Typhoon Tip

Nah... I'd really rather it ends

1888

Something I've noticed over the years of deterministic guidance efforts, particularly as it relates to arriving warmth ... that tends to happen surprisingly often. There'll be a day out in the late mid range in spring and summer that looks like it may really roast... Then as the time years, somehow its the day before that is the warmest, while the day that was supposed to roast originally ... just seems to invent reasons not to be as hot as it could be. Clouds...BDs ... systems just speeding up in timing...etc. Here we are in a Feb warm departure and there it is - boom

Yup Im impressed by general thermal gradient between S Canada and TV in the means. Man that’s gonna bottle rocket systems thru. It is also unfortunately true that the ridge could continue to correct and push the jet N.

We probably have to deal with another W-E running needle thread episode 4 days later, too. Tough shit. It either sets up axis favorably, or not -

I strongly - personally - believe we'd find this owes to the velocity soaking of the hemisphere... because the polar regions are still substantively deep enough in heights that when the background, however albeit modestly the subtropical 'kiss' latitudes term out into the westerlies ...stay elevated ...even if by a mere 3 to 6 dm would likely be enough to integrate and express the balanced geos wind potential. That is causing large wave space behavior morphology... We just ( likely...) happened to be in a precisely the wrong traffic aspect wrt to semi -fixed positioning... ...And yeah, I agree that a well-coupled ENSO Nino ...even alleviation of the NINA ... would lend to moving that fixation into a different mode

wow... huh? that's nuts.

yeah... plug pulled over here, too... I feel partially responsible for bringing that period of time to light, as I was first to mention we should monitor it as far as I know of - about 5 days ago or whenever that was. The problem is, there is a tendency to conflate the mere philosophy discussion of what is out there in both the models, but also what could emerge in time ... etc, with an actual forecast. Those two are two different things. I mean, do people think NWS employees sit around between model runs and communicate like text off a weather bureau telegraph .. no they hash shit out. What needs to happens here, take away there, and the plausibility of those aspects taking place...etc..etc... I guess shut down the site until it's actually snowing out ...but then, the users aren't getting their d-drip dosing, are they heh. Anyway, the period has storminess rippling through the flow, and right now it's too far N. it is what it is... but the signal recognition was on point. Having said all that... I was also careful to point out all along that the there's no real telecon support for it. It was a 'sub-index' scaled recognition effort. The scatter plotting has been immensely peppered all over hell's creation, probably owning to not having that indexing. We're probably something like 'lucky' to have any cold air situated like this... and unfortunately, we cannot ignore it, either.

Yeah...but how much or how little. Right, 64 million dollar question. Whomever answers that with resounding truism ... actually, probably winds up with Hoffa by big oil's tentacles of subsidiary interest groups... heh. Anyway, Scott's right - ...these patterns, 2 or whatever hundred years ago would torch too - but to me, that's not the issue. What is, is the frequency and return rate. We keep getting hung up in the scalar gaped-jaw factor, and trying to offset the specter of the thing by way of this mantra, 'this has happened before' That is not considering the most important aspect: it should not be happening so frequently. Nor should the record blasting recurring heat in NW-N Euro... Australia... the lower Urals...and Siberia, causing methane hydrate blow outs in the land scape due to lost capping permafrost... blah blah blah... [enter never-before-ism happening again and again here] Forget how warm it gets and trying to say it's been this warm before, and how it doesn't mean CC is doing this... Those arguments are logically flawed when you add return rates at global wholesale scales, and time dimensional considerations... Also, CC has the word "change" IN IT. Saying CC doesn't drive the weather does not drop any mic like those that use it seem to think. The weather is changing; that why the change in CC is there... For and directed at the world of awareness and exposing idiots and liars, that abbreviation needs to become "WC" heh...being a little facetious, perhaps. There are a couple of fascinating article contributed to the IPCC reports that discuss the occurrence of what is called "synergistic heat" ... There is no combination of synoptics as provided by modeling that would support 108 F at London ( say ...), yet enough sites verify that number to substantiate its validity. Heat is an aspect that surges to values greater than the sum of the contributing aspects... I suspect that phenomenon is extendable to the less than historic heat, as well... I believe that we are ( as I have been calling it lately...) experiencing "warm burst" scenarios with increasing frequency because it's tied into the same mechanism...where it goes over and beyond.

I was just thinkin' ... "gone from considering a 30 hour overrunning snow/mix event to a possible warm burst scenario -" Unrelated, the la la GFS' 00z and 06z ranges ended with 80 F bulges to Ohio. We can blame this crap on whatever we want ...but the sad fact of that matter is, in 300 years of N/A record keeping, we did not observe what 2017, 2018 and 2020 ( possibly now?) February's have/are doing in our regional backyard. Regardless of cause, that is true ... I guess you'd have to be brain dead if that didn't resonate on some level -

Yeah...I know - I'm was just sort of water coolering that stuff there. Fact of that matter is... theta-e rises with C02, mathematically predicted ... and since, empirically shown. It cannot be refuted, and duh ...lows/ night thermodynamics have strong proxy by DP. It's interesting to me that the direct insert arctic air masses do not seem to demo that relationship so much. 2015... that deal last month? to name a couple...

I'm amazed that my low here was +31 thirty f one ...above normal. Which, ...you know, if we had a southerly gale type Lakes cutter raging on, we could do that and have in the past. But this? dead calm, open clear skies... That's really something for Feb 16. But a subtlety to that: ..once again, our lows pull the most weight on above normal, when it is above normal... I find this very specific aspect to be both consistent across all seasons... patterns, and permutations in the nature of our weather. The question is, why? It's a fascinating discussion/Q for scientific debate (imho-), though my guess is... heh, given the subject matter, few would engage or be willing to? Anyway, why the low temperatures own the ballast of "above normalness" ...I don't 'think' is a CC issue? Then we'd have to get into how much or little... Like CC may control 10% of that weirdness ...20...30, flip a f'n coin. Maybe it is all connect to DP... yeah you know - is the DP above normal, in all circumstances except for freak direct arctic inserts??

We've been slammed shut for temp rise for an hr and half. This cloud density is just enough to cap matters. 56 flat-lined. Looking up stream, most may be on borrowed time with this - not sure this 300 mb milk is going to thin looking up stream.

Wait until circa April 3rd, BOS to ALB ... 38/84

I don't really wanna get involved in any attempts to either ameliorate the inconsolable - haha.. nor, the attempts to cap the voice of the "trolls" Neither endeavor will ever succeed. It's almost like there are three neurosis involved: Inconsolability; trolling a-holery; those that continue to try and 'fix' either, while expecting a different result. Anywho... having said that, ...perhaps D8-10 ordeal needs to go ahead and actually happen. While it may not stop either of those neurotic engagements ( lol...) altogether ... it doesn't take psychiatric conference to sense it would lower the vitriol. The last two runs of the GFS show more acknowledgement to having +PP built into QUE that is above 1035 mb, ...but more importantly... that is already dammed into the NE regions prior to the arrival of the WAA thrust through the Lakes. That gives it a nod to me. Remove the +PP up there, and the circumstance of it being dammed in here... then I have less issue with a warm solution(s) overall. But, the 500 mb flow and construct over all prevents a true Lakes to Canada escape of that mess... It also is why-for the confluence that produces the +PP... and so forth. That is because the PV is settling into N Canada - ultimately. It seems this battle axis is higher confidence. The question is precisely where that axis forces the east turn. 2 short days ago ...that was S. Even some consistency was going on. But since, it's back N... same consistency. 2 days on ...2 days off... still D8 as of this morning?

It's not going away - most likely ... However, the hemisphere is in a dipole state at mid latitudes that is more intense than the normal for winter. Between the positioning of the PV toward N James Bay, late this week through early March, that 10 or so days sets up competing larger mass field indicators. Without the PV ...I personally have no doubts we would truly be doing something in this year to astound the website down to crickets because there'd just be nothing else to say 70+ so frequently we'd put up the first 30 day stretch +30 month in history... Little hyperbole for fun there haha. No, but seriously ... the PV rotating over this side of the hemisphere late this month is not likely to allow mid latitude N/A to warm to the extent that it could, given the antecedent and ongoing -PNA/ La Nina climo aspects... The PV is a cold circulation source. The -PNA / La Nina footprint ( well coupled as it is presently and likely to remain, despite the fact that the index is in fact weakening as we consider it-), are a warm source. What this does is pretty clearly what the ensemble means are illustrating, GEFS/EPS/GEPs, having cold anomalies loading across the Canadian shield, whilst E TX to VA and south see 564 to even 570 dm hydrostats occasionally rolling through the south.

Last couple of GFS were more realistic with hesitating BL resistance.. but unfortunately ( or fortunately depending on the druthers) that looks an ice storm for interior SNE...with IP 2" deep down across S VT/NH ... Snow for N country though

wow... 52 at 7:30 am on Feb 16 ....under clear skies and no wind.... To me personally I find that an astounding circumstance. I wonder what the 7:30 am temperatures were when we had those unworldly warm days in 2017, 2018, and 2020.

the two most trustworthy models known to the technological pantheon, the JMA and ICON models... , both have 22nd bombs leaving our coast... heh

Folks should to consider the PNA as having E/W biases - particularly as it then forces the PNAP response. The 1980s had a lot of seasons between '85 and '90 where the PNA --> PNAP had the ridge slightly too far E in the means. Hence the Cape decade... with lots of dry cold waves. This year...it's been west when it's materialized ... I'd even argue that if it goes west far enough it starts eventually reflecting/leaning the index more negative ... but that's an artifact of a fixed domain space, then moving objects around within it. A "true" -PNA really should not have a positive height anomaly rattling around the east Pacific while merely overlapping the west coast - I almost think that circumstance, one we've seen a lot of this year ( and likely doomed the Xmas event to the Buffalo transit ) should be codified as a separate index significance somehow, but that's venturing - Sometimes a neutral PNA is really like a positive PNA that is just biased W...

I don't believe the PV slipping off axis and rotating down into the Canadian N is being modulated by the MJO to begin with. There's little use - imho - in drafting causation from the trop Pac dispersion model. The advent of the Marine sub-continental wave propagation over the last 10 days is merely a strong presentation of a wave even, one that was in constructive interference during 3-6, wrt to the La Nina couple based state. If anything the PV behavior in the models is actually in an anti-corrlated state with phase 3-6 ... Now that it is rounding the RMM, the models are detecting the destructive interference of said couple base state, and the wave is summarily - just like all predecessors all year... - not likely to penetrate the 7/8 spacial region, where it actually would be a better correlation for the present modeled PV behavior.... This chain of unlikely correlated events, happening anyway..., doesn't altogether argue that the MJO is really got proxy over the hemisphere.

I've been analyzing it over the last week ... It is apparently down-welling in the prognostics of the GFS *courtesy CPCs strat/trop monitoring division. Most crucial factor in assessing it's ability to modulate the mode of the AO, is that downward propagation behavior... 2006 -0.170 -0.156 -1.604(March) 0.138 In this case... the modulation times for early March, assuming an initiation/timing last week? I'm not entirely certain when this particular event got going... The recent temperature monitoring suggests its not even behaving so much like an actual "SUDDEN" event. There's a node that is rotating around PV high stratospheric altitude for over 2 weeks... It almost appears like this is attempting to reach a critical mass loading and then just ends up forcing it's way down that way... I mean, the science of how these works gets the idealized model, but there's probably flavors and hybrid mechanics in reality and not all these events necessarily have to run along according to that idealize behavior...

I'm buckin for a 70 tomorrow.. heh. seriously though, the numbers on the NAM grid would support a positive bust over machine guidance ( MOS MET and the MAV for that matter ) at sites like KBED/KFIT/KASH... up our way. Unless your wind veers more S, can't imagine it's cooler down there.. But it has +12C at 900 mb the last several cycles between 18z and sunset tomorrow, with 700 and 500 mb RH fields < 50%... Light west wind... I mean these parameters assert warmer than most 2-meter products post Feb 10 sun intensity, and I like the challenge that happens at this time of year, where it's predictable both that the MOS coverage will lag ...but, human interpolation appears to not have testicles big enough to put up on their graphics... I'd even call 68 at KFIT to KASH a relative win in this regard... We'll see

that was intended as pissy sarcasm... it's rectal glue that said, hi res vis sat has clearing punching east pretty fast out of NY. may be a huge diurnal change today? seems both the climb out of the diurnal well, plus a synoptic change sweeping through during the morning might combine for a lot of deg change. we'll see. it always seems in this god forsaken cold anus hole region of the country like the worst of any shit air finds a way compress right against a warm boundary...

really soothing and beautiful out there this morning