Typhoon Tip

It's a barely a cut-off ... Technically it is, but it cuts one contour - 582 no less. We've been 95 degrees under that non-hydrostatic depth, and here? we're using it to ignite a 2" 24-hr cumulative rain on the EPS? Plus the moving around as you say? I was pretty sure - as we all were ( or should have been) - that the Euro was over-assessing that scenario it had drowned the region in. I still think the whole thing could normalize further. Fwiw ( no much perhaps ...) but the GGEM has scattered nuisance convection dappled throughout the MA/ NE regions, trending south as the high eventually takes over. I think it'll all come down to how that mid level tuck goes on. It doesn't seem to be that there is real S/W material being sunk into that eastern OV, but mainly this is an over-the-top 500 mb ridge that back-calves out the flow and creates more of a weakens there. The Euro does have just enough of an amplitude bias in that D5-7 range ( which that was at the time it Noah'ed the region yesterday) to wonder. Pro: There's likely to be a theta-e pooling scenario from Monday into Tuesday, either way. And a low level flow that is likely to orchestrate into a longish easterly fetch along the BC axis, with tendencies for more of SSE convergence from S of the front. It doesn't take much trigger and where it rains it may need rad mode settings to see the dump.

One of those storms in 2015's bomb February actually was like that... It was almost entirely driven by a flat-wave and a cold high situated N, with east fetch coming into a teens air mass... It looked a lot like that yup. We got about 15 -20" lollypops pan wide out of that...

I mentioned this earlier but it's a sneaking trend... The whole idea of the frontal draping through the region with pooling theta-e and easterly anomalies ...blah blah, is just getting more robust in time. I wonder if we're seeing the over-compensating run phenomenon at this point though??

Oh for that matter ... transition seasons are becoming increasingly blurred anyway. Snowing on Halloween so frequently, and then onward to a fast sheared flow in Jan and Feb that is largely, consistent pattern prohibitive, pretty much means that Autumn begins at the end of September and ends on April 1

Yeah... that frontal drape from NE Pa to CNE by late Sunday and particularly into Monday is being introduced by guidance. The Euro is more discrete with any convective responses, where the GFS is a smeared miasma of QPF... but synoptically, it's all the same really. Anyway, have to see how that evolves over the weekend - it matters for hydro deficits. But a modest polar high scooting E of Ontario in both those guidance between Sun-Tues should suppress that boundary S in time.. Sunday may be 85+ in a quick dose of heat ...then Monday we crackle and down pour in a few lucky locales in between more clouds suppressing warmth. Then end up a for a day or two in a cooler easterly flow despite the 850s still torching overhead, mid week. That's what the synopsis looks like for now... Hot pattern ...cheating to find a way to be normal and may slight below even. Ha. You wouldn't guess it if rip-and-read the charts. These are evidence through the discrete analysis.. .and, are likely to change anyway - just for now.

Wouldn’t ever happen with a system of that nature. It was triple stream phase of extraordinary special dimensions thus integrating a substantial fraction of the to hemispheric power into its ‘machinery’ Think of it like an atmospheric “rogue wave” phenomenon … There’s really no way to bottle up that much raw power into the torsional spatial manifold of cutoff/‘hook and latter’ scenario … Ironically … we’re far in way more likely to bust through stack records off a two stream standard model staller and shoot for the long game/duration. Get 3”/hr rates stalled for 12 hrs then another 12 hrs with meso bursts inside a rotting comma head would shatter records. In CC we’re handing out snow rates like that as though it’s routine … just got to get the storm granted. It’s probably impressive it’s hasn’t happened yet and we’re playing with the odds

You know ... it's not just about, 'they don't come like the use to in the old days' - it's been 30 f'n years since we've had one of those. ... sort of. lol

Dec 1992 ...the very best winter storm in my personal ranking, followed a short 2nd by the Cleveland Superbomb, 1978

PF may get some bangers in a couple of hours. Line of decent boomers racing across upstate NY.

This may be the most utopian syrup air we've drunk in this summer thus far. I'm like ...my god - you just stand there looking around. We've had some beauts but this seems to be exotically soothing for some reason.

Not so much during the day but if you're driving late at night down these two-lane roads around here they can often be seen darting around under the cover of night.

I wonder what the lowest Invest record is ...lol

I've wondered this myself upon occasion, but historically ... I haven't found enough of them that precisely motioned along the Gulf's axis - assuming that would be required. Some were close, but all I've seen happen to cut across it at oblate angles - but even that would cause a TC to decay. The Baja side of Gulf of California has a cordillera that ranges to some 3,xxx terrain heights in the mid-south, to nearly 9,xxx in the north, despite the fact that the widest breadth of the entire Baja ranges no more than 100 miles nearing the U.S. border, to just 50 miles at other points along its extension. The Gulf its self only rangers from 70 to 125 (appr.) On the eastern side of the Gulf, the Mexico ... It may be simply a matter of a TC never having perfectly collocated along the axis of the Gulf, such that it's core is not inhibited by these near by terrain features. TCs come in different sizes, but by the time a TC gets to the latitudes of the mid and upper extension of the Gulf, it would be larger and thus the width of it's physical core is likely a tricky fit. To mention, air is having trouble moving from the outside of the core, to the inner region, due to those terrain blocking on either side. Just a supposition ... but, should a TC enter the mouth of the Gulf and move precisely up the central axis ...while accelerating to a very fast forward motion, it's unclear how much of that would actually make "landfall" at the head waters... but, the miasma of the atmospheric density associated with the transport would probably 'tsunamis' a huge rain event into the lower California/U.S. as it arrived.

And it would be a neat trick if it did that prior to mid winter seasonal SS stressing - if even then. The Pacific warm pool, as it has come to be known in oceanographic and climate circles, is a recurring warm eddy that is become multi-seasonally coherent ... Which by convention of spanning years means it is surviving modulating longer-term teleconnection modes, regardless, too Folks may not want to hear this, but attribution science from some sources have eliminated all other causes ..leaving just GW as the reason for its persisting. Phys.org is a site that does a decent job in re-baking advancing studies into consumable material - they'll typically mention the publication where the original work can be found. An example of a study, https://phys.org/news/2022-06-systematic-pool-pacific-due-human.html There are other references to it the warm pool. In fact, I recall the very earliest global-scaled attempts at super computed environmental modeling, attempting the projected future after ..so on and so on amount of climate change from way back in the early 1990s. Those primitive technologies ( by today's state of the tech/science) predicted that the NE Pacific would tend to ridge, send the N/A continent above 40 N into relative cooler offset region. That magnitude of those characterization may not succeed as such.. but, two present day aspects hearken back to those earlier attempts - for me anyway.. The first being the Pacific warm pool phenomenon. It's sea, not air, but given that PDO is largely a resonance response over time with the mode of atmosphere SS stressing/distribution ...that perhaps argues that fractional increases in ridging in the Pac NW/ EPO domain space may have been more subtly a modulating influence - the ocean betrays that forcing. The other aspect is that despite N/A also warming along with the rest of the world, we are slightly cooler N of 40 N and E of Canadian Rockies.. One can kind of make that out here ( c/o NASA), ... where the N/A land region is lagging some behind the other N. Hemisphere over-land regions. This is the 1884 --> 2021 aggregate temperature difference. So the combination of the Pac warm pool and this above.. seems to give at least a nod back to the primitive climate model efforts from decades ago. And so... the Pac warm pool may be inexorably connected to climate change ... I mean if it's anchored in that causality, one must wonder if the -PDO is a new base-line

Climate tends to be realized + whatever it is doing to change ... But in this concern, having Kevin and Scott be AN for August while the rest of use are in a deep negative, is setting a beautiful precedence for where the winter numbers will occur to offset these imbalances ... lol I'm totally fine with the rest of us getting tons of winter precipitation while eerily ...those two discrete, small locations are always seemingly missed -

As a remarkably fortuitous result ...the 12z Euro demos precisely what I was illustrating with words, re my thoughts for September. If one loops the his link, https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500h_anom&rh=2022083012&fh=loop&r=npac&dpdt=&mc= ...it's a beautiful teachable moment/product cinema, showing an absorption of western Pacific Basin TC, and subsequent large -WPO response immediately, then translates to a -EPO burst .. In fact, if anything this result at D8-9-10 needs to consider Euro tendency to over amp features in that range. Nevertheless, if 80% of that mass field distribution works out, we're setting up a broad deep layer NW flow through the Canadian Shield. It's as near as D9 in this movie above at the end of his run. That's a bit sooner than even I anticipated but... like I also said at the time, this would be waiting on aspects to emerge in time. I just didn't think the emergence would happen a mere 2 hours later LOL. Anyway, the ending D10 would probably suppress the 80 isotherm S of the 40N ... perhaps deeper should it materialize. First western N/A

Thought you sea-ice hobbyists might find this interesting... https://phys.org/news/2022-08-greenland-ice-sheet-faster-irreversibly.html It's land based snow/ice and not really specific to arctic sea ice, but ...seeing as the N Polar cap doesn't have the southern continent upon which is saddles the ice, ( like Antarctica) I think it's worth it to consider Greenland's capacity for storage and release in the total manifold of the northern cap. We should be including the sea ice gain loss with the Greenland quota - or at least exhibiting interest in both.

yeah... the DP's definitely closer to -18 man, this is hot as ballz down here. 92/69 averaging these town home stations. KASH is 91/71 ... Thing is, we haven't really suffered the highest DPs imaginable this year... I haven't actually seen a lot of 90+ coupled up with 70 DPs, so today is right up there for that combo HI thing. I mean it's not as bad as the history week of 98s or nothing no. But it sure looks like summers back is broken, huh - lol

My thoughts on September as posted in the last August thread ... ha! are that with the activation of the western Pacific tropical season (delayed but not denied) that makes for uncertainty at the quasi-seasonal outlook scope ( 1 month lead). Typhoon Tokage recurved and 5 days later, we saw a modest 500 mb anomaly roll south through the GOA region of the NE Pac, ..triggering a W N/A wave response --> lending to tomorrows trough and cooler air arrival. ...There was at least a transient AB Pacific flow type response that has succeeded. The impetus being, these are effectual changes. Not all recurvies are coherent in that regard... I suspect the predominating western N/A ridge signal all summer and still on going, is why/helping this time. The two aspects are actually a constructive interference. ...should the recurve phenonmenon continue in the means, these evidences suggest that early season cool incursion E of 100W may become more prevalent. Hint hint, I suspect it may. Why? the last known MJO related momentum was in the Phase 1/2 region of the RMM, which is correlated to that behavior. In a sense, ...Newton's first law of inertia applies: objects at rest stays at rest and an object in motion stays in motion with the same speed and in the same direction unless acted upon by an unbalanced force. Typhoon Hinnamnor is modeled into the China Sea but appears that is as far as it will get before curving around that longitude. Then 98W may stall while that passes over head, while intensifying, and then it may rise in latitude on its heel. Experimental, admittedly ..but it's behavior that fits the circulation modal history and thus going forward. So combining the Pacific behavior and the other constructive interference schemes above ( or quasi in in that regard ) .... that means I've written way too much for the average reader to give a shit anymore and they are now thumbing Instagram posts. In short, I suspect we see more +PNAP structures over N/A, that are not likely a part of the present catalogue of available guidance means at all really. It's an expectation for an emergence. That's probably when summer really 'ends'

Heh... this is what "attribution science," a very quickly evolving discipline .. if for no other reason, out of shear necessity, is for. We can separate out aspects like 'conditional vulnerability' in a process known as "scaling equations" - I'm sure you've been exposed to that, I'm speaking to straw people and the general audience here. But that leaves remainders after what has been accounted for in the total polynomial affecting/effecting the environment, and if that remainder satisfied the equation of AGW ( for example..), with very close tolerances ... that leaves AGW as a high confidence causality. That's how I've gathered the concepts of how attrib. works... And it's mathematic and doable/intuitive. 2010 and now, are within the CC manifold, fwiw - I'm seeing increasing frequency of attribution science - related findings landing on AGW ... and CC in general, as the problem. I understand your sentiment and respect it. I could be wrong in the way I lean, but I do lean toward this being presciently suggestive of the future and probably not going to end well. I LEAN.... ? I don't doom...that's different. I'm trying to be proactively warning without sounding like a zealot - which is almost impossible in the present cultural climate of wanton compartmentalizing people into political and/or fringe lunacy at knee jerk scope and value... (Jesus!) whenever this subject matter "necessarily" enters dialogue. But whatever... My biggest fear - other than babies drowning ... - is that these kinds of events will spark of massive diaspora/climate refugee phenomenon. Like Serbian/Baltic region ...but happening everywhere like a slow moving panic wave... Sounds like sci-fi dystopia writing, but we already saw a mini version of that when drought choked off the lively hood at sovereign scales in that Baltic region about 15 or so years ago. Anyway, that might set of geodesic instabilities ... here comes the wars... There are really two climate changes, with some lag. The primary is the geo centric stuff; the 2ndary is the human response climate.

Whaaa ... didn't know this is/was going on. - although ..psfft, it's gotten to the point that someone some where is doing a 1::750 year return rate shit show on this planet, seemingly daily. You know, wild digression but general civility ( uh ...prior to the proceeding removing much of the "civility" from the complexion of our species) really needs learn to associate CC with two aspects. A global realm that is warming .... + destruction At a minimum, a destruction of the 'way life used to be,' when that demolition is not physical manifesting to life, property (probably should say 'geography' here), and infrastructure.

yup ...I'm not fully convinced NYC-S VT won't cash in off of it with some 00z to 04z either spill over boomers or perhaps collapsing wind pulses and residual vil crawler lightning, under which .4 to .8" of rain I like the 06z, 12 km NAM with that super cell in NW Mass ... Just saying this stuff because I walked out to sample the air this morning, and the aroma hearkened like that first convection/dewy morning you get in early June.

Heh ... it had better! right ? the statement you bolded was meant more in jest - humor... The missive overall is sardonic comedy. Brewbeer got it - fw his emoji iw That said, I would still focus on this: "At some point, unanticipated (adding this word) persistence penetrating through institutional methods should start to question the validity of the methods" That is clad advice in life - ...but as it pertains to this, expectations of winter may or may not "justifiably" include snow and cold - not engaging in that hyper discrete aspect. I am however definitely confident in the notion that they are 'f'ed up'

has to to break at some point ... the problem is, not sure if anyone objective in this engagement/hobby/profession has bothered to notice, but autumns have been particularly topsy-turvy in recent decade(s). Autumns have always been changeable since the Earth decided to tilt with respect to the plain of the ecliptic ... but no: the scale and degree of stochastic instability is on a different level than the previous 300 some odd years of climate suggestion. It is summer and then it is winter and then it is summer ... prior to the winters sucking donkey ballz - that is the leitmotif, the recurring theme, regardless of ENSO this, polar index that, AMOCs and PDOs and whatever overly-reliant astrological teleconnector is in use. At some point, persistence penetrating through institutional methods should start to question the validity of the methods. Winter does not = snow and cold, anymore... It has evolved to = f'ed up. The problem with that is... no one does, because it means no winters. And then there is no forum. Oops - hahaha. No but my point was going to be, it seems harder to define a sort of 'week the back broke' ... I guess the easy way to do it is to graph every years diurnal averages down to the day. And then look for the inflection points. That's the point of no return - I'm wondering if more recent curves have multiples or approach that. Of course...heat enthusiasts will feel jilted if there are still runs toward 90 F beneath a given year's inflection but.. you know, 'back broke' is bs in the first place and seems an unreconcilable muse anyway.

Get used to it. … the heat aspect. What does NASA know? - I tend to agree with NOAA and/or NASA re WV injection … which probably isn’t saying much. Lol But water vapor injected into an ambient atmosphere pressure that ranges fro 100mb (bottom) to .04mb (top) would disperse very rapidly due to saturation vapor pressure, as the plume first entered. So it’s spread out probably approaching homogeneity by now … it’s a potent greenhouse gas but, likely too gossamer in this state to significantly augment the temperatures - which nothing unusual is occurring.. If there was some form of planetary scaled mechanical forcing it would register in part as a thermal inversion