Typhoon Tip

I think y'all must be some kind of extraordinary extents of boredom to consummately drub up and recreate the same meme out of this Epstein thing. 

3 hours ago, jbenedet said:

It’s a perfect afternoon. CoC

Full leaf out this weekend.

Temps responded here and we went above MOS pretty quickly once the sun came out at about 1:30 in the afternoon … I think it’s a fair enough indication, considering the air mass isn't appreciably changed, how well it will respond tomorrow under more sun with a gentle northwest down slope flow. I think we’re gonna be looking at more 70s than machine guidance.

37 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Damage!

 

It's like, "...Oh lord, please just give me a sign. Something ... anything to let me know if I've made the right decision in setting out upon my fruit stand path.."

2 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Sun!  Partly cloudy, at least.  Should make a run at 60. 
Ticks are awake and active - took a walk down the unmaintained road to look for possible washouts (none found) and never left the gravel though I had to push some leaning alders out of my way to avoid a deep puddle.  Had to yank one deer tick from just above the corner of my mouth and another from between pinkie and ring finger.  Also picked one off the dog; she's medicated so the little horrors wind up atop her fur for easy removal. 
Bleccch!

Loop this: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

You can see a coherent deformation between cloud and much less cloud, pressing SW.

As I was mentioning earlier ... this/that is a pretty classic -NAO end game thing to see... clearing from the N-E as that index mode completes its success at [apparently] defying the law of celestial mechanics by moving in the wrong direction  

kidding.. .but, we see some dramatic changes in that mode beginning now and taking into the ballast of the month ahead, so that type of impression of wrong-way movement is on the doorstop of vanquishing

21 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

it was beautiful this morning, but the clouds have rolled back in with a beeze. Temp shot up to 55°, but feels chilly without the sun....should be a great weekend

Yeah...  we hope -

the essence of the synoptic layout has persisted and likely to verify inside of 4-days lead, but there's still a wild card wrt to the cloud situation.

conventional wisdom based upon long years of experience in our climate tells us that a deep layer light NW flow bumping over the terrain N-W of the region, whilst weakly transporting warming air ( not CAA), ...should dry out a marginal scenario and favor more sun. But the recent Euro runs are not interested in that conventional wisdom, and keeps introducing these 70+RH streaks passing over the region on 18z both afternoons... That would mute some of the recovery ...

But that may also be greedy.  I mean, if we get partly sunny and 66 that'll be fine comparatively.

Otherwise, more sun winning beating out MOS by 3 or so F would be an easy assumption and it would mean a 10 F variance potential.

actually said sky breakage axis has penetrated faster than first glance... It's now over eastern NH and about to open PSM up to some sun.

I don't know about you guys, but this all seems a little more tolerable if it is not actually raining on May 5 at 45 F, and is sunny. It can be cool if it needs at this time of year, but correcting the sky from this to hot sun is like a whole nother scene in "Everything Everywhere"

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Decent day on tap. 60 in view. 

It may take 3 hours or so for that vague clearing line that is presently running NW-SE from roughly Fryeburgh Maine to PWM to work SW across us down here.   Obviously ...sooner NE and longer SW.

This present (and hopefully last) axis as schmutz appears to be subtly convergent and as such we're getting some rotted cool strata light rain and/or or slate skies. Yuck.

This is not a-typical in the waning phases of a -NAO plagued back log constipation pattern, though.  The clearing that sort of 'symbolizes' the final flush out actually happens from the NE... and then rotates S and SE during the evening. But the clearing itself probably times mid day down here.  And it won't be clean either .. .There'll still be strata shit streaky streets and sun splashing cool air CU to remind you that this really is a Labradorian climate here, and we only accidentally get summer

Kidding on the ending point (a little :/ ) but you get the frustration...  

Not that anyone asked, but ... in my fantasy wealth echelon, I'm just today checking in on indexes and operational chart trends to plan my flight back after having fled for dear life over these last 6 weeks, to some non-extradition friendly warm haven .. heh.  This very predictable expose' on why living in this anal cavity region of the world is overrated at this time of year, was not ameliorated at all by synoptic warm burst a month ago - it only makes it that much worse...

But how do we really feel - hahaha

1 hour ago, chubbs said:

A less sarcastic take.

 

That's the aspect and what I'm also waiting out on this ...

     is there some how some way that an instrumentation idiosyncratic error happened. 

I also am wondering if the rather abrupt lost of the -ONI ( La Nina base state) that took place back in Feb into March may have equally abruptly "de-masked" - think 'snap back' where say, 3 years of GW relative suppression in the La Nina sea was suddenly removed, and we gain those three years back all at once

The problem is... it is weird to move the entire planetary oceanic surface mass by 2/10s of a degree C like that... We're talking about many ordera of magnitude in hydrogen bomb ( units, if there is such a thing) energy to do that... and doing so - most importantly - in 30 days.  That's not merely seasonal change doing that.  

a   this is all an instrumentation/systemic calibration glitch...

b   something seriously f'ed just happened at an unprecedented truly historic, and possibly scary implication scale for a plethora of reasons, too vast and too complex to calculate very quickly enough ... due to secondary and tertiary derivatives --> emergent properties via complex interactions in time... All of which is too vast to categorize before any will-be consequences are observed.  

Human kind has always been vastly more proficient at reconstructing disasters and ferreting out the causalities, after the fact ... than they are at predicting the future nearly as adroitly.  If they were ...we wouldn't be in this mess 

On 5/4/2023 at 6:29 AM, chubbs said:

 

It seems like this is happening to0 close to the objectively observed/realized loss of the -ONI during this mid spring ... which was teetering on ending since mid or late January really, but suddenly accelerated to neutral rather recently... And it wasn't merely the SSTs associated with the ONI .. but the total evaluation considers the thermocline and other llv wind etc etc.  

It's hard the relay between the -ONI to this weird spike has been silently extraordinary.  It almost as a 'rebound' phenomenon

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Correction vector ?

More like correction pecker the way this spring is with these models.

jeezus

NAM -based machine guidance now 70+ at BDL, FIT, ASH, and BED   ... so yeah, with the over arching synoptics through the period, the "vector" would be pointed at warmer - but we're not going crazy with that assessment, either.

... Like the old 2 or may 3 F higher than machine - typical in the front side of the solar max (May to late June) for machine to error by small values on the cool side, on days of high sun over top zip CAA.

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Saturday certainly has potential to overachieve as does Sunday. In fact, Sunday certainly has the greater potential, but one caveat right now is there may be some mid-to-high level clouds streaming southeast across the region from Canada. Obviously several days out so take with a grain of salt, but if we get strong heating/mixing Sunday 70's should be quite common. Maybe near 75 in the torch spots?  

This weekend is a light, d-slope flow of "prime-able" air because it doens't have CAA integrating the trajectory.  So it'll all come down to sunshine.

Yeah..that's why I elaborated about not knowing how accurate the typical ceiling height RH handling is - agreed.  If the sun gets pig piled it's 65.   But it's such a huge factor at this time of year. If/when CAA is not in the region, the sun up temp can be capped by clouds a linger into the afternoon, and it gets sunny at circa 2pm and you burst for 10 from that alone. 

LOL... it's not exactly a riveting topic, the different between 64 and 74 ... no. BUT, the intangible I'm monitoring is the 'jolt' ... spending in a week in the dungeon with the Labradorian "gimp" and then transitioning all at once are interesting phenomenon to me.

edit previous, actually MEX is 70 or higher now so ... might be some correction getting in closer

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Today blows. No sugarcoating this one . But the lighted tunnel is right there . One more day 

I'd give it Friday, too but agreed in principle.

Saturday ... both the 2-meter product suites from the GFS and Euro look a tad too conservative with d-slope flow. 850's raise to +5C by 4-6pm, indicative of mixing having been successful above 925mb...  after roaring sun much of the day...  Yet, they're capping in that 66-69 range?  I suspect the actualized 2-meter temperatures should be 72 to 74. 

This is true for Sunday ... and perhaps Monday as well, but there may be a BD in the area that day. 

The question is, does the sun hammer?  The RH at the typical ceiling heights is generally at or less than 50% but I'm not sure how accurate those RH levels are in the guidance.  Either way... the synopsis favors drying the column with the deep layer flow bumping over the cordillera from the NW, and then en mass, having to then go d-slope, most importantly...a behavior that sans CAA while that is happening.

I noticed the on-camera mets were hanging temps in the mid to upper 60s yesterday when running mill at the gym...  Seems they're lifting numbers off machine.  Some conditioning do to recent drab/cool unrelenting may be temping folks to be conservative.

It's not even subjectively debatable...

It's ben 5 to 7 days of crud - period. 

Now..tomorrow we nadir.  Than, Friday... modest improvement. 

Saturday flushes out the last of the cool pool as it hangs over the region at 12z that morning, but soars during the day to + 5 ...7 C , on a d-slope deep layer trajectory and zip ceiling level RH ( which is code for big sun), and that day mid afternoon will be like stepping through a portal to another universe compared to this cold rain and elevation wet snow we have been actually measuring in real data over the last week...

"...To warm the entire planet takes an extraordinary amount of extra energy. Recent research shows we've added the energy of 25 billion nuclear bombs to the Earth system in just the last 50 years ...

  ... But almost all of this energy to date has been taken up by the oceans. It's no wonder we're seeing rapid warming in our oceans..."

Just a few turn of phrase in an interesting perspective summary written here,

https://phys.org/news/2023-05-trillion-tons-greenhouse-gases-billion.html

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

More rain.

I have an idea that Thursday might sneak pepper some proper anvil height activity around, as this p.o.s. circulation mutes to just being a residual shearing mid level cold pool by then, but we are warming beneath via more sun penetration.  Friday too -

not a big deal, but BL will destabilize more than guidance shows if we get better near solar max sun intensity before noons...

It's interesting looking over hi res vis loops... These convective explosions are actually capping below the cirrus altitudes.   Looks like more of those altostratus layer anvil types we saw yesterday.  

----

'low confidence' hypothesis:  with all this onshore flow ( E, N of BOS latitude, and SE over the Bite Waters) we are plagued with, might this be an environmental ( lagged) feed-back to upping SSTs for mid and late summers around the horn...

----

Telecon spread still favors, at minumum, a relaxation of this shit ... I'd call that a crucial staged improvement ... if for our own sanity alone LOL.   No but, the La Nina "firewall" (inhibition) is pretty much dead... That's critical in the analysis that the present powerful Marine sub-continental MJO presentation may actually have some success in dispersion/ R-wave modulation across the Pacific and eventually into the western Hemisphere.  The trick is, ...that term "eventually"

It is not clear if the [apparent] lack of coherency in doing so, to date, is merely because we are in the lag window... i.e., perhaps the physical forcing isn't getting into the framework quite proficiently enough. When/if it does ... somewhat of a wholesale correction washes over the guidance. Or, the relaxation discussed above, maybe that is all we get from it?

It is possible that a synoptic warm burst is embedded in that May ~ 10 to 20th time frame... if not a more obvious warmer look than what we are seeing now, too.  SO there's that....

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The people up here that were giddy back this winter when winter didn't show up until mid Jan or so are not so giddy now and as i told them then, Be careful what you wish for as it will end up being a late season and a crappy spring outside of that one good week last month.

Word. 

22 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Still raining.  Make it stop.

If I were a curious god …

Just for shits and giggles, I’d expose the entire region inside WI-NC-E QUE to the power of 10 suns …

… sit back with popcorn and a coke and watch this planetary scaled turd of cyclonic stench, which clearly has developed its own deviant sentience at this point  ( think tied up in shack by serial rapist …) try and survive against a yato yato yato -scaled thermal deluge

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Going to need some good weather after this onslaught the last several days, Make it stop.

Imagine it 44 F by day … 40 by night, with winds gusting to 48 mph in driving rain that mixes with sleet over interior elevations, lasting for two days. When exits … the temp doesn’t change.  Drizzle under deep murk persists … three days later. The Nor’easter reduxes, undistinguished … followed by a nearly identical total cycle of reprieve to redux event. 

Unrelenting … for three weeks. No exceptions 

That was three weeks in May, 2005. 

Compared to that … we just “suffered” a relative utopia 

Weekend still looks dandy ... In fact, the Euro's lowered typical cloud height RH levels even further.  Both it and the GFS depicted unilateral flow from 925 to 300 mb levels on a NW trajectory, bumping over the terrain and down-sloped throughout all areas, with 925 mb between +10 and 12C. 

2-meter's would likely make 20 to 23C under that provided the sun works out.  As is in the Euro, borderline but would likely be 80% sun with the down slope drying. So in every day terms ... 72 to 74.  Winds are very light, too.

10 hours ago, tunafish said:

Neat

 

And with that, we've brought you the severe weather season in New England ...  Please join us again next year at this time, when we'll behold ... the skull knock riveting debate over the difference between pea -sized hail and grapple

28 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

ha I wish .. not quite pea size

Same here ...  peas along side some excessive rain rates... only lasted 4 minutes.   Single rumble of thunder... 

3 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

thunder and bb sized hail

bb = "Base  Ball" sized hail ??!!!!!

holy shit

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Overall May looking like #noheat

There's still hope, though.  Mid month, based on signals emanating out of the Pacific/tropical dispersion stuff.   

I mean if that's your bag.  I don't personally want it "hot" - who does...  But folks should bear in mind, we had a signal similar to that a month ago, at the beginning of April ... And we ended up popping the 90 cherry two days back-to-back at some sites.

That was more of a 'synoptic heat burst' but ...they tend to nest in warming signals span of time.  That's a bit different than a wholesale warm pattern look, though.

The deal at mid month isn't fantasy - whether it emerges will come down to whether there are other forces compensating ..blah blah blah... 

At minimum ... it seems that this weekend is like graduating seasonal change to the next level.  We can certainly have days crumbled in this 55F cyclonic rubble ... all summer long in this POS summer climate up here.  But sans spanning a whole week, and just lowering frequency of this kind of shit seems to want to begin this weekend.