Typhoon Tip

I didn’t think the 18z was that bad anyway. You all just got more nerve than a bum tooth these days. Was less than perfect… ? fine. Uh this is still just a signal and as far as signals go that’s you’re putting a bunch of baroclinic action right through a signal- that’s all you can expect from now. By the way 18z Nam is also 70 over metro west of Boston on Thursday regardless of whatever the 2 m says those parametrics combined with a post February 10 sun is going to soar. West wind open sky 11 Celsius at 900 mbar with low dewpoints and no snow pack. Pretty sure that would be historic numbers a little bit more meaningfully than 58 we put up last week

In the near term … that 18z NAM would tickle 70 on Thursday over downtown crossings and parking lots over eastern mass well west of marine kisses

we laugh but yeah, the thought's crossed the mind - it's not a bad take Ryan.

Euro's gonna lag toward the 24th but it's got the signal big time in the 12z run. I still argue given the accelerating velocity footprint over the hemisphere ...that's liable to quicken pace in future guidance. It's also got a sneaky emphasis being placed on the 21st ... Haven't honestly been paying too close attention to these foreground "shrapnel" ejections in the stream, for actual production - but it's putting some emphasis on that D7 thing ... which I know you and I were keen on that feature as a table setter..etc.... more for the 23/24th

..time of the year... It'll do this on day's of this likeness until early August this goes back to 1990s MOS really - as far as I'm aware. Every sunny day that ever existed, where there wasn't a -million SD CAA raging ... ends up above machine numbers. What and why-for that is, ...prooobably has to do with climate normalization, particularly with MAV ext ... But I'm not sure, because the MEX seems to do the same thing, as does the MAV, a mere day's lead, whence there is almost 0 tickery. Brian may no something about the tech as he and I have mentioned in the past.

well I mention it only because it may need the attention later in the week

Just about exactly where I am in this John Trending in favor but not leaning in just yet. I do feel - agreement with Will - that this has a somewhat different appeal at this point comparing predecessor 'failure's; getting this to augment into deeper cold look, is going in the opposite direction when crossing through the D10's "event horizon" ... it's been a very tricky, unsuccessful time range this season. I mentioned this risk to you in text I believe later Sunday night - the GEFs individual members were 2/3rds in on 'some' kind of risk over eastern mid lat / N/A, though they varied on 'what' that would be. Part of the reason for that - I feel - is related to the sub-index nature of this signal. It's not really tied to a major modal d(index) - this is almost purely driven by antecedent quasi -EPO in a mass field conflict with persistent RNI signal running by underneath. Folks, don't aspect this out as a Miller B or anything like that - though not impossible...This is open wave/duration snow/ice, cold rain layout N-S *IF*IF*IF* and where critical D7 -ish ambient polar boundary lays down... It's all more likely to be that kind of structure - perhaps a nod to that 2015 Feb event for reference...

GEFS at 120-144 ... see cold loading across southern Canada/Lakes --> NE is inevitable in that look. If we're setting tables that's your white cloth -

Lol ... some of you don't exactly demonstrate a willingness to operate within the confines of personal restraint. I'm seeing a lot of 'huge finish as we thought' this, and 'all kinds of chances now through March' that. That didn't take long! It's like you entered a rehabilitation clinic for a 90 day court order tactile treatment ... passed the screening, and summarily upon release, drove 90 mph to a crack house ... Even if those notions are just in jest, ... just sayn' As far as the D8-11 period - imho - we are still just talking about a signal. There's some subtle attempt at convergence upon an event, but ... it's quite vague. The Euro and GGEM want it closer to D10. The GFS ...suggestion races matters along, and is flatter and weaker around D8.5 through 9. While all the while, these are solutions that are new - in other words, no continuity is established yet...etc... Well, that's not entirely fair for the GFS... it's been carrying an idea better. If I were taking an early guess at 'extended' model performance, they seem to all be operating slaved to their own bias types. The Euro and especially the GGEM tend to end up with more curvature in the field beyond D7 as a general rule. That probably ...or could, I should say, atone for their slower deeper solutions. The GFS on the other hand, tends to a progressive vibe that grows out in time, such that the wave mechanics get stretched and ultimately interfered with - even if only small fractions. All models have a lot of gradient setting up N-S from higher to lower latitudes across the continent in the D6-12 range... so, timing and ultimately intensity/..placement.. .yikes. Beyond that 12 days ( or so...) I wouldn't even step foot into the casino on this one. Good luck. The longer term planetary cues have us doing a 1976 escape this year. In fact, the only reason I can see why we haven't done some kind of attribution scientist's fantasy escape already, is really all coming down to the quasi ( almost non-descript) -EPO forcing that may not even be coherently evident on the charts. But the end result of Canadian cold loading tends to betray that influence... If not for that one ?saving? grace, imho we'd have crockus and forsythias coming to life already.

Yes... I was honestly a little worried about this correcting faster. The window for open skies was narrow and precariously timed to begin with, and the local hemisphere's a bit faster at the baseline. Probably need to start thinking about leaning on the front side of spacial-temporal placement where even dependable event tacking in the D5-7 ( assuming we get that far before the white-board effect ... ) tend to end up earlier.... In the meantime, warmth is in general the most fragile of all aspects and seldom does a narrow window for it, survive the larger numbers of model runs - and now we have a 12 hour wind from 6 days out in a faster atmosphere? -right We'll see...

I’ve been watching that with the same idea

anyway...jokes aside... still a signal lurks now D8.5 to 9.5 ish... so, it's actually survived the 10 day event horizon. Solutions vary.. The 12z Euro now has it too - so even something like cross-guidance support from the deterministic version. The trick is getting that cross g support when it is 3 days away, not f'ing 9... but we'll see. 18z GFS has 2015 redux... about 30 straight hours of moderate snow in cold

Not at seasonal scales unfortunately...

GEFs extended mean is alleviating the negative PNA ...but only rises to -.5 or so, into the 2nd week of March. Via Weatherbell. The 'control' run ( code for George stroking his goatee while he pushes a drift switch in demonic laughter ...) has the PNA spiking madly to +2 SD for 3 days before falling back neutral negative way out there... Probably the synoptic version has an 1888 at the apex, I'm guessing but I'm waiting on an email from George before confirming we're gonna die in a blizzard... If it's any help.

If they succeed in the first half of that... don't ask me how I know but the 2nd half of that fails

Mm case in point ..the 12z GFS' D9 ..10 although the NAO may not be negative per se. Essentially works out to the same rub. I mean I don't have a boat load of confidence in actually getting a wintry profiled ordeal in that time frame, but ...there is a multi-member presentation in the GEFs - whether the scatter is spread out all over hell's creation or not. That's par for the course for 'sub index'. I don’t have anything else as far as I can see… It’s all we got as we sit next to what could be winter’s death bed if things don’t break Not that anyone asked... I'm sort of in my typical seasonal ambivalence with regard to personal druthers that I experience in mid Febs. In one sense, I feel we were jilted by ...something this winter, pretty badly, and are 'owed' in a crazy sense of it. ha! But, we are also out of the solar minimum and one can actually feel that difference. The sun's setting a little later and don't look now, but it's light still at 5:20 pm ... These latter senses start my nostalgia engine for putting this misery away, dusting off and moving into the warm season.

so just to be clear ... ...the conversation tact is predicated on the -NAO assumption? I happen to believe we probably are looking at a > 50 % likeliness to observe a -NAO ... I have a few reasons that I'll gladly gloss over eyes and send readers to Advil if you'd like. I'm guessin' no though, heh Anyway, fwi not w ...the CFS has been all over the -NAO... even west basing it. In fact, some of the runs have been dreaded too hefty, like I was just describing for WW. But cross that bridge I suppose. ...assuming the > 50% gives a return on that investment. heh. Here's March 4 over at pivotal, nicely illustrated a western limb -NAO Should also review a crucial aspect in the NAO. There is quite often a fallacy that -NAO means snow. No. The index in a state of change has a weak correlation to precipitation events over eastern N/A. The PNA, on the other hand, has a strong correlation when it is in a state of change. I mean the papers can't spell it out any clearer, yet we pine around for -NAOs still, clearly as though we place way too much weight on them. Fwiw, my own experience is that a modestly negative NAO, west based, that is being cyclically perturbed ( oh... every 4 days or so..) is more typical for recreating snow potentials.

Will knows this ... but 'big blocks' are bad. I suspect he means just getting a coherency in that regard instead of hinting and/or having it be east based or situated wrong...etc. Lot of qualifications really. But a large ridge anomaly sitting over Baffin Island gets into the suppression shit. That is more maddening - to me- actually than what we've just gone through. At least what we've just gone thru we can blame on bad luck. But the compression from a big elephant ass up there, mooshing everything down? That ends up 5 below normal high temps, in constant wind driving dry air windchill nothingness, eternally. F that! for fun I call it the 'elephant sitting on a trampoline' effect. If you can imagine what that would look like. haha. Basically, stretched so tight the flow can't dent? well dents are where the storms form...and so on.

If it were me ... I might consider augmenting my approach philosophy if/when seeking any seasonal redemption or wintry event looking forward... The 'pattern' may not be much help in doing so. When referring or relying upon the GEFS or EPS or GEPs averaged wholesale structures..etc, that large scale application means attempting to connect with a index-scaled events: those that are triggered by more obviously recognizable signals. I just think for the time being ( ...next couple of weeks anyway ..), you're focus should be sub-index scaled correction scenarios. Events that "sneak" past those conventions. Case in point ... looking at the charts out there between D9 and 11 .. 12, one may not guess much is very possible or even plausible, with a compressed and very fast interference pattern... However, at the individual member level ( and deterministic solutions notwithstanding), a lot of ensemble members seem to detect enough perturbation in that elephant pattern to ignite an overrunning/ open wave situation. Despite the over-arcing panoply of planetary indexes signaling warmth and an early escape ( BD season notwithstanding...), there is a lot of cold air in Canada through the period, with a subtle tendency to split the flow just enough... The telecon detection grid for the PNA is clearly seeing the negative out there toward week 2. But ...if there is still a modest N/stream coming into occasional confluence, ..yes, even with a +AO ... the cold source would likely bear its presence down to 40 N... Heh, perhaps the only way really possible to get any kind of wintry production out of a +AO/+NAO/-PNA PHASE 3-6.5 MJO, late winter La Nina climo.. but it is what it is... We'll see... keep an eye on that range tho

Lake Champlain ice fishing tournament canceled after 3 fishermen die due to thin lake ice“-CNN

We'll have to keep an eye on that day 10 range just in case :/ There may be a sub- index scale event in there...it's low prob but higher than the baseline

May be a prelude to the seasonal NAO balloon

Here ya go... any takers ?

Yeeeah, the aspects of that list I provided are seasonal, too, not just sub-seasonal scaled indexes. We're really dealing with ambrosia of multi-dimensional winter killers, frankly. From the empirical calculated EOFs, to the super synoptic "intangibles" and back. It's like a meteverse coexisting and competing for reality. Lol. Anyway, like I said, I've been biding time. In deference to having Canada loaded up with cold, that's really more like agreeing on the hybrid nature of the AO. One has to be careful with any index application, because ( like in this case) this +AO may be idiosyncratic in the way it is modeled/verifies ( spatial layout ) way out there ... +AO can result a warm Eurasia and N Pac, at the expense of a colder N/A ... Just like some -AOs can establish conveyors elsewhere and put N/A on a warm island. It's not always evenly distributed...etc. I mean the correlations are not 1::1 Unfortunately for me, however, I find that to be the weaker signal, and of lower reliance, out of all that avails to the discussion. Nothing extraordinary in saying that - any signal that far out would be, I know.

Pretty sure most know my position on matters by now ... but whatever. With this very veracious litany of indicators actually existing and present in reality: +AO/+NAO/-PNA ... ROBUST MJO in phase 3-6 on going and ( probably ) just not as of yet registering a forcing signature (but it may be on the way) ... La Nina climo/springs ... Recent years with these February 'warm bursting' synoptics ... appearing to be independent of ENSO this or polar field that ... and WTF, may as well toss in climate change leaning on everything far more undeniably than the consortium cares to admit ... That looks warm. I just keep waiting for the other shoe to fall, and after a relentless tug of war ...finally, a series of model runs offer up the movie that really should have been premiered already by now: staring some kind of turbo ridge from Hades. I have been biding time out of deference to the Euro and GGEM and GFS with these huge resorvoirs of cold lurking across the Canadian shield. They are bleeding enough of that to roughly 45 lat that we're ending up with this potent ambient hydrostatic gradient ( that looks like March frankly, but even more intense). All that is doing, though, is making the gradient so excessive that these S/W are intrinsically embedded in an utterly hostile velocity shear fest. The Lakes cutter persistence has solid "immovable" fit, too, because that litany of warm cues above may just be like two elephants leaning on each other, and their ass cheek touch along a PHX to DET line. It's just locked in that persistence by two overwhelmingly titanic forces ... (transient -EPOs are the culprit on the other side). I would not say it is likely, but there is a something better than a mere non-zero possibility ...we've seen our last snow this year. I mean I'd put the odds of that at the lower end, but > than most years or the 300 years (irrelevant?) climatological signal.