Typhoon Tip

Hey George … it’s a little concerning that the NAVGEM has a 979mb low in Cape Cod Bay … what’s your opinion the impact -

Plus… It technically hasn’t “chased” GFS Kev keep in mind they run at the same time but we don’t get to see the euro until it’s a couple hours or more later. That might give the illusion of it running or chasing it rather but it really just kind of moving back-and-forth in tandem

In theory .. yeah. It's just beginning as the occlusion axis is riding up the coastal plain... If it started 4 hours sooner, than the conveyor Brian posted gets trunked and the 700 mb mechanics continue to dump thru an isothermal column.. probably ORH-PSM if that were to happen - from 4 day out no less - hahahaha. just sayn'

wow is that close .. there at hint of closing off the 850 mb - what's interesting is that it's doing that slightly more so than the 06z, which is was a tick or two colder sort of ancestral run to this one's look. Anyway, ... obviously should that happen just a little more physically realized, what ever happens NW stays that way.

It f'n better snow outta that 18z run cuz if the rest of that thing's right we press on from that storm through a riveting 300 hours of repetitive dry arctic fropas and soothingly warm tundra blows

April Fools Storm 1997 was a bit of a bust ( positive) but it was actually pretty well sniffed out too. I remember Harvey on air motioning some 5 days prior while saying, " should this feature pass under our latitude ..." Well, guess what happened. But, Barry Burbank the day before was calling for 6-12" - which is well above climate as it is, anyway. Yeah... I think 30" is of blue cake is probably a bit more than most expected, particularly when metro west of Boston reported something like 6 hours of lightning and thunder with it. So have to technically call that a positive bust - but I was up at UMass still and there was back office discussion about the ominous look of that mo-fo'

The era of that kind of positive bust is probably behind us ... (at some point we have to beginning weighting the AI, particularly < 4.5 days) but man, would now ever be a good time for that! Have it bump from TTN to the arm of the Cape the day before. Talking 4" --> PL/cold rain vs 4" + 18" I mean there's two types of positive bust. There's the utter blind side. But, then there's the arrogant fixation by the conceit of technology and belief, going straight to hell.. haha. An example of that would be the forecast for a minoring dust in obscurity that was set to describe December 23 1997. The then, "ETA" was the go-to premiere meso model - possibly because it was the only meso model. Oh wait...or right, I think the NGM was around then still. Anyway, in the evening of that day, digging out of 18" of snow ... 90% of which fell in 3.5 hours, said dust verified as a comet impact in history. I mean, literally ... no headlines, to society stoppage in 6 hours of wtf-titude. making me laugh thinking back.. oy. Yeah, probably the tech is to the point where that sort of thing is a thing of the past.

God ...was just scanning that for ...where I might have slipped a monster ( heh ) in there... anyway, why did I write this - ugh "...I think this has room to amplify sooner, and track further west ..." My fault! sorry guys. sonovabitch

Y-hah, kinda like, "'Scuse me while I kiss this guy"

NO shit - something in 2012 hot syringed testicles? ..haha 2012 man. ho man. That is bar none, numero uno ( like saying it in another language makes it even more so, right -) the worst f Jan -Mar in history. The only thing that ( sorta ) redeems that Turkish prison sentence of a winter is that October 30 waste of clown space storm. As amazing as that was, any winter enthusiasts out there NOT willing to trade that p.o.s. in for a better January two.5 months later? 'Course, I'm a little biased against the Octo-bomb because I have a personal fetish about NOT losing power for any reason - but that's just me. Which I did for a week. What made that rub particularly chaffing is that since I am the last person an a 10,000 service trunk, I was of course by dumb f'n CD luck, right next door to a trunk that did not lose power that long. I spent 4 day in dark cold, while musics and light, and the aromas of dinner cooked within plain sight. I will never forgive 2011-2012 for weather. But... on a personal note ( LOL ) I was able to play disk golf every weekend Jan and Feb, in cargo shorts and light sweat shirt. Open fairways ... not bugs... now over grown prickly shit in the fields. Lots of light wind.. It was a utopia for that sport.

Yeah ...the reference to those dates wasn't in deference/context that way - ..interesting interpretation, tho - It was written in black and white 'medium to major,' first, in bold, and that impact was 'TBD' The references to those dates was not a context for assigning to this one, those as analogs. No - Like I said.. .whatever - I think the bigger aspect of interest is that those sentiments originally put forth are still where we are at some 70 page later - that's funny.

When was it touted a monster? I dunno - the thread was headlined with these sentiments, "Confidence grows for a moderate to major, low latitude transferring Miller B/ Miller A hybrid then gets foisted up the coast as a "hook low" ... *However* with such a high upside I feel monitoring is necessary.. ... confidence remains less than medium. It's an important storm - how much impact and where, TBD. " Not sure that confers 'monster' but whatever. Frankly nothing's really changed LOL... Think about it, I mean... doesn't that rather aptly describe where we are at right now, still at 96 to 108 hours lead? It's like NBA basketball games... Watch the first 5 minutes and the last 5 minutes - that's all one needs. 'Course, that takes the d-drip journey away, just sayn'.

Funny you mentioned this dude... I have been scratching my head over this ever since it started doing that about 10 minutes after we made this f'n thread. The models insistence with that behavior, jesus... it's like there's some sort of atmospheric magnet with neutron star Gaussian pull, anchored over Utica NY. This storm could be on Mars, the models would find a way to put it west of Albany.

Actually ... common function of vernacular aside, I don't ... because at a glance, LBSW looks like LGBTQ to me, and may as well be a derivative of the movement for all I know because I don't know what what the former means - We make up abbreviations in here that requires a bit of fuller on-board life-saddling commitment to keep track of - I'm not a candidate for linguist.

It's been showing up for quite awhile, and last night the numerical representation of the telecon likes the 19th -24th. There is a bit of flex in the PNA with modestly neg NAO tending modulate back up - It's beyond the free EPS sites vision though, and the individual GEF members are all over the map. Icon hints strongly fwiw Lol

It's kind of an odd deep/total layer evolution... It's attempting to capture and stall for 3 hours over Mt Wachusett... Don't normally see system perform pirouette at that location but the whole of this thing has got its peccadillo

For me there are three main deterministic hurdles: - correctly sampling the current S/W in the N stream passing SE through Alberta - correctly sampling the S/W currently just beginning to nose in off the Washington/Oregon coast(s). - the proficiency of phase ( amount) once they are both ejected into the L/W ... east of 100W through the synopsis Little longer observations: That last point is dependent to some degree on the first two. The larger hemispheric manifold/instruction is that the western +PNAP is subtly increasing, and that is helping to bottom out the trough over eastern mid latitudes. phase roficiency: at one end, full phase. I visualize that resulting in slowing down, deep, massive and powerful. This is the less likely, but not 0 chance. The flow is too fast and that disrupts the kinematic "fusion" if you will. A bigger western ridge expression would tend to start that process - I can't find a run anywhere that's doing that. But I suppose there's time. in the middle you get partial phase. This ... This is [apparently] the preferred idea of the EPS/ Euro. Basically, the lead is what it is ...but the NP S/W borrows in from the NW, and that tips the flow N along the EC ...and anything in said flow goes with it. So in that sense, it is "rotating" around the stress of the S/W's approach ( which is physically keyed into the planetary wave space so is thus having more proxy - ). at the other end, no phase. This would mean the S/W approaching acts more like a 'kicker'. The lead wave gets ejected probably more NE as opposed to N or NNE. It's hard to know where along that spectrum this will be.. but I suspect the large circulation is more confident, ... the interactions within will become so probably when this is more 84 ... 72 lead.

I'm a bit behind, Will ... but for me, the last 3-cycle consolidation trend ( lesser and lesser spread members) of the GEFs mean, is a red flag.

I think he means me, my name is John, and I have mentioned the facets heh... I'm just modestly concerned about this tendency for Pac mechanics to be "over-assessed." There's been a kind of leitmotif over recent years of modeling frankly, sometimes more obvious, other times more nuanced. I don't really think it is done on purpose - that part has been tongue-in-cheek. But rather dependable, one can anticipate losing kinematic ("might") once a coverage has moved from 168 to 72 or so hours. In this case, that matters. The ridge is too far west of climo, but...prooobably that is compensated by the speed of the flow - tending to stretch x-coordinate. I am noticing the original conception of the GFS to phase is out the window. These two waves end up not phasing. That is very important, because as is, the lead is quite powerful, but if the aft approach "kicks" more...it ends up driving that lead toward the NY Bit and not allowing it to move/capture a low toward Upstate NY. This above idea is nicely exemplified by the 06z GFS, with ~ 10 or 15 kts of additional wind momentum in the NP at 84 hours, and I don't really believe the "hints" more coastal commitment are in jest.

Good morning.. back here on page 47 - Obviously the 06z oper. GFS was intriguing, though still needs work - I'm sure that run's already been through the gauntlet so won't press. But noting the 850 mb 0C no long penetrates much NW of Willamantic CT to Logon. Obviously there hints this may be a changing coastal ( models) evolution tho - Fast flow for the loss ..ugh. After all this time and consternation, only 1/3 of the players is now sampled (in theory) but who's doing sounding over the B.C. cordillera. The other aspect are still not, as of 06z, covered in the more physically realized. I am not sure if this factor means as much as it used to, frankly, but.. I am also not convinced that it means nothing at all - particularly in a scenario that appears to be more sensitive than a bum tooth ... Nuances meaning the difference in commitment to coastal, vs climate "iffy" track to ALB. CIP, the S/W careening through the NP at 84 hours is now 10kts more mightily doing so in this 06z GFS run. And it appears to be "kicking" the lead (nesting our storm) more E in total deep layer kinematic positioning. That is triggering deeper convection explosion ( probably ...) and this 06z attempt at surface relo toward ACK may be a response to that. But the situation is in flux I feel, and any more east bump of the whole-scale structuring/synopsis through that 84-108 period here in the E, will result in a fuller commitment to more of a GEF -like position.

This doesn’t strike me as an all at once correction Southeast type of scenario -,it’s probably gonna take about three cycles and it’s not clear how much correction that’s going to be total. During the day tomorrow we’re going to be relaying the first short wave of this duality and see you there, off the Pacific… Then the Nstream component comes in 54 hours out approximately. Again plus there may be modulations going on with that whole negative NAO and stuff going on over the weekend

500mb subtly S-E of the the previous run’s position. Not reflected in the SFC for longitude but slightly so in latitude.

Heh. Like I said a couple pgs back I’m pretty sure the west over compensating likely ended and we start the collapse SE. there’s lots of theoretical/physical arguments why that should be the case etc etc. But we’ll see -it may take some time to get on board

I get event fatigue from time to time …

We’ve likely seen the farthest extent of the west “overcompensation” and ensuing will be a collapse back SE. How much … ? I think the low-level cold air that’s being delivered on Saturday is probably not getting properly resolved at this particular range in the models. So whatever happens I would probably stall any kind of warm sector intrusion - that would be my educated guess for 132 hour system. Whether that means holding on to snow longer holding on a mix longer going over to some ice or just being a 32° cold rain after front white wall, notwithstanding The other area of sensitivity for me revolves around what is going on with the NAO in Friday system as wave brakes and it sits there I don’t understand how that thing is going to pull out to the north that readily if the NAO really does flip signs, which is what the models have been selling the last day Plus the things I talked about earlier in the day regarding what’s really going to get relayed off the Pacific Ocean starting tomorrow and then again at 60 hours. Those are some leap out reasons why I said I am by no way sold on any of those positions in New York State