Typhoon Tip

That fist sentence? hilarious ... it's like, 'ooh, not gonna end well' You know, I just did a road trip to Michigan and back last week. Once you get west of about Pa, it's not all that uncommon to see these black leather clad Harley riders with nothing more than a beanie helmet. Sometimes? none at all. I'm like, really - They're cruising along ...you can just feel their aura of defiance as they're riding with one hand, the other on hip, at 78 mph. Full face and nape exposed. They have to have been popped before. I mean I don't see how they haven't. I ride a road bicycle and got whacked and stung on the lip once doing 17 or 19 down a bike trail and my handle bars were wobbling from the repulsive shock. What the f happens when a sting enraged bullet tries to tunnel through your neck on a Harley.

LOL, ...seems to be a leitmotif of Tam' getting stung for doing god's work - hahaha yeah, I know bumblers'll sting in general, if provoked enough... I was talking within that context of that setting, as they're busy foraging in the bounty the Delphinium provide - it seems they are too distracted ? seems that way - like in Africa: the lions sometimes will be seen at the side of the watering holes lapping, while Caped Buffalo are right near by doing the same. ....not withstanding crocodiles, which appear to operate within their own moral code ( i.e. none ), there seems to be some settings where there is a mutual understanding, unwritten code among species to suspend all hostilities. I mean that's probably a Disney version..but I have seen that image before where thirst overcomes all -

oh I know... just banterin'

I was just gonna say... Take that storm track and tip it 50-70 miles to the left. That would be stronger than the 1938 hurricane, sweeping ( perhaps literally!) over a structural and communication infrastructure that is, of course, orders of magnitude so much more densely evolved than even 1938, that any comparative calculation would almost extends beyond the imagination. People don't really get what that would be like. Sorry. They don't. Little hyperbole, perhaps ... just a little. But blah blah blah we've discussed the 'big one' like Californians do Earthquakes and so it is too, just a matter of time. All that is has been put into place during a relative climate quiescence ... and remains untested. The 1950s probably instilled a false sense of integrity to the above systemic modernization of this region of "disrespected" vulnerability. Because they came and went within a mere billion of commerce. Now? not much more then memories of grand-dad's fables, and he's been been dead for 20 years of continued cavalier times. It's gonna be a lot fun ... collecting southern RI, CT, SE Mass toilet paper, bank statements, bras, and a body part or two out of stripped trees of the deep interior, and a 6 week shut down of Boston and Providence and Worcester Metro while special engineering teams complete the architectural testing of high profile sky-line structures that bore the brunt of 180 mph 4 minute wind gusts. Not to mention the toxic quagmire almost as bad 9/11 miasma, choking the streets below... Cat 4 hurricane moving 50 mi left of that track at 50 mph forward translation velocity? I dunno - we live within a probability for lightning strikes, too - good thing those don't really happen, huh.

Wow ..someone's in a huffy mode today lol

NHC seems quite hog-tied to the models in recent era. I noticed this behavior began some .. 7 or so years ago, where they don't pull the trigger on Invests regions, unless the models emerge a cyclone in that same vicinity. It's purely a statistical move, I suspect. Though not sure ... they may be able to prove the models have crossed over a skill threshold, where/when they now can project discrete regions of interest with superior ability over human observation-based extrapolations. Fine... you use what works. But looking out over the MDR since yesterday... they carry on with two, low chance Invests. One near 65W over the eastern Caribbean, the other near the same latitude way east near the Cape Verdi Islands. The vast region in between ...? Nothing - Meanwhile, there has been a persistent deep convective event existing in perpetuity ... in the vast region in between. One that now appears to be taking on cyclonic motion on higher res vis imagery as the dawn swept over the Basin. They may right. This isn't intended to cast shade or doubt, or deride their skill and efforts...It's just that it's a little head scratching at times like these, when they're holding onto coughing entities while ignoring the health of the other contender. Now watch... just because I post this missive... in 2 hours flat it'll disappear in spite of 24 to 30 hour of perpetuity... and the other two will explode - typical. They probably have some kind of super ensemble regression algorithms or some Sci Fi shit going on to deduce stuff, were as we the hoi polloi celebrate our egos as prognosticators by utilizing the granular crap we get for free on the cartoon web sites. ...so whatever. I "think" the eastern Caribbean disturbance might be the one the overnight GFS solutions eventually bomb in the Gulf - I mean, I don't deny the disturbance is actually there. Nor abase needing to monitor it. I just wonder if this might be a rare situ where the mid MDR feature, being ignored, dark-horses the spin-up race. SAL does not leap out as being very preventative per Wisc.edu, nor does the relative shear in that region.

I don't even agree - not sure what the poster is looking at. That circulation mode wouldn't allow an EC engagement. But not sure exactly what they are seeing.

It's interesting pattern of behavior ... Somehow my lawn has been invaded by Alpine Delphinium that emerge perennially, producing an absolutely stunning blue-violate flower. They grow in dense, uniform arrays so jaw-dropping one would have to be a sociopath to so callously run a lawn mower over like Kevin. In fact, neighbors going for walks often stop to observe them in May, commenting their jealousy. "How did you grow those... where can I get those" I don't know. I can only imagine contaminated seed stock when doing autumn over coverage ... years ago before I learned how that sort of lawn appearance is toxic to base-line ecology. One such evidence to that? Bees... All kinds of them. There are vast numbers of pollinating bee species. When they are full bloom, bees of all kinds of shapes and sizes can be seen zig-zagging in and out, and in between the flowering canopy. Bumble bees, and honey bees, and bees in between. In fact, in a silent moment when the background of the town shenanigans happens to drop off, you can hear the whirring buzz of their frenzied foraging. They don't sting. Not once have I been bothered. And I've actually stepped into the patches of the blooming arrays to pull out opportunistic weeds and such. They just ignore me. The softy in me wants to think they know why I'm there. But in reality ... they're just too sated by all that bounty the Delphiniums provide. Singularly too intended on getting even more, the preoccupation won't perceive us a threat. Ha, probably why we haven't been to the I.R. yet

Jeez ... had the thought that Tokage's absorption into the N. Pac circulation manifold might lend to some downstream amplitude over western N/A ...at last, enough to shot across the bow us with a cool shot. But looking at day's GEFs and EPS 850 mb anomalies, they don't appear impressive enough to warrant much hope for that. It just won't be 87... 79 for two days? I dunno It may be a mild back for 2 days, but ... beyond that, the baseline mode of warmer than normal ( ~ Sept 3 --> ) reestablishes itself. In fact, there are really no negative anomalies at all below 50 deg N over the eastern 2/3rd of the continent, right out to the end of those runs. We can't call every cool shot the end of summer, just because it coincides with the calendar time of the year. If we're spending 90 percent of a 384 hour looping above normal ... By the way, even if a hurricane were to MDR its way into rare existence for this season, I see no evidence - for now - that the hemisphere will orient in such a way as to make it an EC ordeal.

Of all guidance, that model will definitely take the opportunity at this range. I was just describing for Ray that I'm on the fence. Model performance persistence, namely ...backing off trough bullies when relaying mid ranges into shorter terms... But, this time, Tokage over the western Pac. Thing is...it's a bit earlier for that correlation to kick in- but, the westerlies have been orchestrating unusually defined whole-scale wave structures all season. This latter aspect "seems" like the hemisphere might be more open to constructive interference - bit of an abstract idea I guess. We'll see. Usually we get a 'shot across the bow' air mass at some point here end of Augie into September. ... like a 76/42, and the air mass bleeds out heat at sunset and the temp falls like someone broke the mercury bulb and its draining - it may be that either way. But in a ferckota way I figure some aspect of CC is to find a way a f-up cool shots, too haha

I figure you're a man of 'who cares how; just get it done' ..mentality in such matters, but that 'cool down' next week may or may not be real in my o More so than just typical model uncertainty, there are reasons to suspect it is just a model artifact of typhoon recurving antics over the western Pacific ... Tokage is just completing that parabolic graveyard motion, and is being absorbed into the westerlies ... As we know, there is a correlative for reinforcing L/W orientation, that lends to western N/A ridge flexing. It's a correlation that is much stronger toward deeper autumn/early winter...but, mm.. I feel with the westerlies being overly active all summer long anyway, albeit high latitude, that "might" open things up some. Question is, how much, if so... I mean from there, the models are routinely over amping troughs in that range, so given any excuse to do so, they'll likely try to sell that. ... if Tokage does effect the wave orientation, they may have more of case, but climo says that's tricky.

Re SNE Friday From what I just looked at re Friday ...if the Euro fields are precisely realized there should be clusters with leading discrete cells exhibiting tendencies for rotation...first NE PA to eastern NY ...then propagating E from noon onward. I like the back tilt with height look that morphs through the region between 18z and 00z. Over that time span, there is a subtle, perhaps crucial wind acceleration from the SW at 925 mb that emerges over the area, prior to the nose of 700 mb acceleration from a W direction on it's heels. That's a +d(shear) that is cyclonic in forcing. Probably why the Euro actually closes off a surface PP contour over eastern NE toward evening. From HFD-BED axis ... ( again, honing this 00z Euro look) the 0-3 km winds may kick more S in the boundary layer. It's intriguing, but erhaps a negative is that these wind fields as described above are not appreciably strong. We're talking 925 mb areal wind field averaging 15kts at 12z, maturing to 25kts between 18 and 00z that afternoon. The 700 mb punches in aft of that behavior (..nearing 18z), with an acceleration ranging from 15 to 35kts or so. Nevertheless, suspending columns of air vertically through those mechanics likely folds over the lower level surface vectors. All this above appears to evolve after 12z thru 18z hosted sufficient surface heating. RH at typical ceiling heights are in the 50% range as modeled. Generation of SBCAPE is on going before trigger time... particularly S of the VT/NH borders with Mass. But, that's not intended to mean clouds slammed shutout no go into CNE either... 500 and 300 mb during the morning don't suggest much of any cloud material at those elevated levels. The moisture loading is in the lower troposphere.

You guys ever notice when watching these IR loops on these convection days, the cloud tops seem like they are always lime green with some lemon yellows over New England ? Seldom do our towers reach the exulted heights of blood red with gnarly black cores like all the other talented, cool good looking regions. Even MT is cooler than us short bussers. Meanwhile we’re posting how we’re getting hammered this and destroyed that hyperbole. I feel like these are the most popular 8th graders. But hey .. maybe there is less correlation between Sat presentation and ground truth.

Kevin may be about to put up a .5 from that cluster plodding along N CT

Here we go again with another ferckota solution by the models with winter looking L/W structures in the midst of towering heights. Meanwhile, ...it's +20+C at 850 mb over N Manitoba - I'm gonna go ahead and aver that trough of New England is partially bogus, as well as >90F almost to Fond Du Lac Saskatchewan

All due sympathies conferred ... We are too even down here along Rt poop - the N-NE Mass reason we're really CNE climate zone regardless of all asshole reasons otherwise. Convection is dying and or drifting over top as a remnant light rain ball pretty much right where that band of clouds set up all morning and didn't start moving N until 1pm... Said band was where the nose of that barrier jet butted up against the synoptic SW flow. Even though we were not in the deep N flow, we were still indirectly porked by it. Funny... one might not think of clouds as synonymous with drought, but the clouds are not allowing the rain to get here.

SE zones look like they're getting hit solidly

• Ongoing Kelvin Wave activity has led to an increase in convection across Africa, with easterly waves beginning to propagate across the Atlantic. This may lead to an increase in tropical cyclone (TC) development over the Main Development Region corresponding with the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane season approaching.

Looks like the synoptic flow is beginning to win the battle as BKN ( bacon skies as we used to call it...), along with a SW--> NE movement, are vis sat loop aspects pushing toward Rt 2. The band is shrinking that demarcates the convergence between it, and that barrier jet that set up eastern-CNE this morning. May end up with some sun and furthering destablization here in the interior, after all. We'll see. Boy...it would have been nice if that "quasi" Miller-B got going just a little sooner late yesterday, because it might have organized a broader swath of drought corrective rains right up eastern NE where it was/is really needed.. Maine got pummeled -

Yeah...I didn't actually anticipate today's convergence sort of stagnating this band through Massachusetts, this time yesterday. I had more than less visualized a day characterized as SW flow with striations of convection firing off ...more like what it looked like over eastern PA yesterday, but up here. That barrier jet up in Maine is butting up against the more synoptic flow trying to erode/push up from the SW, and the two or confluent here. Still air at 74 and dense strata for now.

Yup... It's one in many "Fermi Paradox" explanations that are out there - using the FP to help elucidate the notion. As an extension of the bold, the a evolutionary process that made that reality what it is, effectively ...annihilates the evolutionary process. The catch-22 is a stage most civilities in the cosmos have to successfully evolve through, without either degeneratively turning insular and wasting away, or ... blowing themselves to kingdom come. ...Most do not successfully evolve through that stage. And that is why we don't see a cosmos lit up by the after glow of civilities. I mean...there are other explanations for the FP, but in so far as what it means for us, humanity could very well be on the brink of either degenerative fade, or cataclysmic self-annihilation pathways to extinction. The reason why is that, in the case of our species, we don't store moral memories across generations? They are taught. When population is taught of only conveniences, the virtuosity in knowing how one's provinces come to be, become assumed - I would say entitled, but it really is more like 'unknowable' to consider otherwise. Before ... 150 years ago, the world was a realm where survival required most of daily attention and intelligence. The alternative now? ... gratification like you say. After a couple few short generations, the proclivities you call them are what people think of first.

I wrote ad nauseam about this years ago, on this forum, that I was not sure why GW necessarily means more. Folks likely don't remember - in general around here, that is true. Ha. Kidding but mainly because I was ineffective in communicating the hypothetical bases for my argument. Some may recall. All activity in the atmosphere is based upon restoring forces? There is nothing else. When A=B ...there is no gradient. When A is > or < than B ...there is a force moving in the direction of the inequality arrow. That is weather. If A=B (perfectly entropic) nothing happens. I suspect Scott's question relating to HC expansion is on the right track, based in principle on the former quanta. The HC may in fact be interfering, because at a principle level it might be lowering the deltas ( < or >), wrt to the vertical sounding of the tropics. I've never circled back on that, but I've always wondered whenever I see mass media generated headlines... Tropical Meteorology ( a course in college): there is a typical initial condition sounding structure for vertical temperature and DP, from the surface to aloft, that TCs rely upon. The temperature does not typically represent the unstable lapse rate. The DP gradient between the bottom and the top, does. That's the A potential to move toward B. When the convective process is ignited ... usually by converging sfc vectors... the TCU sustains by way of huge adiabatic heat release. A warm ocean ...definitely supplies an elevated DP source... That's a A > B ( in principle). GW stores more WV ... so, we are elevating DP in the troposphere? That would lower the gradient in the tropical sounding - it seems that is possible. But it's not a black or white, all or nothing, either. It could suppress frequency, but then should a favorable atmosphere transiently evolve over the GW lower troposphere and oceanic coupled boundary layer, it may mean more Category 23 histrionic hyper bombs. The frequency side of the debate, I wonder also if that is being exaggerated by more finite detection, utilizing all these technologies that were unavailable to previous generations. Not sure on that either... Recently I've connected with the notion that an expanding HC does not mean a more intense HC. For all my harang re the subject matter over the last 10 years ... even I was less than clear on that aspect. But it is indeed true... The circulation eddy state of the HC is also weaker, as it spreads out and encompasses greater latitude. That could be a destructive interference.. If the deeper layer easterly belt of wind beneath the HC ( within 15 or so deg of the Equator), is weakening, that increases the ambient shear potential. Between a warming theta-e world, and large scale mechanical changes ... et al, there's reasons to question the notion.

Wednesday May be the highest DP of the summer

I agree ..the ambience is marginally supportive for TC genesis... not"wish"standing, the cloud features do finish as cyclonically curved at a glance. However, and what they don't mention, ...SAL appears to be ingesting it's poison - for the time being.. Not that anyone cares or nothin' ... They do say low chance so meh. Probably covers it. It's just that the operational guidance are trying desperately to ruin my irrational hope that the Basin will put up a zero August during CC.