Typhoon Tip

Mmm not to be presumptuous in putting intent behind your question, but it 'sounds' like you're buckin' for a Long Island Express somewhere in there ... LOL The entire hemisphere could change in favor .. but at present, most leading indicators albeit modeled are only vaguely suggestive of large scale synoptic aspects that are common with that sort of entertainment. There are certain ideal modes of the atmosphere we'd like to see to get one to needle a pathway from 50 Mi E of Hatteras to EEN NH. 1 .. you want some sort of weakness or trough ...but not too excessively deep, parked in the vicinity of West Va. 2 .. some form of western-limbed NAO blocking is in the process of emerging. The flow between these too governing atmospheric modes directs whatever's near the Bahamas to turn N around the trough over WV, where/when it accelerates N but while doing so is prevented from curving E by the block downstream with the -NAO. Anyway, the NAO is neutral negative in the mean at GEFs/ CPC, while the PNA is bouncing neutral positive - it's not altogether impossible in those modes. It's probably why we are seeing pulled up N around the longitude of FL at all.. But the STR in the Atlantic now is too much and will probably direct this thing too far W ...effectively missing the key slots. The other aspect to keep in mind, there's no categorical paragons that have to be obeyed in these matters. It could go too far W of climate, but then cross Cuba's flat land aspects only losing 20 kts of momentum, before re-emerging, cutting across S Florida's equally impressive "10,000 foot mountains" before ending up moving N over the Gulf Stream east of the lina's. Oops.

Brian makes an interesting anecdotal point - whether he intends to or not, by smarmy sarcasm over preferentially sodomizing Xmas vs 4th... I mean, if one has no choice, that is - Xmas ruined Mem day ruined 4th potentially ruined All these with exceeding eerie pin point accuracy as though designated for destruction. This, during a Pandemic, too - oh they're mutually exclusive horrors... That's pretty remarkable as an achievement coming from a system of supposedly true chaos, that being a whole planetary-scaled vagarious nature of the wind and the weather it contains - the 4th should go ahead and tune up your butt just so that you can own that. amazing... But, to answer that question specifically, I think of the three, Xmas is an affectation failure, where the Mem day and 4th are actually physical in nature, in addition to affectation. Brown ground on Xmas morning doesn't stop the flow of egg nog, or Pork Fried Rice if Christianity ain't your bag...either. But, the outdoor necessity for both Mem and 4th is a requirement that is uniquely violated when it rains, so of the three - I think this offers some sort of objective criteria to justify the deepest penetration of Cosby ... ( and it ain't no 'micro-Cosby', either ) The question then becomes, of the two, Mem vs 4th ...which one's bum hurts the worse. This is an additionally intriguing question. Because, the 4th being violated in church janitor's closet is made interminably worse because Mem was already screwed. It's like the 4th is worse, because of Mem - where as if these did not happen in the same calendar year, Mem would the extensive psychoanalytic PTSD counseling. So in this sense, relative to this year's uniquely and creepy unlikely result gon' happen, the 4th is clearly the charmed winner as the death by kawabunga scenario.

I think it impressive to see this kind of structure in this region of the Atlantic, at this time of year, in the first place. I mean I suspect there's been CV TC in this region this early, before ..and probably all tropical climate months - but it's still rather rare to see such a robust long track TW succeed gestation into this kind of panache. That's a big circulation with a very coherent cyclostrophic cinema on satellite. It's moving too fast in the near term. It seems like the low level is in danger of outpacing the mid level column/stack, as at times the inner rotational axis gets really close to the western edge of deeper convection but then is saved by some flare up wrapping around. It's probably right at the boundary. You know this could be one of those systems that is tenacious - you gotta watch out for those? The ones that fight. Through it all and challenges, they get through the gauntlet of adversities - it's like an indicator for what could become of them if said adversities abandon. Look out! Hurricane Hotdog Bun slows down for any reason and that "development momentum" takes its revenge

Interesting comparing the 00z June 24 run of the Euro against the 00z July 1 day 10 ... some similarities here ... I think enough to add some credence to the repeating resonance idea - perhaps base-line return pattern.

The other aspect is half way through that trough trajectory as commented above, these models that are doing that are also dismantling/alleviated western/SW Canadian ridge heights ... dislodging that whole structure and sending it ESE; the coupled downstream trough should weaken too, but it almost seems like these steep deeply inclined trough carvers are overly conserving that trough once it is set into motion. The Euro does not do that as much - which ...I tend to think the Euro will be right. It both fits this conceptual criticism, but also...it is inside of D4 on that guidance and I believe it still owns the verification trophy in that time range - despite taking some perceptive hits over the last 2 years. Not sure the Euro being right saves much - it's still a rhea look tomorrow and early saturday no matter how we dissect it

Yeah the 06z NAM ...well, actually going back 6 cycles really since it came into its outer extension, have been hammering a warm season nor'easter for coastal sections. These runs have had a 19 to 22 kt sustain BL flow out of the NE with sheeting rains into the coast later Friday into Saturday morning. Oh, it's 54 F ... hence the summer variant. But 54 and mist wind with .15" per hour in the bucket rain rates for 24 hours after a week hosting 90 to 100, has way of exaggerating it's nastiness. Also (96+54)/2 = 75, ..sort of symbolic of nailing climate. F! Just commenting, not preaching: The trough in all guidance is unusually well sculpted at mid levels. It is coming down and closing off along a very tightly curved stream-line - almost like a "hook and latter" scenario in February, where a vortmax dives down unusually steeply through Ontario ( or east of climate trajectory), detonates a bomb SE of the Cape, and then capture ensues and foists the low NW over the top of the closing 500 mb. This NAM isn't precisely doing that, but in principle, it is - They typically happen when there is an abrupter mode change in the NAO, with sudden western limb height eruption that blocks and forces that. Not sure that is the same thing here - I don't see a hugely obvious -NAO ...but, it may not matter. Part of why that whole structure evolves that way is in part the extraordinary positive mid and U/A height anomaly over SW Canada. The down stream flow is really instructive off that, as a coupled mass-balancing - closed teleconnected system. It's a complete synoptic wave event to have the ridge where it is out there, with a coupled negative anomaly plumbing S over where it is. It is for these conceptual reasons ...there doesn't seem to be a lot of room to outright doubt some sort of deep trough. The NAM also notoriously has a NW bias in any scenario where cyclogen is plausible from off NJ to the GOM ... so I could see collapsing/ deteriorating toward less as Saturday nears. Probably will wait until tomorrow's guidance to do it, because it thinks it is winter and it is trying to gin up snow lover hard-ons to the most possible anticipation before it blue-balls 'em. Just kidding -

As lengthening history eventually benefits from an indifferent lens ... ...this may go down as yet another shimmering example of how there is American Law, and then there is justice - and ne're the the twain shall meet for those victimized.

Nothing's really changed regarding the weekend over the last two day's of guidance, not appreciably enough to deviate from a blown Fri and Sat ..melding into an escape improvment Sunday afternoon. That's the gist. Longer version: There are signals that Sunday may dawn murky, but being on the back side of an escaping deep layer closed trough with rising heights, while there is a PGF that is pointed SE being a down-slope direction, typically those scenarios result better skies and air than modeling. A partial clue to this is the Euro's convective node QPF over western NE by 18z, as the model is probably tussling with having to introduced destablization to the column, coming from sun getting through. Out of nowhere, the Euro has +20C 850 mb plume over us at D6 off this 00z run. Two days prior ... it has low 100s over S Dakota and tracing this appears to inject into the post trough roll-out synoptics by early next week and appears to be the source for this stripe of hot air out ahead of a mid week cool front - which is also up for grabs as possibly too strong.. It was hinted in the 12z yesterday, and the two cycle trend is to roll next week right back into some sort of low grade positive anomaly, but +19 or +20 C 850 mb thermal ribbon yet keeps the 2-meter only 92 at BED strikes me as a forecast in flux, and may be more than low grade - pending. Note, between the unusual 5-day heat wave ending June 10, and this most recent one, there was a sneaky 'rounding' faux heat wave in the interior of the 89.6 variety. This period of time does not show up well at the other SNE climate sites, as all three ..ORH/PVD/BOS are uniquely qualified to hide these kind of marginal garden variety heat anomalies. DY MAX MIN AVG DEP ====================== 18 85 60 73 4 19 91 69 80 11 20 89 71 80 10 21 87 69 78 8 22 87 63 75 5 Fwiw, I see next week ( 6th -10th) as possibly featuring days like those. I almost suspect that these are like our base-line, with cool and warm stressing either way as a general summer wash. There are signs that more substantive eastern ridging could returned 10+ days out. I've noticed we seem to be oscillating the hemisphere between eastern mid latitude height anomalies, then each one subsequently counterbalancing climate with negative periods, along an 8 to 10 day periodicity. This is a behavior that began back in latter half of May, and ...each warm episode brought more impacting heat. There's an upper limit to how warm these can get, but, it can get even warmer. Seems there may almost be an “air” of predictability suggestive with the above sequencing.

Well no question we’re setting a precedence for the summer. This is the third ridge event between 90 and 60 W that pushed seasonal-relative norms, seemingly recurrent on an ~ 8 to 10 day return rate ... each one impacting more - I think the aggregate ( and it goes back into May, and in fact I recall two ridge episodes back whence now I think about it the first one really didn’t deliver us any heat ) is telling more so than any one of them alone. There are signs that eastern ridging could returned 10+ July. Each one of the ridges above also was counterbalanced by negative anomaly Synoptics that ranged a week between 0 and -2 with nadir to -5 or even -7 diurnal means. Seems there may almost be an “air” of predictability about the above sequencing at a seasonal scale open at least the front side of the summer. More so than that there are hints in the Tele connectors… July is in trouble for positive anomalies

we might be setting up some training cells rt poop to the pike

decent CG along with plenty of in cloud bangin' out there here in Ayer, but the rain has been moderate at best. Seemed to squeeze through two cells here - split as usual.

Meso west doesn't have that - where's that source ? curious

Huh Didn't see this coming Bill Cosby's conviction was 'vacated' ? ... "His lawyer believes he will be released today" - CNN I was under the impression that he was damned to eternal hell as a serial rapist by the liberal press over the last five years, but .. vacated - Almost seems Onionian comically non-sequitur considering that saga. Wtf moment for today I guess. - maybe there were revelations recently in all that i wasn't paying attention to. It's CNN tho. They have a couple other articles there about the "opinion of the court" and all this other stuff but I'm peevish to put in nicely, about any "informaiton" that stems from that f'ing adjective torpedo launcher news org and don't feel like having to roll eyes at the moment.

Presently high res sat loop indicates east to ene leaning TCU turrets streeting along an axis west of ALB and the NW region of the Capital District and lower Mohawk Trail... This region - I suspect - is probably the swap out explosion axis, when the early cells in the broken line that is W-N of that region outflows/ .. and or this lead region uncaps and steals the inflow away and sort of takes over. But the original will still probably aggregate into clusters as they hit the terrain of NW-W VT

Heat wave at ORH

She claimed ..but you no longer work there, huh LOL just kidding -

I'd be curious how BOS wind direction anomalies look. I don't know of any easy sources for that specific metric - just curious how they did with E vs land-sourced wind flux anomalies during this raging orgasmic hard on to invalidate that site. LOL... just kidding but I am wondering if the lack of BDs this spring into early summer - which may be anecdotal but I almost don't recall a year with so few cold fronts move SW through the area as this one has been free from. Pretty amazing - ... But, BOS' climate is normally more absorbing of those into their numbers - cold numbers - and may be missing some of that normalcy It's hard to prove a 2 pt calibration issue.... I guess it's acquisition of time/money - do we expense to eliminate other causes in tedium science, or do we send out a tech and swap the device.

This heat we experience this week rendered to no meaning if this f'n thing out west were ever to both happen, but roll -over the top - 600 .. probably approaches 606 god "DAM" hgts there. I'll be watching for any if subtle PNA index modulations, for early signals to plausible western continental heat releases. This might be our France summer -

We/you're presently discussing physical impacts .. but the conversation reminds me: Special climate reports have elucidated a phenomenon globally: heat has demonstrated a tendency to over-perform beyond leading indicators, seemingly "synergistically" - it can be shown in the data, specific heat waves have very tall spikes the are disproportionately high, and very brief, in the y coordinate over the frame of reference which is much more modestly above normal. I think there is some blurred metaphoric ( ..perhaps physical analogy if mathematically can be shown - ) to rogue wave phenomenon in a fluid mechanics. The waves in present context deal with electromagnetism/ and thermodynamic waves, as opposed to fluid mechanics - but ... All the environmental components that ultimately plays their forcing role in the emergence of the Pac NW heat, come into "constructive interference" - this "encourages" those variables that were undesignated in the physical system to then take on momentum in favor. When this happens, the total entropy of motion and thermodynamics in a system is reduced, and the system's construction thus exceeds expectation. In this case, heat.

I wonder what the 12z actual soundings look like. Regional hi res vis loop sat coverage is impressively barren SE of a baroclinic cloud swipe over far NW/St L Seaway - there's not even early fractal CU there despite 88 to 92 F by 10:30 am. DPs may be 2 to 3 off yesterday at this time, but still in the upper 60s, but the LC level should have more fractals. also, I wonder if there is CIN/'cap' in in the region. Noted, 588 dam isohypses still runs roughtly PIT-PWM so, we may need some recession/ .. falls to commence - that could be interesting as a "release" type of initiation. Pretty cool, you see a CU, go get a soda, and by the time you get back it's a cotton ball with overshooting hot tower expanding -

Still heat-wavy out there but the DPs are 3 ( averaged..) F lower at NWS sites comparing yesterday at this time. Also, some sites +1 while others are -3, so the temperature is - on average - slightly lower than yesterday at this time. But, these variances are likely beneath anyone's sensible ability to notice - ha. I mean 91/68 or 92/72 ... it's probably meaningless. It may matter for convective thresholds/ .. instability triggers and so forth - that's what BUFKIT's for I suppose.

Could be a rare back-to-back performing convection days, tomorrow then again on Thursday -tho the storm types would be different. tomorrow is isolated discrete organizing into linear wind bombs with multi EMP tree shredders - come to think about it Kevin’s was like a preview more of it more wide spread Thursday could water board rain rates with training. Low lcl spin risk ?

yup, can see it's tiny glaciated mass - crisply in the foreground looks sharp, too

yeah I was just noticing some dark bases and crispy turrets around Rt 2 here as well.

Same ... well, not "my" station - I never replaced mine 5 years ago - don't see the point. I have like 10 stations tied into Wunder' not 2 clicks from my house and the mean of them ...typically matches the differential between FIT and ASH, or if varies ...not hugely worrisome degrees. They are all 96 to 98 as the high with 75 to 78 f'um DPs wow