Typhoon Tip

But I am presently intrigued by the notion that ENSO modes could actually be the correction mechanism in the grand scheme…

13 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

This, to me, sounds like further validation of the recharge oscillator model for enso. 

Heh. I didn’t know there was such a model haha
sure - “oscillator model” pretty much exactly sums up what I was after, so why the hell not

I wonder if that kind of oscillator model theory does drive the ENSOs from the outside in

You know ...it sort of exposes the question of whether the long thought/accepted ENSO as a forcing mechanism is really sort of backward in a sense.  It's really like some sort of longer period harmonic in the atmosphere that drives from the outside --> in, and then this generates SST anomalies that than integrate thermocline ...etc..

Interesting conjecture there.  ENSO may then become a positive feedback - or here's a thought...  The ENSO is actually a correction mechanism - oooh.   Like a larger planetary manifold forcing causes "Nina" vs "Nino" conditions, then the ENSO responds by what we empirically measure in the SST and thermoclines, which eventually overwhelms the larger scaled mechanisms that caused ... inevitably leading to the demise of the causality --> the switch.  Which will inexorably leads to an overcompensation in the other direction, and the cycle is sort of periodically resetting between the Nina and Nino states - modulated somehow such that it is irregular in duration. 

"In reality, global AAM* has become exceptionally high in the last 10 days. High AAM is characteristic of El Niño's atmospheric component."

It is...which is why in part I also mentioned this a while ago, that the atmosphere outside the immediate dispersion domain of the ENSO band (fascinatingly) appears to be outpacing ENSO itself...

I wasn't referring to the Angular Momentum stuff but it's another evidence to the same extents

good luck

https://phys.org/news/2023-05-anthropocene-sixth-mass-extinction-event.html

There is a modest chance, albeit above background climate, for an 87-91 type heat wave Monday - Wednesday this next week ...

As an ongoing new CC -related concern:  Any heat signal, however uninspired in guidance, needs to be monitored due to the increased frequency in the Global total climate logs of these so-called, "synergistic heat waves."  They tend not to be forecast particularly well, but are far more likely to manifest within warmer anomalous patterns.

Telecon spread beyond next week returns the pattern of the last 4 to 5 weeks, suggesting next week is a warm interlude before 'reloading.'   However, we should bear in mind that the indexes become less correlative during the boreal summer months - this is particularly true for the PNA. The wave length shortening breaks down the coherency of R-wave distribution ...along with it, 'teleconnection' aspects break down (statistically).

That said, ... the EPO dives to -1.5 SD while the PNA rises to +2 SD by mid June... Not only that, both the AO(NAO subordinate) fields are trying to throw a blocking signal.  I mean it's like what the f* is going on with that spread - we'd be blushing with glut shame if this were Christmas...   

Don't know about under a solstice sun, though -

As a summer enthusiast ... even I'm looking forward to punching this next in a seemingly endless series of cold fronts through, just to scour out this unending Armageddon blue ...

I've just about had enough of the smoke pal sky. Seems instances of this taking over spring and summers is becoming dependable - gee, wonder why ? 

Anyway, nice air quality deformation pressing S out of Canada.  Represents - also - the last ? Been an impressive 5 week pattern persistence, one that has gobbled up all of May.  Noticing that climo sites around SNE are within a tick of neutral - which in CC-dominating tendency for +.+ months, I consider neutral   a relative below normal month.

18 Z GFS buckin for a heat wave Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday 

Man. ... it's impressive to see now 8 cycles of modeling persist with a 400 mile wide fragile conduit of perfect MDW weather after that two -day scare tactic the models leveled at us the days before ...

It's so precarious, yet the continuity is impressive.  Keep waiting for the other shoe to fall.  Actually, the GGEM operational looks more turd like so maybe once and for all that model can score a coup -

heh.  anyway, 78 to 85 for three days with sun?   -it's actually kind of climatologically unfavorable to do that but it is what it is. 

It's alright.  We'll make up for that over the 4th of July

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Guess we should see some nice downpours move across the region tomorrow, though probably weakening with southeast advancement. 

Tomorrow is the PERFECT reason as to why not to use extended range QPF products attempt to seek convective experiences in this continental region. 

Nice De Vinci glow

Yeah.. thinking it's time to set the cut off low idea sail because these operational trends are pretty damning to the previous signal.  It was always inconsistent anyway...so perhaps not a shocker. Also, as I outlined two days ago, drilling a retro grade cut off from Montreal to Ohio was too unusual to be believable.  

53 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

80s and sun all weekend on the GFS

Precarious though ... from this range, anyway.

400 miles N or S it gets iffy so it's a bit of a limited room for error there.  

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Doesn't look fun for the Mid Atlantic folks

I'm privately thinking that whole morass of that is down there, then closing off ... might be over weighted by guidance a bit. 

The surrounding hemisphere is in an index modal change ... rendering the erstwhile semi-persistent +PNA to a more neutral or even modestly negative one.  It's doing this in a matter of mere 2 to 3 days, the speed of which "might" be an issue for the guidance when beyond 4 days away.

That index see-saw tries to raise heights in the east below the 50th parallel, while also changing the circulation structure across Canada - the westerlies lift N rather abruptly over the EC ..which is mechanically inducing the models to want to close off that region down there ...

But we could be looking at a average of 'coarseness' behavior due to being beyond 4 days...     This is how/why the models tend to an amplitude bias in general operations at mid ranges -

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Still needs to be watched. Not sure it’s summery all weekend unless that’s  what you wish for. 

Yeah... it's complex. 

In short, the models are losing the N-stream plunk in crazy retro look ... which fine - that was dubious to begin with. But the southern gunk between the TV and lower Middle Atl region still tries to weakly close off, yet just enough to maybe be a concern approaching from the south without that N-stream nonsense.

It's an improvement but not out of the woods entirely.  It's possible that southern aspect is also overly weighted by the guidance, but ... of the two scenarios, we don't have a problem with the southern one - there's really not much dubious about that particular aspect.  we'll see

33 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

35F for the low. 

48 here...

This particular rendition of annoying asshole unseasonable cold loading appears destined to shallow out in latitude ... Doesn't seem the cold 'thick' is cresting the terrain enough, and with d-slope wind and yadda yadda yadda smoke permitting ... still nears 70 down this way, while it may be mid 50s mid summits+ ?  up that way

somethin' like that.

Just gathering my senses on the day ... Looks like a significant shift toward optimism by all operational guidance for the weekend.   Friday may be dicey ... early Saturday over Maine, but improves unilaterally by that afternoon, and Sunday and Monday look COL/fair under 12+ 850 and dry-ish ceiling hgt RH levels    =  70 to 80+ N-S through the regions. 

night to day ... Not to push my agenda but I did mention this was possible yesterday.  I thought - though - that if we did get this solution to happen, it would take 2 or so days to start manifesting in a grind where the models are clearly deliberately designed to ass bang plans and it is a fight to admit it's nicer. Ha.  This did it on the next 2 cycles.  Anyway, there's likely to be something down south still that may affect matters later next week  - or not... But that idea of severing a 500 mb vortex and then sending it SW from a starting position over Montreal ... to then phase with said gunk in the SE ... ? that was all pretty easily suspect in my mind. 

Not intending to count eggs before they hatch but as is, we're looking at a rare omelette MDW

1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said:

Aurora tonight?  Skies should clear out, at least up here and there is no moon.  Currently a solar storm is going on.  Will it continue tonight?  Spaceweather.com

Too much smoke

Embarrassingly ... what I just described to PF is pretty close to what the JMA does ... Gets a deep vortex closure as close by as Maine, and than rather than retrograding SW through NY State ( also a red flag in the GFS - ) it gives this by Sunday,

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

EPS look worse than the OP next weekend.

Saturday and Sunday.

About all we can hope for is this ... ( and it's a real phenomenon in the Spring in particular when it comes to  guidance error - )

Once in a while post the bowling season and just before the summer spaghetti heights season ... we go through this period where the models over assess trough closures in that D5-8 range.  I've seen this a handful of times over the years, where during modeling pattern see-saw occurrences, they lift heights in the east and sort of don't know what to do with the CU clouds in that region... 

The models do so too fast and the lower heights ivo the mid Atlantic close off - which turns out to be faux conservation of momentum that the models don't need to conserve.  

If this is one of those scenarios ... this will begin to fill/morph [probably ] into a weaker mid leve gyre that drifts west over the TV latitudes, while we end up balming out. 

Kevin is reading this and running to the bank with it - I'm just saying this sort of phenomenon is not unprecedented.  

It's getting late in the year for the sort of cut off the models are proposing, and while they are proposing it ... there does happen to be a bit of a PNA see-saw in the index, going from positive to negative toward the end of the week.  Because of those two considerations... it does remind me of an opportunity for the models to go ahead and exercise that type of error. 

after thoughts... The models are not going to be good at handling that differential when the surrounding westerlies are in rapid process of abandoning that region of the MA...  The trough sweeping SE through Canada is positively tiling - also - at high latitude for that behavior in itself, one that may result from forcing a trough through a region that is developing negative interference.  Particularly in the Euro I could see that being a amplitude bias at 144+ hours. 

So we'll see... it's probably < the 50% probability but it's there.  So hope -

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

Trade winds have always been a red herring. The important effect is in the thermocline, where the tidal forces rule.

9:14 AM · May 17, 2023

 

Necessary but not sufficient without the trades relaxing also.

 

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/why-making-el-niño-forecasts-spring-especially-anxiety-inducing

1. The heat in the subsurface tropical Pacific Ocean is a necessary precursor for El Niño but it is not always sufficient.

Let’s focus on #1 first: the persistence of the surface winds. Dr. Capotondi has published research exploring the relationship of surface winds across the tropical Pacific with ENSO. She used a very detailed satellite-based wind dataset for her analysis and found that the interannual changes in the surface winds are the key ingredient for triggering El Niño (footnote #2). Without persistence of these tropical winds, many El Niño events struggle to achieve lift off and can fizzle. It is this interannual wind variability that determines whether you get a major El Niño (e.g. 1997-98) or an El Niño “bust” (e.g. 2014).

Let’s examine the figures below to visualize this. Starting in March 1997, westerly wind anomalies (warm colors) began to form over the western tropical Pacific Ocean (left panel). In the 1997 case, the interannual variability in the winds (middle panel) was especially strong and long lasting, extending over a year and shifting very gradually eastward with time. A major El Niño event formed and peaked during the 1997-98 winter.

Now let’s look at the same period of months during 2014, which, in the spring, was predicted to be a potentially major El Niño event. Right on cue, similar to 1997, the westerly wind anomalies began early in the calendar year and lasted through April (left panel below). However, for some unknown reason, the westerly winds began dissipating and the interannual wind variability was very weak-to-nonexistent for the rest of 2014 (middle panel below).

 

Yeah, this interpretive description of her work ( Dr Capotondi's) goes a step deeper into the mechanics of the broader principles I discussed above. 

The weakening and areal expansion of the HC is going to definitely have an impact on that "...interannual changes...," in terms of both timing and mass-flux of the surface wind distribution in question.  No question -

25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Well .. yeah, there's that too. There's a definite seasonal/circumstantial sort of 'constraint' to this. 

In autumn, just before the advance of cooling hemispheres reaches the "triggering" latitudes ...yup, those gradients where the Hadley Cell terminates into the westerlies are concomitantly weak.  At that time ...circa late August through hgt of the tropical seasons, the HC arrives to its largest perennial extension ( and getting larger due to CC ). 

Perhaps counter-intuitive, that the spatial increased in that eddy field actually weakens the circulation of the HC ... The region within ends up pock-marked and perforated by more trough meanders and TUTTS, with TC turning right early type behavior.  

Mind us ...all these peregrinations described are in the sense of tendencies ...

El Nino summers obviously do impact TC - or always used to.  This isn't even a deep dive into statistical science to bear that out. A straight up linear comparison between cool and warm ENSO ( perhaps yes considering lags, okay ) would demonstrate a correlation.  But it has been read that El Nino autumns "shut down" TC genesis earlier than other years.  There's also a QBO marker in that discussion that's rather robust. But I wasn't intending to get into TC stuff  haha...

Anyway, with CC modulating the HC into large spatial arrays and then now having to contend with warming mid latitude oceans ( thermocline discussion notwithstanding/ nor wind ss stressing factors) this does present some problems when considering the gradients overall.

I've been arguing this for years.   The simplest principle has to be achieved or none of this conversation happens.  A has to be differentiable to B. That's why the Universe exists ( lol ) much less the shenanigans of Terrain atmosphere.   If A = B  ... nothing happens.  If A >< B ... forces do everything in their power to get A to = B.  This latter aspect is both why the wind blows, and hearts beat.  And ... starts the whole discussion about how the ENSO states integrate into the rest of the planetary system.

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

Today's SOI came in at ~-26. I'm very roughly estimating the next four days to come in at -35, -57 (lowest since 2/6/2010), -50, and -33 followed by a rapid rise. We appear to be looking at ~-12 for May as a whole, a solid indicator for an upcoming Nino of difficult to predict magnitude.

Or worse for prognostic science yet ... with the present state of background climate forcing, even if one were to predict the ensuing SD to within a reasonable margin of error ... there are deeper questions (valid ones) relating to the integration/dispersion mechanics into the mid latitudes.  

This is both theoretically questionable, but also empirically suggested too, spanning recent cool and warm ENSO phases, with increasing frequency of occurrences of partial or more complete decoupled states since circa 1998

On 5/19/2023 at 10:29 AM, bluewave said:

@jconsor showed how the models beyond 10 have been underestimating the strength of the trades east of the Dateline. So the El Niño forecasts from various models won’t be very reliable longer range if this bias continues. Nino 3.4 will continue to lag 1.2 and the WPAC warm pool. The April monthly forecasts for May also overestimated the Nino 1+2 forcing and under estimated the WPAC warm pool forcing.

April Forecast for May vs verification so far

http://seasonal.meteo.fr/content/PS-previ-cartes?language=en

 

 

 

V-p chart immediate above situates the values somewhere around 90 degrees out of sync wrt to the base-line Walker model.  Interesting

Modest anomalies here and there  but didn’t appear to stray too far away from a climo rain event 

Is that the Taylor Swift show?