Typhoon Tip

Pretty damn nice out for being embedded in April’s rectum …

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I've seen pics from Eric and Scott (Mainejayhawk and Powderfreak). Those are high quality shots from a good camera with maybe a hint of augmentation....and that is perfectly fine. Perhaps they do nothing to them.  I love their pics. 

Oh I've been trying to get PF rich with those land scape shots for years but ...nope - he just loves his provincial mountain dwellings too much I guess... 

57 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

12z GFS is a bit wet from Saturday night into early next week.. 

I was wondering if/when it would come around... The NAEF system has been selling more than the operational runs ...but the EPS/GEPs were more in line with the former.

I don't think it will put us hugely over-budget into a 1987 or 2005 or 2010 ..  but, might be able to see some creek side little legal ball parks under water. You know ...when green trash barrels and the playground swing set near by are half under,

Mm... the issue ( originally aroused for sarcastic humor) isn't art value. It was about when not being clear that what is being shown is intended for "art"; that could be a problem. 

Pointing out the obvious here: We don't know what is the 'organic' experience, then ... Which in fact means more in truth, as to the extent of what reality is. 

When someone titles and contents a Tweet without recognizing the exaggeration/doctoring due to technology, merely broadcasting their vantage point of the event, that is manipulative (i.e. can and usually ends up being, divisive )

You know.. op ed: we live a media soaked impression of what reality is, already.  Which has turned that "could be a problem" above into a whopping IS. These fantastic Tweet phenomenon, regardless of aurora this ... or deep fake that... whatever, they are just microcosms of the same practice of the "Industrial Media Complex."  Media makes money. The Tweeter gets their notoriety... Whatever the currency sought, aside ... it is disingenuous in either sense. 

The whole practice ( "really" haha) markets their "recreation" to the blind - so to speak ... - those whom ( and unfortunately, this appears to be proven > 50% of the populous) are initially less if not totally unprepared to objectively scrutinize what they are seeing/hearing...  The commoner's don't have a chance.  ha. I mean, the technology is beyond their scope of understanding, so the dazzling display is more akin to the first protohominid lifting a burning flame.

21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

At least here in light pollution heavy central CT, it was much more faint. Barely visible. But that’s beside the point? The fact that it’s even visible here…and quite visible in darker locations as far as Texas speaks for itself? 

Well yeah...  it is what is.  Not to discredit one being able to see - or ridicule the significance of the event ( I was initially poking fun at the audience seekers out there that use technology... blah blah). 

I've driven I84 at night a few times, though... It seemed to me once 10 or so miles up the way heading out of Hartford, that sky up there gets pretty damn dark though. If "ambient light pollution" in this context means diffused artificial light, that would cloak ( ironic oxymoron -) the existence of smaller nooks that may offer some better viewing chances.  sure. 

Man, I just wonder how a Carrington -scaled event would compete with the illumination grid of the planet. Well...heh, ultimately it would win of course. Because within an hour or two of onset, the grid sectors would start blinking off in chunks... but for a time, would you be able to see those unworldly spirits that seem like they could almost touch the tree tops in downtown NYC, or how 'bout "Lost" to Morality Vegas - that'd be the shits.

You ever see those satellite/night displays of the landscape, and the artificial lights looking nerve cells replete with dendritic connections to nearby other nerve cells...  digress

40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EVERYTHING is saturated these days. I was thinking the same, how did it look with the naked eye? 

I did see an iPhone video taken outside of Fairbanks Alaska a month or so ago, ...when a sneaking CME that for some reason escaped the detection methods ... slammed the Earth out of nowhere ( or it may have been one of those "co-rotating" deals).  The guy was moving the vantage of the phone's camera around an undulatory sky of light curtains while crowd oo's and ah's were audible in the background. He was offering some baser hick expletives of his own... 

That's in Alaska though. 

The last time I saw unaided aurora my self (mid latitudes) was way back in 1985 around 11pm in Rockport Mass, looking NNE from Long Beach.  It was very low on the horizon and you had to stare for a while to see it or gain much impression of any irregular light pulsations...  Prior to that, I saw it several times in Michigan growing up a young lad.  Oh wait ...I forgot. I went back there for an autumn in 1990 and saw a pretty good display that was higher in the sky ... But, that looked nothing like these renderings we are seeing on social media so frequently nowadays.

I suspect the ambient light pollution from PWM-ATL east of Appalachia also represents certain interference problems for ooing and aahing caliber displays, too. 

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 

Tough stretch for the KFS. 

Yeah, pretty low slugging percentage for the first month of this years 'summer batting' season...

was that witnessed by unaided eye, though?

... with camera tech the way it is, and pervasive these days, ... these auroras are photoed by way of timed exposures, that are then rendered to Twitter and other social media platforms under the auspices of, 'look what I saw last night' - leaving the part out that they could not have "seen" anything without these devices.

I rarely see a disclaimer or any comment at all really that says, 'I am not actually worthy of the center of attention I'm seeking, because I could not have seen this without high tech assistance' 

lol.  No but these long exposures can "see" auroras that glancing at the nocturnal firmament alone more commonly cannot detect.

Tomorrow looks sneaky gem like. 

The giggedy range of the GFS with a continental heat dome forming ... 

I think in this case, however, we should watch for that sort of emergence in general as we head toward D12 and beyond, based on long lead perceived telecon modes.  The ONI is offering less resistance to tropical forcing with the waning La Nina, which there is such a forcing that appears to replace this current ...whatever the f this is... 

I know what it is though - we're suffering a blocking hang over from eastern N/A and Asian early heat dispersion into higher latitudes ... but anyway.  When this wanes out there is an actual wave signature emerging in the RMM correlating to heat, and without very many offsets it may couple to the R-wave momentum giving to a quasi- standing wave over N/A ...  Speculative, but I personally wouldn't be shocked if early heat balloons E of 110 W

11 minutes ago, Supernovice said:

Aurora’s to Boston tonight??
 

Too bad it’s cloudy. Pretty significant solar storm ongoing 

Going back well over a decade... I've been noting a remarkably tight correlation between space weather activity, and New England's inability to ever see them due to terrestrial weather interference.

I guess it depends on what sector your in  - in other words, any lag may be below the regional scale ...

Up here we are if anything ahead by ~ a week, so close to climo.  And with the addition of today's water we'll be about on target for hyrdo too. 

What we are is way above normal in temperature.

So, putting all that together and dividing by N terms ... doesn't really scream a belated spring for the Mohawk Trail/Rt 2 crowd.

That sounds like the genesis of a new narrative -

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

1.07” and looking ugly

I'm surprised there isn't even a rudimentary sort of flood statement down here. 

Gray ME office has a statement ...

I kind of like the lower bandwidth rad NWS is switching to - or 'back' to... Looks similar but not exactly like the product they had prior to the 'pretty much no radar worth using era at all' they just sent us through over the last couple of years...  

Not sure why, but the "enhanced" product is not really as good from a user experience - for me anyway.  It may be all primitive, as part of an ongoing longer term product evolution/plan.  But I have an iphone, couple of laptops with Celeron tech, and a home PC with quad, 2.51 GZ processor core. Yet, using any of these, the term 'enhanced' would not be the adjective I would use to describe the user experience.  I think the bigger problem is both the navigation response, as well as frame load times. Both are frustrating ... even on these latter conventional technology platforms.

1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said:

A$$. This weather is a$$. That is all. 

no no.  Tomorrow is a$$  ...

today is just smells like the a$$, tomorrow ... SNE's collective head is rammed up in the rectum

59 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

wouldn’t be shocked to see flakes, but something measurable would be tough to pull off .. that EURO run is def intriguing though.  

It's unlikely ... I mean not that you need to be told that.  

From a telecon perspective the pattern nadirs then, however.  The presently evolving -NAO ( west limb) is by then collapsing, as the +PNA renders to an amplified +PNAP maximum. That timing of those particular major mass field indicators is cyclogen correlated. 

Specific to the deep layer synoptics, it's dubious...with a 983 mb low escaping over the BM and a new 980 mb out of no where popping off back west like that... It is indicative of a weak baroclinic physics in the lower levels, while pure mid level forcing.  The thermal setting is marginal ...but marginal ( as in +- 0C at 850) at the end of April doesn't typically cut it.  We'd need more substantial anomaly ... say  -2 or -3C, and down into the 925 mb levels by that late in the year. 

The Euro has a bit of curvature bias at that range, too. That is a D7+ Euro cyclogen look to it.   Nevertheless, the GEFs and EPS members have some deeper members cluster around the DM to BM give or take some longitude ...  

That's about it for now.  My guess is > 50% odds it won't look like that on the next run.  

Get's hot in May...

we just have to stick it out the next 10 days

39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Lots of mid level junk for awhile. But hopefully some breaks.

It's completely clear W-S of here now.   This type of mid level I've seen many times in the past... it seems to be fragile and related to nocturnal sounding nuances, but the sun tips over the morning horizon and goes to work and it just disappears - the sat loops seems to suggest this is one of those mornings with that stuff. 

May be a diffused/elevated warm frontal structure entangled in that too...

54 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The back door presses to the northern mid Atlantic tonight, and then recedes back towards CNE by tomorrow morning.

I’m very skeptical of the latter part— the teles and seasonality argue for a “best in Maine” setup on Saturday. It’s a pretty classic setup for miserable weather in coastal northern mid Atlantic. I think the door presses South all day today then stalls somewhere around LI tonight and remains there most of Saturday.

Saturday has a much better chance of being a shit day to the northern Jersey shore than 70. 

With that I still think Saturday turns out “decent” up here, but we are definitely running out of time, guidance wise.

Yeah, #MeToo

... The April casting couch has hand cuffs when it comes to escaping the influence of BDs 

That curved pressure pattern bulging in from the E through early tomorrow ( ahead of the main baro-c axis) probably keeps SE flow in the lowest levels.  

Game over for warm fronts...

The best bet is to be so far on the N-E side of boundary that we clear out from that subsidence.  ...Sometimes the exclusion pattern really hits home when you see a clear sky coming in from the wrong direction... haha.  Anyway, not sure that's even doable.  

I think today is an interior gem and then folks should plan on a bit of 'rhea for several days. 

I am noticing though that the models are attempting alleviation from the drear on the 00z solution spread. It's mostly in the deterministic solutions, tho..   The Euro and GGEM were actually improved over prior runs for D7-10.   Hopefully that has legs. 

Hi everyone ... 

 ...I'm interesting in establishing an ongoing discussion, ranging from disciplined research to general aspects involving environment.  It could/would encompass the total manifold that exists under the general rubric of "anthropomorphic pollution" . 

This is a weather -based social media platform, so it may not be entirely appropriate in the strictest sense ...  However, merely starting the thread in Off-Topic lounge probably doesn't get noticed?  Aside, OT is really evolved to be purposed for other uses - to put in kindly ... There's not much purpose in attempting much there.

It is not entirely disconnected.  Atmospheric aerosols that contribute to soil acidification - as just one example ... - are also connected to climate due to atmospheric microphysics and radiation budgeting... etc.  

Of the two … the GFS last 2 runs are worse imo. 

sometimes these kind of back of the igloo patterns in spring end up a little less repugnant as the models paint. 

in theory, the hemisphere is trying to lose winter ...  but we're saddled with a -NAO in the guidance, one that takes several days to retrograde fully... during that time, if we don't fully 'rhea, we're dealing with that annoying spring chill shit most likely.

then, afterward, the models 'think' that's it - the pattern stays that way to oblivion without any block or real wave signature making that happen.  i suspect that's all false out there beyond D 10 or 12, and we'll probably see some modulation start to emerge at some point in future guidance.

Ode to spring's anus ...

https://phys.org/news/2023-04-devastating-greenland-antarctic-ice-sheets.html