Typhoon Tip

I think the overrunning rain Friday night is okay but that winter handling later in in the weekend doesn’t have much support ...

How often do BDs get so pernicious they start moving west thru the TV valley

Mmm... not as in, 'coming down the proverbial street toward America' no - But they are also biding time while maintaining an impression of global involvement, while coveting [ most likely ... ] partisan and non-cooperative intent - don't kid our selves. There is a history of that form of deception from those cultural heritages over there. That's not a problem ...for now. But their pattern of other observed behavior is suggestive of exclusionary policies toward the world. You know? building man-made islands that potentially serve as strategic pinch points in Military and/or international trade route contentions that are easy geodesic predictions. Nor is launching missiles recently that targeted, successfully, and destroyed, ( first time successfully by the way - ) their own communication satellite as a [ don't kid ourselves ] bicep demo for the rest of the techno-spoken world. It's like ... we need to play, but we know this game can't last forever, either - then what? Those activities are hard to explain otherwise. They smack as preemptive, self preservationist tactics ...in a world of increasing scarcity, that give them credit - they are planning for long before the convenience and presumptive West really seems to be taking seriously enough. I dunno.. with their particular resume of humanitarianism, historically ... it is not a giant leap to see them being blithely resolved, disconnected and detached, while sitting upon probably the last bastion of raw resources and know that the 6 billion people not a part of Chinese sovereignty...will come calling when the non-sustainability of the global population as a dilemma becomes an acute problem for the world.

Okay -

The problem here is 'null data space' Say we're faced with a infection illness that needs per capita bodies to actually infect - You cannot prove, 100% assurance, that not inoculating would result is say X numbers of casualties - in the same vein, you cannot prove 100% assurance, that the inoculating is why there are Y infection rates. See how that works ? It doesn't lend to the argument of "needing" to inoculate when in hind-site...looking at the case totals and death totals and present daily new case loads...etc...etc... we don't in fact know whether not inoculated would mean more victims - we can guess that it would ... duh, with reasonable confidence. But the space between not acting to prevent, and the end result numbers being what they are, is a gap that cannot be proven either way. Here's something to consider: "IF" there were no vaccines and a lax societal scaffolding of measures evolved to have combated this thing... that means that its mutation rate/variance potential is much greater. That really adds a kind of 'dire' prospect/spectrum of realizing horrors. The 'null space' is actually filled with possibilities in that sense...just nothing real. Who's to know or could say no, on the mutation being part of this ? No one can. Maybe in such an alternate -plausible - reality, the mutated version is a baby killer. You don't know the null space. You don't .... So, yeah, ...it's always a dumb idea to get into arguing hypotheticals because it quickly devolves into a non-winnable debate ...ultimately, evasive for the side that may be wrong - if one can even be ascertained...and on and so on... But there is an element of plausible truth to this, that letting a virus run rampant from host to host ... carries secondary and tertiary emergent scenarios that by virtue of null-space, cannot be determinantly proven one way or the other. What the vaccines may do - is protect us from an uncertainty curve that ...mmm most likely doesn't end well should the curves become reality.

The PNA at CPC gave me pause this morning... +1 isn't a warm look. However, the 'tendency' of the operational runs, Euro, GGEM and 06z GFS ... ( some lesser degree, the 00z version of the latter ), are out of phase with that... having a postive rest state SE height footprint throughout the D7-15 range. And the AO and NAO are trying to hike the index positive, too, which is also competing indicators. Now... granted, we are sort of losing the PNA credibility as a telecon correction usage turning the page into June. Also, the wave lengths ( r-wave number and identification) do actually appear more nebulous out there...so perhaps the PNA --> PNAP orientation may be a faux assumption. I you know these things don't just turn off like at neat behaved boundaries in the atmosphere. They 'smear out' of forcing ...then smear back in during October..etc... So, you can have correlations still work even in mid summer. It's just matter of how often. blah blah Anyway, said footprint and the +AO/+NAO hemisphere actually matches said SE height tendencies better. It could all lean the early gamble toward a warmer June. I haven't seen the EPS indexes.

Kidding... of course - But the gist of the mid week 'potential' is a specter that's been looming on the charts for a week now actually - I remember commenting on this literally last Wednesday. It's just interesting that these open wave scenarios seem like they are better performers - so we'll see. Heh, just think, Wiz' ... you may actually get a severe event in May like you seem to think you should, IN MAY lol

Mm hm... takes an EF4 tornado vortex up the western side of Mt Monadnock, over the bald rocky summit, and right down the other side, too - ...pretty cool, huh -

I'm just looking at the individual GEF members at the coarse rendering over at PSU ... The short version ...I wouldn't be surprised if it Sat/Sun/Mon are all just seasonally cool to mild with partly to mostly sunny days, any more than I would not be surprised if the opposite happens just because this post makes sense Longer version.. you know - 2/3rds of those 33 members don't even really have any kind of Mem -Day weekend inclement weather even there. Some of them even have a flat ridge where the operational run keeps trying to crinkle the flow into a single, one-contoured power bomb .... ugh I think the Euros notion of complete suppression is a trend that may not even be done suppressing ... - until this 12z comes in nucleating a 974 mb cat-paw nor'easter - heh.. .kidding. The models have been over selling shit weather in the mid and extended range since last October. Consummately disturbances are some half the magnitude and impact, having been eroded in signficance until in short term, compared to what they were when they first emerged out of the chaotic ether of longer range model visions. We came to bank on that - Not sure that's not doing that here.... I mean there are reasons to argue that it should be weaker and less meaningful - as snarked above, it's weak anyway. What is the GFS (GGEM) for that matter, creating all that QPF bluster out of one contour at 500 mb. Plus, all models are trying to actually lop over an anticyclonic wave-break pushing toward western Ontario with said weakness underpinned. The Euro suppression/trend seems a better fit.

I'm guessing that (bold) matches the anecdotal consensus of 'bus stop America' too. I mean ...we've said this over and over again, but nocturnal elevated lows kind of "cheats" warm enthusiasts LOL ... bootlegging the season into contention when no one is looking. I know just personal account ... it has not seemed very warm - but I am also scientifically aware of weather metrics and parameters, and keep a running tally of oddities ...most Mets and advancing enthusiasts do - nothing new. But we had 4 days 71 to 76 F afternoons, in a thickness ambience that was below 540 dm in May. sub 540 dm thickness in May, is not in and of itself that unusual. Sustaining it for 4 days is, however. But, what is even MORE unusual ...( and no one's really commenting on, which I find interesting... ), is 75 F at 534 thickness is an exceptionally rare lower troposheric to mid troposphere, coincident metric to observe. So it's like I'm perhaps bias around the 530s thickness sustained deliveries as a cold metric. But, ...obviously I know it was 75 in February and March, and April ...yet again, which cannot be argued as f-ed up heat so early. The reason I'm honing these idiosyncrasies, is because it just fits the overall weird spring this has been...

Deep range hints of an interesting heat signal - ... way out there... Kind of like the signals is the early neutrino surge in the days before LIGO detects the actual calling card gravity waves from some million light-year away event.

I think we are actually already in a climate paradigm that is "trying" to snow on June 21 - ...Oh it won't succeed. Lol... But it's tryin' I bet if it that ever happened...fuggit - call it snow in June, period, it will happen when the ensuing July NASA state of the climate publication bulletins that same June as the 2nd hottest in global history, too. It has nothing to do with the sun. Nor any current celestial mechanical nuances of Earths orientation with respect to the sun ( orbit eccentricities ). Nor is it volcanism... It's purely a circulation change, forced as an "emergent" result that is brought about by climate change - As the Hadley Cell expansion has carried on insidiously over the last 30 years, ... people need to get this straight: it doesn't necessarly mean tall heights. Although some of that may be identifiable. Increased thermal residence in the atmosphere can be expressed by velocity of geostrophic wind. The gradient has increased the westerlies wind velocities. The surplus energy is going into the mechanics of speeding of the atmosphere through that geophysical interplay. But ... in more expansive discussion, it's really because the polar domain spaces ...albeit warming the most rapidly, have a vast chasm of thermal sink to fill before total integrated gradient relaxes. When that threshold approached- incidentally - winters express a discerned tendency to have shifted N everywhere .. The next aspect that won't be understood ... is a concept in wave- mechanics known as 'non' -linearity. Those/that's when are implied forces getting 'transmitted' from the actions of one location, to another location, without really observing very readily any circuitry between the two points that directly evinces (reveals) the causal relationship. There is a non linear tendency for heights to "fold over" western N/A because of the mass- balancing from a fast spring-season Pacific. Think of it as a standing kind of "invisible" Kelvin Hemholtz wave, where the curl axis is over Quebec ... at times higher lower, left or right across eastern continental mid latitudes. Snow in May. Snow in October. It's happening right under our noses ... These weird cold plumes getting rattled around in that "super-synoptic-scale" - meaning virtual synopsis that occasionally does physically manifest... - in that eastern N/A region due to faster than normal Pacific mean flow early, and late ...spanning respective seasons. And in fact, ...counter-intuitively ... the heat in May is also related to that... for subsidiary set of complex synoptic reasons that people will just up and stop reading if I bother waste more life explaining to an empty room. Because said "gestaltic" emergent property of larger scaled behavior is also not fixed in latitude and longitude - it, in itself, repositions occasionally... such that if it is S, the tuck ends up with SE Atlantic humid/cooler flow into DCA-PHL while the "over top heat" phenomenon/frequency has been consequential... I mean there's probably all kinds of weirdness from this shit. Like the sudden increase in commercial airline intercontinental flight-speed records in the last 20 years.

Yup ... I added to that ( editing...) after the fact... " ... I suspect the model's maybe hyper sensitively environmentally aware .." It may be that it is attempting to 'see' too many limitations on heating based on NCEPs dream of having superior BL resolution- but it's like what Mike Ekster and I discussed leaning over a stairwell back in the Providence Easter BB get together days...It's like the model sees too much and it creates its own destructive interference - so to speak...

Agreed over all with implied/explicit limitations vs oddities in various guidance. NAM is weirdly cold biased for tomorrow imho - I personally don't believe the NAM is right about the T1 temp over Logan between 18z to 00z tomorrow. It's T1 ( 980 mb sigma ...about mid way up the Prudential Tower in eye-ball sense) is too cold in the FOUS grid.... given/relative to its own synoptic layout even. It appears overly conserving the 900 to surface lapsing rate from today brief cool down.. It'll be interesting to see if the NAM succeeds here... I suspect the model's maybe hyper sensitively environmentally aware of the Long Island sound? not sure tho - I was wondering/considering if the wind direction might be mixing in cold oceanic boundary layer from the S, over eastern zone as culprit. ALB is warmer at 19C and that's a red flag for this - the impetus being there is no vomit cold shelf waters upstream of that location. Labrador current condemns this climate to hell in the spring and summer. ...I really almost want to relo out of New England...the older I get, the more I resent this geo anus.

A Friday rain-out wouldn't be the worse moral-ethical thing to "suffer". Most guidance worth using are opening skies to sun, with light wind by dawn on Saturday... Cool drink of water morning vibe to the atmosphere. But +5C 850mb by Saturday afternoon, amid a N flow that is sort of d-slope, most MOS will probably be over assessing the cool complexion at this range - guaranteed. They'll be assuming a lapse mixing depth of 900 mb which is too shallow under solar max. Now, if it stayed cloudy ... different setting. It's interesting the polar jet is getting more dominating in the guidance ... it's that super synoptic "tuck" tendency f up summer again - but ironically..it's confluence big bubble no trouble us. Otherwise, would be about perfect timing for making ends meet with hydro maintenance, while not f'ing up everyone's weekend - ... Or, we can go back to the runs from two days ago that put all that mess on Sunday/Monday... I agree the GFS is not likely to succeed over the late weekend. I also think there's potential convective rain in the fore' here on Wednesday. Descent theta-e/SB CAPE, ..in a well mixed deep SW flow boundary layer with ample heating through 18z. Sending an open mid troposphere impulse with a wind max's right exit region nosing into the area may find sufficient triggers in Lake boundaries and/or hill tops over PA/NY and send some activity quickly E ... I think lapse rates may only be so-so just judging by the more modest height falls.. But 90/72 bath is high octane with even subtle height falls collocated with an approaching jet max toward 00z ... we'll see. SPC does have the eastern Lakes/OV and NE in "MRGNL" ... That smacks as the type of scenario where they wait until the morning of that day to upgrade.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible later Sunday with the primary hazard being brief locally damaging wind gusts. Greatest risk will be across Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island, including Cape Cod and the Islands.

Ho man ...helluva story. Yeah I've been alive long enough and heard this anecdotally that you cross over an awareness-numbness threshold when it comes of frost bite - if you're enduring the discomfort then it gets strangely less painful ...that's bad.

Opening up to disrespect and 'blaming the messenger' as though he/she is merely making it up ...but every home station within 5 miles of Ayer is 89 to 91 and KFIT is reporting 90 as a high... So, shaving the max at these home stations for standard 'rube calibration' puts the day's high in contention of making 90. By the way, we've been > 80% insolation here for 3 hours now despite the polish on the hi res vis imagery ...although a bit of denser band is coming over now.. Also... season's last snow finally upon us:

Are you guys diabetic ... wow - I guess dropping an oak stairwell on one's toe is a special sort of bad day ... but there is an alarming number of people just in here - 'nough to wonder if there's some genetic weather enthusiasm connective gene for black toe

It'll be an interesting route to the top temperatures around the area - see who ends up where. I looked around at post-guidance ...seems the upper level clouds ( judging by the sat presentation and loop ) are more the ceiling issue ...not mid level - not that it matters..just what I'm observing. That said, the > 500 mb RH handling was not particularly good in the guidance - some had it ..but didn't in all cycles ... so it's dubious. But here were are - Where we are is not horrible for heating. It's taxing the ability, no doubt! But the day-glow lamp sky does heat some. It may thin a little as the sounding gets warped by the sun heating cloud particles/physics over those ceiling levels... and that'll help. The wick is very primed though...doesn't take a lot of radiation input to set the temp rising. We are 80 here averaging home stations within a Ayer, and KFIT Meso west/UA is 79 ...(edit: actually 81 now) It will be tediously nerdy to see if the index finger rule of "ten after ten" can apply under a milk sky but fun for us tedious nerds haha.

Mm... at 168 - 216 hours out in time, 'big changes' is a relative phrase, I suppose - Short version: Personally, there is no way I can trust the models are capable of handling those delicate features and their evolution, through that deep period of time - . Longer version/angry rant: It can happen. But first off, in a more operations sense ...about 3/4 of the GEFs 00z individual members do not support that operational GFS's pessimism with the same dogged determination as though NCEP ( as usual by the way...) is seemingly actually parameterizing its model to rasp heights toward cold February beyond 3 days always regardless of Celestial mechanics. - tfwiw... Imho, it wouldn't take "big changes" because the features being toted along by the Euro/GGEM blend ( with the GFS along for the ride as circus clown..) are very fragile from what I'm seeing. They carry just a single closed contoured feature through a nebular gradient, and use said weak entity to impact all this wet havoc along the I-95 to corridor from roughly Jersey to Maine... Heh - I'm not sure I buy that. It just looks disproportionately violently forcing for such a weak impulse. But also the bigger coup de gras for me is that ... normal vicissitudes of chaos vs model skill? in order for the runs to maintain fragile structures out in time, requires that their skill at predicting/emerging nuance proportionally drop down to a discrete level where they are just not capable of performing. I mean, in this case ..that 570 dm single closed contour sneaking along at this range is like tethering a butterfly at the end of a thousand mile quantum thread. It's likely to have a bit of an uncertainty trajectory at the end of that string. That's why big huge historic events of any kind show up in models early, is because their physical presence in the atmosphere are that dominating; so that they can absorb chaotic influences emerging along a normal constructive and destructive sea of influences. It's getting philosophical and unlikely to be read do to word count meets with the shimmering virtuosity of Twit-western Civility ... but, I've often thought that every event that emerges in the deeper time ranges of these guidance ...all have an acceleration potential. But predicting the "destructive" nuances, culminating over time, and whether they will out-weigh the "constructive" nuances, ..dictates if the acceleration - if the system will increase or decrease its 'systemic weight' in the circulation as it nears in time. That's the gist of why these models have a theoretical skill limite - because all the math and electrons are just timber of gods voice - not that asshole's motivation. and also... what we learn in as undergrads that there really is no way to actually forecast chaos - lol

Magine if there ever were a leave it lie apocalypse ... archeologists might dig those up one distant future day ... pop one open like a Chinese Century egg ...

We’re 9 miles east of Fit along rt 2. 88 was the high yeah. Not 90 but hot enough... summer in like a wall ran around in a sweat ball swearin at missing screws and misplaced last years insolation strips but the AC’s are in and rumblin

KFIT 86/54 now Feels and smells of deep summer here. And yes ... summer air has a distinct aroma to it -