Typhoon Tip

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Effing cirrus. 

yup.  I was just wryly humoring that with Still N of Pike ...

I wasn't really even considering this milk stuff over the last couple of days of modeling. Just flat out didn't think to look.  heh

Although the sun does appear to be penetrating more up my way now, and sat is trying to open... 

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Beautiful day today . Top 10 

 

 

mm..  9.5

milk overcast is sort of reminiscent of a post holocaust waste land ... when the sky is a pale pal of unhealthy enfeebled sun struggling to cast over a landscape devoid of vegetation.  

I guess we have to keep in mind some sense of 'seasonal relativity' LOL... I mean, whats the f'ed up alternative at THIS time of year.  Jesus - yeah...

35 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I like to view these anomalies as "signs of things to come". It's what we can look forward too in the near-ish future. 

Yeah.... sometimes that seems to be the case.   But ( obviously you know this ...) that "seems" might also have some bit of interpretation bias.  I think we remember the times a cold autumn blast preceded an early winter, or early heat preceded a hot summer with EF5s tunneling to China ( ...see what I did for you there ? ), more so than the times they don't? 

In short, memory bias may be inflating significance.

It's a statistical study to prove one way or the other.  But my personal hunch is that these early occurrences of warm(cool) in spring(fall) ...actually don't really correlate too well.  I think we've already been to the hills and back with discussion over this when on some day circa October ...there are virga shrouded CAA CU with one or two packing pellets on car roof tops ... and all the sudden, a tsunamis of posts brimming with optimism - it's a bit cringy though, because we've shown that it reflects a falsity in that regard.

The problem with optimism in the wrangle of controlling one's psychology in this shit, is that it is a code word for 'already has hopes lubed up and ready for blue balling'  The trick is to not be swayed one way or the other by or because of the first feel of it, particularly if/when there is not enough statistics that really show that it really matters. 

I don't have as much of a feel for it in spring, admittedly.  I've seen more warm springs parlay to warm summers than the cold falls parlaying favorably to winter of lore.  Shy of doing that actual statistical analysis, that is ... It's something I am at least tacitly aware of most years, because I have a weird sort of fetish above heat wave phenomenon. I'm usually paying attention to leading and during temperature anomaly synoptics et al during summers. 

Just for the sake of discussion ... folks should get their heads around the notion that what is likely to be the case both sensibly and empirically with temperature and sky this week, these conditions are/were never going to be sustainable in April.

Should celebrate the warm burst for what it is - and enjoy it if one's psychology permits. Because any tendency to grouse has no basis in what is fair.

34 minutes ago, BrianW said:

Maples will be leafed out by the weekend here. 

 

it's going to be interesting and inCREdibly nerdy lol to gauge the response..

Wed night through Friday night may actually be within a couple degrees of 60 F. That should really initiate things pretty quickly.

The red maples up my way are the only above shrub level activation ...and it's still just the rusty red.   These cold nights have been slowing matters.  Spring diurnals prior to green up are typically rather large, but we've been getting a lot of 23 F low temps. Willing to speculate this has been a retarding factor.

It'll be weird walking around in an 84 F ambience with that nuclear wasteland look in the flora.. 

Just now, MJO812 said:

It's insane how fast this pattern is switching to a strong El Nino pattern.

what ... where is that coming from?

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Have definitely noticed them up here more and more.  Especially the pre-vegetation “warm bursts” as you call it. It seems we have an annual desire now to pump 75F+ with ease into pre-vegetation landscapes that even include snow cover in spots and especially the mountains.

Theres still snow in my yard that this week will take care of but BTV NWS even mentioned the “take the over” on temps and under on RH with no greenery in place yet.  It was what, a couple years ago it was like 90F with 12% RH on leafless forests?  Like 95F at some ASOS sites in NNE?  But that was May.

We definitely can get some over machine numbers on those dry heat bursts with no green up in place yet.

Yeah...the acclimating is interesting as a 'human' angle on that.  It seems that even in the Met/climo community, there's a kind of 'expectation aura' there? 

It's probably just unavoidable ... but similarly, so much of it and it's 'okay.'  Now, if we sans the 12" snow storms (20 up by you..), the winters were mediocre (imagine taking that tact in 1989?  ha) ... But springs are shitty now too if the temperatures are average.   Sort of...

By the way, I'm up 35 F since 5:30 am !   zomb diurnal baby. That's the yearly record for me.  And it's not over with +5 a 850 by day's end. We could squeeze 70 out of this bad bad and really put some stank on busting up machine numbers -

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Let’s goooo.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 434 AM EDT Monday...This period will be dominated by very warm conditions (highs exceeding 70 each day for most locations below 2000 feet), flirting with daily records at times. Given the degree and timing of this warm up, expect marine recreation to be popular this weekend and will message cold water awareness and safety later in the week as an early reminder. Interestingly this stretch of warm weather is reminiscent of that two years ago, which featured eight consecutive days in Burlington in which the high temperature exceeded 60, including 4 in a row above 70 from April 8 to 11.

 

This is a spring 'synoptic warm burst,' as I've been calling it.   Not trying to seal credit there or anything silly of the sort, but it is just to point out that it's a new kind of climate phenomenon ( I really believe - ) that's becoming more frequent in the Feb-Mar-Apr seasonality.

...they're basically defined by +20 ( or so...) daily means that really stick out as curvature 'spikes' on the graphical histories.   It's fascinating to me...   But all these weird 85s in those three month period is an alarming increase return rate compared to any time prior to 1998 and is worth the denote/recognition imho

This week...particularly Thurs/Fri is likely to be one of those.   And their synoptics are recognizably similar when they occur.  Although this one ( interestingly...) is a dimmed 500 mb non-hydrostatic variant, albeit still qualifying overall.

29 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Looks like an unbeatable spring week on tap. Perhaps we leaf out by Saturday? Stein away, baby!

I get the funny sense the only thing holding matters back is the fact that we keep bottoming out at nights.  Just looking back at the weather typology ...it's not been like late snows, or show stopping late cold... just a lot of chilly nights. Seems to be the only factor preventing. Other than a one or two overnights over the recent 10 days we've been frosting/freezing temperatures outside of urban areas.  22 to 30 F more oft than not is likely closing cracked buds by night.  Forsythia to lilac have been in a kind of suspended bud swell for over a week.  Usually if their presenting they've opened by now.  Lawns started to green tint a couple of weeks back but also stalled some ...

So yeah... the anticipation is that the next several days exceeding 60 and night above 40 should accelerate. 

Wednesday still looks like a steal back day for VT/NH/ME, tho, as that potent S/W dives out of Quebec and compresses the flow for a day.  It's interesting to see the non-hydrostatic heights rising over Ohio/PA while that thing is whisking by ... It's laying in 12 to 18 hour of cold in ME while the larger signal is trying to go the other direction.  Makes for a lot of gradient.   Could be 78 in NYC and 42 in CAR on Wednesday. In fact, Maine remains bonked on Thursday when SNE gets into the upper 70s fun yet CAR ...46ish?  

I guess that's not too crazy. No one living above PWM's latitude up there carries on with many delusions about this time of year, but it's certainly indicative of winter's petty reclamation of real-estate for a day. A phenomenon we all risk N-E of the PIT-NYC damned latitudes in spring

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I meant we are transitioning to a Nino state in the tropical Pacific. That sort of helps propel some ridging out west into Rockies and troughs here. I mean our climo alone already is prone to that. 

ok, right - just as a 'template' circulation mode.  sure. 

It's pretty convoluted out there.  Looks like bowling season, perhaps a late attempt at one.  I mean, the wave lengths are quite obviously shortened, and the total velocities in the ambience scale are way down.  Ending up with cut-off(s) is probably a no brainer.  And given our climatological upstate NY rural rape shack captivity with those ... good luck. 

But hell ... maybe we'll score ( haha)

Scott's right ...  (altho not sure about the Nino referencing but that's something else)

There is a significant enough statistical/lag correlation following warm bursts for some sort of negative NAO response.  

Now ... as 'statistic' implies, that does not mean every time.   But, it is both statistically true, and also ...makes sense for a couple of super synoptic conceptual reasons.

1    all warm air masses, particularly those with node identity in mid latitudes (meaning physically exerting), such that the end of the week definitely qualifies, have to go some where... On Earth ( ... anyway)  that means moving toward higher latitudes. Guess where/what "higher latitudes" means with regard to New England?  If your answer contains a facet that sounds like 'the NAO domain space' of rhea hell, you get a gold star. (Oh... the idea there, warm air moving into the NAO domain space does so aloft and triggers a positive height response - ie, blocking)

2   at an even broader conceptual consideration ... the climate is not going to surge by 30 F because of this next week.  99.99% certainty ...barring the birth of a new sun making Earth a captive audience to a double solar powered, circumbinary orbit like Tatooine ... the climate needle is only going to move maybe a decimal or two along the CC trajectory.  Which means, come next Saturday, ...with a series of days putting +20s in the till, some how, some way, ...we're paying taxes on those dividends ( particularly in Aprils!)  You can feel confident that April is not likely to finish that way... Somethin's likely to correct matters.

Yeah, ... there can be extraordinarily rare months. Circa March 2012 for example.  But this is probably not that.  We've already "wasted" the first 9 days with "unimpressive" +4. LOL.  It's topic for another time but there is a leitmotif that began ( I noticed ) about 10 years ago, this phenomenon where despite warm anomalies... the impression/"feel" was a cold loaded span of time - it's weird.  Something that's going on, a kind of disconnect, that is being encouraged between sensible weather, vs reality, as a separate fascinating topic for nerds.

Anyway, some how some some way ... we are more likely to end up somewhere between 1 and 2 above.  If it doesn't happen like the 280 hour 00z GFSies ... it's likely to be offset in the aggregate days of dice rolling.

Know what would be weird…? 
 

A spring snow storm raging on with like wind and blowing snow 1982 style. And then the total eclipse of the sun happens right in the middle of it I mean you go from like gray blue cryo- Misty rage already …into just total loss of light. That would be so bizarre.

MEX is approaching 20 pts over climo for the end of the week.  

That certainly should qualify as a spring 'warm burst' phenomenon.   76 at D5/6/7 is pretty difficult to do prior to the 15th of April from that particular interpolation as those are heavier weighted to climatology the further out in time - which is only 57 to 60.

Also ... both the GFS and Euro trying to back off the mid week trough idea.  Duck, though... close.  Huge gradient between SNE and Maine on these runs. 

That was a better GFS run.  I little less aggressive mid week with that weird BD nuke S/W...also, stays the warmup through Saturday

Today is so far obnoxiously cold. 

4 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Issuing a CAPE watch for next weekend. This mean combination of temperatures, dewpoints, and/or steep mid-level lapse rates may yield enough CAPE ahead of an approaching cold front to yield the risk for thunderstorms. 

yeah...as in, "watch as the CAPE gets shunted SW of ever getting into New England"  - sounds like a thrilling expenditure of time...

The warm up next week might be in trouble. 

GGEM and GFS have a diving intense S/W that would punch a pretty cold hole in that notion for uninterrupted span of days. 

The notion of "termination shock" is very interesting.   

I believe it was Libertybell. He and I were musing months ... if not a couple years at this point, a science fiction novel whose theme would be rooted in that plausibility ... Termination bounce-back phenomenon. 

Shutting things down too quickly ...  you know, alcoholics can die if they attempt to detox too fast - that is an example of termination shock in a single organism. Perhaps as a microcosm it supplies a metaphor for "Gaia".  

If there compensating forces in play that were happening within the din, and we remove the din, the compensating forces may rise to a state of proxy. And the system may rebound out of control - the pendulum swings the other way. 

On 1/11/2023 at 9:05 AM, donsutherland1 said:

2022 surpassed the ocean set record that was set just last year. Most recently, such heat records were also set in 2019 and 2020. Excerpts from a newly-published report:

Driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, there is an energy imbalance in the Earth’s climate system. More than 90% of the excess heat accumulated in the climate system is deposited in the world’s oceans. The ocean heat content (OHC) influences ocean–atmosphere interactions by providing thermal inertia to sea surface temperatures and thus exerts considerable control over the world’s weather. Rising ocean temperatures bolster the energy exchanges from ocean to atmosphere, increase the quantity of atmospheric moisture, and change the patterns of precipitation and temperature globally...

[G]lobal OHC has increased steadily, regardless of the status of ENSO, owing to anthropogenic influences. When considered on an annual basis, 2022 is the hottest year ever recorded in the world’s oceans. Its OHC exceeds that of 2021 by 10.9 ± 8.3 ZJ according to IAP/CAS data, and by 9.1 ± 8.7 ZJ according to NCEI/NOAA data (for the 0–2000 m water depth)...

The complete paper can be found here.

Don ...did you see the recent papers citing direct evidence of the salinity imbalance around Antarctica ?

The findings suggest the slowing of the conveyors is not just a N. Atlantic problem. 

https://phys.org/news/2023-03-deep-ocean-currents-antarctica-collapse.html

The implications range in a broad spectrum of consequence ... from destabilizing climate in an already destabilized climate (heh), to adding to species migration and/or loss.

It's impressive to see +14 to +21 machine/interpolated high temperatures between D5 and 7 (MEX)

The synoptics are still fragile looking, however.  

Euro's attempting the shorten the warmth next week with a big high idea ... I was hoping we could get that to last into that weekend but this run is got a sloped flow through the Maritimes and trough up there which ends it here

Well ... we had the day last week where we were hung up under an inversion/murk sky until 3:15 here amid the Nashoba Valley area N/E Mass, and guess what... despite only being 40 at 2pm we still burst made 66 by around 5 pm before settling slow down.

There is also a gradation in this thing... It'll likely make 74 at BDL and if it only makes 62 at Merrimack NH ( for example or something like that) ...that's still a relative win in warmth.   That said, ...it is also a compromise to some degree ( literally ) between the various modeling vs the undeniable aspects of April climo in anus hole continental America

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We Stein with a week of heat 

 

Warmth may be the most fragile synoptic type in modeling ... particularly along and N of 40.  But, assuming the present synoptic look works out ... he may be too cool on Tuesday and Wednesday ...

I've seen it be close to 60 F over a snow pack in mid February with 850 mb of 0C ...  

Between April 10 and 15th...  +3 to +10 850s with > 80% sun soak while there is a persistent continental transport (wind)?  It should be warmer than 63 and 66 ...

Could be a quite a string of days ... Mon - Thurs 

Days featuring low RH air type, open skies through which rising April sun encourages boundary layer heights to expand into the +10 C 875 mb range.  Probably 72 to 82 those daily afternoons.  Wind isn't bonkers, either...

GGEM was mid 80s but ... in deference to April I'll back burner that thinking.  

NAM caved to the warmer look finally. Not sure I buy it … but it did come in way different