature adiabats results... and this 'synergistic' sort of results in numbers that exceed the typology of summer heat for regions ..usually extending Iowa to New England/Mid Atlantics... Below is showing how this phenomenon typically evolves in the 850 mb level... From left to right .. top down, that's D6, 7, 8 and 9 of the 00z operational Euro ... Note, the last panel has a re-enforcing mass/plume ejection that is backloading the initial continental conveyor (C/o "Tropical Tidbits" https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/): Here is the day-9 500 mb hydrostatic/heights layout for/during that ending frame above: This is about as obscene and anomalous as I have ever seen one of these modeled ... in a vacuum, regardless of any man-handled and beef-witted assumptive mangled surface temperature products there may be in existence ...this would support 100 to 105 temperature readings in most urban and/or climate favorable locales or where not available to modulation from any local offset physical circumstances... extending across a mammoth geographical area of the CONUS... ORD/DET/BUF/NYC/BOS ... DCA-PWM ... the Tenn Valley to Missouri would all suffer excessive and historic/high risk heat criteria in the 2-meter. And what would make this particularly bad is the synergistic feed-back from it being multi-day where the previous diurnal cycle services the next with an improved setting for heating across successive periods... I have lower confidence issues with this happening right now... mainly because the seasonal trend to build larger 500 mb hydrostatic anomalies in the D6 to 10+ range has been dominating the guidance tenor as spring has aged into summer, and thus far, few or not have managed to transpire ...or not nearly with the same panache and resonance as these guidance depictions. What has corrected routinely, is a NW flow adaptation as these latter ranges become more midrange proper...then verifying as NW/confluence circumstantially driving fropas and 'backdoor' type corrections in the lower troposphere east of OH/Kentucky ~ longitude. Having said that... I am not 0 confidence either ha... seriously, the GEFs gave me pause... That is an extraordinary appeal from that hugely ballasted mean - in that it has more perturbed members ( I believe ... check that -) but to have that sort of ginormous 594+ isohypses closed contour ...situated "reasonably" well/collocated over the same region as the EPS ...should at least send a flag. I just don't know about the extremeness...and given to the fact that we are nearing the climatological apex of summer anyway, ... if we mute this by some reasonable conserved approach: (seasonal trend + individual model bias + typical D8 uncertainty)/3 ..it might = something less obscene and probably more like a standard heat wave. Meanwhile, we have advanced climatology/formally scienced papers being disseminated about these sort of events becoming more commonplace, both in N--S amplitude and W--E duration ( symbolically...). I have personally noted that in recent summers, North America ( particularly eastern) has been spared these sort of "special" heat events that are synergistically over achieving ... The last time we had a run in with this higher tier exceptional heat expression, and had it actually succeed from extended modeling detection all the way into verification, was the big heat event in 2011 that ended with the historic Derecho that ripped from NP-MA in July that summer...

Yeah I don’t think any of that is convincing frankly ... Seeing heat domes and ridges in that time range all season long and push comes to shove we started eroding them back southwest with buckshot excuses to do so. Maritime unrelenting permanent neg fixture… But If this time is different eventually one of them is gonna work out I guess we got a week to f! It up or get it done.

Why would it be frowned upon ?

252 hrs is convincing ...?

The virus won’t last forever… Don’t tell industrialized mass media’s unscrupulous information manipulation or a society that’s addicted to information drama… But eventually there will be no pandemic whether that happens sooner or later there will come that time

Vs tippy ?? Wtf not sure what I got roped into there but I guess game on ...

This whole thread a needs matter-energy replicator like in star trek, that can turn it into a baseball bat,...that then bludgeons Kevin whenever he impulsively dooms us with drought fears because a single blade of his lawn's grass turned to straw

I was wondering when someone would start the very necessary thread called, "Drought Ending Rains and Menial Convection"

I refuse to open Wiz's thread, "Drought ending Rains and Severe Convection" until such time as he removes the impudence of the word 'severe' before convection in that title.

Yeah in all seriousness it's pretty clear this takes place...particularly in summer. But I think you're right also in that the models might tend to "smooth" things...and then that sort of falsely intuits a longer wave length/R-count ...and the summer is just too nebular to expect that to A ...hold in the runs, or B ...exist.. haha. but you know what mean. But sometimes it happens... the big heat in 1995 and 2012 ...these had mammouth long r-wave lengths with Sonoran expulsion caught up in an anomalous STR.. What's funny, NE was spared big heat in either one of those... I'm almost thinking 4 days of 100 heat ...bookended by 2 days of 90s at either end has a longer return rate than a 1978 blizzards... if that can geophysically happen at all around here.

may experience with that ... it'll be pretty tight and nucleus'ed ... it'll be a rain ball with thunder maybe ...and it'll clear by 10 am with 77 F DPs and temperatures laboring to make 85 by 5 pm... with some crispies glaciating late, but sun and bermuda blue skies in the interim.

The impetus of that sardonic take there....Kevin, is that it never appears to actually take place... So if Dendy said that than all do accolades on his stunning achievement in model nuances

This might be the longest sustained historic heat signal only existing between 200 and 384 hours that has ever persisted in the GFS ever - haven't checked specifically ... but it seems road surfaces have been melting and railways buckling in that time frame since about February 20th

why would that be trolling exactly ? lol ... people can't be expected to dance around others delusion of personal sensitivity space because some fact of reality happens to not agree - it's not trolling .... it's called, 'tough shit' haha