Typhoon Tip

looks like the 18z NAM's arriving a degree colder and also south later Thur

I mean more than that... The 300 mb features a classic jet entrance leaving New England, N and E of the area, while the 500 mb exit region with 100+kts torpedos up underneath paralleling the coast. That's going to have some sort of intense banding and everything else filling in there with intance b-c leafing going on. The models won't QPF that probably until it's in short term.

- be leery of that ending up too soon just sayn' ... i guess all else being utterly unfair this season, we gotta start somewhere. lol

Oddly ..that looks under done given the synoptics.

26/27 is really kind of a KU event... That looks like thunder snow with 4-6" in DC to PHL, with 6-8" ..spot 10" in N NJ ...then up to 12+" HFD-PSM.

He's currently slumped back chalking eyes waiting on the intervention paramedics to hit 'im with NARCAN, that's why - it's called ODing

Yeah, just saw... not a shocker -

well ... for all the pattern change doubters and disrespect ( not saying I blame you, relax haha), you can't get a GGEM/Euro/UKMET blend to actually happen, without a pattern change. GFS has a pattern change but it just seems to lock a storm track that's both farther NW, but toting along damping waves. So anyway... we'll see but the pattern is still scheduled to change

That one would be a hyper bomb if the Euro is right ... I haven't seen the surface but I can be certain given that run succeeding in the mid and U/A/ synoptic evolution, it's running some sort of 970 mb low right by us.

Yeah I noticed you did ... I haven't exactly hated the notion - I've come by it from time to time.. BUT, I don't like the fact that we are lacking some +PP ( pressure pattern) for establishing the right thermodynamics. We need to have a DP inject into icing at 31.8 or it will flop to 32.4.... That's just physics - can't be avoided. BUT, establishing even minimal +PP N in VT/NH might get that inject ice enthusiasts would need, ageostrophic low level flow. This event does not have banked cold - or I should say lacked it on previous model trends. Anyway, I wasn't going mention it because it's too marginal and there's not a lot of evidence ( until this run) that we can drain ageostrophically.

hmm Euro looks like a band of significant ice along or just south of Rt 2...

Yeah, saw that... I almost wonder if that odd sfc placement ( wrt mid level forcing) may be a nod to more eventual coastal commitment - I've seen models do something like that, where they establish a 'correction vector' Interesting. Yeah, that's a zonk solution for like ALB though. They're probably getting a 6" hour with lightning strikes with that - wow. Also, the Euro trended colder here in the foreground from what I'm looking at... ? huh

Euro seems to be more phased like the GGEM with system #2, but too soon - that might end up in Buffalo. ...what the hell did they do, anyway -

Yeah... 10 days, 3 events... 30" piece of cake. Or piece of shit... depending - There isn't much difference timing-wise between the GGEM and GFS Otherwise, their respective 12z runs are almost identical. 10 days... 3 events... GFS has been succeeding all winter gashing hope in the heart for winter enthusiasts ... no need to elaborate there. GGEM has just enough more amplitude, and opts to align the storm track about 200 mile S or so. est.. Also, that second event has more N-stream phasing. The GFS bi-passes on that one and (what's new -) hurries the N/stream off the New England coast at ludicrous speed... Maybe that's right maybe that's wrong ? My guess is wrong, but whatever the result ...winter enthusiasts still get gashed again. Hard to knock such persistency.

In the meantime... 42 F in full sun after 48 hours of 30s in grunge is rather pleasant. Heh, with +2C at 850 ... full sun? In a month, we'd be 60F. I've seen it 62 F under 0C at 850 mb over a snow pack because of light wind warm sun angle super-adiabats. Soon as the sun kisses the tree line temp drops like a disgraced prom queen, sure ... But, days like this - this winter has been on life support all along, frankly, so you wonder if a rather over-performing nape season is in store. The numerical version of the teleconnectors are quite mild looking beyond next week... Yet, the depictions of all three ens cluster/means looks impressively wintry... These indicator methods are in conflict. Hmm... I'll tell you ( frankly...) the way this winter has gone preps one's perception to lean away from one of those portraits. Guess which one... heh. It's easy to imagine out there... this pattern change proven real but not that long, and not as amplified... starts folding toward an early spring. I'll be brutally honest, I would personally be quite happy with that. I'm not trying to rub this winter's shit show in or be "trollic" ...Just being objective about how the current and projected state of affairs are perceived, and based upon verification trends .. applied to guidance - and some measure of being bludgeoned over the head with it that CC modulation really gets harder to deny ... - from all these sources? Part of the 'quite happy' is perhaps more like acceptance setting one free.

It's not a bad interpretation, no. It's a 'smells like snow' rain along rt 2, with probably some stars on the windshield. Taking a closer look at the NAM ( for example...because it is one of the warmer 850 mb solutions as jbenedet points out..), the +2C I said was actually too warm. It's really closer to +1 with smaller meso holes punched through to 0C down as far as the Quabbin so... being at night, on January 19th, one could visualize that flopping over to wet cotton balls along this latitude. No bueno along the Pike... But yeah...as far as "accumulating" - heh

There may be some specific latitude consideration going on ... it's a finite scenario in that regards. Here along Rt 2... I would like to see more +PP correct into the front side of this. I don't see where the BL cold is coming from that is sufficient to offset a 850 mb thrust to +2C, in a season not providing a lot of faith that BLs can cool off and hold. But...looking at some higher resolution runs of the NAM, just over the border of VT/NH ...like almost collocated, it 0C there... But, they may also have a pesky warm layer in the bottom, too - not sure.. I think the best bet is modest height falls Friday morning with the collapsing column stuff. Man, what a tedious forecast this is -

Suppose this is all the reason for "needing to hear it elsewhere" The real problem with why-for the repetitive nature is because the users ( in general...no you or any particular member, per se - ) need faster entertainment out a focus that takes time to occur. In this case ... pattern change applied to the 20th through the end of the month, has been so basically 3 straight weeks ( more like 2, okay -). That is/was a constant. The ambition to see it happen, is not. In essence, some of the blame for that is on the user themselves ... perhaps in losing sight of having to wait a couple of weeks for an outlook to manifest in reality. They're some interpretation of can kicking here, that is out of line. The pattern changing/timing therein ...has not changed for this particular evolution, since it was ferreted out some 10 days ago or whenever that was... People need other hobbies, man. Tune in from time to time, then when/if the day arrives for the bigger entertainment/d-drip stuff, then engage more fully. But this reliance on this media for "substance" and fulfillment is ... only half comedic, frankly.

Yeah I don’t see Thursday as having a very high probability for positive return on snow south of New Hampshire Massachusetts border. Seems to me the only way we change this is to insert a little more front side +PP in Central Northern New England otherwise we probably have to wait for modest height falls on the backside of that mess. Might get into a burst of light snow Friday afternoon. ..This all seems pretty clear to me so I’m not gonna start a thread for this unless people want it. I’m not sure it’s really worth it for southern New England. However central northern New England it may be worth it for them - they are included in this forum lest we forget - right? ha ha ha

It appears the 23rd is more than less an inflection point. Fwiw, I keep noticing the 850 mb corrected significantly south passing that temporal entry, and then is in no hurry to go back... Some of the guidance had been trying to sell that lakes cutter/frontal passage as of a more coastal commitment but it is/was dubious against seasonal trends. That's been a kind of under-the-radar "model winter" persistence: coastal eye candy becomes a St Lawrence cruiser... We can argue a coastal doesn't fit the wave lengths on the front side of said change, anyway... I'm wondering what happens why out there. Because the 850 mb correction is coherent around the cross-guidance appeal just as well as the GFS. Some 25th..but yeah. However, they all have a ridge in the west, west biased ... in some cases, so far that it starts tugging the PNA down again. It's like a pattern that is sharing positive and negative index space without actually being neutral SD

What about us in here... haha.

hm ..does look improved.

HA, ...NHC should be a little more honest about how they really feel

The Euro's agreeing now with the GGEM/GFS re the 'quasi' norlun IVT lagging with persistent light snow on Friday. I suggest a thread... this specter has been coherent for enough runs. I told Will I'd do one by last night but I have other discussion obligation that took me off it. I'll put one up for moderate risk for (minor+moderate)/2 return

Well ...that explains the sleet contamination better than - but we both agree it's not likely right. Also, the BL ...the model does tend to saturate/wet-bulb higher than most other guidance in the mid range. I see this a lot with the GGEM ( and the only reason I bother to discuss is because the GGEM's been through some upgrades over the last 2 years and it has been showing somewhat improved performance...) where it places the rain/snow transition around -2 or -3 C at 850mb ... within a pounding CCB head. Nnnno