Typhoon Tip

Yeah… I’d also add that it’s kind of modulating warmer than it looked two days ago - we’re talking about this week one I provide discussions for weather firm and I had pointed out in there last week that we seem to have competing aspects going on in the models. This morning beautiful exemplifies that with that trough later this week now looking completely neutered not even making it to short term actually… The hemisphere is trying to be anomalously convoluted and unusually amplified earlier than normal while at the same time normalizing as the near terms approach. -this is probably related to the fact that all models tend to be over amplified at those extended ranges …maybe Anyway these late middle range early season outbreaks end up being rather tepid by comparison, when verifying. This last weekend is kind of an example - we still managed low to mid 60s as our ping highs; the model charts from last Monday or whatever you would’ve thought we would be upper 40s to mid 50s tops. This mild looking week is kind of doing it with the actual pattern not just with the 850 mbar smear

Mmm. And it’s behavioral aspect actually showing increased deltas in the last 15 to 20 years… simple terms, greater variance than is normal variance even for autumns… You can include springs in that too. Most obviously and likely related to you know what - Though the Y-coordinates” would cement eyes shut in here so futile to write what nobody reads

Considering that 70 or 80% of the months since the year 2000… during the recency of a climate change’s “hockey stick“ rise…, have all ‘winded’ their way to being above normal (however extreme notwithstanding) it’s a safe bet that demonstrative trend would continue. As winter weather enthusiasts we naturally hold out for that 30 or 20%…lol. But, it becomes even less likely to total glorious winters when needing 30 or 20% return rate to succeed all three months of DJF. Taller order But that is in deference to temperature. Most involved in this engagement are actually after the experience of snow… And I would argue just based on my own experience interacting over the years that it’s mostly they are after the drama in the cinema as it’s provided by models and meme, preceding the snow - but that’s another discussion. As far as appealing to that motivation…we can also be decimals above normal and still have a very severe winter with some nested extreme cold outbreaks… couching significant winter storms. To that end we really only need five or six decent events if not two juggernauts, to get a snow total above seasonal normal. In a lot of ways February 2015 nicely illustrates this concept when considering that winter as a whole … But in this era of elevated pwat due to climate change, helps that. So there’s some interpretive argument there where enough in between days are warmer than normal that a month or winter mean on whole may statistically belie the experience.

Yeah I wasn’t asked but … the notion of its usefulness being that it characterizes early behavior of the field is essentially right. At a somewhat more discrete level… from what I gather, lagged statistic correlation to winter suggests that whatever the environmental factors producing early proficiency are, … they tend to last. Think of the study as exposing the tone setter - It just doesn’t really delve deeper into what those factors are the last I had looked into the matter… The correlation like all correlations in nature are not one to one, either. There’s that… plus without knowing what the factors are makes the correlation in general rather shaky as a predictive guide.

Impressive diurnal. That is also an aspect of autumn climo … bottoming out at night and than rocketing in the afternoons. delta 27 so far. 35 62

I was surprised there were not Headlines in place heading into last night down here in interior and/or climo-prone SNE areas. I don't believe we'd had a frost or freeze just yet? convention was always, will issue 'until such a time as one has already occurred' Maybe I missed one...

Here's a brief anecdote ( if moral), check your Provider rates. It's a column usually on the backside of your N-Grid billing statement. Probably similarly placed on most bills regardless of deliverer - NGrid, Southern Energy .... Consolidated Edison, Duke Energy etc... That field on your bill has recently (over the last 10 years) become the most important. It used to always be the delivery charge that was the bigger of the 2. Rather interestingly ... (if not dubiously) the Provider has switched to where the arithmetic (decimals X the average household 1600 hrs), has crept over the delivery service charge - and the gap is growing! Apparently happening 'under the radar' of people's notice. Sorry this became a little longer than I meant it... but I think it's interesting: Case in point. A year ago last summer ... a couple of "SE" (Buffalo, NY) supplier reps were patrolling our neighborhood, stalking schmucks. I admit, I did not sense the predator. Their sale's pitch for .13 kWh was - quite embarrassingly, I admit ... - just a vague reference to some aspect on an electric bill in the moment. Maybe it was more of an intuitive sort of thing, like ... "Yeah, supplier provides the actual electricity - I know" You have to understand the whole history of the individual in this case. I had always been lucky enough where ever I lived, to not have to deal with an electric bills ...Since taking over that responsibility in recent life, where I live, my home happens to be all electric. Heat, water-heat, and stove/oven ... and everything else. So a bit of higher number was dismissibly acceptable ... Kind of like a 'slum dog millionaire' effect, only not winning. Losing That all changed when I opened a warning for disconnect by N-Grid last April, for an outstanding arrears on the order of 2400-and-change. Ummm.... Turns out, that .13 number they were selling lasted until Dec 1 ... more than doubled while everyone was distracted ... This happened to others on my street. It also happened to a friend on mine, ..sort of suggesting its more pervasive; a very similar sort of dubious unrepresented rate hike - not SE but some other outfit. Anyway, doubled or more. So there I was, paying my 250/mo ...while the lapse was was reapplying to the total bill. I'm not one for wild conspiracy theories...but I suspect nonetheless that there is some design behind doing that. If you are the average schmuck just trying to keep head above the overwhelmingly vast, uncategorizable chaotic sea of modern distractions... Companies have caught onto that 'drowning' distraction, and leverage it to their greedy advantage. I think we all know this... Cable companies began doing this decades ago, with big entry deals ... After some time goes by, a partially transparent and very small text appears somewhere on a billing statement, indicating a rate hike ... while the Trade Towers were falling and Pandemics and general dystopian media for stimulus junkies were becoming the zeitgeist. Next thing you know, your 75 buck/mo sweet deal was ballooning to 150, and since you were on auto-deduct/e-transfer protocols with your bank, you were susceptible to not realizing after a year of it. You now owe them a testicle. Of course, x-y-z company was perfectly willing to keep rolling the difference back into your acct principle so long as their getting their 75 - until they tap you on the shoulder to collect. They get to tell you, 'We notified you by mail.' They got you by the ballz. Done deal... The other aspect that is sort of borderline collusive about it all... Climate Change. yup - I suspect that supplier companies are raising rates ...claiming it's because of supply and demand which is a lie. It's really because they know that 90% of energy is still being generated by fossil fuel consumption, a practice that is going to end in 20 years or ... humanity - pick. This is their exit strategy on that industrial dying ways and means. There are technologies out there that blow your mind. Scientists have found ways to create electricity out of the ambient air... Plus, fusion has been sustained in Tokamak research for the first time in recency. So ... tell 'em 'that will never fly' one day.. matter of time. Somewhere between those necessarily viable innovation solutions projects an entire power grid that is fundamentally different in both infrastructure and supply, that most likely ...sans the SE's and the Duke Energy's and the N-Grid's of the world. They're cashing in to cash out in other words.

Just about right on the climo button for color-up around this are of Mass

"It doesn’t hurt here. I doesn't hurt here. It hurts riiight here"

Yeah if we decouple in time I think a pretty widespread frost in the interior it’s pretty likely early Saturday

Meh … drought in this area of the continental North America comes with an entirely different climate-base suggested connotation than it does in places like California ir the inter-mountain west or even in the interior southeast… We’ve been over this a million times but, we get dry episodes and it’s just something to occupy peoples time - I guess - while in wait for the preferred fanfare of winter to return. Yawner. that cold front coming tomorrow evening it’s gonna be a nasty whiplash… A behavior that is sort of in itself a hallmark that we are already change seasons because that is something that usually happens in winter. It may not show up in the sky or the trees or the air but I’m talking about the way the weather is actually behaving. Bit of a conceptual/spatial kind of take on matters but when you go from 70 to 75° to 49 … that steep of a corrections is impressive

We’re getting somekind of winter expression before the end of this very month it would more than merely seem. With say …, 60/40 or 40/60 of the GEFs EPS blend, respectively, would be unavoidable - we either snow and/or meaningfully load supportive whether the former actually takes place or not. Am aware the +AO but qualitative circumstance isn’t that clean nor simple. The hemisphere has been trying to enter the AA phase structure, during what appears to be an usually early and massive +PNA …(those indexes can become resonant in some cases) an aspect I’ve been seeing in the super synopsis, albeit vague/vestigial, since mid Sept …now it’s getting harder to ignore, in fact it’s actually coherent at this point. So I feel it’s time to mention. It’s not unprecedented and it’s no reach to assess snow plausibilities in Octobers… Particularly since 2000, the quantitative consideration has been proven relevant. Presently in the techniques, and the guidance envelope those are based upon … this is the most impressive early detection/expression for this autumn folding hemisphere phenomenon I’ve seen sine the era of October snow began - we’ll see where this goes without making any promises. Without it in the air … snow recreational industries may get a head start … This may also be gradient loaded with oscillatory behavior between transient near Indian Summer swaths replaced by rather -anomalous 850s relative to date The greater anomaly behavior being in the deltas. One of those loads probably favors eventually catching tweener disturbance in the open for snow hats on the pumpkin potential. airs of 1995 in the general abstraction

Yup. why they did away with the old format- Did the Trump administration hand a mandate down to suck balls? I want them sued and the Director of technology or whatever, that persons face to be smashed against a monitor until they’re an inch of consciousness. Having said that… What is “RadarScope”

I can’t stand that product… It’s got terrible resolution …horrible load times on regular PCs. The older format was better. But I’m not sure - I’m wondering if I’m not using the product correctly

Do you actually like NWS radar

It’ll be 74 Thurs at 3 heh just sayn

Yeah… Despite the meme- sentiment in here for 1995 and so forth… the thermal profile on the Nam looks like Thursday is gonna be a shocker - it may actually get above 75° with light SW wind under still tepidly warm October sun and no clouds. For places between New York City and Boston thatve been hung up between 47 and 55 in this April redux … that’s gonna be pretty sweet – Friday too

Lol, why not – autumn was dead

I was at UML at the time… Which obviously we know is in northeastern part of the state. Yeah 3 or 4” sleet snow mix actually My parents down in Acton was more like silver slush in patches. -gradient on that little minoring event. That smartly colder and as you intimated… Never turned back enough to melt back to bare ground around the campus. In fact I think there was another event before Thanksgiving it really sealed the earth under a sarcophagus of cryo-

Ho man … I’d be lying if I said I didn’t like the 1995 vibe to that extended GEFs that’s been sneakily emerging as of late

Same here dude, 'cept I haven't turned it on. House is actually 57 hah. Just back from a run and enjoying the cool, and then it's a evening sweater and bed by 10 or 11 ... If I can just get by through tomorrow, Thursday's gon' be 70, HFD-LWM and the windows go open. Must make the 15th -

Chill pockets getting pinched off from Canada early… It’s been a recurring theme over the past ten and in particular five years – don’t get used to it. Because it’s just as apt to fade into a winter paradigm that bears no resemblance to this, once the gradient of the hemisphere really kicks in and we set up a baseline Rossby signal. Or maybe we’ll just hold this and it will just get stormier and colder … I don’t know. Point is it hasn’t been very reliable to get cool air early. Not a very good indicator. Yeah I really should have the heat on in here my hands are getting cold but I have this thing every year where I try to get to October 15… I’ve lived in this house 10 years and I think this might be the second time I’ve considered doing so before that date.

But mid 40s here under cloud canopy and raw wind is a month too early. Granted it’s only 9 am but ew I’d like a sold week of upper 60s or 70 one last time before having to commit to this shit. With sun too. Man … looking at the NAM grids in the mid Atlantic tho … .2 to .7 every 6 hrs, none stop, for two days in life sucking chill … ‘nough said Let’s hope we can strand one of these deals in a December whence temps are well behaved.

Yeah perfect maple sapping wea - oh wait

I'd be encourage with that temp and prec distribution if I were a winter enthusiast ! Firstly ... that distribution suggests they are asking for a positive PNAP base-line stated ( that means more +PNAs than -PNAs) Secondly... that's likely to get compressed E as the most likely 'correction vector', nearing 40N and above latitudes. That would place the mean baroclinic alley of ill-repute right down our block of naughty affairs. Thirdly ... I'm proud of NCEP/CPC for having the courage to put out any kind of a chart containing the word 'below,' when in deference to either winter, or an outlook effort. That may in fact be the first time they've down that in 54 years ...kidding, but it is a rarer tact by them. Fourthly, ... just some supposition but ... they are bringing that look into the NP as far E as the western Lakes... despite whatever bias it is that preferentially keeps them banging out positive temperature outlooks as baser canvas. Without hitting the cafeteria at NCEP and opening a dialogue over lunch ... that's sort of implicating them as being bullish.