Typhoon Tip

For the general audience… We really can’t consider this a D4 event because of its slow movement and likely profile differential that occurs over the course of the event - it’s more likely the ballast of it As far as what it means to the user ship in here…is late on D4 into 5. I’m just discussing the timetables there entirely.

haven't seen any posts since about pg 157 ... I would pay attention to the d(model) between 00z and 06z wrt the GFS. I don't believe that is a non-significant and/or mere nuanced storm placement and thermal profile modulation ...i.e., 'noise' between solutions? no - 06z is a marginal atmosphere at a 4.5 to 6D lead, in a -NAO... with and antecedent polar high in no hurry to leave the 60w/50n ~ feed source... and the 850 mb isotherm, as was depicted...gets to about HFD- ASH before collapse. All of which never really had a very good climate inferential purpose for going so far W over recent runs to begin with? - If one doesn't get what a 'correction vector' is, and in this case ...which way it points, I dunno what to tell you man. If that whole thing is machine emerged hallucination to begin with it ...okay, but, excluding that possibility ( sarcasm intended...), I don't think that 00z to 06z changes were noise. They fit the above baser metrical layout and the theoretical, and experiential/historical, forcing arguments. Not to be early sold... the 00z to 06z GEF mean also bodily shifted east some 100 naut miles. The 00z Euro also looked colder and more compressed SE with the thermal profile...despite attempting a similar cyclone track as previous ... I find that as suspect telling. There was a modest east jog in the EPS mean from 00z comparing the 12z. These matter for this overall circumstance, more so (imho) than the average case, due to these colder arguments leaning on this thing the way they do.

actually ...I think you are backward on this analysis. The point to point comparison looks like the 00z was more E

It's a whole different world up there ... There was a store downtown up there, back in the 1980s that used to specialize in family crests ...don't know if they still exist anymore. But we went up there to purvey... When we left the day was a grayish hang, with moist 39 F air over moosh snow. ( Acton, MA)... By the time got up there it was in the mid 20s, with 24" of powder. I stood there about 5 or 10 minutes after sunset, with T's slipping toward 20, as the arctic night claimed the last bit of blue nw horizon light. The Presidential Range ( I think it was ...) created a dark wall beneath the sky along the left side, and there were some other elevations on the right. ...This made the allusion to a hallway. And every 3 or so minutes, out of nowhere ...the wind would rise from near calm to fill the air with blowing snow...fulled through the valley floor. It was just pure winter - 0 adulterated pureness. It's a moment in time that is indelible in memory... And I thought about that as returned later that evening, and it was the same old 37 F stale air over a rotting snow pack.

I knew it would do that ... I haven't seen it yet, but I suspect you are right just because of 'why' I thought it would do so. Ha. seriously though. The stuff I was talking about more of a L/W whole-scale move (toward) the guidance, as opposed to a 'tumbler' trough would tend to offset the W position lows that materialize nearing the coast. The sad part is...the tumbler would have been the best if it could stay south. Will and I, and others ...were musing at the party last night that the runs yesterday were sort of leaning that way - it was impressive... But, alas it didn't last. Anyway, better of the loss is to have it this way - so lucky in that regard. You know...I still have a problem with the whole evolution of this period in question. The -NAO appears to move out at the convenience of the trough moving into Ontario,... but it can also happen that way. There plenty of precedence and real personal experience, however, with blocks being dismantled too quickly, or handled improperly by mid range modeling. Something else that suddenly occurred to me ... It's almost like I'm getting sick of this f'n thing and can't wait for it to just be in the rear view mirror. lol

...like a long bike ride from it, anyway. Yeah - weird

It may not be the worse thing to happen for winter enthusiasts ... ( yes, everybody), should this thing evolvw more into a L/W as opposed to quasi closed 'tumbler' - The reason is, it opens the door for a lot of possibilities. The previous construct/evolution portended one bigger-ish event, then done. Pattern shuts down with some sort of 10 day "recharge" requirement. But the L/W version offers renewing possibilities for impulses to be delivered into an ambient cold/baroclinically charged domain. It also at a large hemispheric scale, move toward more of a +PNAP ( if rooted in +PNA), evolution. The -EPO joins the discussion here, folks. I wonder if it is under the awareness radar for the forum, but that's a huge cold signal showing up over James Bay to Manitoba... It's been there for a while in the runs. This 12z GFS is close to seeing up a mechanism to deliver this either in segments or en masse - "close" ...it's hinted there. But the D7-11 elongates matters at mid levels. It's a fascinating attempt to evolve this in he guidance, but there are possibilities that it ends up favorable, even if Friday/Saturday ends up a progressive moderate event. The VT 20+" is likely model magnification, "UNLESS" some changes do recommit to more being ejected with that lead S/W there.

But ...why does your "art" have to be like one of those frescos of antiquity on the Roman chapel walls, the tragedy where Ray gets singled out for persecution by an unjust god though - I find that interesting that you, unwittingly so... become an instrument of that lord's symbolism. Fascinating

You know honestly .. oy have to glaze some eyes to get this across. But I can see what's happening here with the GFS recent trending... Probably a not in this direction from the other guidance, too. The the GFS has converted the giant vortex look to more of a connected planetary L/W structure. If you center are 108 hours on this 12z run and go back a couple days worth... amid all that noise, you go from that large 'tumbler' idea, to now more of a L/W. And in fact, that L/W on this variation is attempting to torpedo a S/W across the mid Atlantic... This low at 12z and the "somewhat better appeal of recency" is really just a manifestation of the above evolution. Below is 4 days ago, the GFS to now as of 12z, demonstrating that morphology. It matters...because the 12z this morning version would change the nature and evolution of cyclogen. By committing more to the L/W variety, the storm is less likely to be drawn into a W position, because the wave structure remains more open...

Ah ha! .... the super detective, "NAVGEM" has foiled yet another crime of model perjury attempted by the ...everyone else, by exposing what's really going to happen with that trough nearing the end of this week...

George ... I can see you posting in the slant indicator. I can "feel" you typing the word blizzard. STOP IT nothing I said requires the use of the word blizzard, nor your "clever" ruse to cloak it in a contextual synonym like, "burial" instead. lol

Hey man... good catchin' up with y'all last night ... Agreed with the sentiment, particularly as it relates the bold above. My problem ...well, 'concern,' with the guidance is that it is pressed against the west side of the physics ( oh god, what does he mean now lol) - I just mean it can't really go any farther W. A longer detail... read at on headache risk: The whole deep layer structure is trying to move into a region that less really supported at a larger planetary scope. If we look out toward that mid week period, crucially there is a big time -NAO pulse. The situation in the models becomes exceedingly complex, because they have to first be right about that occurrence, then...subsequently, right about how it's forcing influences the surrounding hemisphere. That 2ndary influence is based upon an aspect that has not even yet materialized (that being the first). Boo ya for the models if they get both right - seriously.. A little less likely. It's not impossible. But ... that's what I mean by 'pressed.' I don't like depending on systems in the mid/ext range models that are pressed for any reason - and this one is pressed based upon shit that hasn't even occurred in real time. It's like when you see a bomb on the D7 that is perfect? You know it won't 'last' in the runs because it can't make it through the gauntlet of future permutation - only very rarely do bombs at that range 'survive' the fractal mayhem. This thing may benefit from the same sort of aspect. It's present modeled behavior can't really go much more west, or else the other mass fields et al have to significantly change. Barring the unlikeliness of that super synoptic occurrence ... that means it's gotta fend off any reason to come back SE - which is frankly more climatologically appealing with -NAO burst immediately preceding it, anyway. You're homage to the '50/50' aspect is on point and related there - imho. Murphy's Law aside ( always a risk hahaha) it would be less likely that a D5..6 outlook survives 5..6 days of 'as west as it can'. Having said all that... this thing has a cornucopia of reason to not throw hands, anyway. It's more of 'SWFE' ...which those are notoriously too quick to erode out cold. A reality that emerges often during now-cast, when meso lows along the 925-850 mb warm materialize ...these types of intra event phenomenon are not going to be seen at this range. It's also still real as a storm, and given to the -NAO blocking that is more likely to occur than not, there's climo and common sense (really) to the notion of a colder lower troposphere adjusting the antecedent air mass as we near. Just like this weekend. It was supposed to 42 F as a regional mean today, when this 'little critter' was 7 day ago in the GFS...etc. It is now 24-ish around the region at this 10 am hour, with almost nill means to really get the T even to freezing. Lots of reasons for monitoring. I am not just trying to be contrarian to the populous mood in here ... ha! seriously, if there anything that is less then objective about this analysis, or it's ability to give people headaches ... I will stand both corrected and disappointed...

GFS is holding the trough back west and spitting out a more minoring wave … yet another peregrination in this saga. ICON looked impressive aloft but it’s sfc handling is dubiously too warm. It intrudes warm air under mid level heights crashing through 522DM and has it raining …. It’s unlikely to combine those particular metrics without severe thunderstorms and tornadoes -ICON of lunacy is what that is.

ahh that's a p.o.s. useless storm... actually know what? For those making the comparison to 1992 - yeeeah... Will and I were mentioning that 'likeness' two or three days ago, just based upon behavior at mid levels. I wrote about that in the scrolled thread that for some reason no one cares about - it's about this storm folks... Anyway, what I was going say is, that storm was all rain in the guidance, for the 5 or so days leading the event. I've told the novella version of that experience before ...won't re-turn the phrases again for now... However, two days before that got under way, it was supposed to be rain. ...by the way, this is the 30-year anniversary ...Dec 10-12th... - I was sitting in History of American Lit ...wanting to jam an ice-pick in my ear canal ..., when the girl sitting next to me was waxing about the models to me, "...I don't know," she said, "this may not be all rain," with an air of ominous to her tone that only a fellow weather dweeb would detect. I encouraged more out of her and she just was saying that the consensus in the weather lab was that it could flip to snow - "could flip to snow". Holy shit was that prescient! They had to 'gut' instinct that call. Honestly, I can't recall precisely what the forecast was for west of 495 (say...). I just remember during the 11th ... people around campus were talking about Worcester presently being igloo-ed under.... I know that was not predicted, either way. Not that. This is the blue bomb time of year... Now, then again in March, with blurry end points. But it's when you get these warm BL that get obliterated by WB and turbulent mixing , height falls ...etc, and then the leading marginal thermal profiles are suddenly -1C beneath the growth region, and then it's caking cotton balls.

Well.... which is it? 12 or 24 - cuz 12 sucks donkey ballz. 24's awesome hahaha j/k

The GGEM is doing what it is doing for a different set of reasons than the GFS. Coincident results on this one guidance - just sayn'

Yeah...this is a great run folks. Perhaps not for the scalar value, but the scalar value in this case bears less relevancy to where this is "likely" heading. The delta(model) is hugely more the focus -

Ha... if one is 'reasonable' ? they love it - anything tastes better than that 3 -run excursion just eaten from the GFS. The whole lot of the last ...5 cycles, really demo the model is having excessive difficulty. The continuity has been non-existence as a hint there. Having or not having a storm is not part of that continuity - the details in the synoptics have varied, within a pork job manifold - therein is the smell of BS. - the consumer really shouldn't be purchasing from this particular guidance source until - at minimum - it demonstrates a modicum of continuity.

Yeah...I was just gonna say ... I'm not likely as far along the release as you given to my stingy cheapness with hating to pay for petty services, but as of 114 hours, there are certain morphology ( changes in size and shape..) that suggest this would destined better than the recent excursion -

jesus my mind... I'm already attempting discrete meteorological analysis and correction techniques, internally. Like, ... as we near the end of the week, the thermal gradient between just 100 naut miles of Cape May to CC, and the I-95 region of the coast, should really be exceptionally steep. And by 'thermal' ..I'm not just talking about temperature. The DP plays a role that is more important in thermodynamic physics when dealing with the gases ...to wit: the atmosphere is a big huge fart ball. Anyway, if a Euro/06z GEFs/06z EPS type blend aloft encroaches upon that area, any low that forms will pack tighter west. If the approach of the jets field associated with that large "tumbler" low ejecting torpedo maxes out ahead of it, crucially coherent would trigger the sfc to 700 mb cyclone manifestation to be W as the "correction vector"

Yeah... now that I'm having the chance to tip back a warm coffee and really see these ens mean 'giga' motions and comparing their deltas cross guidance ...blah blah... I'm still encouraged that there's thread-able/credible threat for the end of the week. The 00z EPS and 06z GEFs ( moving bodily en masse back toward the BM ...), as a 'super blend' would be a rank-able impact scenario, and barring comet impact ...probably is real. The operational souped-up version sometimes have a little too much jazz going on under the hood and can blow a gasket once in a while. We've seen it from the Euro, too. I recall the phantom blizzard from NY to southern NJ based on a Euro run with just 48 hours lead sending NCEP into a panic ... 1-3" of wind driven grits.

Still a couple pages back ... but if it's any worth, the overnight GEF mean was hugely improved ( for winter enthusiasts ) wrt to this system over the prior mean/spreads.... The prior wasn't as freakishly miserable as the operational 's rather abrupt deviation toward oblivion during those 3 runs... but it was mid way. Don't want to over emphasize here ...but, the 18z GEFs late yesterday afternoon was beginning to side with the operational run, with only a vague impression remaining... escaping seaward. Here is the 18z vs the ensuing 00z Almost smacks as though some bad data got absorbed into the DNA of the handling during the last 3 or 4 cycles, and we've been getting green-eyed babies ...stressing the father's faith and trust in the mother. But the 06z mean leaped quite a bit back toward a major risk avn, with some members in there beneath climo depth, too. Yeah...stating the obvious, also... this is all beyond 120 hours, this last run -away child consternation... Maybe expectations for stability in the guidance isn't proportional to modeling skill.

I missed the red eye flight overnight (still back around page 145 or whatever too many this is) but... the morning note was that the 06z GFS made a significant move back in the other direction ... However so telling that is, remains to be seen. In my snark late last evening resides elements of truth ... such that the previous ... I think 3 cycles of that model, the first in the series of which it went from a complete juggernaut on the previous ... to modeling that state of affairs on Pluto, neither of those 3 runs looked very much like the other. In other words, it was a continuity break to leap from the previous into the abandon state, but then it could not establish a consistent vision within the 3, either. So good luck parsing that out before 9 am on a Saturday morning... But upon seeing the 06z solution make at least a paltry attempt to rejoin the pack ... does two things: it pulls away from credibility over the recent GFS runs even farther; makes me yet again existentially question my purpose of being when I'm spending this much time writing about it

The only problem with Canadian is that at 156 hours out it’s not quite in its wheelhouse yet. It’ll be into its wheelhouse in another 156 hours. That’s when confidence leaps over 50%

I feel like we should be getting a statement from NCEP operations stating that they’re taking the GFS off-line for emergency maintenance If you look at the last three runs across North America the only thing consistent is a state utter entropy. And it’s plate of spaghetti with a different construction to the synoptically layout everywhere on each run. Weird.