Typhoon Tip

... it always is with that f'n model.

Yeah wrote about this an hour ago ...not that run, per se, but the fact that the GFS is smearing/interfering a D7-ish Miller A with what appears to be a half-assed attempt at a -EPO Lake cutter. I think the GFS is suffering from a speed bias ...one that it has at all times, but by virtue of operating in a speeding field...it hides that propensity - it's little complex. It's like the fast gradient soaked hemisphere "enables" the GFS ... anyway, I think the GFS is too fast. Conversely, the GGEM tend to curve surfaces too much in that range... so to does the Euro. They both seem to get to that subtle bias, different ways though... (different discussion). But the take away is that a decimal-slower look would keep these features into their own identities, so we end up with a glob Miller A of minoring impact in the Euro and GGEM... with the GFS just one big exploited ravioli... The GGEM has a much more H.A. correction event look, after any would-be Miller A. That's essentially the Ides bomb I mused yesterday, really. The Euro opts for a just a big intense polar front with unending cold implied, with not much else resulting from these index wiggles... Meanwhile, the GFS' dailies seem to hearken seasonal change ... It's not "sustaining" warmth - I agree there. But it is bulging more hydrostatic thickness and then residually leaving them at higher latitudes post fronts out through 360 hours. It's an aspect it started doing yesterday and still is...It "might" be seasonal stressing/radiative forcing ...who knows.

Depends on one sub(sub-forum) ~ day 4.5 there is a minor impact potential for mainly central New England. It's another needle thread system - what's new over the past 10 years.. So where it snows, it will be narrow latitude. The Euro is farthest N, the GGEM is sorta between, the GFS is S enough to bring blue snow type all the way to the Pike. But neither of these solutions would implicated NYC area with any snow. Of course, ...that is as of 00z suite of runs, and there is 4.5 days it's possible they are all wrong. ~ day 7, a Miller A of weak to moderate scope moves up the EC. That system is more coherent in the GEFs ensemble mean than the operational version, which seems to be smearing it together with an -EPO Lakes cutter a day and half later, which heralds in the much ballyhooed mid month cold. The Euro and GGEM depict more separation between those, with more individual distinction. That allows their version of a weak to moderate Miller A to swath chilly spring rains up the EC, ...where eventually it runs into isothermal soundings (+) or (-) 1 either side of 0C at 850 -925 mb ...Strictly adhering, it's mixy and cat paws for SNE with snow N, but at this range in the spring, blue events always look like cat paws. Which at this time of year that signals the blue snow scenario ( < 10::1 cake). It'll take a couple days -worth of runs to radar which modeling has the better idea. I can see biased reasons for both to be wrong.

mm... the 18z run is clearly being exerted by seasonal change there. The run is having difficulty sustaining a cold look, despite the -EPO/.. loading in the D6-12 range. There are three cold inserts that are brief ( < 36 hours), that roll-out synoptically, replaced with warm bulges to almost 40 N. Not sure it's right - in fact, any 18z GFS run on an island is low confidence to put it nicely... However ... recent springs over the last 10 years tell you not to doubt a warm bulge just the same. And, at some point we will seasonally flash over the hemisphere with dullard the gradients. I thought that would be on the other side of the EPO...? This run seems to just be an oscillatory look - event reduces the need for a correction event at the Ides.

really ... it's been a problem all season. The entire dial of the hemisphere's been slipping back into that base-state where the ridge in western N/A is really more lapsing into the east Pacific ...sort of a west-based +PNA, or east-based -PNA, which ever way one chooses to identify it. But it's stressed systems ejected E, during the "perceived +PNA" episode, because the flow is caused to split coming down the Rockies, with some mechanics meandering through the SW - not being entirely sure it will reunite with the more N branch as it tunnels east through the Lakes. The blizzard mid season was about as close to reconnection/phase as we've gotten. Usually... there's been more destructive interference however.

Little critter that bites? although that looks a little more than innocuous on satellite - ..actually, it looks like it's in a RI

We've written some long prose with creative turn of phrases regarding the paradox of human evolution - over in the climate forum.Yup, I hear ya. I mean we both know there have been scholarly studies, to dystopian novels written, for decades. Folks should get into Fermi's Paradox ... and the hypothesis' that explain. The paradox was a destiny prescribed by Nature, its self. Look around us everywhere, in biology. Nothing that exists, that is alive, does so with no purpose. Nature does not waste time moving organized energy ... directly to entropy. You don't have a 3rd eye, for a reason...etc, but one eye fails depth perception. Two is just right ... oth intra process in the organism, its self, and how/service necessarily give in the integrated ecosystems of the larger biosphere. Therein is the problem... evolution provided our survival advantage being cooperation with higher intellect and ingenuity. Our survival has become hyper efficiently successful. 8 billion evinces that truism. Which by that "natural law of necessity" ( above), means that what got us here, ... effectively canceling out what got us here.

I suspect we're seeing the early formulation of an Ides bomb my self... - give or take a day or two.

Been speaking to the relay of the -EPO --> +PNA mode switch my self. Its being prevalent in the 00z is 3 .. 4 days of consistency there. It may be the last hurrah of the winter, for a larger synoptic/systemically rooted correction event ... Still looks like the "modeled intents" - for lack of better words - of the greater circulation prognostic heading out two weeks.. .etc. Doesn't mean it's completely over ... Winter storm enthusiasts start looking for 'bowling balls' This phase "spring puberty acne" happens when the hemispheric gradients tend to abruptly relax ( relatively ...), effectively stranding what's in the flow at those times. It's really more like a range of time where that type of stranding risk is elevated - 2 weeks or so perhaps. It's early ...but so far, the best candidate so far is the bigger dawg event that's in both EPS/GEFS and GEPs... around D10. It is unfortunately behaving ( for the time being ...), more like an EPO cutter. Which is interesting, because ... the EPO is rising at that time, after the negative sequencing. EPO cutters typically take place as, or nearing ...max -EPO on the front side of the gestation - whereby the flow downstream troughs over the Great Basin, and the wave transmittance orients the flow up the EC ..etc. There is caveat to this model, however... The flow in the eastern Pac can sometimes tunnel completely under the EPO ...cutting it off.. That does change the map a little for what/how things evolve over the mid latitude continent ... So something about that 240 morass is a little off. The flow is fast, and with that cold height loading into Canada, it's going to be really hauling ass. I would not be surprised if the R-wave total lenghts end up stretched a bit longer than climo with that whole ordeal. I think something being in that window is high confidence. What that is ...? I would not trust that giant busted ravioli mess ... The period of time in question has an H.A. correction look to it, either way.

Oh absolutely ... I'm unfortunately unemployed. I enjoyed 8 years of contiguous employment as a DB software engineer... blah blah that ended in good terms after this last Xmas. It's why I've been threading storms this year LOL - have the time. I'm increasing my search manifold to include the whole nation. Most of these Indeed or LinkedIn ...etc.. boards, have configured Remote as an option now. Like for example, some head hunter is trying to connect me with Twin Cities financial firm ... Interview by Zoom? I guess - I have a Met start up interested ... They're expanding mid summer and said they're interested. They due the typical risk assessing, climate and seasonal ..etc..but I'm getting a vibe that it may be our time soon? This CC shit is filling E.R.s in summers and crippling TX grids in winters... desiccating the west, and hurricanes notwithstanding... The world going to start needing guys with insight and tech ... perhaps to track nuclear mushroom cloud plumes.

I get the idea why you suggest that ... but, this gets into a possible infringement legality. Now ... it is corporate property if you are working through a secure VPN that's provided via company IT, and/or on a delivered lap-top ( etc...). Those may contain existing mouse click and key-stroke counters, anyway. They probably would be the same on these hosted systems, regardless of one being on-site or away. I really think the biggest metric is: aer deliverables content/contribution quotas met? If those slope off, it's no different in a perf review, then being at the office. I shared an on-site office space with a jar for 7 months before they canned him. What it really seems to be - to me - is a petty distrust in other people that drives the home vs office debate. Like all pettiness, it's usually full of shit or just empty. It's just dressed in other rhetoric and mantras trying to substantiate. So long as deliverables are meeting prerequisites/expectations, tough f'n shit man. They really don't have anything. They got what they want from you, you get compensated - end of discussion. And that will win in courts.

Cool Scott. heh... I had this image of you still at WSI rotating through swing shifts as a grid populator lol. Are you still in Meteorology ?

Half agree there (just musing a response to the bold) but admittedly, only for my own experience. I was kicked to home secure VPN telecommuting, as an IT professional, just like everyone else 2 years ago. That's a long enough 'default' experiment to trigger, and so a pandemic-enforced cultural shift was put into motion. During the interim, there was no point in really evaluating the pros and cons of doing so - not really ... - because based on the zeitgeist, no one had any choice in the matter. But, conjecture did begin to arise through the time, ... this was "working out" as a new paradigm. It was and still is, hard to imagine that with benefits in not needing overhead, ranging to even helping lower the total carbon footprint by lowering traffic, lowering corporate infrastructural facility costs (there's probably other metrics in the manifold), going back to circa 1985 would really be desired. But for me, ... and I'm not sure how to explain how this was so... I worked less, but turned in all my deliverables on time, with panache. This latter aspect should be all that matters. Not whether helicopter bosses are checking desk manacles and holding eyelids open like Clockwork Orange. There's a bit of a human policing fallacy that is involved with a lot of this, too - which is a bit abstract, ... still real, and very off-putting. In fact, one may almost sense Schadenfreude in knowing that particular manager is rocking back and forth at home darting their eyes around in anxiety, sniffing armpits for comfort because they don't otherwise get to lord their control. Sorry, taking some creative license here LOL. No I'm just saying that I think there are distractions at an office setting ... particular the open cubical park model. Emails seemed to fly more frequently containing before all this happened, containing information that really didn't offer much. There were more meetings scheduled that ironically... could have been handled in an email back pre-pandemic. During this last 2 years, it seem to allow more focus on the meatier need, and those - for me ... - were then more efficiently managed, leaving more time to go on a bike ride or hit the gym earlier. or whatever... It's interesting...

In Biden's SOTU address last night ... he spoke of pandemic corruption to the tune of multiple billions. Humans deserve their plight. There is no lever extended down from sky turning the affairs of humanity. Everything we do... we've done to our selves. From CC, to pandemic vitriol and nefarium, to the Ukraine crisis, all of it. Here's a psycho-babble hypothesis: everyone exists on spectrum of "conditional sociopathy." Just a matter of triggering thresholds, to get them to show their truly gray milquetoast colors. No one is absolutely sane. No one is absolutely crazy. But everyone definitely is somewhere on that spectrum, while no one ever ever really knows who anyone is, as we conceit in our relationships and carry on turning the gears of society. And at the end of all that delusional journey, you get to die. Cheers.

heh ... no one was really paying much attention to the synoptics leading last night's "event" - if we want to distinguish it with that merit. Not to toot horns but I did know that was all possible. In fact ...between 06z and 12z Thurs looks similar. Affairs this week with repeating frontal passages... And also the loss of the front side mix ordeal over the weekend... blah blah. It's a 'penny pattern.' C-3's from butterflies in the flow. In theory ...there is a bigger event mid month. The -EPO burst still appears on track. Both the Euro and the GFS operational version carry the climate EPO cutter right on cue - albeit ...day 10 isn't exactly hugely deterministic lol. There are some aspects to me... 1 ...the fast nature of the flow may tend to extended the R-wave climatology for -EPO onset more E. Example, the blizzard back mid season was actually taking place in a stretched field. The western ridge was actually west of typology. 2 ...the -EPO may collapse into and enforce a rise of the PNA. It doesn't have to... but that's not an unusual evolution. The erstwhile -EPO loads cold. The rising in the PNA ... viola. 3 ...whether that happens more or less coherently, that is quite the cold anomaly settling into mid Canada out there D7-12. It's hard to believe that won't play some kind of factor at least down to ORD-BOS latitudes, some how, some way.

Not sure I agree with this tact.

Straight ra 34

hm... wonder where the hand on the Doomsday clock points now -

The overnight - to me - actually looked more winter threatening ( for lack of better phrase ...), from roughly D7-15 I almost imagine that being the last 'winter pattern' attributed risk period. Proverbial "bowling season" can happen through April, as a separate synoptic loading. But the off and on EPS signal got a bit more coherent to me, and it appears all guidance/cross guidance fuller cluster reference signals loading a pretty goodly cold mass into Canada. Meanwhile, the numerical telecon spread has shown a bit of a PNA disruption emerging heading into week 2 - one that I suspect my gain momentum heading forward. Typical EPO gestation: -EPO heights collapse into the -PNA, forces --> +PNA switch ...takes 6 day to play out ( or so...). But that's what happens. Cold loads, then the PNA rises into it... Archembault earns her Master's thesis. This almost looks text book out there to me, and the overnight CPC PNA disruption is probably just the GEF members responding to that exertion. So we'll see...

I'm presently trying to formulate a vision on that... I realize folks are not as interested in 'big heat'. It can be a tedious topic for many. However, I think in a CC era, one that is by all scientific interpolation ...no going to end well, monitoring becomes more important. Moreover, it is being documented, these strange what have been denoted as "synergistic" heat explosion, never before measured ... Pacific NW last June a one example in many, occurring all over the World with increasing frequency over recent decades. We are entering a new paradigm. No need to run down the list ... but obviously, multi-fasted impacts they bring when you can slow bake bread over back decks and desiccate ponds down rotting fish stench, almost every year ... no matter what leading indicators have been. They don't seem to be very predictable, either. Large synoptic modeling may signal heat potential, but they haven't well predicted 2012, France, Australia, the Europe ...2021 in the Pac NW. They are almost like thermal 'rogue wave' in a storm of warmth.

This is the best news and report disseminated since this began ... https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/01/politics/us-intelligence-putin-state-of-mind/index.html ...again, CNN - tfwiw... Understanding any adversary is crucial in every conflict - that's just rudimentary. But in this situation ... that seems uniquely urgent. The World needs to stop saying in one sentence that this adversary is crazed, but then philosophizing/framing the conflict around a war-time sovereignty, opposition model. This "might" require a unique, artful white gloving of a psychotic - one that by convention of insanity ... is detached from any limitation. CNN does have a tendency to recloth content in swag 'flare' for drama. They're a news for profit wagon, seductively captivating their constituency with daunt and dystopia ...etc. Still, the evidences predate this article enough to gather veracity, and it at least insinuates much of what we've been discussing the last several day of this crisis: What is the the scale and degree of this despotism operating the Russian Military machine, and does it extend into the realm of a mad-man. This content is either CNN bedazzle, or is loaded with implicit WTFitude: " But the sudden burst of interest reflects a sense among some intelligence officials that Putin’s decision-making in Ukraine has been out of character – perhaps due to what some previous intelligence reports suggest has been protracted isolation during the Covid-19 pandemic. “Everything US has [is] in [the] realm of conjecture because Putin’s decisions and statements don’t seem to be making sense,” said one source familiar with recent intelligence reporting on the topic. “For years, decades Putin has acted according to a pretty specific template.”"

We are merely animals operating the greatest WMD of all: the human brain

They’d have no compunctions about scorching the Earth well before that would ever be realized.

See …. again I don’t think cornering an unhinged despot is the right approach here. “(CNN) Turkey has officially labeled Russia's invasion of Ukraine as a war and says it will restrict some warships from passing through key waterways, in a move that experts said could potentially hinder some of Moscow's military activities in the region.” … granted it is CNN so- But I dunno. I guess I may be in the minority here. I just think once you’ve cross into the realm of the unhinged … there is either a finality already predetermined and set into motion, or at best this situation can be is dangerously unpredictable.

That's funny ... "super double ultimate high alert" kinda like 'extra double top secret probation ' But there is one difference here between Kim Jong Un-capable, and that is the Russia is capable. And has already committed to aggression not just rhetoric