Typhoon Tip

I’ll take a -PNA undercutting a -EPO any day

She inherited her brother’s surgically altered nose

If you want to survive in here… you can’t take it personally. Lol

I don't have any problem assuming warmer than that when looking over these synoptic metrics; the correction vector is pointing up wrt interpolate machine guidance. Ex, this happened prior to the big warmth, Nov 5-11th 2020 - few may recall that week because the region was still in after gawk over that 4-6" Oct 30 snowfall. But we were 76 to 82 ..84 regionally for some 4 or 5 days-worth of that span. I distinctly recall the MEX/ or any bar graphs having trouble seeing it, too. They were 68ing us - but this can probably checked.. don't kill me. heh. I've seen this before though. Climo application to those number sets makes those products questionable. The 500 mb pattern comparison then and now are vaguely similar.

28 to 71 here (so far) delta 43 largest in years. Have seen 39, two 37s and a handful of 34 .. 35s 43

Hm... I think you meant, 'slower' so it can be a Snower' It's a lala fantasy but just for sake of discussion, that would end around miss SNE and clobber Maine most likely there -

Heh

unfortunate aspect about Novie warmth in that particular product is that climatology will destroy it before the numbers hit the output file -

Sorry to keep bring this up but the difference is stunning. 28 at 8 am, 64 at noon. 36 diurnal is impressive enough, but we may get 40 out of this thing. Still 2 hours of an unabated sun to go, that still offers some heat - ... don't worry winter folk, the solar min starts in 9 days. heh.

28 to 61 so far... nuts

wow, 28 to 50 in 3 hours. Not bad... but ORH is 60 f'um one?!! zonk

Ha ha... this is like new inductee night at AA in here sometimes... "Hi, my name is Mike, and I'm a winterholic" "HI Mike, mike mike", over lapping, fading.

mm...I've been noticing the EPO retro thing for a while now. It wasn't very obvious at first. Several paragraphs incoming beyond this point: 10 or so days ( 2 weeks) ago, the extended at the time (ens too) were thrusting the EPO ridge. The operational versions occasionally even began bursting rather aggressively. But then, I noticed that the eastern N/A heights were never receding - in fact...going warmer... That's 'okay' ...I mean the -EPO teleconnector is a bit of a lag correlation here... The only time a -EPO onset directly cools this far down stream in short order, is if we are already IN a favorable L/W construct ( 2015 being the king example of the 'not have to wait' model). But, then ... --> retros began in the guidance over successive runs ... Kept happening, too. Repositioning the ridge toward the western limb of the EPO domain space... Sometimes even opting to have it not even in the EPO region so much, but squarely over the GOA, a configuration that pushes deeper heights through the Rockies and would make all this a moot point, anyway. There is room for hope not based purely on fantasy, however... nested in that complexity - just in case the above does not offer enough popsicle headache as it is... It would be low probability 'white knight' for colder enthusiasts, but is at least non-zero. The GGEM/GEF/EUR ens anomaly products have been an old standard metric for me, for assessing a feel for where the direction the continental temperatures may be heading. It's not just that, but NINAs tend to cool off autumns in Canada (it's after that they f* the year over but we'll cross that bridge, lol). So it seems there are mechanisms in play that fit the climo for ENSO ( which yes...I have a problem with using now, more so than I used to do to CC but... I'd rather not incur the wrath of Ray on NFL Sunday, when we're looking most likely forward to a debacle loss against the loathsome Jets already.) Okay, now that everyone's migraines are sufficiently wound up... all I'm saying is that sometimes the cold loads into the Canadian shield first..even if west initially, then future model trends (yet to manifest at the given point in time) adjust to it - it's kind of a low frequency feedback from continental forcing. The L/W is forced to "split" ... the flow bifurcates somewhere around 100 or 110 west... That sets the table for cold bleeding out across S. Canada - low and behold, the GGEM/Euro are hitting something similar already. Not sure that should be ignored, because there's a pretty loud climate inference/precedence for gradated cold NW against a SE ridge.. Now, that scenario is going to draw one's eyes naturally SE, first ... because we Meteorologist are really finger painting kindergarten artists that think that, "red is pretty!" But, that flow construct seldom lends to warmth ~ ORD-BOS latitudes. Basically, we may be mild to warm, even very warm if aspects break right, over the next 10 days but don't get used to it. If there was no -EPO at all, I'd say we're f* because the ENSO regardless, that -PNA appears to be locked into the Pacific footprint whether that is Nina this or decoupled that aside. The short version of this is that I am a little leery of this "west biased -EPO" aspect not eventually modulating toward an above tendency mid month...

Good thing summer's back's broken though. phew -

28 was the low here. Now, 33 ORH, 1000' up, 42 was the low, now 51 33 51 That is how you invert a sounding... and fake enough cold to enable winter geeks into believing the season's changed when looking at all available guidance and techniques there ... there is no winter ever again!

SAI? what you lost me

I believe the causal-link is in the HC expansion ... The expanding equatorial cell doesn't mean the cell is a stronger circulation eddy - in fact, it is weaker...albeit spread out over a larger integral, the same mass transport... blah blah. But the point being, that weakening is disconnecting the previous systemic triggers that got El Nina/warming ENSO's to ... Probably rooted in planetary sloshing by way of longer term low/secondary frequencies associated to MJO's but that's hypothesis. The expanding HC and weakening momentum is screwing up all that circuitry though. The last warm ENSO failed to register many expected impacts along the climate routes that it typically does... part of this. Also, I suspect it is partly involved in why we have seen many hemispheric circulation modes,...since the aughts ... observably uncouple from the base-line ENSO state during winters.

Is he sexually involved with the entire fossil fuel sector of the Industrial world

yeah...it's coming back to me. I was more raised 80s ...but staples and pin fragments ... weird stuff. I wonder if any of that was traced back to the deviant psychotic - I don't recall ever seeing a news story about someone 'getting caught' tainting. hm. You know, I remember there was once a Tylenol scare back then, ...early 80s I think. Man I was young... but I used to get migraines ( aura kind.. actually still do from time to time) and that was back before NSADS like Advil. Which neither work terribly well, but Advil is better. Migraines ...they're a different kind of neurological thing where most over-counter pain alleviation are less useful... But Tylenol was the only choice other than Aspirin, which really ...Asprini never helped me ever. In fact, it added nausea to a near death headache. wtf am I talk oh yeah, there was a string of deaths because someone some how was getting cyanide into Tylenol containers. You know, 'kill the pain'. I remember being terrified that I wouldn't have any means at all to fight the extraordinary .. very very special kind of headache agony that can only be described to the listener by way of actually having the listener ...get a f*ing migraine.

I saw a CNN margin headline last week, ...some SE interior/rural woman ( of course the mug shot couldn't be more unappealingly grim and glower lookin,' like they always are if not also for affect...), was indicted on negligent homicide because her 18-mo old daughter 'found the pieces of candy'. You know... tiny child, red pieces of candy.... Not likely a situation exercised in a great deal of restrain once the stash was found. Probably devoured the whole lot of it... Of course it was interior SE U.S. rural, right - You know, just a comment on social mores ... It's so fantastically delicious how we are not supposed to stereotype for what is 100% f*ing true about whatever it is that is being absolutely and correctly f*ing labeled!

This is how people are, anyway, regardless of genre/context. The Internet 'socializing' just pulls that specific human attribute out and particularly showcases it - lol... No, but regardless of domain, people don't take responsibility very willingly for what they don't want to perceive as being true. It's not just a weather thing. It got society into trouble when they couldn't/didnt want to believe the hype behind a certain president's chances to be elected, and being unable to do so... cost the election - probably.... I mean lots of moving parts there, but all gears grinding, the 'threat' was ignored or at minimum, not taken seriously enough. Boom. Just an example.

Oh yeah ...'90s. I think I said 80s but it was more 90s.

Basically .. .teetering with a dystopian melt-down of society constructs - yup. I agree with what I suspect you are dancing with there... To quote an oft' miss-used trope, we find our selves culturally fighting off a rather Orwellian stench. It's sort of incarnate. There's a histrionic wave surging through modernity, that is a stimulus response to all that is zapping the minds of the populations that constitute modernity... It's basically this simple: take a community in a state of quiescence; destabilize the status quo significantly enough; panic ensues; stability dissolves. That basic recipe we are witnessing, extended beyond a single generational time span is consistent with present global state of affairs. Due to technology? - I don't want to impugn it like a fringe ideologue, but fact of the matter is..it matches a pattern that appears to recur throughout history. So is borne a hypothesis of mine, venturing into anthropology of modern man (which I am a Meteorologist so it's a bit of a stretch HAHAHA) But weather guys/gals tend to see patterns in shit. I don't know. But looking back across history... what has happened a decade or two (or shorter) prior to most of the large scaled states of duress (war)? - a wave of unsettling information disrupted the status quo. In more modern times, the radior preceded WW1 ...--> WWII became incensed and was really a continuation of the same hostility, but Industrial Revolution's tech began to alter humanity and provide even more informational resources that offered more corruption of assumption and lent to populous movements ..inevitably WWII. Surveilance of foreign affairs became the paranoia affair of all the "world Pentagons" so ... we become Military response happy species - those that guide in part or fully within Industrial advantage. But if we go back, paranoia and destabilization can be linked to the fall of the Roman Empire... There are other examples. War was preceded by waves of destabilzing senses of mass security. We are in that state with how the Internet has been transformative. Hence the "prediction" may not end so well ...I mean, if there's any truth to the former hypothesis.

yeah... folks initial response to that missive, they seem too focused on the exact words instead of seeing the essence of 'dark humor' point? I'm not saying tainted treats is ubiquitous practice. I'm speaking to the holiday's TOT practice being sullied by a panoply of reasons; at what point do folks begin to evaluate the futility of the engagement and stop forcing it? ... if they are jumping through weather, or Pandemic, or pathos in society. As far as the tainted candy, I "think" that was a fad among nut jobs more like the 1980s? - but that's no sociological aver. But -et el- nowaday, that "might be" something one would question more so than ever. I mean, this expose' proving that there are far more people amongst us coveting a wish to do harm, randomly, triggered by their own unpredictable psychosis - at what point does the 1980s become fun for fucks again. It's more of a frustration tongue in cheeker

It's probably regional/ethos -determined behavior, but around SNE ... are children even TOTing on Halloween any more? It seems there are too many protocols to make that a faith's perfection anymore. Like...you have to inspect all the candy - if you are a good parent/care giver. And at some point in doing so, the spirit of it all is so ruined it almost gets embarrassing that your actually inspecting fucking candy. If it is that much trouble, why are we doing this? I guess maybe it's a learning op, a life lesson for kids never to trust the largess of anyone, and that community spirit of any kind is in reality, a "fauxity" that can't be trusted and is bullshit. Great! On the flip side, having poison and/or pins and needles lodged into mini Snickers ...is just the sort of evil that should be represented by the celebration demons - so there's that too. Humanity has gone and made the date literal. I'm being snarky ... obviously. Still, the whole idea of it seems exposed and sort of fading - like some future generation would tell their grand kids, 'back when we used to -'. We had Halloween "canceled" ( how does one cancel that? Like is some cop going to arrest a kid for TOTing) locally like 5 times in the last 7 years for either snow storms or pandemics ... And if it's a risk anyway in a year when those factors aren't intervening, it just seems like why even engage when there's so many hoops to jump through. interesting-