Typhoon Tip

Mm Likely a coincidence, tho. Results don’t dictate cause - haha I mean not intending to dictate here lol No but two thunderstorms created by entirely different mechanisms produced the similar amt if rain ? Think of it that way.

Looking at IR Sat loop that’s almost a a Bahama blue pattern there … bout the latest I’ve ever seen that

He got picked up by a major forecasting/energy market firm and per his hiring he had to commit to an NDA. His thoughts and methods can't both be free, while defaulting to proprietary inclusion into the employing organization - so there's no sense in engaging in here. He made it out in other words... For the rest of you, keep trying and maybe one day you'll get adopted too -

It's way out there ... 288 hours and such, but without even looking at the rest of the GFS's panel of products, this can't be happening without an EPO dive. It spikes downward, and the flow follows suits. 516 dm hydrostates to Montana is redic for November 4 even for their standards.. It's just some to eye candy -

You mean like how J.Q. Cop has to get his quota of 5 tickets per month ha.

32 low 72 high 40! ... highest diurnal spread in years.

Those are among some of my favorite moments. When you're standing there... with the sun just 10 or so degrees up over the horizon, ...essentially ground-parallel fracturing corpuscular rays knife through the trees if you look toward its direction. Through a kind of translucence that isn't enough to call it fog; the air sets aglow. And raining through the scene are flit sounds of cold-clipped leaves. I think that phenomenon happens because the cold was intense enough to freeze minute water lingering in the leaf stem - it expands 12% by volume and that expanse sort of hurries the leaf's destiny. The wind is dead call, but this fall mass, evidence by the littering of fresh leaves still having color pop directly under tree canopy, ....can rival the breeze deposition later that afternoon. It's interesting how nature has these 'back up plans' like that. If a region is saddled with a stagnating pattern with low wind - not altogether uncommon during autumns, despite the onset of stormy season - eventually, the leaves are coming down to set the cycle of the next season into motion.

Wow.. .up 25 at FIT. Could be the biggest diurnal swing of the year. There's MOS products with 68 there this afternoon. Would be a 38 recovery should that take place. ASH is 27 up from 30... 57. BED, up 24... Meanwhile, ORH was 41 this morning... BOS was 46... I'm surprised we decoupled so proficiently last night. I thought we had gotten on the top side of this narrow surface PP enough that a W/SW flow would keep us from doing so 'as much'.

Hell, how fat are the woolly bears and squirrels while we're at it. Maybe it all "means" something... lol. I'm hoping we get 2015, ..but not just 3.5 weeks in February. All three months! And, not so much for getting to experience the coveted ... 550" winter ( haha, but who am kidding). Rather, then to have the publications of NOAA/NASA have all three of those months be globally ranked like 3rd warmest winter ever, would be utterly priceless. It would all serve my hypothesis rather apropos, that we here between roughly Chicago and the Maritime of Canada, have a kind of enabled region here in the world, where we don't seem to suffer CC 'quite as phenomenally' as ... pretty much everywhere else. Whether by virtue of the 'warmer relative to normal' occurring at night - look out! Or consummately fielding scenarios that nick hot afternoons off their potential at least imaginable cause... Or getting stuck in a E wind scenario that isn't really BD related, but more a synoptic circumstance associated to CC changing the way the hemispheric mass fields distribute... We seem to live in a red-headed step child cold scapegoated region ... Of all the vicissitudes of geologic evolutionary journey that preambled where we are in this present epoch of history, it was all preordaining that New England be dumpster. To put the dart in the bullseye of this diatribe, maybe CC/global "warming" means 550" of snow here, too. Nature doesn't give a shit how we experience anything. I'm being snarky/sarcastic there, but... it has impressed me upon more than a just a few occasions, how we leave a lot of heat on the table comparing to other areas of the world. Maybe our dry summer was a way to get CC'ed monster in here ? Yeeeeup... sure. I mean CC isn't just a temperature issue. It f's everything up. Meanwhile, we hide in cozy sentiments like, "CC can't explain specific event" ... yeeeeeah, but what that 'bargaining' tactic obviously does is evades the notion that if the climate numbers changed, that means the weather got fucked up - so if the climate continues to change, that just probably might mean the weather events that average to a climate will continue to ... wait for it. Screw up! And in order to do that ... THE SPECIFIC EVENT IS EXPLAINED by climate change - that's just logic! Can we stop applying the 'evasive denial tactic' please and start admitting that the freaks are happening because of CC. Tongue in cheek of course..

Hard to get a bead on what the real full manifold of physical aspects lends to better or lower performing years. I mean I'm not refuting anything your intimating there... but, I just have heard/read more than once over the years that well hydrated, none thermally stressed foliage during gestation times, leads to better color autumns. We experienced neither leading circumstance - Or did we...? I mean the spring was kind cool by human standards, but may have been ideal over the hill sides - not sure. But the summer went pretty hot and lest I risk bringing up the autistic preoccupation that goes on in this social media 'safe zone' (jesus-), yeah ...it was really really dry. (we fuckin get it) We did get a 4-6" of rain rather suddenly in those last 10 days of August. Recall, we had a weird strung out coastal in there that rained pan-regionally to some 3.5". Then we had convection kick in, then a series of those front wall type slow moving cold frontal training rains..etc.. Despite the drought survey, the top 6 feet of earth and root, may have been given water just in time ? heh... not likely - foliage is already set up by then. This just seemed to defy conventional wisdom this year, and as such... shit leading parameters led to one of the more museum quality years I can remember. Have to go back to the mid 1990s -

that mention of " -hail-" there ...hm. What does that mean? right - It's not a tropical system in the modern sense/definition/science, if it's producing 'hail'. May have been Sandy type deal? Where a purer tropical system got sucked into an early season coastal synoptic evolution - in other words going hybrid...very quickly in the imagination. Plausible, if not possible, the account was merely a powerful nor-easter, with one of these early season high pressures elephant asses lobing its way through Ontario over-top. 980 mb bomb with a 1045 mb over-top would get the point across, and the 'hail'? - could just as well have been sleety rain. They don't talk about temperatures - that would help clarify matters. But they do have a "state of the art advanced system" of weather type classification system known to exist in "1770" ... I mean, I'm constantly overhearing J.Q. Public piling in out of a cold November rain, going, 'ugh - there hail out there' circa 2020. Plus, the excerpt mentions N-NE wind... 'usually' associated with tropical systems at CT-ME latitude, they are moving like a bat out hell ( particularly back then barely post the Mid Evil age cold centuries ... when the westerlies are likely activated by October 20s ). Speculating from a climate perspective there, but if was cane it was like moving fast, which the west side wind velocities attenuate due to vector addition/subtraction. I dunno... "hail" ... "less than clear/reliable definition cataloguing" ... "N/NE wind trajectories" and in a sense, "980" mb is a very nice climate cozy depth for a late Octo coastal bomb.. Probably was 970 leaving East Port Maine, and 964 up there west of NF..

the 06z GFS operational takes a modest reflection of this Invest above, and moves it along that similar trajectory to an eventual pass right over Cape Cod. It will be passing over the G-string heat content during that journey - if it stays... - but I'm not sure of the other metrics. Whatever they're sayin'

Oh I am not laughing at you I’m laughing with you. Heh

Up 22 since 7:30. not bad

L O L he’s ready for warmer weather on October 21 after three nights of fake cold, what’s he gonna do when it’s not fake for three months if lead air

It’s amazing how sloped the sun is already. So vividly I can recall the orb tipping warmly into the morning sky … seems so recent. Now at that same time the sun just crawls along the SE horizon.

Obviously there is no such thing as ‘fake’ warmth or cold - a given temperature is what it is. The turn of phrase - if it must be pointed out … - is just a header really, that labels the reason for a given temp as being manufactured circumstantially and transiently disconnected from the surrounding larger synoptic signal. There should be no cause for argument in acceptance of that reality. If we are sensy about choice of label for it … I guess pick something else. But the chill this morning is still gossamer either way.

Yeah ORH is 41 so it’s a lower elevation/decoupling fake cold. Should be 62 at 3 pm Maybe 70 tomorrow

I’m not sure what it is… didn’t mention climate change in that. Granted it’s the most available implication but I don’t know You know … that Super Nino that took place … I wanna say 7 clicks back, turned out to be not much more than a Super Neato. It did not impose nearly as many impacts along traditional climate routes as past significant warm events have. so I don’t know that’s all maybe it’s an isolated thing

Very much agreed. The veneer of the ocean surface/air is only a (warning: big words incoming…) quasi-couple EOS (equation of stasis) That means that what the atmosphere is doing at the sea surface (in regards to wind distribution) tends to reflect in the SST distribution - but that can be transient at intra seasonal scales and does necessarily reflect PDO/AMO — let’s get complicated though… If some grad student with a brilliant insight comes along and proves that the subsurface means less to the actual pattern … like undeniably and quite conclusively… then we can reevaluate The other thing - more of a separate matter The warm pool up there in the north and north east pacific wobbling around since roughly 7 to 10 or so years ago (Will’s gonna love this) Is being attributed to climate change. Not personally commenting to its veracity one way or the other… But the papers out there I actually gave a link either I don’t know one of these threads. But the point is if that’s true then the PDO just suddenly means even less to the pattern - it actually even smacks is passing through a climate threshold the ramifications of which would remain to be seen digress

We laugh but … heh that decoupling thing has been an increasing observation occurrence spanning a decade. I realize you’re not making a statement either way … but it’s not just endemic to the last NIÑA for the general read/straw man.

Lol … not to be a douche but I don’t believe many really think about it that deeply. Heh. Someone once intelligently posited or even merely sounded cogent when stating cold water sucks there … —> forever triggered a canvas of fear. I guess it depends on the audience. I mean there are enough years sampled to force the notion of non-partiality (not a doom signal at all…) that frankly I and I suspect a growing number of prognosticators merely add it to the stew…

Man too bad that inverted mess punches up the coast. I guess if it bides time until Monday it’s less annoying but the Euro/GFS screw Sunday out of what would otherwise be a gem. Saturday looks good. Maybe the GGEM’s better recent trend with that will pull the win coup attempt. Nah..

Haha. Knew people would react to that.

Zactly. Yup