Typhoon Tip

26 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Going to target Sharon or Salisbury, CT tomorrow. Potentially even Kent or Sherman

Yeah excellent location there for viewing central New Jersey’s anvil heads 

With the remarkable timing of strata densely packing in from the north east late this afternoon with this back door front then, a near stationary thunderstorm south of FIT throwing up an anvil over the top, it’s been daylight equivalent to 9 o’clock here since 630. 

That’s how you rub in a back door bangin’. Jesus

back to 63

BD pressing SW through VT into NE MA....

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

MARGINAL RISK TOMORROW!!!!!!!!

WOOOO WOOOOOO

WOOOOO FOOKING HOOO!!!!!! 
 

LET’S GO!!!

1.9" of snow ... we're doomed

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

You should have seen the response I got when I posted on Craigslist for Personal training sessions to try and get a few more private training hours on top of the studio I work at . Frightening but humorous 

duh - that sort of ad placement is "clearly" code for some kind of Grindr hook up - what'dya 'spect.  lol

wow... what a gunked in atmosphere this slab of low level sludge is this morning.

hi res vis loops shows weird boundaries separate different qualities of rhea, but limited real clearing behind any of them.  It's sloshing shit around.

The sun should start to work pretty aggressively to force a partly cloud hand here over the next two hours as there's no over shadowing mid or upper deck to stop the lasing. You can kind of see that tendency starting.  

My low was 64 - warmest so far this year for DPs too.  I think tomorrow may end up with better CAPE, if one is using modeled values as the input.  With such weak advection terms under this attenuating frontal mess, I bet the DPs end up modestly richer.

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Have to. 6a baby.

Ah.  my respect for you goes back up a notch -

I have limited toleration for anyone that personally elects for a work out that early.

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Feels steamy after the gym. Lol.

You do the gym in the morning ?  you're one of those.    ooph

18z GFS constructs a monster heat pregnant ridge sprawling at continental scales in the D7 to 14 range.

but like I said earlier… About every two cycles, these models vacillate back to these meanders aloft with cool pool instability convection. 
 

I'm on day 2 of 80s...

No complaints here.   8 days of the month were some less then optimal ... some worse. But 4 day's worth were down right summery. If we make 75 to 82 the next several days, that's pretty seasonal.  

It seems more and more so ... folks cannot tolerate seasonality - it has to be drama or there's something wrong.  haha...   

Not much continuity in these operational runs though.  

There's a kind of solace there in the notion that bad continuity means that what reality brings, it probably won't look like the models.  It offers a likeliness that what comes around might be better or different.

They've been spraying closed lows all over the map N of ~ 35 N for days of runs.  Sometimes even ridging and heat... then ...two cycles later no trace.

On 6/11/2023 at 4:06 PM, bdgwx said:

I hear what you saying. I take more of conservative position myself, but I will say that Hansen et al. 2022 indict the scientific community and especially the IPCC of "gradualism" so you've got support from others regarding your position. And we're talking about big names like Hansen, Schuckmann, Loeb, etc. who made this indictment.

The original climate change warnings that only smoldered in the 1980s and 1990s were the result of more primitive tools, those that projected a  linear rise.  The evidences for faster accelerating along the various predicted climate-change-impacts … of the growing oh-my-god-manifold has really just begun recent to the ~ 10 to 15 years.  

Imho, that's causing some lag in the response pattern of behavior. Human civility is (obviously) vast compared to a single individual, thus the adaptation to change rate will be slower.  Groups being faster than the throng... and the throng much faster than the society.  Etc.

Also, you know ... there's always been a kind of necessary "wait and see" aspect with the climate change response - not the same thing as denial, a different sociological/psychological response, though related.

My take on humanity ( and I say 'humanity,' because it is the human response to uncertainty - ) now that I am middle age and have suffered the vicissitudes of this crazy circus for awhile ...is that when presented with a dire warnings of rates of change, those that are not fixed, thus, lack a predictable end game  - there's a kind of scatter plot of reaction types that will happen - invitation to the speculation game.  The journey thus far has fed both the healthy skepticism, AND, denial sides of the aisle.  

But it is also compounded when the science ambit that is reporting the change can only admit that their theoretical work, as far as what it will mean for a future, isn't known to a very good precision. 

For "denialism" it doesn't take a PHD in sociology to see how that motivates suspicion.  For the other, it looks like agenda either way.

I have opined around this social media and elsewhere ... you know what the real problem with Global Climate Change is?  It's that it doesn't have very obvious 'corporeal advocates.'  What I mean by that, it doesn't directly appeal to any of the natural senses. One does not readily see, hear, smell, touch or taste it.  At least spanning the onset decades, it never had. Only until more recently, the phenomenon itself is just beginning to be felt, or in scenery, what is heard or smelled.  Taste?  Ha, that may not happen until we're eating Soylent Green. 

That's changing now.  The sight of yellowing skies, the feel of synergistic heat waves, the smell of conflagration and just knowing its acrid origin is actually many, many thousands of KM away.  To name a few, those are now beginning to appeal to the actual senses - those natural 'USB ports' that connect us with the cosmos and reality, 'downloading' what is actually real. And as biological evolution provided, were always the traditional means (and instinctive means) by which organisms of this world trigger reaction.

By the larger circumstance of proximity and other protections still provided by the ethereal Industrial bubble, not enough of the human space is yet "plugged in".

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Not totally surprised. biggest question tomorrow is instability. Might be better farther south but with weaker dynamics. Leaning towards going to Scranton in the morning

They hedge ...spc does.  They do this. This is one of those situations where they do this bump up as it nears. This has that tactic written all over it. It was general chance, then the marginal knifes up ... tomorrow watch - the marginal will be a little bigger/N mid way it'll have a slight embedded.  

This isn't Plains where a 4th period can be a slam dunk for finger of god super cells The hedge.

That, and this has looked - to me - like an intereting set up for awhile.   There may be sufficient surface heating with DPs running over 60 when push comes to shove, then the mid level height falls start eroding.   Wind direction may be a bit uniform? so may be more of a heavy rain/training CG bombs type of deal...

17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Right, however, now that we have this strong El Niño event developing, coupled with a very healthy +IOD, my thinking is that this may be enough to finally break the IO and Maritime Continent MJO phases. We will have to wait and see

Last week's worth of MJO is collapsing ...  The models likely to have been proven too aggressive.   So if all that is true ... heh, it certainly hasn't begun to help just yet.

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Tomorrow looks like poop across PA ughhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh fook you summer fook you 

SPC expanded the marginal region

I'm curious if we bubble up some better deep layer TCU with that slow moving mid level cool pool eroding from the west over top more humidity and warming surface heating potential. 

Yeah... this week won't be like last week.  

Whether we want to hold back in our choices for description, the straight up synoptic parameters and the overall evolution/cinema of it, don't provide the same result.  In other words, different pattern.  

That thing last week is over.  We'll see where this goes... 

I think approaching the 20th ...more substantive heat is on the table. It'll take some correcting and/or emerging into future guidance.  Fwiw - the D9 Euro went hot over the vastness of the contiguous interior.  

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Wheel of ‘rhea continues for a while

The machine/MEX numbers were better for summer enthusiasts.  But, I know what you mean if looking over the 500 mb cinema. It's easy to roll eyes and give up.  Lol   Then I checked MOS for shits and gigs and huh, KBDL/KFIT/KASH/KBED were all at or above normal through D5 ..6.   

I thought looking at the charts beyond, the models ( ECM, GFS.. not the GGEM) might be finally 'detecting' the Pacific forcing.   The GFS has occasionally signaled detection, but the continuity hasn't been there and it collapse(d) back to the same perforated 500 mb look.  The 00z Euro and GFS' run cycle was the first where the two were in unison trying to raise heights and 850 mb thermal medium post D7.  So we'll see where that emerges. 

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

I entered the long Tip response into an AI bot with the following prompt - "please explain this so a five year old would understand". Here is the translation for everyone who hates jargon and poor writing:

Okay, so imagine there's a big puzzle in front of us that we are trying to put together. We have different pieces of information that fit together like the pieces of a puzzle. But right now, some of those pieces aren't fitting together very well because something is interfering with them.

This interference is caused by something called GLAAM, which makes the air move in a certain way in the atmosphere. Right now, the GLAAM is not doing a very good job and it's making it harder for us to figure out how things are working together.

There are other things going on too, like ocean patterns and wind patterns that can also affect how everything fits together. And all of these things can make it hard for us to predict what's going to happen in the future. It's like trying to solve a really hard puzzle, but some of the pieces don't seem to match up like they should.

There is a class of users that are directly or indirectly engaging in this social media. That is the target of most of my contribution and you’re not in that particular group.

This isn't up to date, and the looping coarseness comes off as a rather cartoony ... but, the CPC is/was indicating a modest anomaly beginning to creep west from the near Peruvian shore heat

3 hours ago, tamarack said:

The major forest replacement function in the boreal forest is fire.  Black spruce is the dominant species and where the current fires are burning there is also a significant component of jack pine.  The latter species bears serotinous cones which remain closed until exposed to heat, either from fire or by being laid on the ground by clearcutting.  Black spruce holds some unopened cones for 10-20 years, also to be opened by heat.  The current fires are larger than usual due to the extensive lightning, but overall that forest type is a fire-driven ecosystem.

That's it then - no other reason.  Lol

Mmm ... one can come up with a multitude of scenarios that are well-within the realm of possible validity for why/how CC affects a given region's natural cycles. Adding more lightning wouldn't be the whole story - it's just a trigger.

Again, not saying you per se... but there's a tendency to conflate triggers with attribution like out there in society/ambit.

Just use the "reasonable imagination"  ... semi-permanent CC-attributed pattern fosters greater growth over an extended period ... then extended dry or cross-seasonal circumstance occurs ... the given region is made to be tinder dry with over-budget fuels.  Then, yeah, lightning occurs, and could be made more prolific because of an attributable anomaly in its own right --> the whole thing produces an unusually large effusion event.

The problem with dismissing this as mere lots of lightning is it misses all the connections in the broader spectrum of contributing factors.  The example above was imagined, but it's contributing players are/is within the scope of possibility. 

Humans have always been stupid ...

... mixing human stupidity with background climate change - wherein there is an abundance of circumstances that would allow fire storms ( suppose this latter is the case for a moment ), I'm not sure that frees up CC as attributable.

Removing human stupidity from that climate-made tinder box environment, does not remove CC from attribution in my mind...  It's there whether the agency of stupidity wonders into that region to celebrate penis and or vagina, or is smarter than that ( and according to the post-modern new scripture, it's possible that the "and" and the "or" can occupy the same space).

Anyway, if climate change makes a tinder box out of an environment, ... I think there is a difference and distinction that needs to be made between what is a "trigger" and what is "attribution"  ...Because the stupid human trigger can't trigger, if the CC attribution part were not in place.

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

They have tstms there all the time. I have to assume it's just been very dry there overall. Perhaps still a lot of early season debris on the ground and dried up. Not sure if green up is mature there yet.

Right...

Bit of a longer op ed ....that's question 1 in this smoke out as needing 'attribution' science - the new frontier of Climatology.

There seems to be an increasing necessity to parse out whether events deemed unusual are climate change -related, vs not part of climate change/normal back-ground noise.  There's a lot of complexity in doing so, more or less depending on the facet in analysis.  I can imagine ... since wild-fires have been a part of geology for 700,000,000 years ... that may be easily dismissed as just being background noise.   But... hehhhh   that evil word 'frequency'

The fact that large effusion -resulting events have been occurring with apparent increased frequency, world over ... Australia, to California, to Canada, to Siberia ... 

Sorry for the maudlin interruption, but if I were say ... writing a Sci-fi about the seven phases of "Gaia's eradication apocalypse", I might just start with series of fire storms that con the vermin into thinking they are just part of the natural order.  

Dark humor there... Anyway, dry weather relationship with thunderstorms has been an affair surviving every Earth epoch, going back since vegetation garnished the surface of the planet, 700,000,000 years 

Variations in the frequency of either reveals how hot that relationship ever got - pun intended:  ...mm, that's what gets a little more complex. 

Since the lowest common denominator is that there will always be that relationship between dry weather thunder, fuels, and subsequent fires, the question is thus deferred to what drives the frequency of both of those factors - obviously ... getting them to canvas the landscape at the same time is the whole camp site ...

Just as an intuitive/speculation, this year set up unusual blocking near 110 W over Canada could be related to that continental folding/spring hyper block tendency that's become more frequently observable in the last 10 years.  Also, it's been a number of years since we observed Canadian wild fires - that tends to argue for lots of fuel stows... 

The problem with these attribute sciences - for me - is how do the "calculations" determine variables that necessarily go into the evaluation?  Are the fuels stow abundance related to climate change?  Then, is or is not the dry ridge pattern after a dry winter, part of climate change?  Then, said dry ridge building toward +3 or +4 SD lower tropospheric thermal over-budget in the immediate weeks leading the triggering thunder event ... is that climate change -related? 

I dunno.  There must be some form of 'geo-physical' mathematics that is used in the evaluation. 

For now, I suspect the larger, orbital perspective of "frequency" and unilateral terrestrial environment inclusion in the event spread, are pretty damningly suspect.

2 hours ago, Supernovice said:

Anyone wondering about the cause:

 

This was the analysis I was looking for last week when I was being sarcastic about deviant Canadian red-necks armed with gas cans.. haha.   But yeah ... seems clad -

10 hours ago, Terpeast said:

I’d wait a few months longer before prescribing a -pdo with +enso. Although that warm tongue east of Japan is persistent, note the trends over the past 4 weeks in the central-east pacific. 

The problem with the PDO relationship with the < 20N "might" be in an interference pattern caused by the impressive -GLAAM.

The atmospheric momentum stuff is clearly ... abusively negative right now ( bit of sarcasm...) Without even seeing the graphs - just look at all these shortened wave lengths with deep perforated nadirs spinning around.  

We are entering a general teleconnection mode featuring -PNA/neutralizing AO with a modestly postive EPO... But the snake in the grass about the -GLAAM is that the R-wave coherency gets distorted.  With it ...the correlations don't realize as well.  That is why we are seeing a -PNA/neutral AO/modestly positive EPO yet no appreciable heat wave ridging ... The GFS has been trying to do so ( the operational version..) about every 3rd of 4th cycle, before failing continuity and collapsing back into these bowling ball lows and severed ridge nodes look.  

The point of that paragraph is to exemplify how an operational forecasting suffers during -GLAAMs.  In the same vein, it's not likely - to me - that a correlation between PDO and ENSO would work too well for the time being...  And a more analytic reason there is because the PDO is susceptible to sea-surface stressing/wind pattern bias, and those can be imparted by these short-wave scale spatial-temporal dimensions.  The broader correlations work better - inherently during +GLAAM, which we definitely do not have that advantage now. 

It may also be related to why the MJO wave is robustly transmitted out of the Marine subcontinent over the next two weeks, without the canonical warm N/A pattern pass/pulsation ( as is presently modeled..).  

Basically, ... we suffer a planetary -scale negative interference pattern.