Typhoon Tip

Yeah, too bad that is: - the JMA - any model at 192 hours ... but, I will say... the Euro, GGEM, and this above? They are in tolerance distance for 'agreement' considering the extended. Just for fun though, if this had a 216 hour panel, that would probably be a 957 mb low E of NJ. That is absolute hyper perfect subsume scenario, with that arctic polar jet just dangling precariously while the southern stream plays tag with it.

Thing is, I agree with what Will hinted, as a general theme in/and/of awareness over the planetary hemisphere - the flow doesn't really support those uber N-S ( meridian) looks. It goes against the persistence canvas, which favors less Y and more X coordinate stretching. It's not to say things can't relax. Anomalies relative to on-going anomalies, nested ..etc.. I just think the "correction vector" - or where to look for the correction tendencies if you will, that should be pointed toward less full-latitude phasing - certainly not so early in the continent. This sort logic worked for the system prior to this one, even if it was a dynamics bust - or maybe it was the one before that ? either way, those were originally destined to Chicago and neither really went that far west..

Hmm ..funny you mentioned this - I was just gonna pop off a paragraph about how the GGEM looks like a staggard progression of the Euro's tastiness there - There could certainly be some 'useful speculation' above the background noise to watch for ... I agree, 22nd-ish ... albeit a long shot but interesting trends, and we'll wait to see what Saturday's relay off the Pacific does ( or doesn't ) for that... But the latter event "might" just have a bit of Archembualtian vibe to it - I almost wonder if we'll see this subtle +PNA handling at CPC continue to emerge over the next few days, because sometimes the deterministic solution will hint prior to the ensembles - it's rare but sometimes...

That end frame on the Euro is a prelude to something interesting on the EC... With the obvious caveat emptor in stride that we have almost no hope of that setting up that way ( lol ..), notice the heights over Florida are both less than 582, and there are larger distances opening up in the isohypses between Texas and S of Bermuda... The flow is very compressible there, and we see a lot of ejected mid stream PV gunk about ready to potentially phase with that seeder southern streamer in S TX, ...I bet that whole business would be fun -

Adding to Will's Euro ... ...that D6 is different now too.. It's showing less in the way of full-latitude N/Stream dominance resulting in a Buffalo route ... That's a "quasi" 50/50 there too - if transitive actually, if that upper MW wave were a tad weaker that would be better, because in that notion it likely rolls more E and probably does an NJ model job on the upper MA/NE regions... extrapolating - we'll see how the D7 --> makes me a liar, but this D6 doesn't strike me as a total loss in that time range ...

yeah...no sense getting into a huge re-iterative babble ...but here we go again. This is all coming off the Pac regardless of model at a low curvature, high speed amplitude pattern... which is code for not being really in the wheel-house set up for any guidance. Sampling/assimilation "almost" screwed the pooch on today's system, but we managed to hold the wave mechanics long enough to get (... fascinatingly) an isolated historic result out of seemingly less - very interesting actually.. Anyway, we'll be relaying Saturday for next Tuesday's shenanigans ... plenty of time to bring this into emergence and then f-it all up lol

We're hoping she doesn't... Sorry I don't/didn't mean to just interject that and turn this into another pandemic diversion ... man, I'm sure I share in this desire to see this just be accepted into the cultural pathways so we can cultivate new drama from new headlines ( yes...that's sardonic, but we are "sick" of this damn thing, with all due puns intended...) Yeah, no - like many aging Boomers ...they didn't live their lives with the life-style advantages we have... We don't just benefit from nutritional availability, we have science and know-how about what not to do. My f'n parents smoked for like 30 years...and ate confection isolated sweetened beverages and cherry pies, because they were proud of mid century main-stay provisions to the masses their generation put together so that those of us alive today could benefit from their mistakes as we witness their elderly decay - it's sad... They enjoyed there lives the best they could.. and now, we put our parent in the Earth for all kinds of varied reasons, ...not just the "pandimensional hysteria," and sometimes prematurely when comparing/ased on our generation(s)'s life expectancy ... So, she has other underlying pre-existing..blah blah-blah blah blah like so many... + age .. So she starts up with sudden and weird symptoms a week ago and is bed ridden as of yesterday ...and in Michigan, where they are handing out diagnosis like candies from an exploded Pinata ... she can't go to an ER/hospital because that's doom - she's definitely liable to catch it there... So she is in wait of a stressed out medical infrastructure to send a PCP that does in home stops when there are so few left available - f what a cluster f man! Meanwhile...I'm scared shitless of being orphaned for some reason - and I think it's because I'm desperately lonely and ugly and evolution has apparently slated me for discard - heh... not being totally serious...It's just that when one life's gestation goes deeper into with middle age, and they don't have certain needs fulfilled... watching the possible palliative stages of one's parent's lives unfold before them ... really hones what they are missing - especially when their mother's voice is slurring and crackling, when she's asking them, 'have you found a g-friend,' with an ounce of found cheer. you get it -

Ho man - what an epic Boxing Day mess in that GGEM cinema - ...and that is coming from a model with a consummate warm boundary layer in that range...

GGEM looks pretty sharp at 500 mb around the 22nd too - more so than the 00z ... It's also got a touch of 'Miami rule' look though, having it's PV fields slopping backward across the N gulf that way...

Sorry I haven't circled back on my '20th - 23rd' suggestion from the other day - with this thing and my Mom apparently having the C-19 ( being tested for it...) it's been a bit harrowing ... But, I still think those days are on the table - though perhaps even less obviously so as this one we rejoice in ( or not...), today. The 06z GFS would be snowing over SE sections compensating for warm ptype fetish in cold thickness/and obtuse BL thermal dynamics in falling precipitation - the other aspect with that 50 mb low trajectory other synoptic events cannot really be precluded - Now...having seen much other guidance, but the CPC PNA does show that subtle PNA rising so ... and this all hearkens back to the GEFs individual member suite from five days ago, that showed a more robust presentation over eastern N/A mid latitudes then... 12z seems to carry it too - Thing is, ...we are still in a neutral -positive overall fast flow pattern... Low curvature amplitude, but very amplified in the W-E coordinate alone.. .This is always problematic for timing and placement with this Pac assimilated waves... I mean, this one we're getting today ...was in fact, ultimately victimized by wave-space robbing as the MW ordeal is crowing and kicking it alone, and lift the flow up the E actually limits the today's wave space could have even amplified - it was a late arrival correction to the modeling over three days immediately leading ? if folks recall, and we had to scramble a bit to decide what would happen. The cold rich anomalous arctic air being place, cause today's to split open - I annotated some art work to describe this in the obs thread if anyone's curious... I see this next [admittedly, probably miss, sure ...] as still having some uncertainty where we cannot rule it out entirely as being a clip across the region... The wave mechanics end as another quasi -southern stream, and it is unclear it if gets, damped out, pulled ne into an eventual phase, or left behind... If that were not enough - the N/stream alone is precariously close enough to do an NJ model low type ... Haven't looked at the surface but the 500 mb 12z looks rather "clipper deepening" toward the 23rd.. These mechanics don't get sampled until Saturday's cycling so ... here we go again!

Better fall rates have resumed here in Ayer after our run-in with the verified albeit hinted if not wantonly ignored ( hahaha ) gap this morning... I threw this together for those who may feel jaded by this event - sometimes it helps to have the explanation...and I'm sure others may have some analytic ideas to add...

I suppose I could have said "Meteorological thesaurus free" ... otherwise, "twitisspheric" culture is doing wonders for the base-line reading/comprehension storm - yeah

I see what happened here... ah - yeah...it's pretty obvious. Sparring a lot of thesaurus work - satellite really shows it all... There is a clear mid level rotation that's moving roughly ALB-RUT- ..destined to mid Coast Maine if it gets that far before it starts to open up and lose identity atoning to the models that sold that phenomenon leading up to this... Anyway, there is clearly a lower tropospheric low pressure SE of ISP by a few clicks ( dry air seclusion is noted on hi res vis)... Meanwhile, what separates these two is unsually cold air here in the interior. It seems this system's losing mechanical punch - and the GFS ...albeit too aggressive in doing so, does get a nod for seeing this attenuation of the total wave-space mechanics leaving our skies... But the forcing was split by the polar wedge, which is too damn strong/thick - this system didn't need 9 F DPs through 300 mb of the tropospheric lower sounding, and air temps hung up at 21 F to get the job done. It was too much and as the SW come up and road over the N edge of that polar boundary's fascia wall, it didn't have the ability to cut the low level circulation through the viscus low level air... That's why this split happened... The snow/totals there in the SE are coming from a lower growth region in the sounding ( I bet ...) associated with their proximity to that low level cyclonic reflection ..probably entirely driven by 700 ( or so..) mb mechanics/ that is probably going to die off out there S of NS ... while the stuff up along the frontogen axis is purely a mid level blizzard overcoming the lower dry air... It's pretty cool to watch this happen.. I feel very confident if the mid level wind max/ DPVA trajectories were farther S along the actual polar interface/LLV thickness packing therein... you would have collocated that torsional energy with the low level and this would have been more of a 2005 idealized structure... In a sense, this is like taking the 2005 Dec event and pulling it apart/stressing and tiling it's vertical structure... which unfortunately, creates this red-headed step-child negation band from NE CT to SE NH

You're scraping your way to a meager snow-life as a pedestrian deal ... while the rich like Brian trample on the bruised backs of the labors - lol... Seriously though, this systems intensely banded nature is making the deposition layout very uneven. In a step-back larger 'physical' sense, ...take from one region, and load it into another - relative to this system's forcing, this stuff's gotta come from somewhere. I mean, we've got a 'yard-sticker' event up there in NY and frankly - was that even well handled? I'm 'pretty sure' - though didn't pay very close attention admittedly ... - that NWS offices didn't have those regions ...you know, doing that ... But who knows.. But if you take half off their totals, and half those along this pig CEO band in CNE.. and spread it more 'fairly' and ubiquitously, the system ...we're all in for 16+. It's interesting if one can disconnect disappointment and just look at it analytically actually ... Probably won't be able do that for about 9.4 years, or ironically the same total in snow inches we get in this ... gravity well ? That's something I'm wondering ...if the offset DVM imposed by a compensating standing wave is partly to blame for this rather striking systemic dearth in this zone, too -

Looks that way by a little, yes -

Yup, we urged taking the 'notching' and 'gap' work painted on QPF progs seriously and here we are - nailed that! Just eye-ballin' out of window, looks like 6-8"" here in N. Middlesex Co/Ayer. Respectable low-end result is a fair qualification at the moment. Seems rad has no interest in bringing SE here, or NW axis back S, and seeing as short range diagnostic tools don't either we're probably already flurries mode on this dawg. I can see 20" totals surround this axis. These notches are interesting. It's hard to say if it is purely coincidence of mid and low-level disparate physical mechanism, where a split then both avoiding this region - one being frontogenic and 'quasi' CSI, N and the other being lower baroclinic SE ... Or, is it that this region sits right in the core of barrier jet mechanics where the evaporation is higher..? I think like everything it is probably some percentage of both. I lean toward splitting the systemic mechanism as most culpable, however. I've looked back at some storms in history with the NESDIS totals product and you know it's fascinating ... I can see this phenomenon is not unprecedented for the region that aligns ~ central Worcester CO to interior SE NH. Not in every case .. no, and in fact, there's are times when this region's presented with the max as well.. But this region does gap in certain sets up, and is reproducible so it's probably a real phenomenon. The Boxing Day Event was an even more pronounced variation than this one... though this is going to be pretty striking at 1/2 to as much as 2/3rds less than NW and SE. Anyway, there are a lot of them that featured this interesting "dent" in the totals ... might be in an interesting sub-genre study - 21/20 S- (EDIT, actually we're suddenly closer to S here. I'm guessing fractals and chaos made a phone call to discuss the impudence of me daring to suggest only flurries the rest of the way here .. We'll see. I haven't been up red-eyed over this. But NCAR's wonderful gritty past-and-present product suggests we didn't really start gapping until after 5 or 6 am amid said region.. So it's interestingly suggestive of being in axis of that oreographic focused dry tongue of air cutting in underneath the growth region - I think it's both mechanical split and evaporation. )

it's also typically slanted too... The fronto-g band lags fallout after initiation due to lifting the parcel at a slant-wise trajectory blah blah...

it wouldn't shock me if even down there in interior/S NJ they have to go over to an advisory ... I bet they bullet nuggets in sideways rattle in undercutting cold bust - this high just can't be more instructively placed for dictating model error - ... look at Will's obs up there and it's cold in place, and integrated into back-built air mass that is endlessly supplying - when any pressure falls start occurring the coastal barrier jet will only intensify and bust everyone cold that is already in it - You're talking 12 F DP at TTN ...and it's only colder and deeper in the supply region... and judging by those wind flags, the llv barrier flow has already set up anyway - Probably a good time to point out that the lower 100 mb of the atmosphere is very difficult to resolve for even SREF meshing...

Yeah... looks like there's some question as to cold air supply in this - seems at 20/6 as an average BL precondition from EWR to BOS... we're in trouble -

Didn't stay up all night so I'm "late" to the morning shenanigans but ... I'm still seeing two aspects, one that is fun and one that is annoying ( potentially...) 1 ... CSI or 'quasi' CSI (Conv. Symmetrical Instability) still seems plausible if not likely in this situation - I didn't listen/see WCVB's morning report, but I do recall their layout later yesterday was a smidge less at "10-16" with no "+" symbol caboose ...so clearly, someone is trying to emphasize some form of local enhancement - ... (Edit.. I shortened that - it's too long of a read for this engagement so why bother - no one does or will ) 2 ... A tucking screw hole for Ray ? That stubborn notching is still being hinted in these products. From where I am, N Middlesex Co over to N. Essex there could result a relative minoring? There does seem to be a tendency in recent guidance renditions to fill that in... but it's still hinted/showing up around Worc. Co in the UKMET ... and Euro is hinting NE... It could be that said region is S of the said mid level 'frontogenic' forcing/CSI activity, while being too far NW of E MA's coastal frontal flop-side big snow signal. ..I could see like Brockton over to Framingham out along Rt 9 getting a surprisingly donut stuffing machine return from this, unrelated specifically to said mid level magic ... Other than that... these CSI/banding signals for me are quite elegantly designed, so without them this looks like a 10" thump... but if a band sets up... it's 4"/hr ?with thunder?

That’s interesting you get an impression from that like there’s some elevation dependency. Not sure that’s really what attributes to those local maxes. I mean this cold air is deep ... Valleys are cold too. Maybe it’s evaporation in a longer fall column? Huh.

Nuanced stretching still hinted and in order to do that it robs from vertical motion ...

It may in fact be noise ... because at this point, relative to what this thing has to work with, it’s got nowhere else to go but less ... I mean it’s maxing out what it has to work with already so anything else has got to deviate that direction. I don’t see how we can ask this system squeeze out more based on what she’s got going in

You know ? it's almost like if the storm were a little weaker, it would be better - hold on hold on. let me s'plain it. If it were weaker, we could still get a 6-8" band to about the Pike with 2-6" to Rt 2/SE NH... then, the wind on the back side doesn't bend/back around into an NVA subsidence and drying ... We'd probably sustain a feeble 800 mb easterly jet with all that mid level winds still troughing underneath our latitude after the event, and we'd have another 18 hours ( probably ) of currier&ives ...or even that 1.25 mi vis saw dust you sometimes get... It would prolong the wintry vibe - But it does seem like we get a moderate ( easily ) to perhaps top 20 Dec event ... that clears starlight by mid evening.

good humor but .. there is a matter of perspective. The GFS was actually the first guidance to flag this space and time as containing an event of interest... ? That does count.. The others caught onto the GFS' invention and ran to the accuracy bank with it.. leaving the GFS - so it seems.. I mean it does seem unlikely ..but this thing could still bust S-E and be a NYC/L.I. CT/RI and Cape thing ... You know, there were a couple of big storms in the 1985 thru 1990 ...back before modern refinement of modeling tech, where painful SE correction happened within 6 to 12 hours to go before event entry. Proooobably not happenin' in this day and age - no. But, this is still 3.5 to 4th period technically so ... we could bump 50 miles a run starting at 00z and suddenly the GFS is wrong for coming N - wouldn't that be an ironic kick in the nuggets. Ha... But anyway, fthe GFS was really pretty good at D9 to 11 range... It just seems for the time being that couldn't get out of it's own progressivity bias down the stretch ... Matter of perspective, if there is a boxing day wave in eastern N/A... that run counts as a ballsy call -