Typhoon Tip

Yeah read about that ... It's a long way from sustainable practicum - but ... know what would be funny. The planet, having been 'straining' against the GW lean for so long, ... if breakthroughs and policies all at once alleviate the cause, ..rebound or repulse may over compensate. It's like "plausible Sci Fi" ... not impossible, that compensating natural forces cause the whplash effect. ... maybe a poor metaphor: you can't just cut off stage 4 alcoholic because detox AWS can be deadly

Someone ought to do a statistical comparison between wet summers and the ensuing winters -

In what respect ... ? I just went to Tropical Tidbits and loaded up the operational ....clicked Prev 7 or 8 times and the QPF layout was fine and huge and axis of greatest essentially where it aligned - certainly not enough to be 'that' much of a distraction. I don't like the GFS model for other reasons... but, just trying to be fair.

It worked out flawlessly ... as it/posts were done in jest as snark and sarcasm ... for laughs. Two facets that routinely escape your comprehension skills as a patented, conflict oriented internet donkey honk.

Looks like the models did scary good with this thing... Not tropical Not extra tropical Something of an in-between. It had "too much" latent heat transported, and those convective sequences last night ...back building Jersey/NYC region ...where too cold, bright and expansive, with dark insidious cloud topped cores for typical convection over this region - even appeared to couch 'hot towers' ... sort of a smoking gun for something unusually tropic taking place at our latitude. Yet, there were frontal boundaries clearly in play ...no need to rehash all the evidences as to why/how. But, the super clustering of various products seemed to really work, as the blend(s) therein nailed the axis of heaviest rain where it appears to have verified at almost precision. We have brooks and streams around town here along Rt 2 in N-central Mass ...none are in flood that I have seen. Contrasting, the narrow axis of huge pummeling was very well handled in the short range by guidance; I recall commenting yesterday that there was a subtle trend therein to narrow that corridor along the southern zones. You know... some sort of hybrid meshed mess comes through with ( in theory ...) the most complex task by the modeling there can be ( for having collateral materialized physics going on...) and the models nail it ... But take it to the bank ...we're busting snow to rain , rain to snow and amounts all winter long!

You are … it expresses in SD extremeness

NAM has zero clouds low RH and light wind at 68-74 tomorrow afternoon. top 10 weather

I think it’s honing that convective band.

I dunno ... might wanna get this underway - For east of the Hudson rad keeps eating back. The heavier band extension into CT appears to modestly weaken. Probably just panic but ...heh, if this/these trends continue, may wanna change this thread title to 'Ghost of Any Impacts Thread' ...

It's the left corrections that should be more of interest ... This run continued to do so... trend -

subtle weakening trend on radar from the Hudson Valley east ...

That is now 6 hours of faux eye artifact ... ya almost wonder if there are some circumstances where structurally the core will eye-out prior to the hurricane wind threshold. We've seen it in sat and read it in official statements in the past, "...Primitive eye-like feature..." Maybe this is the primitive eye on steroids -

The ice cap is disappearing along intra centennial/decadal time scales - until this can be proven not the case, it's all just monitoring to see the magic moment where it's all gone some future Sept 3rd ...

Not seeing it ... (sev convection) Could be wrong, sure - ...but I don't believe this synoptic mechanical layout is moving the front "back" N and it's already succeeded the S.C.

Like was said this morning ...these next 6 hours might be telling as to the behavior of this. Some may get NARCAN'ed

Larry either has an eye, or archetype of one ...

It's like folks are throwing reasons out to up this to even more terrifying dystopian lust realization ... but no - this is a rain anomaly. Enjoy it for what it is. For some ... they'll flood. For others, they'll tsunamis us with reasons in posts why it wasn't as big as advertised. Lol... ( snark )

This isn't a tropical storm ... you wouldn't issue a TSW for an event that isn't a TS - If one wants to consider a high wind watch/warning... by all means. But, I agree with Ryan all the way on that guys. We have a shockingly bad realization at the surface, N-W of all coastal zones, when it comes to wind events - they are over forecast some 90% of the times. ...not sure who said what and for where...just sayn' It's really as though these wind products - in process - overturn the fluid viscosity of the static negative buoyancy factor of inversion - i.e., that can't really physically happen. All guidance clearly indicates a stable layer that only deepens when hygroscopically cooled, and the ballast wind momentum is simply not going to mix down given that synoptic awareness.

It seems like two aspects are subtly happening as we are in very short range: one, ...the axis of heaviest is trying to shift south in these higher res experimental model types; two, ... it seems while still as anomalously large in the y amt axis, the x- axis ...or areal coverage appears to be honing along a narrowing field. These may just be artifacts of model noise...I dunno. Not here to ruin anyone's dopamine delivery or nothin' ...just seems so

that's an interesting point ... lacking the encyclopedia of canned/stock shock phrases - might have to actually 'write' for a change, huh. heh, I actually wonder if an episode of "How It's Made" on The Science Channel might be an interesting/tongue-in-cheek watch ...as they go into the software and editorial tech machine of big media.

it's important to always put "as modeled" on the end of those turn of phrases and sentences. It's easy to say, ...that is assumed; we all know that. But people then don't act like they did when the rareness proves why it is rare. That is where the gap starts to widen. When ever predicting something that rare, that inherently means we are considering something that takes very fine/precarious interaction of physical components, not perturbing the delicate machinery. Simply put, it is hard to get water that big. That's why these things are so rare; they usually fail. Just for muse: Sometimes ( even ) the advancing model tech gets into a kind of parity/or uncertain principle it even sometimes seems. Where the more accurate they get, they start to permutate weird solutions. Like the ECM blown blizzard into NYC back in ... 2016? There was really no way in reality to find the reason why the virtual realm of the model's vision ended up with such a crisis in error. That one had NWS with strongly worded Blizzard Warnings clear to Newark, and I think they may have gotten 2-4" of snow fins around parked car tires and tree trunks in a breath-arresting frigid wind toting cryo miasma instead. That's my wordy memory of it anyway LOL Bottom line, bust -

Mm hm... 'as modeled,' ... but a apparently a Millennial event in the imagination of the zeitgeist doom addiction -

Media scrambling to find competing headlines that matches these gov agencies' hyperbole ... Now that's an interesting scenario, considering 2021's standardization of media ethics <-- lack thereof. Yet, they must be at a loss to compete with the likes of this, "Widespread, highly unusual, highly confident deadly and life threatening flood risk..." I'm not impugning WPC/NOAA .... NASA or SETI signals telling them for driving that risk along ... It is what it is. But, what can the headlines of CNN do to out-knee jerk their constituency that is more than a statement like that. It's an event to be at that cross roads in itself. LOL

Some more than others ... but that was a pretty significant shift left among all guidance wrt to Lar' dawg out there late mid range/extended. Another shift like that, considering also the circulation mode of the hemisphere, may result in la-la range threat for Atlantic Canada. My personal index finger rule is that a TC needs to get ~ to the 60 W longitude marker ... along or S of 20 N to have a shot much west of there, and even then, Bermuda seems to steal most. But that seems to be a 'probability ramp up' requirement to even begin considering EC shenanigans on this side of the imagination. Right now, Larry is progged by Euro GFS ....GGEM NOGEM ... to flop on the polar side of said latitude still some 500 naut miles or more E of 60 W ...but, the trend to move to this 00z mean position by some 800 of that distance is probably plenty of tell that this thing is correcting west in time. The next aspect is that the mean position needs to get to that benchmark by 96 to 120 hours. If it has not yet done so by that lead model time ...it's likely buh-bye. So, we'll see if this thing can even get to stage 1 Bun