Typhoon Tip

I and other Mets and climo guys have exchanged observations over the last 10 years relating to this pre-lapse and lapsing of cold season phenomenon. October snow and May flurries have gotten out of control and piling up too much in incidence numbers and well... without getting into a 'irreconcilable' climate squabble with Ray ... we all just need to realize that these metrics aren't really metrics ...not when the climate is unstable. They can't be - they only signify the last time the instability did it's randomness. If we really want to chap asses and start a fight, we could argue that CC is lengthening winter so far that it it's losing distinctive identity altogether. My internal sarcams have at times began thinking of recent winters as more like permanent windy autumns. Like all autumns, they can contain a cold snap and snow event...

Heh.. looks like the Euro's artificially amplifying that trough through S-SE Canada toward the end of next week. Not shocked if that tones down some 20% ... In fact, the models have been whole scale alternating much more than that regarding that.. but for now, we happened to have agreement on more. Still, all guidance is guilty of seeing that range through amplifier... That said, as these air mass get into near term - at this time of year - we can start to see the radiative cooling potential better. For example, we can't really use machine numbers for KFIT/KASH ... KBED out in rural reality for tonight. This is a 'shot before the shot across the bow' air mass, so to speak. Gossamer warmth is quickly going to be escaping to outer space and probably within an hour of the sun hitting the western tree line. Could be a solid geekscapade watching the temp go down like a disgraced cosmonaut this evening. I bet we hit the DPs 1 am. It just 'feels' like a 39er.

Yeah I mean it could certainly be just something about 'this area' but they've been crisscrossing and honking in groups of 4 to 8 at random times all summer. We do have old kettle ponds and small lakes around here, as well as the Nashoba River - it may be that we're just like an aviary airport and my town is under an approach path.

Up...there it is...disconnected ... Good luck TC enthusiasts -

Morning satellite reveals a system that looks like it wants to disconnect the mid level vorticity clean off the low levels ... but it's hangin' in there. You know..it would almost be fitting for this season if that were to just go ahead and happen, and then watch an open swirl with a single CB wrap it's guts around Hisp. like a bug on windshield.

It's may be a useful reminder that NOAA/NHC average forecast error for 120 hours is ~ 175 nautical miles. In this monitoring effort there's a lot of circumstantial sensitivity spanning that distance, at that time. Namely, interactions with land.

Not to poop on the optimism but… that doesn’t look like an overachiever to me - it looks tilted backwards; that deep convection, albeit impressively cold and persistent, appears to be on the eastern edge of the circulation. Maybe we’ll see a center reconnect back wise

If I lived in the northern Leewards on up the PR archipelago I’d be nervous.

Really - source? … not trying to challenge it’s just that the monthly publications from NOAA dating back seem to have a relative sink near by or inside much of the time.

Change is coming … but lol I’ve been seeing them crossing over this region all summer

It's an example of how technology is conditioning people toward the feckless tl;dr thing ...but, that post was not that long on a PC - certainly not compared to 10 ... or 15 yrs ago. My hunch is that folks are doing this engagement predominantly from their portable tech these days, ...where one wrapped sentence looks like a whole paragraph on that interface - this one included ... The rest is quick stimulus dosing - that does not share company with the virtuosity of deeper thought. Combining these two? People just don't read... or read very well. Back in the earlier days of Eastern, I wrote pages for pinned storm outlooks and got PMs from English teachers containing accolades - now? The instant gratification is all about pap on tap, pouring saccharine pop culture crap that doesn't require any thought... and is often taken as gospel - digress. Like I said, diminishing returns No one can stand to make the hot cocoa anymore - they want it already delivered. You know, it's not a huge leap to see how the writers of "The Matrix" came up with that pacification reality to harvest power from human energy. It's really a kind of quasi analog for plugging everyone into their phones and zombifying them into herds of thumb-swiping stimulus junkies for dimes.

LOL .... muah hahaha, my work here is almost complete -

This is essentially true for winter storm scenarios - particularly those that are snow. We have to expand the comparison over a longer period than even 70 years ( say..). Back 120, prior to modernization of land and the creation of the Interstate system... 20" choked civility - Just think, in 50 years, ... telegraph and power lines will be either underground or becoming that way, and/or being replaced by other power and communication solution/methods. Winter storms impacts will be rendered entirely nuanced inconvenience. No longer any sort of stop management issues. That is, if we are even still having winters capable of hosting jack shit at that point along the projected CC curve of the future. Ha... in some ways, we could be if not likely are, living the last decade(s) of the snow day era. In 200 years... if we haven't lost out to diminishing returns, or been dealt some other biblical set back, first, tech may have evolved that implements "quantum electro magnetic wave guides" that force weather patterns. The entire field becomes obsolete.

These two guidance have flip (reversed) across the western hemisphere entirely from where they were 24 hours ago. Yesterday, the Euro was a warm ridge and the GFS was the bully N stream. Utterly, flipped. 12z GFS now carries a bulging heat dome/ridge after this next Wed, and the Euro looks well above 50% similar to those previous GFS runs. Either solution could prevail. .. I can see why they are tussling over it. The entire N arc of the Pacific circulation mode is entering an A/B phase due to the absorption of a "Merbok" into a two stream phase over the eastern limb of the WPO domain, ...sending a shock wave through the flow that ends up as a powerful jet moving SE through Canada in a week. That's the gist of this Euro, and the previous GFS ( again, now flipped themes). The models are taking turns with more than less proficiency in that phase and subsequent consequence down stream. Which... if there is going to be a hurricane to monitor - that's not really part of that above, but it could 'chancy' be in the right(wrong) place at the right(wrong) time...etc..etc... That's all this is - timing as far as the hurricane part of this.

Step one ... upgrade to Depression status - Presently looks really healthy on conventional sat channels...

Ah I don’t know if that phenomenon applies to the tropics…? ha. That’s more of a hemisphere planetary wave management issue, which is where and what hosts extratropical cyclones… Those kind of big events. The tropics remind me … especially at this range. It’s like the spray that comes out of a particle collision at Hadron And the metaphor kind of works for me because I suspect the handling the tropical interactive fusion with the westerlies is a lot more fundamental - sort of prior to the ongoing orchestration of atmospheric mechanics that are already in play when the models first detect them.

Uhhh no, it's east of the CT River Valley. E. LI over Worcester to Nashua to ET transistion over Montreal. It's actually a send in structural engineers for the Prudential Tower in the aftermath sort of track -

And there comes grapply CAA showers into the Lakes 3 days later, with flips to snow in the U.P. It seems every year we canvas a GFS painting at this range like that. I swear I saw a 15 contoured hornet sting E of the Del Marva last year around this time...and the year before, and the year before that. ugh

Having said that ... F! why oh why as tropical phenomenon enthusiasts ... must we be shown a "deterministic" solution, that ... really defies any formulaic convention to find a flaw in its design (about 100%), at range that is about 0% likely to verify? That's well above the 95th ...perhaps 98th percentile - you could fiddle with that some and still make out alright as a "responsible mentality" LOL ... you sickos ... j/k

ahhaha ..for some reason I had to lean forward laughing when I read that - all we are is bust in the winnnnnnnnnd. I think it is because of the next lyric, "saaaame ollllld sooonnnnng"

To many moving parts at a range that has never been consistent with moving parts - I mean, can it happen? duh But put it this way ...if it did, just like that, it would be utterly by accident and not because of the physical processing of the GFS run at 246 hours out - just tryin' to intervene on the d-drip addiction

yeah ...hence the, "lol"

yikes! lol

And during that entire 5 months span ... the world mean experiences 2 or 3 of those months as the warmest ever recorded, and the other 2 or 3 in 2nd or 3rd place, while we are enabled in our little denial bubble. no doubt.

Those who hail from either perspective on next week ... score a low grade in unbiased reading regarding that AFD missive. LOL wow