Typhoon Tip

Interesting little short term battle between the this new 18z GFS vs everything else for SNE for tomorrow.  

GFS is gray but dry...probably a little milder by virtue of being so.  Perhaps a little drizzle on the immediate shore points.  Maybe some breaks in ceiling out CT and western MA.

everything else squares the day into the dumpster with steady light rain shut in weather. 

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

76F.

Just keep on torching.

It's become a phenotype of Mays to have BTV smoke NYC and BOS' batting average for warmth  lol

Although next weeks looks like a I-95 corridor warm special from D.C. to PWM Wed/Thur -

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It will be better here than Dendyland. Won’t be sunny , but breaks and no rain here vs washout and cold up there. 

It may not rain 'up here' though, ... much.   I mean drizzle passing here and there but primarily dry.  There's no real means to provide lift, and most likely where the models have the stationary very light QPF blob parked over eastern zones that's just the land/sea convergence over sensitive in the runs. 

It may also start to sag south during the afternoon.  Sort of like what happened yesterday.   It'll be a cooler air mass everywhere though.  It's a matter of how much.

26 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

How do you think tomorrow ends up?  Poopie? 

Yeah unfortunately ...tomorrow probably is 15 below today ( tick or two ). 

It's probably a day where Danbury CT is bathing in a utopia while Beverley MA is having second thoughts of ever having placed a town charter in that location. 

All seriousness ... ( and tedium ), it's a nice out there today.

70 here.  I'm noticing that the CU trajectory and the llw wind is actually more NE were I am here in N . Middlesex in east central Mass.  That's technically not a marine flow here.  With sat presentation showing only micro fluffies getting in the way of the sun, we're probably going to be just fine this mid day.  Maybe the s-breeze mechanics overwhelm late in the day. 

I also noticed the 12z NAM is a little better for Sunday. It's probably going to be cooler coast, warmer deep interior type thing.  Could see that being 63 here and 53 at Logan.  ...75 in ALB.   With sun around.  That's a better scenario than prior run.

Fixed

It's almost like the GFS' physics cause these analogous 'Jovian' like fixed spots.  Vortex modes, and the rest of the atmosphere just starts moving around them.

We happen to be stuck with one SE of L.I. ...

Not saying its even wrong, necessarily.  There's currently a festering llv gunk low there this morning, helping to send <700mb slab back west into the region.  It seems to be all but entirely uncoupled to the mid and upper air synoptics.  Something about the llv mass field circulation medium is forcing that    interesting

42 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Wouldn't surprise me one bit. Here's another one for some laughs

That's a bit different circumstance, though. The Euro I was using to commiserate was D8.5

This above is typical of the GFS at that range. ... just humoring a 372 hour chart for a moment... 

It seems like a transfixed result of the model, where out around further ranges it (perhaps) loses all other driving forcing ... allowing the underlying Labrodorian cold climate sink as an actual atmospheric footprint. I mean really, just imagine for a moment we remove the land from the map, that's indistinguishable from a the Labrador current's cold SST termination waters. Which by the way, that depiction is colder than the current, too.  It would have a cold offset regardless of its own rancid low.

( That latter fact sometimes makes me wonder if it is exposing some of the modeling strategy at NCEP where they may in fact be initializing grids based on climate.  The Lab current has been notably getting warmer in the last 10 years in particular ...etc. )

Not just with that aspect.  I've noticed the GFS is the wrong model - always - to ever detect heat at extended leads. It's like they templated the model to hide CC  LOL    ( little sarcasm there..)

Nothing like a deep coastal nor'easter while the rest of the planet undoubtedly puts up another hottest month ever -

33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Wow, Houston got fucked. And now the Nam tries to fuck the weekend.

Frankly it looks like all models were festering that low level grunge low E of NJ, while S of modest +PP layout over NS - hold just enough differential static for 2 days it sends pulses of low level Labradorian ass vomit all weekend long. I'm like ... really -

They weren't ever ideal for the weekend in prior runs, but they're coalescing around that idea now doesn't seem like physics. LOL.  And this is infuriating looking ... because it's hard to find any kind of mid and upper support for that "anchor" low.  And it's not even deep. It's like 1009 mb ... barely lower than standard sea-level, yet it keeps us in the 50s ...

I gotta say though, we were supposed to be locked in the 50s in the 2-meter progs from the Euro, yesterday, yet we had a gorgeous sunny mid to late afternoon into early evening and temps recovered to 70 for a high.  It's probably grasping for hope to say so but it could be a prelude to these models over doing it.  

It's really sensitive around here.... the ocean being 44 F while the 850s over land support 72 makes for some whiplash error potential.  All depends which 10 minutes of W or E wind is in place.

34 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

You installers should consider mini splits.  I had window and wall mount ACs in my older home which is steam heat, no ducting.  3 yrs ago I installed 1 mini split with 2 heads and I will never look back at windows again.  How many heads you need is going to vary house to house of course.  I had mine installed professionally (huge BTU unit), but you can buy DIY kits and it doesn't seem too hard for a middle of the roader handyman.  I could have done a small single head.   I spend about 20% less for cooling season, but the house is way more comfortable.  Those things dehumidify especially well.  They also heat - shoulder season it's cheaper than oil for sure. 

I also recommend an electric heat pump water heater if you need to replace an electric one and you don't have gas.  Keeps my basement cool and dry all year, and cheap hot water to boot!

I'm getting an estimate at the end of the month.

It's not just about the installation.  That too, but mostly it's about a fraction of the per annum energy cost to heat and cool the edifice of the home. 

Plus the sound controls.  Jesus. Install A.C.s that don't sound like an emissions control test at an aeronautical proving ground cost a lot, plus are less efficient to even run.   In the winter, my house has electric base board heaters.  redic

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS says install next week.

low/non-zero probability for 89.5 type heat wave

Sky's lightened some here...   looks like dim sun is cleaving through the easterly anomaly across southern NH just to my N.

Probably that opens up as the initiation of this thing breaking down.  It'll take the day down near the Pike and S.. but maybe some improvements along Rt 2 and N during the afternoon

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm trying to remember back a few days ago, but the GFS may have been onto the idea, just not as aggressive as the NAM. IIRC, the NAM was the more aggressive with the development of llvl circulations and were further north with them. The GFS was a bit weaker and south (which I think was similar to the Euro). 

You have to wonder if even 15-20 years ago would an event have performed as such, with the atmosphere holding so much more moisture now and all...these type of setups may be bound to produce more rain. We're looking at PWAT anomalies which are like +1.5SD right now. 

Oh no way.  I grew up meteorologically in the 1990s, when the models were amazing compared to the 1980s...

By present era standards?  the 1990s are neolithic. 

We were taught in advancing dynamics ....back when the dinosaurs roamed ... that there is a 'predictive horizon' to this modeling tech. It's basically just where the statistical results fall below significance to the purpose. It was, at the time... still beyond the technology of the 1990s, which really couldn't see very well enough to matter beyond 5 or 6 days ( although there were rare times when extraordinary events would show up at D10 and stick ).  By today's standards, that horizon has been pushed out D8 or 9 ('m not sure what these horizon values are in use-case; I'm just using these numbers as examples).   These D8 .. 9 are somewhat more reliability when combining huge advancements of computing speeds, increased input data density, with other key metrics - to mention also experience.  You can increase the odds of success in that range by some 20 or 30%  - where in 1995 D7 had 5% ... now has a 25% ..etc

There is however a kind of 'absolute predictive horizon,' a temporal boundary whence the inevitable collection of random permutations aggregates too much reciprocating influence, and the system's coherency gets irrecoverably effected.   It's an unintended consequence of all complex systems in nature - systems are ultimately not allowed by nature to remain in stasis. There is always drift - just a matter of how much so, and when...

I mean, where do we think cancer comes from ?  You know, it's an arresting momentum to be informed by ones doctor, 'Did you know that all human males WILL end up with prostate cancer, period.  It's just a matter of whether they out live the inevitability.' 

This is really true for all cancers - more generic to say ... true for all complex systems to flounder. In the context of cancer, genetic mutation from billions of RNA sequencing and re-combinatory mechanics.  It's a matter of time.  Chaos as a product of time and opportunity cannot be avoided. 

In weather modeling, it's two process of spontaneous emergence: the models have to deal with their own, yet the atmosphere they model is also emergent. Those emergence' are mutually exclusive. That widens the gap further. 

Ultimately it doesn't matter how dense the input grid and the speed that is available in order to crunch all that data - emergence of randomness in time is a factor that will always corrupt an outlook.  We're probably still not quite there even in 2024.  But we are more than a hair better than we were in 1994.

We ultimately can't sample every quantum state of every quantum point, simultaneously, with exacting precision - that is intrinsically impossible, as Heisenberg ..et al showed us both mathematically, and empirically that is demonstrated to be the case.  You know, the more precise the measurement, you start gaining uncertainty - it's not altogether very intuitive for most.  But really, all of nature and reality itself is a result of probabilities.

Imagine where we'll be when AI ( and there's a new coining expression called Super AI - think next gen(s) ) is sistered to practicum quantum computing cores?   I think the absolute horizon is "probably" found there.

16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Agreed, that's why I wasn't so high on this a few days ago. It was difficult to find overwhelming support with the NAM sort of alone. I suppose you could throw the long-range HRRR in there but I don't really count that since there aren't many products available on the HRRR to provide enough insight. 

It kinda 'suggests' that the GFS, with its apparent hypersensitivity in creating/emerging all these gnats and rogue perforations that undermine ridging ... yeah, it's probably too sensitive, but the physics  'sensing' this sort of oddities - this is one of those perforations. 

It's not completely useless in that sense.

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I needed today. Allergies were killing me. 

yeah I've getting some some of that too.  Open a window, breeze rolls in, cough cough - the response is that quick.

Just now, CoastalWx said:

This is a perfect rain here. Not enough to wash away the stuff I put down, but a decent drink and washes pollen away. 

 

Looks like a stein pattern after today.

Yeah... it's probably more fortunate for a lot of the children than the children are grown up enough to understand, that it actually rains after a stretch of fair weather and lower DPs.  haha

this system is actually rather unusual. 

there's almost no support above low levels for it's mechanical existence.  the strongest winds are associated with the 850mb parked just S of LI, with an easterly anomaly tube running straight over S zones... meanwhile, the velocities get progressively weaker as you go to the 700 then 500 ...etc.  In fact, 5 to 10 kts at 500 mb.

It's odd that this thing is so basement loaded like that, while still being a cold core system associated with the westerlies.  Where's the mid and upper level divergence/q-g forcing..? etc..

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

1.81” . What a disaster 

Rain is not a bad thing after 2 consecutive days of AN and low DPs

49 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Let’s get some 80s next week 

you can sense the models are trying desperately to f it all up though.  they'll probably fail ... but they have 850 mb temperatures capable of 80 from really Saturday through next Friday, but limit highs to the mid 70s on a lot of those days.  From what I can tell, it's all cloud production/RH at 700 thru 300 mb being perfectly wrongly timed.  Sunday, the Euro and Icon have all of a scant 1 to 2mb of +discontinuity between GOM and NYC and use it to keep it 62 F clear to Albany. 

It's probably the earliest hints of the new summer steam bath, capped high Ts, but super elevated low, black mold paradigm we've been getting as a repeating theme in recent summers.   just waiting for the canonical western heat bulge of summer to cause a permanent nadir/theta-e cess pool over the east -

9 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I find myself looking at it as the warm season and cold season.  We are now solidly in the warm season.

Summer or spring is a semantics argument.  It’s moving away from looking for ways to heat the living space, to windows open or A/C.

Cold or warm season… it’s a gradual transition but feels like it’s been made.  Natural snow is melting off the highest elevations to patchy cover in the spruce groves, and the valley dew points are seeing more elevated lengths of time.  Evenings are mild at times.  And the crisp frosts are becoming rare even up here in the NNE radiational spots.  Flipped to warm season.

Evening dews are elevated.  People notice/feel it.

 

 

Right right ... now all we have to do is actually get it to be warm - or at least keep things that way long enough to not be gipped

13 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Looks pretty warm next week. Not install warm but umbrella over the splitter warm. Takes me a while to convert to summer mode. I'll miss the '50s.

18z GFS… if we’re going by the 500 mb geopotential height cinema alone that looks like a very warm pattern but as usual the model smatters all kinds gunk that keeps the temperatures muted and the hydrostatic hgts from expanding. Some of that is undoubtedly error, but how much- even half of that gets cleaned up we’re gonna sore into the 80s

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

GFS has it quite wet here tonight. That zone is bouncing around a bit on guidance.

That ‘ bouncing around ‘ kinda makes me wonder if it even happens. 

Sometimes the model’s trigger when there’s potential, but the triggers themselves are erroneous. A clue when that is going on is that spraying solutions all over the board with poor continuity  

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The regime shift occurred in 2007 to a much thinner sea ice state and was not forecast ahead of time. The ice free extent forecast by 2013 was an outlier that most agencies like the NSIDC never bought into. Remember there was no alarm in the early 2000s before the major shift in 2007. Complacency turned out to be the greater risk as the thickness and age of the ice has not recovered to pre-2007 levels. 
 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05686-x

Manifestations of climate change are often shown as gradual changes in physical or biogeochemical properties¹. Components of the climate system, however, can show stepwise shifts from one regime to another, as a nonlinear response of the system to a changing forcing². Here we show that the Arctic sea ice regime shifted in 2007 from thicker and deformed to thinner and more uniform ice cover. Continuous sea ice monitoring in the Fram Strait over the last three decades revealed the shift. After the shift, the fraction of thick and deformed ice dropped by half and has not recovered to date. The timing of the shift was preceded by a two-step reduction in residence time of sea ice in the Arctic Basin, initiated first in 2005 and followed by 2007. We demonstrate that a simple model describing the stochastic process of dynamic sea ice thickening explains the observed ice thickness changes as a result of the reduced residence time. Our study highlights the long-lasting impact of climate change on the Arctic sea ice through reduced residence time and its connection to the coupled ocean–sea ice processes in the adjacent marginal seas and shelves of the Arctic Ocean.

Our analysis demonstrates the long-lasting impact of climate change on Arctic sea ice through reduced residence time, suggesting an irreversible response of Arctic sea ice thickness connected to an increase of ocean heat content in areas of ice formation. The large reduction of summer ice extent in the Alaskan and Siberian sectors in 2005 and 2007 triggered intensive ice–albedo feedback^42,45 and initiated the perennial increase of ocean heat content in these areas⁴⁴. This resulted in the stepwise reduction of residence time of sea ice in the Siberian sector of the Arctic, and hence a nonlinear response of the system.

Yeah... "alarmist" seems to be becoming a term by 'people of a certain perspective' that allows them to automatically assess dismissibility.

There are certainly times when 'cry-wolf' tactics are counter to protection and incomparable.  CC as an agent of harm, is not one of those.

If even one failed study out of the ginormous (and growing ) compendium of empirically based, objective science, occurs, the example is cited with jackhammer repetition as  like -

The only thing it does is expose a bias to not agree with the science without any willingness to to be objective about it. 

This is good...   We appear to be slated to receiving an inch or so of beneficial rains - whether the models are doing so or not.   After a couple of warm days with relatively lower DPs, it's value add.   Mid week, too ... when it is by and large less important to salvage outdoor time. 

Question is, do we end up more optimistic for the weekend?