Typhoon Tip

Sure ..good question... Conditional Symmetric Instability in a quick Web look up should be sufficient to elucidate that phenomenon? https://www.weather5280.com/blog/2017/01/05/what-is-conditional-symmetric-instability-csi/ This excerpt here, from that source, nicely fits this overall scenario ...etc..etc.. there are other hints and discrete aspects that also fit ...which I will leave to your devices.. "... the vertical profile must be at or near saturation. This is where the "conditional" portion of CSI comes into play. Also, note how the winds are turning clockwise, or veering with height. A sounding like the one below, if observed on the southern side of an upper-level jet streak, could be an area where the release of CSI is possible. .." In this case, we have a 500 mb SW ...100 kt wind that is turning E at 300 mb over CNE over the course of the event... and the column is going to be saturated with that pwat/S stream air riding up that frontal slope and taping into the environment... ...not gonna re-iterate but you get it.

I feel the move by BOX to expand was probably a good call this morning .. I would extend the watch into southern VT/NH/Lower Maine coast too.. The thing about this that has me suspicious for a significant impact scenario - albeit perhaps tapering, which is an unusual result relative to the gestation of the climatological Nor'easter ... - is that there is still some 80 to nearly 100kts of 500 mb jet max riding up and over the polar boundary interface/or immediately astride on the N side of the best perceived lower thickness packing that will approach extremeness somewhere within meteorological shouting distance of a WSW/ENE axis near the S. coast... Dec 2005 rings a bell ..even if it is not really in a very good total analog space for this.. .. Both had/modeled a similar very compressed thermal interface along or just S of the S.Coast...with wind max at 500 mb moving about 50 or 70 or so miles on the polar side of said interface. Why that is important is that packed thermal interface means an upright elevated frontal slope, such that maximizes UVM proficiency for any entrained parcels... A nexus of pseudo-adiabatic destablization from latent heat release/buoyancy from/during cloud explosion ... then being augmented further by superior Q-v forcing by said exit-entrance jet acting as difluence running by just to the N... This is a positive feed-back for lift. That's a lot of long words to describe this being uniquely capable of over-producing ( or in this case, performing on par - amazing!) when we have the these physical parametrics overlapping - I would also be looking for CSI.. or quasi CSI banding and thunderstorm activity too, maybe more so NE PA/ N NJ and White Plains NY ... but if James' ( tm his warm front ) 10C dt/dx really does line up across a mere 50 miles ... some of that can't be ruled out as enough mechanics "appear" still available along the Mass Pike... feeding off CAPEd air if that were not enough... This is a S/stream theta-e potent air mass being forced up a steep ascent and the synoptic evac ... and it doesn't stop there.. because I am noticing the right exit-entrance emergent jet at the 300 mb level is over CNE ... and that's sort of completing the circuitry ... Just as an 'index finger rule' ( too ...) we were always taught in the 1990's up at UML ... you tend to look for 1.5 D polar side of 500 mb wind max trajector for snow climate and even the GFS has it's wind axis cutting across the L.I. S and tho these general rules are made to be broken... mm - I could see region Amherst to BED, MA type axis doing interestingly well in this -

Personal experience with the NAM: It's passing thru classic 'NW bias' intervals for the next 2 .. 3 cycles. Thereafter, it will likely receded a couple lat/lon ticks SE ...but also shave some of QPF - ...which, I am noticing that despite other observers speaking of stronger overall synoptic evolution thru/by the region, the latter has already commenced ... part of that is systemic bias correction, but also, par of that is owing to its axis of band-back "quasi" trowal/WCB termination over cold dome, as being position NW too. Probably less than fun to try and separate those. The 0z and 6z runs were nearing 2." liq equiv+ at Logan ( for ex..) and this run keeps that location short of that number. That said, it is upping the totals at ALB over prior guidance... so there are two aspect going on, (some systemic bias correction + position differences)/2 ... effecting snow totals and QPF and so forth.. Bottom line for those using the NAM ... ( hopefully no one at intervals beyond 36 hours without a mischievous grin ), future cycles probably bump said axis' SE and take maybe another 1/5th of QPF ... which, isn't even saying either is correct - just that it is my experience that it does this moving through intervals < 60 hours.. Otherwise, it seems this run from orbit is showing what the other models are... a tendency for deamplification of the total wave space as this event is leaving... The NAM is slower to do so, where as the other extreme.. .the GFS wants to do so at least excuse imagined - I mean, it's like the model heard that a memo 'might' be written that allows it to do a-b-c, and before the others even got to read it.. it's already onto d-e-f .. That's sarcasm for the GFS is too fast to decay the kinematics ... probably ( tho not certain ), at the expense of it's own accuracy in this case... We'll see.. But, this - I think - explains what/why some of these more recent layouts of snow totaling/consensus is for the max out there NE PA/SE NY ... then a trailing off ( at little less climo-like for coastals storms in cold columns ) along the same axis nearing central MA ...etc... It's because the total system is losing mechanics during ... So when a major model refuses to budge, the end result will invariably demo that some vestige of "why" is evidenced - even if the model in question proves more erroneous over all, you can "see the point it was making" ? well, should that play out like that... that's the GFS' echo in the outcome... I think this is an important concept and philosophy during this era of models not actually controlling the future weather ( like a sci dystopian future lol ), but still being imperfect

Snow machine look

Suggest watching the 21-23rd period

Lol. Geez. Yeah I feel pretty confident the GFS is prematurely stretching this thing-...you know pulls the x-coordinate cuts into it velocity momentum. It’s got to borrow it from somewhere right? But reducing that mid-level momentum is definitely going to weaken that 700 mill bar surface underneath it and there we go - nooOO storm for you ONE YEAR!

Also the ambient surface pressure around this thing is a little bit higher than normal specially with that big dome sitting next door… So when you’re looking at 1000 mill bar low pressure core think 992 ~ in a more normal pressure distribution. In other words the winds may actually be stronger than is typical for a low pressure 1000 mb deep. The NAM grid has 30 knot sustained middle boundary layer flow coming into Logan with 1002mb underneath and I’m going oh -right

My guess is the 500 mb wind max dampens over top?

See… the GFS has a speed bias. It’s subtle but real. But a model that carries on with that sort of tendency would see this kind of shredding scenario at least excuse to do so - put it this way ...it’s like it “enables” its bias? I think so and I think that’s why it’s almost unable to slow that down. But we’re seeing as we’re getting closer now 60 hours out a subtle improvement; I think we’re going to see that more so going forward clicks towards the euro. I don’t know if it’s gonna go all the way to the NAM or anything like that crazy but -

Yeah GFS has been trying to speed up the rate of decay of the short wave… I’m sure you know this but most models see it as completely absorbed into the flow and losing identity all together by 48 hours leaving New England ... it’s just the GFS wants to do it right away with instant gratification-LOL

This has always been precarious… I mean that’s a foregone conclusion and built in. I’m curious what Chris ( Occeanwx. ) thinks… He mentioned this 0 z cycle as crucially losing sensitivity issues related with being fully on board for the full cycles and shedding the old signals out ...remember we only need to flip a degree or two polarword and everybody gets cashed in. A goodly bit of the storms morphology has always had the look of dependency on I ts own in situ mechanics as described and discussed at length yesterday

60105968913 15318 130430 32999395 That is NAM gridded data for Logan... ~ 10” in 6 hrs in sustained 30 kt wind at 29F Looks like 2” in the intervals right before that ... That’s as far out as the grid goes ... 60 hrs. Prolly significant more looking synoptically at the interval after ..Guessing another 4-6” by the look of it. Jesus. 12 hrs of mood flakes after. Maybe longer. Wow region transforms into deep winter

Too bad the skill isn't so hot ...because the NAVGEM at 18z trended boldly toward pan-dimensional CCB ... Capital district, to NYC to PVD to PWD to CON ...SE VT ... whole region... 8+ suggestion. And another thing that occurs to me.. .this is going to generate 25 mph gusts .. may 32 in the interior, and probably 40 at the hill tops, and coastal plain ...and if snows even an inch an hour in this profile we may have a blowing/exaggerate visibility issue

My whole thing is I feel like I'm acting in double-standard if I continue to condone bigger snow amounts... My biggest contention was the data assimilation issue but that seems atoned for now more completely and ... much to chagrins it really hasn't mattered to the GFS and in fact, the other models are trying to collapse toward it - That's not refutable... Having said that, the only thing that holds out for me is that the wind max at 500 mb is running right up and over the edge of that polar/arctic air mass vertical slope and that's likely to draw a pretty significant up glide flow of air into it, because the restoring mass cannot come from the cold side as easily - path of least resistance... warm/theta-e air climbs the slope and that's pretty much why you see the deep navy blue band in the models that have more in the way of impact - I mean there's a logic to those solutions that I think the GFS could be missing here... As far as the other guidance collapsing ..that can be explained by the dampening of the over all wave ... causing a weaker low which would mean S track...fine as a correction considering the dampening motif is sort of late to the part the last day .. day and half of runs. Be that as it may, all models including the GFS run a 70 kt 500 mb jet core right over the polar dome and that simply has to cause isentropic lift and a snow burst I think - What a cluster f!!!!! god damn I'll be glad when this headache over and we "get to" start worrying about this one ...

This whole thing is almost like a warm frontal wave.. . The QPF "walling" front load look is classic for isentropic burst, and then the CCB is weak sauce, ...followed by storm evac with almost nill backside CAA ... Thicknesses are higher behind the system than at onset - but ...still low enough that should the lagging trough and wind maxima passing underneath need-require easterly anomalies .... blah blah ongoing under-the-radar grits and flurries perhaps...

heh...not sure what you're after with this question - but I was saying I sucked relative to the countable competition ? - whatever

I may swing by there in a moment of curiosity .. but, the appeal of the game has become passe' I was dormitory champ in college ... as I had a life - clearly ... But that was like a Japanese fighting fish in the tank full of guppies... I wasn't "that" good, not really. My precog was maybe 5 or 7 moves on a good day, which was enough for that setting. I did okay online at speed chess .. but I think I capped my skill and wasn't exactly polymathic with the board and to really be a name in that world you gotta be one of those cats that walks up and down a panel of active games taking turns kicking assess of throngs of people simultaneously ... I never lost to "fool's mate" but never bothered to learn many openings..I just always did well with king or queen's pawn then night to bishop two ...and wait for the aggression of the other side to expose and oops and commence chopping them apart.

No way!

I really, really liked that "Queen's Gambit" on Netflix - well written .. I guess it was based upon an actual novel/period piece from the mid century last. The producers/directors did an uncannyingly superb job at shining on that era's decorum thru cinema - you could almost smell the carpeting and old ashtray odors in the gaudy art-deco 1960s lobby's - ya know? And the costuming and acting was sooo on point for like 1966 hubris mixed with that fake politeness from that era of America - And the chess was fun!!! My close friend and I used to hang out on Game Colony . com back in the day... Jesus that's like 18 years ago now - my god. But we were still young-ish then and would play speed chess through beer goggles until 2 .. 3 am sometimes... We always played our best game right at 3 beers... Her thing in the show was tranq's. Something about passing through that phase of inebriation ... it dulled distracting clutter from the mind, but was just before the synapses gapped too largely hahaha... Man ... we got to 2,800 hundred once with my guy, "TakeMyPoints" - it was a great way to ensure games. You'd open a room and wait ... and some 1800 Kasporavian wannabe cloaking narcissist would happen by and take the bate every time. Zomb! We ended up taking his/her points most of the time... One time ( at band camp!) the person was threatening to go to the site admins because we falsely named our selves - man, ...the idiocy you get on those sites ... beautiful -

Yeah.. more than less - sorry ..I don't mean to be priggish I just have years of internet experience and typically more the 2 back and forths for some reason results in an hour you desperatately wish you could have back - lol... It's not that I went to x y z... I happen to be right - period wave interference is a real phenomenon in fluid mechanics and when you introduce a new wave to a system of dynamics ..it changes it intrinsically - it has nothing to do with me being arrogant or having gone to Brown... I am actually humble and agreeable much of the time.. but I don't like to yield to fake news - hahaha... kidding a little

I was just looking over the UKMET and the Euro from 72 hours out to the end of their respective runs... It's funny - it reminds me how sometimes a line of awesome thunderstorms in the summer seems like it can't miss ... then, the outflow out paces the initial axis ... and triggers a new line just to your east, and the original line then starves ... you get shit - the na na na-na effect We'll probably do okay and get something for someone somewhere out of this.. .whether it's just the NYC subforum or up our way ...whatever, but, that wave careening into the MV goes out into the region S of NS long after our system has been completely negatively destroyed from the flow, and then it generates a new storm too far E to even get NS ... It's like a metaphor for thunderstorm line robbing -

the cyclone we see IS a response to the jet mechanics associated with the S/W - what you say has no logic or Meteorological/physical understanding ( then..). those jets in question are different because of the interference - so yeah..in fact, it IS causing the GFS handling the cyclone - the cyclone isn't coming from nothing - ..it's there BECAUSE of the GFS fields in the GFS - sorry... I can see this is going to aggravate you and I'll step out now ... I'll just say, you need to bone up how cyclones develop and why. What you said, bold is precisely and exactly wrong -

Not sure what you mean - what is? The lead wave nearing the upper MA there is not nearly the same size and presentation as it was days ago, and that's the point - the following wave over the MV is shortening the wave lengths and compressing the field and is a detriment and is negatively interfering - same interference pattern... may vary in details, the the essence is still the same.

Here...I'll help elucidate the point ... both really, yours and my previous re the higher degree of morphology of flow structures in these Neptunian patterns... Here is the present 12z, 60-hour GFS' 500 mb set up ... courtesy of Tropical Tidbits compared to 'Prev' going back 12 or 14 some odd clicks... note these difference back then, to what has emerged since and is being modeled on this 12z version for that particular time - pretty clear what's f*ed this up for us good and proper:

For anthropomorphic kicks and giggles ... ... in a way it would be poetic justice in the event of a GFS coup - We spent the better part of a month recently, clearly in outcry over the apparent decay in dependability of the operational Euro model.. How it 'just wasn't the same anymore' this, or it's been 'wretched' that ... I admit, I engaged in some of that myself. In fact I still argue it wasn't very good in the tropics by actual proven empirical data/verification .. Even in this thread, when the GFS was huge the other day, wasn't the Euro less leading that run? If we go back, I'm pretty sure that huge GFS solution ...what was that 7.. 8 cycles ago now, it had like 25" inches in the interior. Yeah, Saturday's 18z ...etc..etc... I think the Euro was less and I recall some posters ridiculing the Euro in that same mantra... There's always hyperbole - yes yes ...of course. But, there was more than than mere expression a month ago when/where there was palpable deriding in a culture of doubt over the Euro ... So now, we sans the GFS in outcry ...and have to eat shit and accept a the Euro because it has more - "while" the Euro ticks S... ho man - that's delicious