Typhoon Tip

Ho man … I’d be lying if I said I didn’t like the 1995 vibe to that extended GEFs that’s been sneakily emerging as of late

Same here dude, 'cept I haven't turned it on. House is actually 57 hah. Just back from a run and enjoying the cool, and then it's a evening sweater and bed by 10 or 11 ... If I can just get by through tomorrow, Thursday's gon' be 70, HFD-LWM and the windows go open. Must make the 15th -

Chill pockets getting pinched off from Canada early… It’s been a recurring theme over the past ten and in particular five years – don’t get used to it. Because it’s just as apt to fade into a winter paradigm that bears no resemblance to this, once the gradient of the hemisphere really kicks in and we set up a baseline Rossby signal. Or maybe we’ll just hold this and it will just get stormier and colder … I don’t know. Point is it hasn’t been very reliable to get cool air early. Not a very good indicator. Yeah I really should have the heat on in here my hands are getting cold but I have this thing every year where I try to get to October 15… I’ve lived in this house 10 years and I think this might be the second time I’ve considered doing so before that date.

But mid 40s here under cloud canopy and raw wind is a month too early. Granted it’s only 9 am but ew I’d like a sold week of upper 60s or 70 one last time before having to commit to this shit. With sun too. Man … looking at the NAM grids in the mid Atlantic tho … .2 to .7 every 6 hrs, none stop, for two days in life sucking chill … ‘nough said Let’s hope we can strand one of these deals in a December whence temps are well behaved.

Yeah perfect maple sapping wea - oh wait

I'd be encourage with that temp and prec distribution if I were a winter enthusiast ! Firstly ... that distribution suggests they are asking for a positive PNAP base-line stated ( that means more +PNAs than -PNAs) Secondly... that's likely to get compressed E as the most likely 'correction vector', nearing 40N and above latitudes. That would place the mean baroclinic alley of ill-repute right down our block of naughty affairs. Thirdly ... I'm proud of NCEP/CPC for having the courage to put out any kind of a chart containing the word 'below,' when in deference to either winter, or an outlook effort. That may in fact be the first time they've down that in 54 years ...kidding, but it is a rarer tact by them. Fourthly, ... just some supposition but ... they are bringing that look into the NP as far E as the western Lakes... despite whatever bias it is that preferentially keeps them banging out positive temperature outlooks as baser canvas. Without hitting the cafeteria at NCEP and opening a dialogue over lunch ... that's sort of implicating them as being bullish.

I had forgotten that event.. But now that I'm thinking about it, that storm was an under-performer up here along Rt 2/N Massachusetts. A singular event whose distribution served a microcosm of the season on whole. ...uh, I think? The 23.5" total at Boston and the yearly total ...belies the aggravation for winter enthusiasts - which ( lol ) cannot really be appeased... The distribution was odd, both in terms of spatial layout ( you know ..who got what/when), with most area not doing as well as a select few that were even above normal in some cases. That's the impression I had At a regional scale, I wonder how the winter did - taking all climate sites and inclusion of any validated ancillary data to give weight ..etc... I'm wondering if the winter was above or below average in both snow and temperature.

The resent wasn't directed at you or any one in particular. It was to address the vitriol, in general - I didn't frankly 'study' who said what and/or why and then filter it through the psycho-babble checklist of probable triggering motivations, intents and purposes LOL... I would like to contribute to a seasonal weather discussion - now that it is October - but came in here this morning and there's no real directive... blah blah

By the way, it's time for the new climate paradigm's October snow event watch ( read that with uneasy/unsure sarcasm -) There have been hints of this in the Euro as well. This is a trough specter that's been looming for several days, in the total Japan to Greenland side of the Hemisphere, in ens means and operational consistency and trends, in the time range below. Though it is awful ...awful early, the behavior is of greater importance to discussion - I think it likely that the bully anomaly aspect will correct/normalize some, while maintaining some semblance of a cold wave October style. We have competing concepts there... But, this 'behavior' should be watched for later this month -

I'm thinking skies and conditions will improve and be better for tomorrow ... just watching how this whole ordeal is behaving. It's already decaying the cloud tendency across upstate NY and C/NNE, and looping you can see it's suppression toward the S/SE albeit slowly. We've likely seen the worst this was ever going to offer. The wind may also be strongest nearer the coast, but once inland, ...a more suppressed PP exerting S will likely mean the easterly conveyor ends up S too, so places along the western side of the ORH hills (say) could end up with 57, lighter winds, partly sunny and actually on the plus side in terms of sensible weather. Sun's already carving through over NW CT ...and I don't see this going the other way. The large dominating synoptic circulation is going to overwhelm this thing. I'm also a little suspect about that latter sort of new cyclogen S of LI as impacting through mid week.

Ha ha. It gets worse? - you mean worse than "too late" ? Tongue in cheek: but too late's contextual sentiment should encapsulate a certain kind of ... "finality," beyond which ...there is no furthering existentially-based distinction LOL I don't know though. I think it's all an unkind numbers game, really. I mean, by the time this all comes to a head, we rabbit-humans will have bloated to 8 billion -altho, I've been reading that among 2nd and 1st world industrial societies, birthing rates are plummeting along multi-decadal scales. Seems to me, since these worlds are either directly or indirectly service/enabling most of that huge populations ... that tends to enter the argument that there are mechanism going that are capping [enter the ambrosia of reasons ] Most people have heard numbers that big when we audience to modern media's covering governmental fiduciaries ... or the elite 1% ... etc, but really? The average person does not dimensionalize just how big 7.5 or 8 BILLION BILLION BILLION ... really is. I'm babbling ... the point is, if the non-sustainability finally does topple all, numbers that big guarantees some survive - purely based on probability. The only way an 'absolute' realization, is to vaporize the planet - perhaps literally. Have the moon suddenly finish the collision event that began some 3.75 billion years ago, ...and technically is still happening ( in about a billion years, the moon's orbit will stop expanding ... and then slowly contract ...gradually accelerating, and 500 million years or so after that, will finish what Theia started ...) ... The sun will also be 10% hotter, too ... To mention, the shear probability of sustaining another billion years without a CRB in our local astronomical neighborhood truly scorching the Earth...and so on... It's all pointless. It's all over, already... But for the sake of here-and-now, and what we 'can' control - the pragmatic context is, do we annihilate our present way of living, ...sort of being confuses with whether humanity still has life. We don't need the above ad infinitum to force the former result. It's just after the after period of the aftermath.. .whatever gets around to still capable of fucking and borning babies... will probably just be much smaller numbers. Then, perhaps the sinusoidal nature of evolution will rise again into a favorable realm ...one that exists sans the present day's paradoxic tandem of insatiable self-servitude and glut being in conflict with ways and means by which it carries on. A future "utopia" ...

yeeeah, I get the teasing and fun - it's all good. Let's be clear, the Euro is not a bad model.

I've been monitoring this ... It's kind of both camps were right, and both camps were wrong. Not sure that means the GFS, nor the Euro/NAM tandem(blend) really deserve the win. In one sense, the GFS is likely to be right about the lower QPF totaling from N NJ to/throughout SNE, but the Euro and NAM were right about the extension of b-c leafing and what is actually "trying" to fall from ceiling. The rads been lit up with raging ... virga - (altho some is getting down) I think I recall the Euro doing this in a blizzard back ... oh, some 7 years ago. It was suddenly attempting to wall in 18" of snow through a 15F BL ...moving it along in a sustained 40kts of NNE trajectory over N Nj and NYC ... doing so with just 48 hours left before go time. Left NWS scrambling, because the NAM ( with it's typical NW bias that everyone ignores but apparently me for f sake -) was also agreeing with it... Nothing - oops. Oh, maybe they got a 1.4" of cryo-grits piled up along the base of telephone pools and parked car tires, in a general gelid gray tinted air, but it was an epic epic bust, because they really didn't have much choice but to buy-in. And so was foisted blizzard warnings. Maybe a little hyperbolic but something like that... Radar did have 20 even 30 DBZ returns fanning over top, that far west, but it wasn't saturating the BL. Anyway, this is not a winter situation, but in general... the Euro and NAM have a history of over playing the W-NW arcs of cyclonic influence. The NAM is actually the far worse of the two, though - On the flip side, I saw a lot of GFS runs with nothing into Massachusetts' latitude, and it had to bump N with at least measurable inside of 36 hour lead. That's not very good either.... I think it is right, however, in the suppressed behavior with the big high getting ready to pancake through CNE... Mooshing the PP will set us up ( by the way) good and proper for a nasty Sunday of 52 F with 32 mph E fetch gusts tossing soccer kids around the fields...

why don't you clean this thread up so it is worth while to engage ? - along with some sort of statement that this isn't a tennis match for validating egos, much less any kind of venue for one to try and establish themselves/earn celebrity while we are at it. jeez

That’s quite impressive two day trend in both the EPS and GEFs … re the pacific relay into North America/circulation construct. And hopefully for cold weather enthusiast that happens next month and we get another snow in October … no doubt followed inevitably by a highly compressed fast sheared warmer than normal winter with maybe one snow storm to hang our hats on…(sardonic). In the meantime … if the CPC Tele connector does not come around to a stronger positive PNA analysis/computation by now then there’s something wrong with that system because there’s no way those mass fields in the ensemble means of either reflect a mere neutral PNA from D6 to 11

Try to process this and keep it in mind also heading into the winter that the Nam has a northwest bias in the west and north west Atlantic cyclone routes and always has, for beyond the short term

… Agreed. Ex, it’s one of the reasons why that 2003 December event was so prolific right down to the Bourne bridge almost. If one goes back and looks at the synoptics in the NCEP/library and check out the sfc pattern, that +PP could not have been more ideally placed. … Huge diabetic inclusion from the south running over normal to that low ageostrophic feed, with easterly components at 850 mbar… = smoked

We just got to get through the next three months and we’ll see 80 in February again …

It may be more hit and miss… I mean I know you’re talking about your region but down here we’ve pretty much not experienced all together very impressive winters… In fact rather uninspired and torpid, with lots of lighter events tending to be offset only by one single event that flagships the season. I’m sure that other people covet perspectives that may vary on that some …but just saying in general.

Yeah not a forecast but … there’s evidence already that we are doing the folded circulation thing You know …there’s a fastening paper out there right now about this. I think it came out of ….I’ll try to look it up. Team a giant craniums with pulsating temple vascularity performed a quantitatively analyses … utilizing mathematics untenable to our sphere of sentience … that demonstrated what happens with expanding HC whilst warming polar domain … basically what I’ve been crowing for years. There is increased folding in the circulations. And autumn‘s and springs are particularly vulnerable to dramatic variations – including those that can occur snowfall at unusually early and late times relative to either season. But it also doesn’t last during the winter itself when the hemisphere gradient increases - it slips into a new paradigm and so far we’ve been hosed more so than not in everyone of those I think since the big February 2015. There’s a lot of orbital perspectives/philosophy concepts in that but yeah … don’t be shocked if it happens in either October or November followed by some kind of regression to something else regardless of the multi faceted dizzyingly complex papers that some of us on these social media platforms rockstar seasonal outlooks, too. Lol

Oh OK then… I also thought you were talking about the shit coming up the coast that’s going to ruin the weekend

Yeah again I didn’t look. I just assumed. I was thinking like 63 or something out there lol. But even at 60 I mean that’s a long fetch - it’s not like it’s coming out of a curve trajectory from Western Nova Scotia barely overwater and then bending back west into Boston. I mean it’s a flat long flow off of the Atlantic and I bet you the models are probably just gonna be wrong with the dewpoint then as it’s mixing with that marine boundary layer and then being transported west. Meh my guess but you know what…? Who the fuck cares because we’re talking about the difference between putrescent1 or putrescent2: pick

I thought the water was warmer than 53…? I haven’t checked. that almost looks like it’s going to be milder in Boston and Providence Rhode Island then interior sections due to the fact that the ocean is still above 60° just based on climo I remember when I lived in Rockport we had a onshore flow with wind and waves in October once, and the water got warm enough due to piling we were able to go in up to our knees and bang around in the waves a bit… (this is back when the dinosaurs roamed ) I mean it might cool off overtime anyway because eventually things are going to go more north north east. But in the easterly phase of this putrescence-

It’s a slow moving apocalypse … then in an instant we realize it’s too late