Typhoon Tip

Those are important differences between those two guidance at 90 hours quite significant actually in terms of how they’re going to drive the surface. The CMC closes the 500mb sfc off at around 90 hours overlapping Long Island… GFS’s is still wide open at that point

Yes… Well aware. Unfortunately those “subtle” variances are utterly crucial and make for huge difference with a storm that has this kind of power. It doesn’t appear to be a proportional relationship either, just looking at this from orbit. If the GFS is 10% inefficient we seem to get really big difference in the northwest position blah blah feedback physical processes

Imho these GFS runs over the last two days through this one tonight at 0Z…are clearly inconsistently consuming the southern stream, and it’s bearing upon what happens downstream off the eastern seaboard I don’t think I can look at this any other way from a meteorological perspective.

Very poor continuity with southern contribution. Can’t even really see any kind of trend with that aspect. also seeing some issues with N stream too, tho those are more subtle. It’s trying to kick.

Nah … there’s no way this is a rainer

Historic

I haven’t been paying attention to that specifically. In this situation I don’t have a lot of faith in the mid. I think there’s probably a data sampling issue going on and those intervals are going to be suspect first

It senses to me as thought entire product systemically is dropping/..or perhaps 'missing' some 20% of the momentum of prior cycles - cross guidance too. It's just paltrier ... NCEP cited this notion about a strong S/W mechanical presence sending s/w ridging out ahead, to where it constructively interferes with the Atlantic L/W ridging... (Euro), and so ... ( and I agree with them ) missing 20% leads to an an early escape - it's interesting the oper. version performed as it did. It appears be western member now... Man.. this model has for days really been attempting least plausible reason it can to diminish the specter of this thing LOL... I guess NCEP's had it. They're flying reco I hear ? Pretty amazing... they must feel as we do that the larger scale hemisphere is anchoring this system, so it's "worth it" - I dunno.

It’s better overall from what I’m seeing but it suppressing you ur way. it’s inched west overall. Deeper QPF into SE zones down thugs way etc dont sweat it though. This model’s in mid trend … I’m suspecting 00z my be interesting.

This is not a “warm core” cyclogenesis or maintenance stages either, unless it can be specifically analyzed that way … etc “Warm seclusion” is a separate phenomenon that is not that uncommon with RI cyclones This is a baroclinic system; different thermodynamic engine to barotropic

Not literally the same thing. Different mechanisms giving an homaged appeal.

We were noticing that in the more amped solutions from two days ago … it’s like a mock PRE in front of a cane

I think what started the obsessing was that a post was made a while ago … I think during the lead up to the last event, where a correlation was advanced describing Miller Bs as being better snow producers … So of course naturally that means comfort seeking armpit sniffing frantically making sure it’s mor B than A …

Wait’ll the NAM gets the memo on this thing in nearer terms. You’ll be shoveling 45” off the charts to find the state lines …

Fifth … 1978 isn’t really good total meteorological analog ? when did that come up and why/how?

I would also predicted this is going to be a data overflow and information saturation to the point of almost apoplexy over the next ensuing days … We’re just gonna have to roll back from their desks lol

This ...really "maybe" entering unique historical value? I don't recall ever seeing a 950 to 960 mb low stall - if does so..- or even hesitate where the 'super blend' tracks. Granted the same conceptualized blend isn't that deep, but with the operational Euro recency, and now this violent trend by the GGEM... Not to mention the numerous EPS members just as drilled... About the only thing more arresting than that is the contemplation of this still having room to trend .... more. I mean if the former say... 958 mb is reached around 72W/40N, and behaviorally it stalls or slows.. I can't find a low that deep, that did that, there. And this could still become more. Really ?

Um... okay - we can go with that I guess lol

GGEM ideally would be a little closer... The frontogen would clip HFD -BOS that way, and then CCB mechanics plugging the undercarriage super-imposing the UVM lift, would be double trouble HUGE fall rates of whatever is falling...But as is, the the former appears too far SE. But, you know ... get real, right? I mean, it's so powerful the CCB stuff is good for 15+ in that region anyway. I know we have zealots that feel betrayed at 15+" in a wind so violent it's a milky miasma out side, but to me that is a memorable journey.

Wait! you did that too? omh ..hahahahaha Dude, my entire 9th grade math notebook was hand drawn weather charts, sequencing over three days, the evolution of completely unrealistic fantasy storm evolutions... I mean, I had one sequence where NYC-PWM got a 1,000" over a month of the same storm that kept forming new waves W of Bermuda, that calved NW and "re-bombed" the same Georg01ian storm... Man, that got me through some of the most grueling Quadratic sermons droned. I actually got more sophisticated by sophomore year, and they would tamer more realistic bombs but .. but still straining credibility of course - I mean it's got to at least push convention. I was like Ralph Phillips the weather dreamer

Semantics but.. shouldn't scale/size matter for those definitions? I mean, the "E" and the "C" stand for East and Coast. If this stalls and donut stuffs Boston for 30" and NYC for 2" ...is that a HECS?

That was April 1997

Agreed ..that is extrapolating more Euro-esque imho

That's what I'm noticing most over night about modeling ... For the general reader hot take ... First, wrt the operational versions: yeah, they're ranging between frustrating to glory-ahs. I suspect more of that behavior is normal for D5.5 than it seems the expectation knows. Yet, large systems tend to signify earlier in guidance - it is almost as though we are getting a handicapped version of this latter phenomenon. Just as conjecture, it seems as though these souped up party versions are "too much" so, tuned to pick up aspects, many of which are unnecessary and fractal the processing... Supposition, but as such they blow out bad continuity. Anyway, so what I noticed over night is that regardless of whether a given ens mean went east en masse, or west, however much, the spreads are always smearing like that above. I also have a hypothesis about that 'en masse movement' thing. When it does that, that strikes me more as less having to do with specific member perturbation, and more to do with data going into grid population - because all members are ( obviously you/we know this...) not propagating this crap from a initial vacuum of information. They all get the same milk; they're all going to spit it out if started to sour - so to speak. I tried to spend popsicle headache time early this morning ...tracing the S/W material back in time among the Euro, GFS and GGEM... They are all puking a crucial mechanical pieces out of that morass train-wreck sub-synoptic vorticities aggregating what looks like bursting open SPV over the NE Pacific ... Huge gambles on that stuff...beginning 24 to 36 hour from last night's 00z initialization (so that's tonight onward). Many have expressed this as a 'possible' Wednesday for better consensus. There's two intervals for consensus: 00z on the 24th for me began the consensus for getting the f'er to be real ( kind of an important first step, huh - LOL)... maybe we can start to have more confidence in which regions, MA to Maine, get what impacts the extents.

wow, good call for a change heh