Typhoon Tip

Up to these recent hours, Kevin. ... Maybe not "now" and going forward - course I could have said the winds "were" light ..but heh. Anyway, checking HFD/ORH ...etc not seeing wind advisory scaling right now anyway - that may change..just sayin'.

It's because the wins are light ... The old index finger rule of 22kt at 925 mb from the S in order to scour lower than 2K seemed to work pretty well to seriously f-up a lot of "poor"casts this afternoon for those of us tucked in the murky meat locker E of the Worcester Hills... It seems both this and the last were both over-assessed for wind. interesting -

It seems to me ... for now, it is more of 'period of interest' across the span - and it may last into early Jan, too. Uncertainty is at a surplus right now with discrete systems, while the orbital look is clearly a pattern change toward colder after D5 or 6. I mentioned this awhile ago but mode changes don't lend to model performance. Speedy gradient ripper flows don't, either. Here? We have both those occurring at the same time. The 20th could end up the 23rd, back to 18th, out to the 24th... and then ending up on the 19th, before it really happens on the 22nd, ... before the end of the week in the models. Could even procession through quick hit buck-shot pattern.

heh... you can't trust anything about the discrete features embedded in that flow outside of D5 for a couple of basic philosophical reasons. 1 ) pattern change; for a lot of deeper operational physics reason, mode reshuffling in the atmosphere lends to enhancing model errors/lowering confidence in any daily solution. That D6 to 12 is whopper pattern change. 2 ) gradient rich/velocity soaked ambient flow is compressing waves into the x-corrdinate ...while lengthening to conserve momentum/if losing out to the speed/shear smearing altogether. Don't need pattern change to drive enhancing error in that sort of regime, yet we got that to contend with, too. The aspect that is higher confidence is cold loading and it should be seasonal prior to Xmas ... perhaps even by next weekend.

This 18z GFS looks cold mean by the 19th! Clearly this progressive pattern is causing model performance havoc as they are consummately correcting to the next 'cog' in the flow... This big heat thing is really gone for us. 24 from now we spit a warm sector ... then knock back normal for a couple of days. I wouldn't be surprised if the gig on Thursday is delimited to a day - projecting trend is all... That layout by D9 "looks" like aft of a -EPO loading event ...yet the EPO only looks like it's neutralized. You gotta see the nuances in the flow...and what is going on out there in the EPS and GEFs mean combined, by D9+, is that the PV N of JB is low enough relative to Aleut. neutral EPO domain, to trigger a NW conveyor through the NW Territories of the Canadian shield. That's why we see a pretty good loading into the S eventually SE/Ontario by 8-10. Also, it's meaningless beyond entertainment, but that 18th thru the 21st in the run is probably a phat ice storm.

Some of us said 2 or 3 days ago that these warm domes at this time of year, ...more frequently than not, turn out to be transient warm sectors - that means, in and out ... two days or day and a half. Some times I wonder if the person who makes statements like this, "Not sure why the panic.." are in fact reflecting their own reaction ... haha. Givin you shit. Anyway, it is clear that it will be colder prior to the holidays. "Weather" that includes snow fall, who knows. Kidding aside, it was voiced that this may turn out to be transient. GFS and GGEM are in agreement for an oscillatory pattern through D8.. There is in fact two distinct warm ups. The first centered on 54 hours, give way to shallow N-door boundary settling S... and seasonality for 2 days..Then, the warm sector next Wed-Thur... depends but magnitude right now ( to me ..) looks pedestrian anomaly and not too outrageous. I think those 75 ideas sailed 2 days ago when I saw the fact that the flow's predominantly fast, progressive nature would be hostile to "locking" a pattern that anomalous, that long. The oscillatory nature is in fact more supported by the longer termed footprint hemispheric mode.

My hunch is innovation will control nature - probably with separate order dire consequences - prior any models/tech exactly recreating historical examples. Ex… controlling the weather somehow using “forced orchestrated quantum perturbation” - basically, telling the weather what to do rather than waiting around for chaos The problem with modeling is, it will never “see” modulations that have yet to spontaneously occur. That chaos factor is a hard stop. Modeling will always to some degree be at mercy to emergent properties via fractal chaos that have no roots in the prior states. Somewhere out there in the future there may be a technology that can force quantum states in real time; understanding why fractals occur is no longer necessary. until it sets off a new series of unintended destinies.

Right - December 31, 2022

One wonders if the sounding over Des Moines will be like a straight line down from that 20C ... I'm not sure the sun can input enough energy to realize the adiabat at that latitude. what a freak show - half sarcastic here, but good lord

Saw that... Tracing that back, it's coming off the plateau/elevations of old Mexico - that's a deep ingest.

Unless it’s 4th of july

the "attitude" of the 12z operational Euro sort of makes the warm up more pedestrian looking than what it had last night's release. Still a big warm lolly pop day but it's quite transient and fast to move off...and already D's 9/10 the pattern correction discussed is evident. Decent cold load already into Ontario/Quebec... It's one run. It's way out there. It is what it is... But, I've seen this sort of thing happen countless times in the active jet times of year ( such as now )...where a huge sprawling dome of warmth ends up more like transient warm sector. It's not impossible this ends up just as oversold as sometimes these lows do, too

not up our way ...But that did happen later in Novie, after the Halloween deal back in the day. And I've heard of this around S coastal peeps over the years since, too - I think it is a real floral biology response to CC, personally ... Think about basics: Carpet flora has to be ready to go at a moment's notice, or they get their sunlight subsumed by canopy species. That's just why in spring, shrubs and lawn green up first. Get a toe-hold on their nutrient quota before the pigs wake up ... Lol. But, just bearing that concept in mind, it kinda fits? If the soil temps, and the ambient air is having difficulty falling to some evolutionary trigger thresholds, this may "confuse" those species into thinking it's April 3 in the middle of mud season. I tell ya tho... definitely be interesting to check back in around D10 after we've logged 4 days of 65 to 70/ 50 for low

Clarification: Guys ( gals ) there are two distinct time intervals in question. The warm up is in tact, between ~ D5 and 10 The anticipation for a pattern change is after that period. There is no EPS reversal in question... never was. The EPS isn't backing down on the warmth. What it is doing, is introducing/emerging a thereafter pattern change, one that has both cross-guidance support in the GEFs and EPS. As well as some other observational tedium... etc. However, it should be noted that the extended stuff ( duh ) is by constraint of "extended" lower confidence -

Ahmm, is there a question in this above ?

Yup ... part of my apprehension with the MJO inclusion in all this .. I think it's competing large scale emergence' going on, which causes that sort of 'cavitation' in the wave propagation. The La Nina circulation foot-print ( whether modulated by HC expansion or not... ) is still there, as this wave is attempting to move out of the Marine continent you see there in the RMM.. It's like 'bouncing' ( conceptually ) off as it heads into inhibition as a maybe metaphor. Anyway, as the Asian signal ( growing in the EPS and GEFs ) perhaps gather's momentum out there D10, that will couple with this MJO and that creates a future state of synergistic feedback - they constructively interfere and the outcome exceeds the La Nina inhibition. Para phrasing what I just took readers through above.. But back on point, I think that's why that wave is doing that in the prognostic mean there like that. Note, it's been doing it all along, tho. It's had that curling back as it has emerged over the last week, but the verification keeps "winning" the battle and it's grown in strength anyway. Interesting...

Significant pattern change signaled - just keeping along/adding to what Will and Scott and I have been chirping about since a couple days. It got a little more coherent ( in the right direction ) over night. We see definitive height rises in the WPO region; success with that anomaly distribution change would very likely relay into the EPO domain - triggering the phase change from positive to negative there. This looks like the grears begin to turn around D8 actually ...but may take a the usual 3 to 5 days thereafter to transmit/force signaling down over the continent. This stuff is also orbital - cannot possibly get into extents of regional-concerning anomalies and so forth. But we are in the scaffolding mode of early deterministic/canvas detection for now. The winter enthusiasts should 'like what they are seeing', which is a step up from yesterday's 'pleezy weezy with sugar on top be real' In fact, looking further west over Japan, I am noticing in both the EPS and GEFs ( they agree! holy shit, huh ...) the day 10 to 15 range is plunking L/W heights deeper through the Japan Sea with rather large circumvallate - that's typically more likely related to alterations in the torque/R-wave transmitting down from Asia. In other words, this - albeit still early - pattern change detection, may be anchored hemispheric in scale. I Don't believe these notions are very La Nina supported, not by linear statistical inference with that gunk - but ... mm, as I have been yammering for years now ..that model is being disrupted by climate change/apparent climate change factors, as is being accredited in science and papers emerge. Without getting too deep - I could see an Asian carpet snap roll around the mid latitude and redistribute the R-wave anchor points ... and possibly supplant that La Nina signal which frankly ... we could get into arguments about it merely being weak-moderate in dimensions anyway. If the aforemention factors get overwhelming, bye-bye La Nina... Also, the MJO is rather impressive ... it is still not hugely clear that it will manifest a wave momentum/propagation more over the N side of the Equatorial climate routing, but ... ( hint hint ) I think it may materialize. The above looks regarding the Asian --> western Pac circulation exchange, 'supports' a Phase 7-2 strength, on the N side. It lends to the MJO being in constructive feed-back with the Asian factor ... but in destructive feed-back with the La Nina footprint. To me, the math of this larger telecon juggle works out to 2 constructive interference modes vs 1 destructive interference modes. So the weight likely favors the coupling the MJO to the Asian --> WPO connection, damping the La Nina footprint - how long ...who knows. But, you know how I feel about weak to moderate ENSO's during HC expansion anyway...lol. no but seriously

We still haven’t made climate quota for 2015 yet in some cases. Being 250% above normal that year requires the 1980s to balance that lol.

Funny … the CPC tele isn’t anywhere close to ver extreme. I’ve see that deeper. Interesting

RGEM?

Yeah..agreed - and the EPS is more robust with the NE Pacific height recovery than the GEFs by D10. The only reason why I think there is some hope for D11 -16 ... if biasing later rather than sooner we must, is because it appears there are west Pacific changes in play (maybe) leading. Usually when that happens, the GEFs have to reel by forcing and then they'll show a change more coherently at some critical threshold. The MJO ... it's dubiously contributing, but favorably nonetheless... CPC think's west Pac TC activation may take place - if we can distort the major circulation eddy with flux from these sources, the GEFS may not be seeing that yet The EPS .. not sure if that's exactly what that is, but maybe-

Not to add to the dreary tenor in here but ... Jesus. The D10+ fairy tale range of the GEFs don't really reflect any change, despite what I was mentioning earlier. As they typically do beyond D10, mean fades to that tendency for entropy ( annularity ) flow by 300 .. But, it's refusing to stop face-smacking lol... It's maintaining ghosts of the same positive anomaly nodes way out there anyway.

Oh thanks. Yeah, I'm a bit much for some people, admittedly. While others seem to like, if not appreciate my particular brand of assholier than thou - lol So are you a Meteorologist or some other in environmental sciences ...or? I mean you tucked, 'in their forecasts' in that. Most of us...well, some of us, go back a decade or more at this point of blogging this and bitching that/forum time waste... lol, kidding (well, a little :-) ) Anyway there's some familiarization among a few of us ; I just don't recognize your handle.

I'm looking forward to it my self. But, not just for the deliciously sensible appeal out of doors ...etc. We used to have a surprisingly reliable adage back in my collegiate weather lab dweeb days ... " First it gets warm, then it gets cold: Boom!" ... not always.. I mean, it didn't work out too well in 2006 - it stayed annoying for a month and then took another 10 days to agonizingly break colder. Finally got a storm - I think Valentines... In the interim ...yup, big warm anomalies in route for much of the CONUS. I would surmise greatest confidence [ for personal assault on Holiday season dignity] will be S of the 40th parallel... basically Iowa to NYC. How 'big' those anomalies register here depends on S-SE Canadian wave train. There are some indications among individual operational versions and ens, that an episode or two of confluence may send north and/or b-door bouncers in front of our entrance into the warm party like the rope handler outside the door of Studio 54. If those don't interfere ... that present EPS/ GEFs blend does hearken somewhat back to 2006 and 1999 in my mind. In both Decembers of lore were also examples of unabated S-SE ridge expansion, transporting unusual 850 mb above climo. Both those years I recall a 70F afternoon or two during -

I'm sure this has been mentioned - all do creds and salutations ... But, there is some modest NORLUN aspects about this Wed night system, where despite the models having coalesced around a surface track really too far out to be meaningful, there is a fair amount of mid level wind anomaly still moving SW-NE over us. This trough's open wave appeal has the wind momentum aloft smear back W-N ..etc. Anyway, that tends to want to add some lift to the column in my mind. SO ...I open the NAM and there it is; both the 32 and 12 km version do lay in a 6 hour stationary band of frozen QPF from roughly EEN to Logan by 50 miles either side. The 3 km is more of a smear but it does 'fill in' with it a bit. ...I mean, it's just the fact that they do - Also, as an aside and for how little it is worth, the ICON ( of bad performance ) model, has been actually trending west. I am wondering if the RGEM is liking some NORLUN/ IVT suggestion too ? Maybe that's more of a meso-beta scale phenomenon and these alternate model types do tend to have insight in those scales - unfortunately ( tho ...) about as much as they also day dream there.