Typhoon Tip

Might be interesting to challenge that motif perception ( I mean it's likely real -) with that Monday maritime plumb. It does seem ( by experience this is true, too) that it will modify off the extreme depth as the time nears, but some guidance were previous flirting with frost ..at least in Maine.. But frost or not, even getting that into the low 40s down here to Worcester definitely is a full diurnal ranged new chilly ball-game. - if so

mmm it's really more precise to consider instability as a T-storm precursor. "Heat" as an advent in and of itself is not really a prerequisite to that. In fact, our "brand of convection" ( for eye-rollin' lack of better phrase -), tends to come from having warm air suppressed SW with a NW fast flow transporting fronts that offer cloud tops rarely exceeding 30K but have more outflow wind. But there are exception and rarities that set up... EMLs sometimes ..aginst all odds, get in here and entangle with triggers. Like Worcester 1953... Or Monson in 2010. Or that weird supercell that move S from Springfield Mass through HFD in '95 with golf ball leaf stripper hail bombs. But these are exceptions to our climate. Big heat tends to actually come with big CIN... You need to set up with a high open sun heat and elevated lows that night, lending to a high launch the next day... and that's actually a stable lapse rate while high hydrostatic heights. Heat can manifest from summer sun...under an unstable lapse rate, and that is fun - but I've actually seen that more common at 75 F with towers by noon. Not from what we consider to be hot. Just sayn'

..Haha Yeah.. it's endemic to this social media/on-line engagement really. It doesn't matter what it is? [seems so] that it doesn't matter what the facet is, if it offers a new observation of any kind, ... perhaps one that conflicts with a narrative that hasn't even yet been spoken ... there seems to be a kind 'nuh uh' thing. haha

I mean ... not sure what the intent of that 'type' of statement, as it serves no qualification or distinction otherwise. We have to look at these things circumstantially in and of themselves. Example, whether it is 1995, or 2012 ...and the heat is being shunted by a NW barrier jet in July, or, it is happening now in June ... doesn't mean less value to the circumstance. all of these - and I am sure there are countless other examples... - seem to suggest there may in fact be a geo-physical limitation in getting that miasmatic type continental heat to get here - save for comparatively shorter/transient stays. I don't give it shit if it's May or September... it may be that when these huge synergistic heat domes balloon, we get curvature of the earth porked. It's worth the question -

Reminds me a little of the 1995 circumstance ... We just couldn't get the models to construct any way to get the heat NE of an ~ BUF-PHL line, during that tremendous anomaly that took place in the Corn Belt and southern Lakes region that July. NW barrier flow at mid levels.. The 1995 occurrence did not feature this sort of very deep N flow fisting due south across Quebec, but the ridge stayed anchored much in the same way. That trough -btw- still quite frankly looks oddly forced. I'm looking at the GEF individual ensemble members, and comparing them to the NAO's numerical forecast from CPC, and there really isn't a clear reason why the trough needs to physically do that - in any guidance Euro to GGEM for that matter. It doesn't fit the classic R-wave synoptic/mechanical behavior very well. With a +NAO in both the numerical curves, and ... the individual members showing negative hgt anomalies within the NAO's domain space, that actually argues for the ridge in the continental midriff to extend NE... Yet, it won't - My best surmise is still what I suspect last week, that the heat itself may be causing a huge constructive interference with the ridge, such that flow needs to physically be forced S around the astern side of it... It's an emergent property/trough more so as a result of that construction, rather than a planetary signal arriving through wave translation. A potential clue to that causality, there really isn't as much of a coherent single S/W carving into the trough ...it's really more region that materializes as a spontaneously nadir. The Euro's just filling it rather than moving it away. Etc... It's a numerical trough off/downstream the big heat dome. Speculative op-ed. Maybe we can't get these big heat waves out there to really transport - or if so...it happens extraordinarily rarely. 1995 failed. 2012 failed... Now this one. that's 30 years and the big dragon heat seems to have all caused the same thing to happen - they instantiate a NW blocking flow that limits the transport of those air masses into the NE. We've had big heat here, obviously. But it may also explain why those bigger examples were always kept comparatively briefer in residency. Interesting. Either way, historically hot June there, forces us to have a temperate one here? The heat may be even worse for DSM-ORD-DTX in a week. This is a "warm-up" heat wave. Heh. Looking beyond at the GFS extended, similar phenomenon then brings life threatening heat to the SW and California... Again, ... -PNA should not lead to +PNAP like it is selling though - so it's not likely correct. This summer's 'playing with fire'

Well... looks like we're going to nail the early call for big heat in the Corn Belt/Lakes, surmised last week. As Adv/Exc headlines cover a considerably large aspect of the contiguous U.S. ( actually..) including those area, perhaps adds some. The trek east doesn't appear ( to me..) as though it is going to happen ( at this point..), however, barring some changes - those could easily occur so not entirely sold ... but leaning away. Fine, one shouldn't actually want 101/71 conditions out side our front doors. What needs to change? It's all centered around the anomalous diving trough. It is noted that the Euro seems to teeter with backing off on that feature's depth and residency - we'll see where that goes. But yesterday I thought there was a chance that trough was partially faux. However, since, the +NAO has begun to conveniently dip in the outlook, after the fact, for 3 days, below 0 SD ... just long enough to perhaps justify that close vortex being there ... cold loading SE Canada/NE regions with October. The thing is, the -NAO blip in there appears to be the depth of the anomaly itself, pulling the EOF's down; there isn't any substantive high hgts/blocking, over-arcing latitudes, to numerically drive that nadir, otherwise. It still could be fake... I just don't like the fact that every guidance and derivative thereof that exists, has it.. LOL. So yeah... ah hell. It is what it is if it is The short is, if the vortex does normalize over the next couple of days of runs, it will expose at least the upper M/A to that mid west miasma, and bring it closer to here. Also, keep in mind...it's not all or nothing either. The trough could verify at half it's magnitude, and only stick around for day .. day and half and/or just evolve into a standard BD scenario. In this less more climate friendly scenario we get hot later on.

And then June'll come in with the 3rd or 2nd all-time hottest June in planetary history no doubt... It's become a leit motif where we're seemingly picked by the global system for cold landfill while the rest of the world parties in warm opulence -ha .. tru tho

Right - so ...either way, more than a half a year - wow

Is the NAM's selling a landphoon here ..

I mean the following is partial to my point... WPC's ext. disco "Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 252 PM EDT Sun Jun 12 2022 Valid 12Z Wed Jun 15 2022 - 12Z Sun Jun 19 2022 ...Dangerous/Record Heat over the east-central/southeastern U.S. through at least Wednesday... ...Heat likely to become established over the northern-central Plains Friday-Sunday..." They're seeing it ... I guarantee you, that red font is 'hedging' - they know it's gonna cook. How much so? Lay the ground work for future advisories. Post D5'ish that could be a bad week for the Corn Belt, Lakes and western OV. That's a SW heat release dumped into a planetary ridge leading in... The two timed together causes these headlines above. Furthering my point, the ridge is being goosed in the guidance because of the meshing/constructive interference... reiterating, then adding the Euro bias at D7 leads to me think it's wrong. I'm thinking that heat may end up a problem to NYC eventually. They are going with a cooler cut in flow type, but they admit they are uncertain whether that will work out too well, "...Uncertainty with the upper flow pattern over the Northeast at that time lowers confidence in the forecast though"

Yeeeah it's still excessive with that diving behavior along/astride the EC, though. Maybe a little less than the 00z version. The other ens (GGEM/GEF) have that, but the azymouth is not nearly as due N-->S... such that they don't have momentum/curvature to cut off such an unrealistic looking feature. Imho, those latter versions are a better fit for a neutral-positive NAO, which should support progressive nature to the over our region. I think the Euro is getting caught up in it, because one ... it likes to curve the flow as a bias in the D5-8 range ( the trough in question right smack dab in the temporal window for that). But two ... I wonder if the intense heat in the plains/western OV that's dumped into that ridge, are then enabling the Euro... Between those two factors, it ends up powerless to stop itself from such odd look. Hopefully I'm totally wrong LOL after all that logic -

It's gonna be interesting to look up toward the western Dakota region to see if a thunderstorm complex really does take off this evening...The models either are onto something, ...or they are just responding to a lot of 'numerical instability' in the set up ... using f'ing butterflies ... Is it just me or is really perfect utopian weather conditions mouth breathing boring

I tend to be effacing much of the time ... I'm gen-X; we specialize in throwing our selves under the bus in ironic self-doubt. But I have to say, my ability to arrest engagement in this forums thread and see the login counts plummet ... is a unique, and brag-able talent. lol - no one clears a room like one of my attempts at lucid discourse surrounding summer weather

As just an on-going monitoring effort for chances at tall temperatures ... maybe the week of the Solstice (18th - ~ 22nd). The operational GFS has moved considerably in favor of the erstwhile PNA/NAO modes ... which for a number of previous day's worth of runs, it was failing to do so. The ens - derived PNA has been moving into the negative index mode toward/by the end of this next week for quite some. Meanwhile the NAO is/was positive-neutral out in time. So it was a bit of a disconnect between the operational and these other techniques. We really should have seen more positive non-hydrostatic heights over the OV given that scaffolding. Yet, the operational was persisting in packing the heights and heat back W, drilling these deep climatology oblivious grapple troughs through the lower Maritime. The 'hint' that it was all bullshit was because these large scale features were acting like standing waves - I surmised it was the heat itself - in part - causing that to happen. The big SW heat expulsions get trapped in the planetary wave signal, and together that constructive interference in turn then negatively interferes with the -PNAP/+NAO hemisphere. Fascinating if your an excruciating nerd like me... Anyway, that deep maritime "fixture" may just be a faux model artifact. Seeing the last several cycles of the operational GFS "correct", now actually resembling something that fits said telecon .. is thus more appealing. Looking beyond week 1, the Euro has no interest in this line of reasoning. It, and its typically non-dispersive ens means, continue to argue for a November trough to set up down the longitude/eastern Canada/ Maritime, and then holding it there until oblivion. I still find that to be less likely. I'm either going to be proven right or wrong in all this... But if right, ... the non-hydrostatic ballooning of heights over ORD-BOS in these recent run cycles would certainly support 90+ readings over that span of continent. And given to the -PNA --> -PNAP pulsations through week 2, we run risk of timing Sonoran/SW heat releases getting injected into that synopsis. I think it is worth it to monitor this heat-related Meteorology, because recent decade(s) have shown world-wide, that heat is a real natural disaster potential. And despite the bland normalcy and spoils of splendor we lavish in over the while, lending to a kind of smug detachment from that lurking threat, ... it's a threat that's still there. We here are either "over-due" for our turn in that boat, or, we are learning that this is one part of the World that is somehow circumstantially never going to see a synergistic heat event - we'll see which is which eventually.

They won game 3 with 12 turn overs ... it wasn't the silver bullet last night. Certainly didn't help matters... If they didn't get into a 3 point ego contest they probably would be sitting with a 3-1 advantave

Ah really? I've been reading that everywhere. That, and countless other species in mass diasporas due new habitats opening up to them, and/or just the collapse of nativity leading to escape/migration to survive ...many of which have been showing up here. Ticks with deadly pathogens transporting into regions where the local fauna have very little or no native immuno-respose. Nile virus toting tiger mosquitoes. Black widows now in Massachusett, Pa and Ohio...Michigan. Just to name a short few. Wolf spiders have been around for decades. I think you have a borderline fear/anxiety disorder with spiders. LOL... subject comes up, you're the first in line with doom's day scenarios. And if one shows up in your closet, we get constant siege comparisons to something out of Lord Of The Rings. Ever see "Arachnophobia" ? You should watch that movie, then, sleep naked out in a barn in a sleeping bag you never did a sleep check before you climbed into - on a dare.

yea ...I did. wasn't gonna get into details but that's part and parcel of the total manifold of that anomaly. Thing is, the ridge amplitude later in the week looks even more ominous - I think the models are setting up a counter-balancing mass field nodal negative ( heh...lotta big words ..) over NF because of the heartland forcing. -PNAP ridge with a ginormous heat plume embedded - the two kind of syntergistically enhance one another. Down stream, the flow compensates with a deep hole. I just don't know if all that is right in its entirety... I think it can be to some extent - feedbacks are a part of any dynamic system in nature. But how much or how little; the models may be too amplified with that trough - they typically are amplified with just about everything that happens in the D6 to 10 time range, anyway - so it's intuitive based on that performance bias. You guys out in Indiana are doomed -... You may say all-time flirtations

I watched the game ... It seemed to me there were intangible dynamics going on... Maybe even ego-related. But, the Celtics relaxed ... just oh so little but enough on defense to allow Golden State to steal that win. And it was a steal on their part - though they'll be the last to think so, no doubt! They were trailing for most of that game - then something happened in the 4th Q that I feel is pretty connectable to 'maturity' as basket ballers. The Celtics seemed to get into a 3 pt shooting contest with Poole and Curry. They fell for it. They fell for the old "oh yeah - we can shoot too" game. They should have stuck to what they were doing, which was solid perimeter D with Williams and their size shutting down the interior. That should work against this adversary. They may be able to match them at some point or another in a shoot out - but they didn't need to, and getting into that mode last night (crucially) in a 3 or 4 minute window approaching mid way through the 4th, put GS in control. Idiots. It was a bad offensive decision to engage with GS, at GS's game. GS leans offense on their opponents at at all times, such that moment the D lays off they've already scored something like a 8-2 run. Boom. The Celtics relaxed just enough, GS leaned, the CS tried to do it back and couldn't hit their shots. Again...they didn't need to do that. Tatum wasn't terrible. I don't know about the 'whole stardom' aspect. Frankly, I think Brown's been better as of late.

After Tambora ...I'm sure it happened pretty frequently that summer --heh. I mean, not for not, it can happen. That said, I feel pretty strongly that a goodly amount of present modeled synoptic scaffolding for cold delivery (cinema spanning the last 5 days so far ) is a "faux" response to the huge heat anomaly getting ready to go nuclear on the Corn Belt/ Chicago region of the atmospheric/continental volume. ...wow. Firstly, I'm becoming increasingly more suspicious that the models are either deliberately designed to do so, or...this is just a weird scenario where they are normalizing what is potentially coming in that region (D5 to 9). It's probably the latter? I've noticed with big numbers heat ...the models get hung up with convective this, or butterfly farts that, seemingly even inventing any means necessary to dim the range that can be achieved. Interesting... Heat's unstable in modeling. It's fragile? An errant Cirrus plume means 94 or 101 for example. But in other large synoptic aspects, it hard to hit heat from D9 and nail it... Usually, it's off and on - but coherent - and then it has to be short term before they shed the shit antics all at once and then it's a 104. I could see that happening out there, but we'll see. But it bears relevancy to us up through the Maritime... Because ( I opined this the other day) the intensity of the SW/Sonoran release happenstance timed so perfectly into a -PNP --> +PNAP to -PNAP sea saw, is causing a huge constructive feedback in the models - whether that happens in reality is a bit of an experiment... But, in the modeling cinema, we'd be establishing a ridge over Missouri and probably arming it to PA...mid Atl... , anyway, but, with the huge heat dump into it is giving it a huge boost, and the models then buckle the mass fields down stream to make room for it - 'what goes up, must come down'. So the flow end up veering more N, grabbing these cold plumes NE of JB up there over the archipelago for Canada and drilling them to Cape Cod and the lower Martime. It's the non-linear wave function, incarnate. I don't know if that is right... But, I keep seeing about every 4th run cycle of the Euro or GFS or GGEM...they flatten the exit flow off the NE continent, and we end up with more heat out west spilling SE into the region ...with less total blunt/ cold intrusions. 12z GFS nicely elucidates ...if one uses Trop. Tidbits nice Prev. function and clicks back, you can see how this run is correcting pretty dramatically toward less ( perhaps more sanely) cold. At least through D8..9. I believe that non-sense over western NF at D10 is part of this bias wrap-sheet.

Yeah... one can have circumstances in their particular layout. I tried my hand at gardening my first couple of years living at this residence. Circumstantially, my house blocked direct sun entirely until about 9am, so it was just doable at that end of the day. But the ~200 -year old Maple I lovingly refer to as "General Sherman," looms at the western edge of the property line with it's truly massive, dense broad leaf canopy. Those first three or so years ... by 2:15 ... its shade edge was half-way across the garden spacing. By 3, the garden had disappeared entirely under the total deciduous eclipse... It was like peering into an "outdoor closet" It would actually feel notably cooler walking into the garden at 3pm. RH off the massive tree and Earth ...and micro-micro meteorology effects. But I had those 10-2 hours though... and put out some amazing plant and fruit grown. But then there was a shift.. I noticed the shade edge was by then moving across the garden closer to 1:45... two years later, 1:30... something like this. Production dropped. Heh... I wasn't going to start deforestation on a 200+ year old thriving relic over tomatoes and herbs. That'd be like taking a trophy claw off a 70-year old lobster, then throwing it back into the ocean out of 'respect'. So it doesn't have to be a cloud index issue either. I dunno, maybe this is normal soil temp and we've just spent a lot of years with above normal.

I wonder if anyone's ever speculated and thought to create a kind of index for critical hours shading. Call it the "CLOUD" index, "Crucial Latitude Obstruction Under Daylight" For gardeners, most of whom need open spaces that are unabated to the sun ... suppose it were "bad luck" cloudier between 10am and 2pm .. .even partly cloudier - doesn't even have to be completely overcast; just enough to put the Earth on a radiation diet. Yet, partly cloud may go unnoticed as even very factorable? But then cumulatively, over a few weeks of that kind of insidious attempt by nature to f-up growing season without getting caught ( muah hahaha), the soil temperature is perhaps missing some amount of crucial kinetic charging - I dunno. Maybe the lows have been bottoming out more. Despite the last 20 years of elevated nocturnal temperatures notable all over the world and empirically measured, that suddenly stops only right here this last 6 weeks. Lol

I think we're getting a large scale feed-back from the heat in the Midwest...and it's causing the flow to torque around it. Over the next 4 or so days...a weak -PNA --> PNAP sea saw to more jet/trough moving into the W in about 4 or 5 days... That induces a huge SW heat release, trapping inside the ridge downstream of that forcing - so it's a superposition of wave phenomenon and going bonkers. Heat anomalies have thermal wind components that move into a clockwise fashion per Coriolis/wind response to the vector forcing - that creates a positive feedback into the ridge, over-amplifying its power. It seems unnatural to do what they are doing over eastern Canada, drilling a due S or even SSW from west of Baffin Island all the way down to VA. And notice... that precedes the creation of a -NAO block NW of Iceland... that is a non-linear wave response where the "faux" ridge in the heartland, triggers the "faux" coupled trough over eastern Canada --> forcing the block to erupt... Should be noted, the recent NAO numerical guidance have been positive to neutral - i.e., unsupportive. I think the ridge is getting a huge feed-back - unsure if that's really going to work out that way or if it is just a model artifact? But the models seems to be lost in it.

wow - no shit... I was just waxing the splendor down here. It's completely and utterly diametric to that appeal you described. Wasn't honestly attempting to rub it. This weird little low cutting between us is really d(shits) across the area, huh -

Full disclosure ... I had less formulated visions about today ending up this way, when looking over guidance material yesterday. Heh... I thought we'd murk out until mid afternoon and struggle N of a warm front to clear before a crippled frontal mess got east...then we have sloped sun late in the day. But this? Ho man ... it's 81/67 with that deep blue you get with clear air high theta-e. Only it's not coming from a Bahama conveyor..it's interesting continental origined. Either way, ...some towers scatter about.. adding sky-scape. Amazing summer appeal, at least for the time being.