Typhoon Tip

Hey, no argument from me yeah. I think I said this whole ordeal seemed over cooked to me the other day. I was never too keen on it so ...ah well. It is what it is.

Heh... some percentage of this event turned out to be ANA duping tho - It's more of a hybrid ANA/ cyclone development sort of smear, and the cold came in and the rad dried out - that aspect behavior is the eye color of the ANA trait

Interesting how this is flipping here... Seems to be transitioning right to medium aggregates/uniform... and skipping the golf ball phase but it may yet -

White rain and PLs now in Ayer... Just kicked in last 5 or 10 min... 39 ... Clouds abruptly began moving rapidly S so the front's likely slipped passed

it does look like the boundary is mid way through N CT ... not through HFD just yet - wonder how that matches up with guidance? it's kind of hard to find it by wind because we're draining anyway. But those that go west of the boundary have shed 2- 3F rather quickly when using the 'non official' Wunder sites -

How is that being assessed ....? just curious - Front is not through here, in Ayer Mass, but I also should be on the same front as you, given to it's orientation NNE-SSW through the area. So that's interesting. I have been 38 all morning. If it ticks colder aloft, we could easily be spring cotton ball aggregates here ...so it's probably going to be an interesting day for the transition nerds - hahah

I realize there's a coveted hope in needling monitoring of a hopeless situation... and I hope it works out for many of you - really, seriously... But I, for one, cannot wait until circa 2:34 PM Monday afternoon, when the temp is in process of a 30 point recovery that day, and skies will be primarily cloud free, and the wind may not be appreciably strong. Area MOS ( FIT/ASH/BED ..which is relevant triangulum for Ayer) is 55 in MET MOS. 51 in the MAV ... but, keeping in mind, we've entered the time of year when the machine numbers tend to error cool under clear skies and zippo CAA. Here's the aspect that makes that day an interesting challenge for forecasting high temperatures: snow on the ground; decoupling Sunday night. Of those two factors, the decoupling is the bigger. Sunday night, even a couple of inches of snow ( more west of course...) under the ensuing cold intrusion is probably going to decouple rather quickly. Places like Orange MA'll be 12 by dawn - probably high teens most places anyway. That's quite the deep well to begin. It's just that all the guidance have 850mb recovering to +2 C by late afternoon, collocating the Pike, but doing so with low mixing. That would suggest adiabatic processing from diurnal overturning. Not sure the adiabat gets the high... I think 925 is the BL depth, but that's +5 by 4pm, and the SA from that level supports 62-ish in the 2-meter T, so it's going to either be a huge MOS bust that day, or I'm missing something here heh... Oh, I know what it is! Anyone actually reading this far along this tedium...

I like both heat and A.C. tho heh. no but my interest in heat is the synoptic meteorology … actually being in it all comes down to DP really

That jets pushing the ceiling on physics there... no doubt, but what's missing is a nice fan evac over N. NY-NNE ...If that were there, the snow on the cold side of the baroclinic axis would be better for those that are looking for that... Frankly I think you're all f nuts... I'd rather be like today or warmer from here on out but oh well.

...heh, "season" is a thing of the past. We're all mid aged now ... kind of opportunistic when we can go. We did one back in January on one of those milder days with no snow on the ground, most realistically out of desperation to get an out.

Albany ( NAM ) looks like they could get an impressive short duration snow blitz. They're packing .75" melted in a total snow sounding on the NAM FOUS. This situation is razor sharp really. The NAM grid is harder to delta between the intervals. Look at LGA ... They go from spitting QPF to a truck load, in a sounding that starts out in mid May and end up late January 240 03989255 02005 981506 51070603 30083909234 08115 913328 43999499

I'm kidding...

Not to be prig or a dick ... but I'm going to - what the f are we spending all this time needling through the carpet, surfing ( urban vernacular/metaphor) for any slipped rock nuggets to get us a d-drip.. Gosh, it looks pathetic. ...ha! Now, watch us get 12" of positive bust in a 1::1000 lotto winner, only because I said that -

As in, at all ? ..ha. I love baseball, but admit it's hard... getting harder for the average spectator. With all other distractions pawing at attention, there's just too much other stuff. Who the hell has time to sit through languid pitch counts ... game caller guys filling with anything they can that ultimately is meaningless to what's going on or one's time. Yeah, the future doesn't end well for that engagement. It's a problem for the game. It's 'on the wrong side of history.' It made sense - maybe - pre Internet/ media-tech -based culturally. I mean it'll survive for a longer while... inevitably dwindling draw. In the interim, there is still a large population that remembers ... perhaps with nostalgia. That target demo-g is there... But the longer term model of the game ? I agree - has to evolve into something new.

By the way ...for our winter enthusiasts, the anticipated 'bowling season' is showing up in the guidance as increasingly more plausible. One thing I'm seeing is the 'spring flash' passing over the operational models. It's not a fixed "effect" year to year, but it's when the pervasive veneer of colder availability/in situ across the N-tier and southern Canada, abruptly retreats and/or modulates up. This even this weekend appears to herald that in. It appears to coil winter up with it and trundles away as a deep pattern changing bomb- which is almost like a symbolic "seasonal Archembault" thing ... (that's interesting). anyway, next week we are left with more minoring 850 mb plumes and general warm tapestry of hydrostatic heights have taken over. *BUT* ... that still offers winter hope - ironically. Because the flow is relaxed, and it is curved in nature. The slowing velocities in the ambience allows that latter to happen, and there is the risk of closing off these parcels of mechanics. That's 1997 incarnate - not saying that's walking through the door. Just that closing off systems over marginal thickness settings is how you go from 64 F to 33 F at 10" of blue bomb snow ... which melts away in 3 days and your back in the 60s ...but, that's bowling season.

Today's likely to be impressive too... Low 20s at dawn, it's already 40-44 at home sites around the area.

Hey PF ... Monday's a 'diurnal spread watch' from what I am seeing. ...I mean it's one of my little dorkisms about spring(autumn) season(s), to test the extremeness of diurnals? I think you mentioned sharing in this crushing tedium LOL But, that looks like decoupling Sunday night to a pretty deep layer... going to an interesting correction Monday afternoon. I think up your way, mid summit up, SW winds overnight - tougher there. The valleys may actually not mix out at all the following afternoon on Monday. Otherwise, we could be dead calm 19 at dawn around SNE Monday morning, and make 57F that afternoon. WSW flow during the day under full equinoxian full sun? Seeing 850 mb explode from -11C at dawn, all the way to +3 by evening ...whilst dry advection/ clear ceiling, which means the mixing depth may extend higher than one may think. The gradient seems too week to force that much correction at that level, so it's gotta be mixing... Pretty cool. Winter coats to heavy nape.

Oh of course... I feel like Aprils haven't been as bad as May the last three years. ...I dunno. I think the return rate on "nice" April's somewhere like 1 in 387 years, so we're not really due for a while

It's 53 here... Light wind. Though the sun is pal through some milk there, it's still warmish. no snow left. It's pretty remarkable how this compares to about 5 pm yesterday.

Saw that ...frankly, hold one's breath and swallow getting thru this weekend. I'm sure there's those that care less for the inevitability of ensuing seasonal change... but I could not be more ready to shed this shit and get into green up ... Even if it's just field starter warmth with forsythia bud swelling and crocuses ... I'm done. I don't want to think about cold season for 7 months

This whole thing looks almost specious to me frankly. I may not have the best handle on this, admittedly ... But, this has been either leaning, or just 'acting like it wants to' lean more stretched/W-E orientation. The GFS merely doesn't want to give up? might be that - Euro comes a little more E ... There'll be a wave on the boundary... I wouldn't be shocked if it ends up weaker as we close in.

Yeah the idea was going to be the deep pressure well, ...descending as it arrives, then when it leaves, it's pure acceleration - Not sure that even comes into play if the boundary ends up more e anyway

The wind won't be quite as bad if the boundary gets east and the low tracks up it. If the low tracks straight overhead, that's when you get a huge restoring blast.

ya .. mentioned it a coupled days ago. excessive PG couple/isollabaric blah blah blah

... wee bit of consternation that the compromised solution happens to be spelled like, G -G -E -M