Typhoon Tip

2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

85 in Methuen, the BD has gone the way of the December Winter Train

Ha... good metric for us here ...

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

90 here…And we’re not done yet. 

It's just unworldly out there.

We have no wind either.  It's dead calm 91 F here.  In fact, the DPs up to 53 ... it's a even getting borderline from the combination thing... 

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Nope, but I’m beyond impressed that BOS is holding low 80s despite E 16mph obs on 4/14. 

Yeah right.  can't be underscored enough.

I'm stunned we did this two days back to back in the general sense dude.  I mean f if it's not 90 again. 

We don't have any worldly chance at doing this tomorrow, else we'd have the truly rare chance at official heat ... in mid April

There is a front analyzed by WPC but it's not clear it's actually "back dooring" at the moment, and ... not only that, it is no where near Boston.

Boston's onshore flip isn't related to BD for the time being.  

That all said, the NAM could also be over doing matter so... so there's that too.  My experience having suffered the vagaries of April wind over multiple decades, chances are ... we are not sustaining 88 F for very long. It is in fact extraordinary that we are getting two days in a row of this, actually.

Synoptic warm bursting is an increasing spring- period phenomenon ( Feb-Apr ), but most of them spike a single day embedded along a week of above normal..etc.  This is like "thick" warmth ...in terms of integrate atmosphere energy, this may be up there with 1976.

40 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

the backdoor doesn't look that impressive this afternoon. maybe shave off 8-10 degrees here by mid afternoon, but still relatively warm. cooler by evening but who cares at that point

Yeah.. again, in the stricter principle, there really isn't much of a BD? 

What we do have is an organizing ( potentially...) very intense sea-breeze/mass restoration moving west. 

Back door phenomenon happens because there is an NVA ( usually aft of a S/W diving out of Quebec toward the lower Maritime region), and that NVA supplies downward vertical motion, ...which raises surface pressure NE of the region.  Then adding topographic features with a mountain range west, and flat "void" east, that air mass has a physical restoration tendency to always try and fill said empty space ... where we all happen to reside.  So, the air mass starts rollin' SW ...usually "under" the synoptic look, too - which makes them particularly infuriating.  Add to that, said rising surface pressure NE is taking place over some of the coldest water on the planet relative to latitude, further conditioning the air mass colder and colder and viola - the old 88 to 42 whiplash... 

But we don't really see all those mechanics activelly having take(taken) place... so we are in wait of a precarious scenario.

Presently .. we are flopping around in the interior at all of 4 to 6 kt zephyrs, because there really isn't much gradient going the other way.  Then adding we have intense interior heating ... there's likely to be a west motion getting going, whether there is a synoptically driven BD air mass involved or not..

The NAM sort of uses that total manifold of factors to create elevating surface pressure from the east/cold oceanic boundary layer, along. And once in place.. the weakish gradient can't remove it. 

It's an unusual behavior to perhaps conclude what is also a very unusually warm synoptic circumstance.

10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The PDO state and SST configuration in the Pacific SCREAMS a hot summer in the East. 

Quick op ed on this ...

... the present heat departure doesn't mean the statistical connection to the summer - I suspect - that some are tempted to assign.   That said, to me the modeling behavior of consummately correcting the D10 to D15 range warmer, in both the non and hydro-materialized thickness, is more telling/or an indicator that supports the warm summer. 

The reason I suspect so is because the physical make up of these models proven to be missing a predictable factor that points toward more warmth.  It's difficult to believe that is CC driven - CC doesn't mechanize models. But, their is something about the heat source and sink, ...particularly now that we are adding the solar flashing over the hemisphere, that hearkens/ if perhaps 'sets the table' for the warm outlook. 

00z NAM is a Labrador ass blow by mid day tomorrow… sped up 

did anyone else notice/comment on that tropical cyclone that land fell and sawed its way over Mississippi ?

heh... It's like NHC was like fuggit - decided it wasn't worth it to mention

So yeah.... exceeding MOS was probably a no brainer

Looks like we'll launch tomorrow morning and get pretty toasty but there's likely to be a combo s-breeze boundary/amorphous BD mash up moving W during mid day. 

So places like Framingham out along Rt 9 'ill be flirten with 80 or even 84, then come back out of the store and it's 63 of 'what the f'ness at mid afternoon pm  ... Logan is done by noon I'd guess.

The problem with tomorrow isn't so much a BD. There is a tendency to back the flow from the S to the SE due to pressure falls approaching L.I.  It's sort of "instantiating" a BD affect -

So if you are looking NE Maine for the tall tale signs there aren't many.   Maybe modest pressure rises there.  Mostly it's the pressure falls from the south tho.

Notice ALB is back up to 80 Saturday and LGA is hooked under held to 68 or so on the 18z NAM FOUS...

12 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Love me some real summer weather!

I thought the GGEM was likely ...well, being the GGEM, wrt the 00z operational idea of a renewed warmup next week... but now the 12z GFS trended pretty significantly in that direction.  Fills the weekend cool back/vortex pretty fast heading into Mon/Tue and mid week on...we're not exactly mid 80s but that's a deep layer mild look in this run

'Synoptic warm burst' 2023 ... in the books

What's that now ... 4 out of the last 7 years whence we submerged our senses in +30 by day, and probably +20 night ... 

These have happened going back in history, sure ...these Feb-Apr jolts.  But the +d(frequency) is alarming -

27 minutes ago, dendrite said:

80.1F

F the 70s. We skip right to summer now.

At a minimum the world is bizarre, but perhaps even eerie being apropos for observation out there.  This kind of heat amid such a barren nuclear landscape...  We have bloating in buds among the maples...  a few Norwalks are into flowers, and the red maples are tinged along the glade and grove facades.  Other than that and by and large, the majority of tree species are see-through.

Yet so hot.  It definitely smacks as ... not right.

87 under and open lasing sky

+24 in 2 hrs here.

45 to 69

Next week look partly to mostly cloud with interval showers, with high no higher than 60 the whole way.

How does that statistically correlate to ensuing summers.  Hmm?

23 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Not necessarily, I remember a year maybe 2008ish where we hit 90 in April or May and that was the high temp for the summer.

yeah... It's unclear at best. 

It's more likey not even statistically determined, actually.  I mean, no one in this particular social media return usership has done that analysis, I'm certain.  Not going in the warm direction, because the majority isn't interested in even being alive in the summer.  If they could enter suspended animation, like cryo sleep and be reawakened on November 26th - but if and only if there is a D7 bomb on the EC in a modest El Nino Pacific, they'd sign up. I'm sure the statistics are out there somewhere, but it's unlikely anyone in here has much interest in "weather" warmth in the springs means much to ensuing summer typologies.   

In the fall?  If there's a single packing pellet anywhere in New England, they'll find it and perform a forensic cryo investigation replete with 4th order tensor regressions to figure out the winter  ( that sentence doesn't mean anything but sounds funny)   

Which i have ... lol, and there's not much correlation between October and ensuing winters.  Likewise, I suspect the same is true for April --> summer?  But don't quote me.   Chances are, not much correlation above noise. 

13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

64.5F, breezy, and some cirrus

Overall a really nice day. Just wish the shit streak cirrus would go away or dissipate.

Probably don't care to hear this but ...it's been interesting to watch how the terrain is enhancing or even triggering much of that.   Presidential Range is sending shit streaks over lower Maine and coastal NH...

April's evil intent at it again ... sets you up with a taste just so it can maximize the cruelty of this

5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Dews are 45-52.. 850s are rising from 15c up to 17c by late afternoon so ya that’s impressive enough to yield widespread 85+

K, well... 17C extrapolates to 94 F ...just sayn'  (edit 86 ... but, add the 2-meter slope ? heh... could touch 90)

Again, not all the guidance may be doing that.  That HRRR is what it is.

But the NAM... guys, there's no warm day for eastern Mass on Friday.  Those outlooks all week so far for 85 on that day? oops. Cut those down by 30F if the 12z NAM's raging BD boner is right. 

13 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

72 already.. hrrr has 85-90 tomorrow for many. Probably going to sell that .. but 80s look likely.. 

What are the 850 mb T's off that product .. more importantly, what are the d(T) at that level between 18z and 21z as a specific modulation behavior?

If the d(T) is positive, that means the BL has extended through that level - the impetus being that the adiabats are stretched and you can pretty much take that temp extrapolation and then add the perfunctory 2-meter slope and that's the sfc temperature at max. 

If there is a delta of 0, the BL is not that tall and we can assume an adiabatic extrapolation sigma that is lower than the 850 mb level.

Personally ...with lower DPs and a kinetically charged atmosphere coming on WNW trajectory... the BL is likely to respond to a high solar ( low ceiling RH --> low cloud coverage). That'll raise the BL to be pretty darn tall level tomorrow. I suspect that it does extend through the 850 mb.  Regardless of the models - ha... you know like how sometimes we have to consider the actual Meteorology of the moments huh.  lol.  

So what I am saying is... tomorrow has MOS/machine bust written all over it.  To me ... it is a matter of to what degree/how much.   Remember that warm burst back in 2016 ... 2017? it was in early March. We had 850s to +13 C, which is impressive enough for that early in the year. The forecast was around 80 and that was also eye-popping.   

87  

... FIT/BED ...BDL/ASH ... soared out of control and went above the +13C adiabatic suggestion.  This appears to be a day tomorrow where we can super adiabatically force a higher BL and cook.  I don't have a problem going above expectations - I've seen 91 on March 31 in 1998 from a dry early season transport of continental charged air...  hmm

NAM shuts the party down prior  Friday for NE of HFD. 

One warm burst day only, tomorrow. 

It’s obviously not the most dependable guidance beyond 60 hrs, but it does hearken to the fragility of this pattern. We’re transporting a large anomaly warm air mass using lower tercile deeper layer ridge anomaly … it can more easily modulate.  

Temps are tricky today ... at first glance, it is not likely to rise as aggressively during the day as yesterday, because we are presently being side swiped by a vigorous S/W diving out of Quebec thru the lower Maritime. That is "denting" back the 850s/offsetting the diurnal mixing ... Basically, the temperatures stall ranging in the 60s, to lower 70s - I'm guessing - over SW-SE sections.   Pretty big gradient between SNE and Maine.

But the globals have the 850s warming abruptly after 18z ...so it may also be a late high if we are actively mixing the BL taller under the intensity of the late August sun now that we are loitering the sun in the later afternoons at this time of year. 

Another aspect is the WNW/NW flow being down slope, transporting an atmosphere that is flirting between the colder shot NE of the region, vs the still kinetically primed air near by S-W ...  It's clear CT will be warmer than S NH ... but how much. 

When the low temperature on April 11th is equatable to the climatological high -

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I get what you're saying...but I think you took what I meant to be a bit more complex

I basically just meant nicer/constantly warm times are ahead (whether that be in May or June). 

oh heh.   yeah, i thought it was intended for that other debate. 

Still, regarding that anyway, it could be significant in springs --> ensuing summers.  More so than the other way?   I don't know.

70/37 at 10:45 on any April 11 is pretty slick ... contaminated sun or not -

This is interesting.  My home heating is clicking on and off trying to heat an interior of home that is now colder than the outside by a few ticks. 

It warmed up faster outside this house, than the heater is apparently capable of heating the cold trapped inside?   wtf -

So, turning off the heat and opening some windows. boom