Typhoon Tip

This Euro run is more than SoP with warm/DPs on Saturday, just sayn'   This is a diffused if not coherent warm frontal penetration to Brian latitudes of CNE.  

may actually get the lows for the day just before midnight tonight for eastern zones

Looks like we're bootlegged on high T's for today.  Lot of midnight caress goin' on

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

So the BOS thing is weird. It seems like there’s a 4hr lag right now with the time stamp for the hourly METAR at :54 past the hour. IOW, the ob coming up soon for  5:54am (954z) will be the temperature that it should have been for 554z.

That’s why the :54 obs seemed to spike high last night. I have a hunch that they will spike low this morning unless they fix the timestamp issue. lol

At this site/source their removing those discrepancies fwiw -

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KBOS&hours=72

14 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I'd have to look at the numbers, but it does feel like when we push 100F in late June it tends to return at some point in the summer. Maybe not 100s, but at least U90s.

No point looking that up it’s true…

As one that hobbies heat waves I can tell you that’s true for this region…

But it doesn’t appear to be causally linked, either - not that anyone’s suggesting so; just thought I’d add that.  

Statistically we don’t breech 100 often enough. That is the proxy in why less likely to do that twice in a single year.

Based on the prior generations of climate, that is; it’s an important distinction to make. I don’t know in this present era if that is still as lesser likely.

If one’s a gambler putting money down on having it occur more than once in a season, getting the first in the books in June is probably better odds than having the first happen in early August… obviously

16 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Hopefully the Euro wins.

It's 2-meters keep nicking off degrees every run though - it may be that a collapsed model solution is nearing. 

It's an odd looking surface synopsis for 18z in these Euro runs, too.   That much damming just looming from the NE, yet no BD coming down, is atypical climo to say the least.

I don't trust it, but it would be interesting to see that.    

GFS-like solutions are climate friendlier.  On the flip side, the Euro is typically not that grossly inaccurate at < 4.5 days, whereas the GFS has made more gaffs in that range. 

hard to say or sell either way

Plus, the sensor's offline at the moment so ... not likely unrelated

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Must be some swirlies in there. Back to 81F

yeah ha   just typed a similar explanation

I bet that's low level folding

There's NW wind moving into Boston and it's "tipping" the air mass over the really shallow E component and it may be mixing irregularly back down

huh...  Logan can't be 95 with that wind    wtf

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

90 to 82 in 10 mins at BOS

I'm wondering if that's not the end tho.  May be, but there's a lot of wind flags pointing SE ... I could see them flipping off and on over the afternoon ...

heh, like 90 - 80 - 90 -80

93/71

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

90.7

just think ... exactly 6 mo from right now that'll be 50.7

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro is very warm this weekend pike south 

Seems to be alone ... Overall, it's trying to be less cool.  It's not as cool with the backside frontal environment tomorrow.  Ex, 70s vs 60s.   But also, Saturday the Euro it attempts to roll-back the front as a warm intrusion back to about Rt 2 actually...  Meanwhile the GFS and NAM are suppressed, in cold murky back-packing Labradorian sludge air to S of HFD

24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

So so many big time heat waves end with a bang its unusual when they dont.

Examples? 

It's romantic to think of big heat ending with an exit big bang ... but, she seldom shows up. 

The reason for that is because as is typically the case, the front that demarcates the surface end of the heat wave, parallels the flow - typically still having heat wave CIN layer cap.  This mollifies instability while also doesn't provide triggers.  The result is that it just sort of goes away.  

It's progress in displacing the heat is in lockstep with the speed of the height decay aloft.  As the ridge recedes, the front is repositioning accordingly.  

You can see that happening here.  WSW-ENE oriented front side-winding slowly south, as the ridge is deflating - booorinnng

We just find our selves in a different world tomorrow with severe drizzle to show for the giant change.

It was 90 by 9 at Logan fwiw-

Getting a bit nervous about that 4th of July weekend... 

The telecon spread is as of last night's layout undeniably signaling a cold piece of shitness look.  Below is the spatial/physically depicted synoptic version of those numerics.  

It really is fuckin' remarkable how you can set your watch to this occurring during these warm seasons holidays.  And there's only 3 of them so it's a clever achievement of probability that 3 in 90 days are so well correlated to cold piece of shitness

87 at 8 am ... one degree less than where we were yesterday at this time.  

Same sky

Same wind

Presently, WPC analyzes a quasi stationary surface front extending W-E across NNY and NNE.   This feature will actively move S as a N-door front this evening, but not before today loads mid 90s, with lingering DPs in the region S of it.  Tonight it'll perform the canonical behavior of turning SW and accelerating through NYC and beyond.  This impressive heatwave will be history...

Tomorrow will be as though we stepped off a flight in a far away colder region of the planet.  Regionally, likely to experience a 24-hour correction by as much as 20 to 25 degrees.     

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Earliest 101° on record by over a week. 

Looks like Logan snuck in a 102 

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Here’s a RadarScope question for you…

Why do all the RadarScope temperature observations seem way off?  Any idea?  They are much higher than ambient temp but yet lower than the HI.

It has LEB at 107F, CON 104F, etc.  But the HI are higher than that, and max temps lower?

Maybe it's a heat burst phenomenon from the outflow off those severe summit cells chinooking downslope ...

hmm hmm     hahaha

I shoulda known - it's the ping temp.  duh

Anyway, 102 here town. 

3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Because the METARs only report a 6 hour max every 6 hours and the 1-min obs are rounded to the nearest degree C so unless they actually dial in manually we don't know for sure. 

If they provided 1-minute data that wasn't rounded we'd know sooner. 

yeah, I had forgotten all this...right. 

6 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

NWS told us it was 101 when they dialed in shortly before 3. 

Why would their data dissemination not match what they are saying verbally - it's likely legit, sure, but it's still interesting.