Typhoon Tip

1 hour ago, eekuasepinniW said:

You are one weird dude. I said we were missing out because the timing was off and we were missing out on what would easily reach G2 or better.  Your "explanation" was evaded because the complex mechanics behind the weakness in the auroral oval on the daylight side of the earth, and premature evaluations of the Kp, were both rather irrelevant. 

You stated, ".. Bz is more than -20 so we're missing a great show. ..."  

It may have been a bad assumption but that sounded to me you were bummed out about it being day-time.  Sorry.

Whether it is relevant to you or not... fact of the matter is, Kp of 5 would be stressed to see it at our latitude even on a star lit night.  That index measure doesn't extend to our latitude - I don't see how that is irrelevant.  Nor premature - you should probably learn some tact.  I'm not some rube in this area of near -terrestrial physics.   I fail the to see the logic in how those post could be construed as either irrelevant, or premature. Those factors and concepts are central to the phenomenon science for f sake. jesus

1 hour ago, eekuasepinniW said:

I see.

It doesn't seem you do.   But, that's fine - I tried to explain why "you were not missing out" at the time you made your post; but you seem to be evading that explanation for whatever reason.   

to each his own -

Just now, eekuasepinniW said:

By miss, I mean be on the wrong side of the planet.

The Kp index tells you only what you've missed over the last 3 hours.  It's useless as an indicator of present or future activity.

I know what it means...

And I know how to use it.

If it's only a 5 max, you may not see it around here, anyway, so you're "not missing out" - that was the point. 

2 hours ago, eekuasepinniW said:

lol, just saw it arrived a few hours ago.  Bz is more than -20 so we're missing a great show.  Odds of it staying that way for the next 14 hours are 0.01%.

I wonder if we are, though -

The "auroral oval" on the web-site has a big gap in it over on our side of the hemisphere.  New England to southern Greenland is effectively 0 on that particular product.  Besides, the Kp index is really what we should be going by...and we usually need a minimum of 6 to start seeing it via longer exposure recording devices.

Presently it is only 5 ... So, gaps and fives ...meh.  That may and probably will change as the full onslaught of the CME continues to impinge upon the planetary system ..yadda yadda,  but for now, we aren't missing much if daylight is the only limitation. It's centered on the other side and is of lower storm strength at this time.  We'll see how things cook heading toward evening...

http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/26/africa/kenya-pope-francis-trip-main/index.html

Which side of the pole is the annular ring/oval... ? 

Last thursday was the 156th anniversary of the Carrington event.  Just sayin'

One thing that's always stood out in my memory as interesting about that '92 storm was all the consternation before hand regarding p-type and where....  Yet, when all was set and done, not only did snow win out in most places (given time and dynamics depending) but the temp was into the upper teens in a lot of those some areas of interior eastern zones.  

That's not just a p-type and subsequent snow amount bust... that's busting with some serious panache!   17 F ??!!  hello -

That was a very nice little clipper/redeveloper. That gave a pretty nice area of 6-8" of snow, even some 9" lollis. I love those types of systems...you can sort of see them coming a couple days out and as it gets closer, the models keep increasing qpf as they try and blow it up as it exits stage right.

It had a nice negative tilt to it showing up in the OV... I like to look for that for NJ model lows.