Typhoon Tip

https://www.instagram.com/p/DLUx33htNZZ/?igsh=MTl4ZGNqbHV4NGsxbw==

On 4/21/2025 at 10:54 PM, bristolri_wx said:

The CFS thinks the earth is on fire all the time.  CANSIPS DJF 25/26:

 

Considering what it’s doing to the polar Arctic region up there… I don’t think it’s a hell of a lot better

8 minutes ago, kdxken said:

I'm actually laughing out loud. That's how wars get started

Yeah, anyway this is like standard summer heat today… It wasn’t out of control
If that’s what people’s point is, I don’t have problem with that. 

So the reason why the heat index is the same here as it is and Atlanta Georgia or Florida Dallas or whatever, yet no advisory, is because of acclamation bias, which is a very real legitimate concern - has to be factored into pulling headline triggers. 

Ex, Virginia Beach gets a winter storm warning and a town shut down for four days over 3 inches of snow 
 

2 minutes ago, kdxken said:

See post above

Oh. Lol

okay

4 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Only problem Tip , I never mentioned Northern Connecticut before our discussion and your reply. In fact, I mentioned southborough and Southern New Hampshire which were hotter than most.  Maybe you confused me with someone else. We good...

 

 

Yes, you did
You posted that excerpt placing that Connecticut shit in the center of the image

of course you did

Jesus you won’t quit with this goddamn gaslighting crap

shut the fuck up

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

For sure, wandering instrument is most likely and that’s why I said it was worth checking out.  Sorry if that wasn’t clear.

PBG, the dews did drop into the mid/upper 50s while the temp spiked on west wind.

Instead of 88/70 it was 96/57?

Thermodynamically it works but that station isn’t known for doing that, despite being in the shadow of the Adirondacks.  Maybe something changed around the site allowing better mixing?

Or the sensor is just off, haha.

Agreed… But you know we’re also getting these strange heat things everywhere. I’ll just leave it at that.

21 minutes ago, kdxken said:

 Tell me what I was gaslighting?

You need to say this sentence to me otherwise we’re not having this conversation further:

‘I should not have used an isolated area of northern Connecticut to characterize a total situation that was in fact hotter.’

The fact that you tried to do that comes off as gaslighting… Maybe it was maybe it wasn’t. I hate it when people fiddle with facts. It’s like gerrymandering reality

Maybe you’re just one of these people that thinks their backyard represents everywhere. I don’t know, but I didn’t think you were that dumb either

Because you use something tactically to manipulate or attempt to manipulate somebody to thinking of a reality that wasn’t so 

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Worth checking on PBG.

The 100F degree day fit on the westerly winds off the Adirondacks and associated obs.  However, I’ve paid attention to weather up here for over two decades now and haven’t seen that happen before.  In the moment it synoptically made sense, but why hadn’t it happened in any air mass before?

Now a 96F while BTV is 92F?  The BTV ob is in line with the MVL and MPV obs (MPV higher, so usually the coolest max of the 3).

But the PGB obs buck a multi-decade trend.  PBG is historically a degree or so cooler than BTV.

Could be instrumentation though?
It seems like these national weather service temp instruments are prone to slipping their calibration or something. 

Meh only one stroke 

LOL

5 minutes ago, kdxken said:

I mentioned nothing about the actual temperatures. Posted no meso temperatures. What I did mention was the national weather service heat index warning. Which was for 96°.  See below after the word what:

 

 

 

Dude, I did not say you mentioned anything about the temperatures. Why are you playing this fucked up verbal game - you’re trying to evade the fact that you were wrong by making this some other argument

This is what you said exactly and it was silly 

”Kind of a wimpy heat advisory though. 96 hi? That's your average summer day in Florida. ” which I responded to, clearly, by context.

I don’t really care, but I can’t stand when people try to gaslight - it’s a separate thing, not related to any kind of temperature debate, which there was none 

2 hours ago, kdxken said:

Did I argue anything about the heat index not being reached? Thought not...

You said “wimpy”

and used a meso region that comparatively did not represent the situation fairly. 

I responded to a clear tactic to diminish the extent of the reality - why this taking place from you and Indeedsnow is odd and teetering on a cred denter.  

Aside from frankly coming off as a wee bit dishonest and ‘gaslighty’ … or perhaps just delusional social media bate

you should probably drop it while the numbers are clear  

5 hours ago, rcostell said:

Unfortunately, some people are too naive, stubborn, ignorant or deluded by others to recognize the preponderance of actual evidence and real world events that point to an oncoming conclusion.  Just how it is- they then hear their own echo chamber or are goaded by others. For the greater good- I think these people should be politely ignored by those not so afflicted.  See Isaac Cline - 1900 Galveston Hurricane. 

It really is quite simple…

Denial happens because it’s enabled

That’s it. Nothing else…

Now, if we want to get into what’s the enabling, that’s a fascinating effect of the human social condition functioning in a state of multigenerational abundance of choice and technological advantage

These provide recourse, whereas the morality of survival and virtuosity of learning are both being dimmed by the state of resource provision making populations less proactive -frankly making the bulk density of humanity, dumber and dumber

Amongst many other feedbacks, it’s definitely going to block people from seeing the damage that can be caused by an abstraction like an invisible slow moving apocalypse

19 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Kind of a wimpy heat advisory though. 96 hi? That's your average summer day in Florida. 

 

 

there were 99s earlier for a couple of hours around metro west and typical town square regions that heat well...   

I mean what? you're giving me a 96 in 'portions of north CT ?   what are we,  cats with our heads jammed in paper bags thinking that's the whole world and we're safe in there - 

The heat indexes across the headlined area solidly verified based upon empirical data and HI formula ... 

Can we move on ? 

Today has verified heat index outlook/advisory headline.   This is empirically verified.  

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah good luck with that trough that 48 hours later goes back to big ridge.

just for general ... there's a massive heat signal from ~ the 18th thru the end of the month.  More impressively so say 21ish to 27-like.  

Huge -EPO whilst the PNA is negative is hemispheric climo footprint for Chicago to go body baggin' and with the NAO tending to be positive that's all academic after that.   

It's a helluva long way away, but I don't see us being BN before that either.   hot month

it's already 68 here

3 hours ago, dendrite said:

Huh? Over the top can be big heat. 

That's typically how we get our biggest heat as a matter of climate fact...

The model of AN in NE has 2 origins:

1  MS Valley/Gulf

2  S/W U.S.  

These have different large synoptic circulation modes and are easily identifiable.   

1  is a WAR sourced.   The West Atlantic Ridge retrogrades west and bulges the westerlies N of New England.  This tends to collocate with a surface ridging which imparts a deep layer SW flow from east Texas and the Gulf region up and around the periphery of the high.  This type of heat seldom exceeds the low 90s, but will transport high theta-e ( elevated DP) air.   think 92/76

2  is Sonoran desert/elevation processed heat.  This is led by a +PNA that collapses into a mode change -PNA.  This ejects plume(s) of intense kinetically charged desert air, with exceedingly hot 850 mb type temperatures, EMLs and very tall mixing columns on the soundings.  The -PNA sends heights higher over the eastern mid latitude continent, and the ejected plume(s) of high heat get timed into that ridge expansion and trapped.  This kind of AN pattern is typically where we get our biggest T. DPs may start out diurnal cycles in the 70s, but will tend to mix down to the 60s.  think 100/66

Sometimes... you can hybridize between these two ...  For example, the retrograding WAR may be coupled with a --> -PNA....  but there is no certainty while that is happening that a plume will be timed.  So it's important in climate awareness to understand the mechanistic differences in how the heat is transported across the continent.   

That EPS mean above is indicating the #2 method of heat transport is favored - assuming that gaudy look actually materializes that way.   

5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Unless Rt 2 can roast it's way back to 86 or 87 this next round's liable to turn right and head down into CT and shade us with vils

Nailed it 

Unless Rt 2 can roast it's way back to 86 or 87 this next round's liable to turn right and head down into CT and shade us with vils

Severe watch issued #2

anyway, you'll go back sunny in a half hour ... we'll see if we can recharge. 

we had a wind shift prior to this line moving in ...  was SW ..now WNW   I think this was a processed air from when this was over eastern NY earlier this morning.  it's not really associated/generated by this current/nascent stuff because it was too far out ahead.

yup there we go  nice cell near orange

Impressive CB structures visible here on the NW-N horizon associated with that...

I can also see TCU ( new) just up the way so I suspect Rt 2 may take off down here soon

Next chance for a heat wave is Sun-Mon-Tue ...    Tuesday's a bit of a wild card.  May fail, but Sun-Mon are modeled as low or middle 90s. 

Beyond that... there doesn't appear to be an ensemble supported cooler transport, so it's not clear how far down toward normal the ambience will settle off.   It may in fact stay modestly above normal during the remainder of the week. 

Beyond that...watching for the possibility of a newer warm ridge emergence.  The spatial synoptic layout of the ensemble, particularly in the EPS mean, for that that period show a distinct tendency for lowering heights in the Pac Nw...   At this time of year that teleconnects to a ridge in the mid lat continent down stream.   We're talking D10+ so the operational runs don't really have any responsibility to necessarily show that - so we'll see.  But that tendency preceded the eventual emergence of the bigger heat event recently when it too was in the 10 day to 2 week lead, but only vaguely.   It seems to be this is a leitmotif so far this warm season - could be an indicator for a warm summer if that continues.   In the meantime, I do suspect we'll have to contend with bigger heat once or twice during these next 3 weeks at some point.