Typhoon Tip

Ah ... okay - "SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ALERT ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 0945Z THU JAN 06 2022 ...CPRK DATA CENTER DISK STORAGE RECOVERY - UPDATE... -Rebuild of the data storage in College Park continues. ETR is this afternoon. Current Impacts: -WPC, OPC, and CPC's Intranet Sites and Compute farms are down, which is causing their products to be delayed and/or degraded. -FTPPRD is currently down. Shirey/SDM/NCO/NCEP" I was wondering why my go-to products were not updating... We did a study back in the 1990s/college, ... when coms -related modeling delays took place, there was - believe it or not - a rather high correlation coefficients to actually getting nailed by a storm. We thought it was a gag analysis but much to our chagrin - It was pretty remarkable... Now, obviously.. modeling as a tool assist in prognostic weather efforts, was at the time what ... 25 years old? And the internet was less reliable/redundant. Traffic on those particular channels - but we're talking DIFAX charts ( no clue what that means to present generations) Still, if there was anything on the charts that could feasibly becomes a threat aspect back then, one could almost feel good about forecasting an event based upon transmission failures.. LOL.

The NAM's 12z solution has Logan with a 9kt NE wind nearing max of this - 9 kts. Oooh... I just the more I waste life looking at this thing the more and more it is speed contaminated-robbed of life. By the way, the reason why the NAM keeps "chasing convection" is because of the flat bias to the flow immediately downstream of the S/W we've been tracking. More short wave ridge curvature in that area would conserve vorticity inward - think of it as negatively interfering those chase points, while postively interfering back west, and that's the feed-back mechanism at work.

I wonder ... I mentioned this earlier in the season, in passing ..., that it seems whenever more interpolation data is integrating grids, amplitude bias. But more so over the longer performance monitoring. We are consummately seeing big moon bombs coming over the temporal horizons out at the 'horizons' of distance time frames. And then they up more middling by the time they've come toward the shallower end of the mid ranges... interesting. Maybe this situations higher sensitivity exposes that.

Heh ... nothing was 'nailed' at 7 day lead, but I get the gesture. No but this was a pain in the ass. If it goes down like the frappe blend, I give this a C+ ... B-, but an A+ asshole storm. LOL a .. I was in fact not right about the anticipation for a better western ridge. Not sure why ... but objectively, that is so. Historically, more could ( if not "should") have happened when a PNA mode abruptly rises from -2, to +1 SD. Doing so with a well timed S/W ... what could go wrong? b .. Well for one, the western ridge isn't happening as it could ( or perhaps "should"). If so... we likely would not have suffered quite as many peregrinations over the course of this last week. More like normal painintheassitude c .. Related to that ... compression/velocity biased flows tend to narrow error latitudes. Hyper precision track this, and intensity that are needed, such that nuance effects prognostics in bigger ways. Like, we've seen at run times all of 2 deg longitude, or so much as 5 mb of intensity variance, and Framingham Mass goes from 3" or 12," ... only to have it bump east 3 by 6 mb and now their in for 2" ...while some other model blips a tiny correction the other way, and product reverses. A more typical coastal storm manifold ( according to "storm climo" if we will.. ), allows for such subtleties, and here we are not given that at D5 or even 3 ahead of this thing. It's bit of a tall order. I mean this has been sort of cruel for deterministic pistol suckers. c .. So the flow couldn't really "slow" - I put that quotes because more curved, N-S orientation to the flow would have been a way to compensate for gradient, some. Flow would still have maintained vestiges of progressivity, but that would spread things out some, too. I dunno.. this preliminarily strikes me as the same speed contamination bullshit we've been seeing as an increasing propensity since the year 2000, ...every winter. Not sure if that sort of "got in the way" - speed as a canvas would tend to offset ridge height and trough geometry ( N-S)... so maybe that can be physically shown.

Right to warnings with the red skies in morning?

He nailed the west trend this evening … seriously. I dunno. I think Forky’s alright. We’ve PMed about stuff he’s fine. As a group we just have a lot of armpit sniffers that are nervy and hyper sensitive.

Ok new rule. let’s nip the ‘coming in hot’ euphemism in the bud.

Know what’d be funny … if we had a poster lurking that works for the modeling division at NCEP and that individual was a troll

GFS so far looks like last nights 0z

Heh that might just have resulted the greatest return of likes ratio to size of post ever recorded. 12::7 … amazing

Hm. Probably not the place for it.. but it looks like the synoptic super structure of the hemisphere will tip cold at mid latitudes, from Jan 15 ... --> 20th+ ... onward to some open ended distance. The other aspect I'm liking is that all ens extended graphics, and the numerical presentations (teleon values) are bouncing the PNA from neutral to positive around 3-5 day periodicity. No more cellar PNA - the longer term circulation mode of the EAMT --> Pac doesn't really look like it would return. We can do that with a fast flow, however... but if the AO/NAO are legit negative, which they appear to be in the time frame, that period gets interesting. The AO is important WITH the NAO ... Negative NAOs in a fast flow footprint aren't really good for us. But with AO help, that's probably going to pull the EPO down and things get interesting. Of the two 'main' camps... I'd say the GEFs is most representative ... I only see the EPS to D10. But the EPS doesn't look likely to me. I have to say, I'm not sure what the scoring is the EPS general layouts, but it's been the more unstable of the two for those D8-10 means. Don't quote me ...

Chris my personal belief is that this S/W is being undermined by the poor western ridge/lax expression therein; frankly, it doesn't atone very well for a total +2 SD recovery of the PNA. Not sure why the ridge didn't get just a wee bit more of boost. I have been noticing over the last two days of models, ... as little as 3 dam growth has always accompanied the more robust/west strikes with this thing - it's that sensitive. Flat tho... and fast. Both attributes I was over sold on when starting this thread. I thought that concomitant with the western ridge being more like a g-damn +PNA arrival... the flow would also slow at least some. Neither of those is really being modeled to do so - best laid plan. As is..its truer power is perhaps hidden a bit. Models have routinely been under bellied by 120 kt 500 mb flags ... to as much as 150 at 300 at times, regardless of the low arc curvature of the trough - If that ridge in the west had done it's part, this thing would would definitely been extreme. Agree with Will's concept that this is entirely ( for now...) mechanical forcing associated with Q-v. It seems to me that low being situated on the right exit region therein, is more because there lower trop. baroclinic gradient is probably more intense in that region ... laid in place by tomorrow's CAA. Blah blah ..so as the jet noses over the M/A... But my hunch is folks need to watch the region ~ 2 deg or even 3 deg left of roughly the 534 non-hydrostatic contour. I could wonder if frontogenic forcing may bust some qpf lags

Ha well ... my "thoughts" and vestments were purely intellectual - I'm not personally 'bummed out' or whatever by these recent model scenarios. I know what you were after - the finger wagging thing.

mm I thought this storm had a reasonable chance be more prolific than that - full disclosure :/

Mm, yummy - Kentucky Fried Shittin'

It’s intriguing higher res model clusters, cross-guidance to boot. moving west and more intense, en masse. mm

And the spread is still on the west side …, incredible. Man. What are we …? 3 1/2 days

Not making any operational version judgements on performance until we are fully past vortex disintegration and subsequent uptake of the S/W ejection down stream into the denser physical sounding array. That's begins 00z and really gets covered overnight... prior to that ...perhaps unusual to be more ens mean reliant at D4 but it is what it is... and this 18z shows a fair amount of spread still on the western side of this thing, with smattering of deep solutions close enough to really wallop the eastern half

Hint, that's December 8, 7pm, 2005

You know... just gonna say it. Was keeping it to myself because ... heh, it's as if we need yet another analysis/'what if' thrown into this ambrosia .. right? But, I thought today was all good signs frankly. The evidence, I haven't yet snarked the whole board and the Trump administration to hell yet - I thought today was favorable because there is virtually no wave length room, when considering the R-wave construct from the Aleu ... all the way around to NS, that really allows this to "escape" east. It really has to turn NE leaving the coast, and that's a favorable position - the EPS looked whack and 12z frankly. The models were stretching the flow today ...perhaps too far is what it looked like to me. Now, we've seen weird things - just weight probabilities against science/experience here. Meanwhile, the overnight runs ( save the Euro admittedly ) got a little too close for comfort. We are/were still looking for the vortex split/ejection over the N/A space into this morning. Yet, some high res models were already too close to the coast for comfort. I think it would be nice to get a snowfall here. We've been patient as winter enthusiasts... I said yesterday, if the ridge amps in the west, this could dig and end up over Buffalo. I think that is unlikely at this point, granted - but ending up over Barre Falls damn and recreational park is still in the hunt... no thx - This shift east today is really against the pathway of least resistance, a bit less likely.. Should end up being a Del Mar quasi Miller B initiation, to about 73 W over the 40th - but that does still allow elasticity by a little. There are not railways in the sky -

see anything familiar ?

Epic back of moon visibility right now... I think that's conjunction with Mars too - Isn't there a wives tail about beware the back of moon portends the winter doom ? ...should be

Actually ... now that I've seen and compared the 12z 72 to this one's 66 ... a .. spending waaay too much time for sanity on a f'n NAM solution differential that is outside of 48 hours b .. these differences noted earlier on in this 18z run, don't end up being very meaningful at 500 mb ...with very little morphology if any. So, shallower eject was perhaps too minor to matter. Plus, the leading eastern Lakes S/W contention didn't seem to effect matters either. Not sure about the sfc but .. heh... losing interest in this particular, probably ultimately meaningless analysis - heh

Yeah... the shallower ejection just means it isn't getting as much feed-back from outside --> in, with it's physical nesting in the flow. The S/W itself appears to have the same wind flag velocities. Again ...it hasn't changed - the larger influential sensitivity with this ,the ridge immediately behind needs to balloon more like it did in the overnight runs and keep going ( if you want bigger drama heh ).

I'm only at 42 hours; initially it would appear destined to that - but we'll see.