Typhoon Tip

I’m starting to wonder if the GFS’s northern stream dominant bias, it “doesn’t know what to do” if it doesn’t have a screaming northerly jet. Stalling ….

Wondering if this GFS run may actually be further west. Essentially the same thru 84 hrs …,maybe a pube west

Jesus… Not that it’s worth it to analyze but that particular storm depth and track being from southern stream origin like that? If it did exactly like that there would be 20 to 30 inches of snow from White Plains New York to Nashua New Hampshire regardless of whatever that snow tot product shows. If anything the model’s under done with QPF for one but two that’s basically historically powerful frontogen signature there - if that were ever kept track of

Entertaining run to click thru tho - it’s got that going for it. It’s doing all that with zero phasing because it’s kicking that southern stream out too far ahead… outpacing the northern stream, which is trying to come down into the backside I have no idea how to correct for this particular model I don’t really pay much attention to it

I’m wondering if this one may slow some in future cycles …

This would probably be a 12+er from PHL to PWM ... cold would be the only limiting factor - which who knows at this range.

Heh, Brooklynwx99 beat me to it - yeah, don't worry about that run.. Not sure folks are getting the message: follow the ens mean, and have fun with the op runs. Not the other way around. I mean, sometimes ...yeah, the op's can lock in? 24 hours ago they had virtually nothing... so this isn't really one of those circumstances

Looks like noise to me..

Also... because of this system's total history, by the time it is abeam of our latitude is going to be very large, relative to these NJ modeler events. If we see a closed consensus on an ensemble mean over the BM, this sort of system probably deforms out over the Capital District of eastern NY. ALSO, 5.5 really .. not D6 ... by virtue of size and totality, it's actually D4 down in the TV ... It's a long curvi-linear event, swooping deeply from the plains to capture/phase, then charge up the coast... Size starts to close the gap on lead time in that sense --> increased confidence by weight in the flow... I also would not "plan" so much for a fast mover, despite current appeal in that regard. Firstly, its size means that fast is relative, because you could take 18 hours to traverse the quadrants by virtue of space alone. Also, given to the depth of the system, and the still uncertain influence from possible -NAO flex, at 5 days lead that's plenty of time for the NAO to factor in future runs. Having the heights relaxed over Miami ( general metric...) prior to this whole ordeal, helps the slowing cause. This system, as impressive as its emerged ( rather abruptly ...even I thought it might take a day or so of cycles when I first posted about this this morning - I'm a bit awed at how quickly this exploded into reasonable consensus... ), still has an upside to it, frankly. For storm enthusiasts, you like where this sets at D5/6 lead: it has upside while already being impressive - that's a bit different, when playing the odds, then seeing perfection on a D8 chart. Then knowing it hast to survive probability gauntlet of buck-shot fractals bullets.

For now - sure

Euro has 2-4" kissing the aftermath around D10... that could evolve into deeper player, too.

Don't think we could ask for much better - that's probably right at the performance ceiling for the state of the art of the technology. lol.. seriously though. I've seen much worse at that time of range.

yeah... what

This is probably going to be blue bomb grid problem for a 50 mi wide swath wherever the coastal plain wind bends NNE, and locks 31.9 - 32.5 F under a 55 dbz water coated aggregate returns. man wow, is what that is.

Yup...and thx for the Euro cluster there - Yeah, these are really just another ens member at this range, frankly. Doesn't mean much for detailing an event that is on the "other side" of Friday's handling ... that's the other thing. It's still a wild card imho, not for how it impacts ( less is likelier ) but how it interacts with that -NAO flex going on up there next weekend..etc...etc... usual headaches --> back-logs an effect on the upstream eddy and all that fun. I mean, this thing could end up stalling - I can visualize several outcomes ... none of which are outside possibility. I'm really more impressed that this was signaled 3 or 4 days ago... laxed some in the interim, only to came back like this. It's got that history, but also fits the telecon numerics. Sometimes bigger events have so much physical "genetics" ...they're almost like recessive traits ( LOL), that they keep showing up. Then, there we are - We'll see. I think this thing's confidence as actually being there and real, leaped into higher tier like a 1990's pop star. We're in ens mode though.

We're going to have to play that factor .. modulate in as the week unfolds. Right now we have a modest -NAO that appears to be over the western limb of the domain - BUT - not so overwhelmingly so that it suppresses the storm track altogether. As an early "hunch," that it is not favoring western New England tracks - but the NAO is vagarious, often inside of weekly time spans... And it's transitive influence on how/where this or anything else that comes of it ultimately moves, is sensitive to nuances - we'll have to see. This is all made possible by Pacific flow corrections if you ask me. I mean the telecon was suggestive, and the graphics left something to be desired... they've merely come into sync now - boom.. I don't think this was random change.

I'd stick to the GEFs ens mean vs the EPS ense mean vs the GEPs ens mean, and negotiate between them for the time being. These operational runs are likely on the western edge of their clusters, and don't have to necessarily be the true track and intensity and everything else blah blah blah 100 Xs we go through this

This could actually be a huge run if that captures... The southern component in that dog 'n' poney show is moving out ahead, cyclonically rotating relative to the mid west trough dive, and that's a risky recipe for "subsume" type of phasing... I think we nailed the call that this was an early consensus happening over night and now the game may officially be afoot -

Yup... remember it vividly... I had moved from Rockport Ma., to Acton Ma ( Family relo ) the previous year. I remember the night before it struck, it was 38. Acton Mass. The air actually carried the aroma of rain, which I thought was interesting as we were headlined/warning for snow. That storm is the only storm that I ever recall before, or since, that snow parachutes like 8/10 of the time. 18" of 'em, too. The last 6 hours of it was light snow and more powdery. At the height of the storm, visibility was 1/4 mi, with giant aggregate balls going side ways in winds vaguely audible inside when gusting. I remember seeing them some times smash into pieces when they hit the wires and tree branches... It was weird and exotic, and really ... was the first, first-hand experience I had with New England winter storms ... as I was still just a three years in as newbie to New England as a young teen - western Mich is like a colder drier variant of this climate, here. It was the first storm that also matched the legends I'd been hearing about since arriving to this region at the time.

I don't mean the ZYZYGY storm as an outright analog ...just that the set up aloft remains me of a similar feed-in... Might be interesting to check out the analogs/CIPs ...once this thing is being picked up. Bearing similarity isn't really a anolog necessarily ...heh. this is Jan 2nd 1987. It shows a partial phase with mid west larger mechanical low; as it descends, it encourages the flow ( and anything in it's amber) along and astride the EC, to tip N and move in that direction. The "X" spawned a low in that vicinity and ended up pretty deep and large nearing ACK 24 hours later.

... mm, it's an early visualization and I am not sure what/whom other sources Mets really agree with this, but ... I see this storm as giant compared to the last .. A much much larger spatial layout/multi-regional impactor, which would probably be a more whole-scale east of the Appalachian cordillera contender. Just so folks are aware. It's a higher density theta-e loaded type of transport, bringing heavy rain where rains, and heavy sagging weighty snow where snows, with coastal wind/tide - pending how fast it rides up... That's really the "type" of low...

This is of course a fluid outlook at D6+ - of course - so, one aspect as we set here looking at the horizon .. the operational GFS appears it would is pretty stretched westerly outlier compared to the ens mean/spread product I posted above. Just sayn'

Confidence grows for a moderate to major, low latitude transferring Miller B/ Miller A hybrid then gets foisted up the coast as a "hook low" March 2017, 1986 'zyzygy' are examples. I have seen the 12z GFS more proficiency in phasing - yes, that's possible too. **This is a fluid outlook *However* with such a high upside I feel monitoring is necessary.. I have seen this 12z GFS ... Feel the Euro cluster probably joins suit, but pending that ... confidence remains less than medium. It's an important storm - how much impact and where, TBD. Concept history: This was suggestive several days ago and I was tempted to thread for exotic early coverage but there was/is too many moving parts at the time. System's been apparently blurred by frenzied S/W management in the various guidance, ...not to mention inherent uncertainty for that long lead -duh. But now seems to be have come back at the far end of the middle range - when have we seen that sort of behavior. Too early to characterize the event... but quick stab at it, fast moving lower latitude Miller -B/Miller A hybrid. I think this has room to amplify sooner, and track further west ... and/or slow down some, but that's about as detailed as we can be for now. The base-line circulation mode is one saturated with potential; a powder-keg merely capped by wave interference. I warned this yesterday ( and the day before...) that we are essentially playing with fire having so much volatility that is being limited to exhaust due to wave-space contention. Given just a modicum of breathing room in any modeling, and any one of these waves can become an equally handsome cyclone, with very little excuse to do so. This signal had the better appeal/timing "cadence" with the super synopsis going back three days, when it was the D9-11 ( day after that last snow event).. now is D6-8, and she's more than less coming back in the GEFs... Feel we are in the early stages ( like right at zygote but ensuing -) for the 17th emergence and that other non-GFS will probably show in the future. The 00Z GGEM actually already did in principle, although it's stretching the x-corrdinate and that takes it too far E and doesn't allow the same eventual phasing of the 06z GFS solution ( using the latter as a paragon). The 06z EPS was a positive trend from 00z, and is likely also like the GGEM ...an early consensus contribution. I was nodding when I saw post mentioning the 'interesting 06z EPS mean' for the 17. This would be a different storm than the last if it works out... The 00z GEFs numerical telecons are flagging a +1 --> -1 --> 0 modulation in the NAO over the next 10 days, the range of which is rather ideal... because anything lower and it scoots seaward underneath/suppressed. Where's earlier phases/Lakes cutters are not really in the cards at all with this. Meanwhile, the PNA aspect is in a postive mode albeit modest ..but climbing through the same period. These altogether do not represent a bad scaffolding... The NAO and the PNA are in a modest teleconnector covergence here. Of 24 of the 30 GEF's 00z members, I saw have SE U.S. to west Atl cyclogenesis, 7 of which were rather deep and far enough W. This is the cluster trying to jump back on board in my opinion. I the 12z appears to maintain, with positive trend, suggesting the member count in favor is growing. When I saw this chart and compared it to the 00z, I was sold and it's time to thread. The flow over the deep S-SE is relaxed prior to the arrival of this western ridge associated with some sort of at least transient +PNAP exertion, an exertion/aspect that I wonder may be also emerging - i.e., more.

ICON or whatever... it's adding in the direction of expectation I outlined this morning/last page...

Thread likely/pending ... for low confidence, *however* with such a high upside I feel monitoring is necessary.. May wait on the 12z ens. I'll probably cut and paste content from this post and cobble some annotated charts The problem is the excessive to the extent/ saturating the base-line with potential; a powder-keg merely capped by wave interference. I warned this yesterday ( and the day before...) that we are essentially playing with fair with so much volatility, that is by convenience of wave-space contention being preventative. Given just a modicum of breathing room in any modeling, and any one of these waves can become an equally handsome cyclone with very little excuse to do so. The 00z/06z oper. GFS opened the window and let the air in for the 17th Note, this signal had the better appeal/timing "cadence" with the super synopsis going back three days, when it was the D9-11 ( day after that last snow event).. now is D6-8, and she's more than less coming back in the GEFs... Feel we are in the early stages ( like right at zygote but ensuing -) for the 17th emergence and that other non-GFS will probably show in the future. The 00Z GGEM actually already did in principle, although it's stretching the x-corrdinate and that takes it too far E and doesn't allow the same eventual phasing of the 06z GFS solution ( using the latter as a paragon). I would not have posted this post here if it were not for your mentioning the 06z EPS - which is thus a positive trend from 00z, and is likely also like the GGEM ...an early consensus. I was nodding when I saw your post. This would be a different storm than the last if it works out... The 00z GEFs numerical telecons are flagging a +1 --> -1 --> 0 modulation in the NAO over the next 10 days, the range of which is rather ideal... because anything lower and it scoots seaward underneath/suppressed. Where's earlier phases/Lakes cutters are not really in the cards at all with this. Meanwhile, the PNA aspect is in a postive mode albeit modest ..but climbing through the same period. These altogether do not represent a bad scaffolding... The NAO and the PNA are in a modest teleconnector covergence here. 24 of the 30 GEF members I saw have SE U.S. to west Atl cyclogenesis, 7 of which were rather deep and far enough W. This is the cluster trying to jump back on board in my opinion. The flow over the deep S-SE is relaxed prior to the arrival of this western ridge associated with some sort of at least transient +PNAP exertion, an exertion/aspect that I wonder may be also emerging - i.e., more.