Typhoon Tip

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This is some thick shit right now.

Seems to be some convection calving going on upstream. Some shear, with quicker mid level flow than the instability axis producing clouds over NE NY/upstate VT, is sending a region SE that appears have been processed a little less choked. 

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah who knows. Also when discussing western US fires, we are dealing with conditions that are foreign to us so it’s hard to visualize.  I remember the documentary detailing the sparks had the grass immediately next to the entrance to the shopping plaza.  Santa Ana winds in CA sustained at 40mph, gusting 60mph through residential areas at like 6% RH and vegetation just looking for a reason to ignite… probably takes a lot less than we think.

People talk about it happening and I can’t comprehend it in their terms… like see sparks or cig butt go sideways in gale winds and 4 seconds later an entire tree is on fire and spreading at 40 mph.

yeah, that makes sense - just a weird situ, like Leary taking an oil lantern to the stable setting after a dry summer, in October, setting it down, and then a cow or horse kicks it over and the next thing you know ...the Great Chicago Fire back in 1871 ( so like, last year - ha).   That sucker destroyed 17 thousand buildings along 70 something miles of street.  Granted, 1871 proooobably had a firebox construction standard - I don't know...

But that does hearken to your point about difficulty visualizing how settings make things more(less) plausible.  Have to think outside the box.

Well in any case... it's not like we didn't know it was coming.

6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I believe the cause in Nova Scotia was human activity like @powderfreak described. The official reporting I've seen from Quebec is that most of the fire starts have been lightning (because there aren't any humans in some of these areas).

Ha ha. I was just thinking that.  Like literally, 'but wait, who the hell's out there'  lol

It's kind of amusing that we suffered days in the shits and it finally "clears" into a sun shut down by smoke - wah wah waaaah

21 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Most often it’s campfires, BBQs in a park where coals are extinguished on a windy day. Cigarette butts out car windows blowing into roadside dry grasses.  One of the largest California fires was witnessed starting by a lowered like Honda Civic (or one of those types) bottoming out while pulling into a Wal-Mart… sparks from the under carriage blown in 40mph winds ignited the grass and forest next to the lot.

Yeah ... I get it how it can happen, but that (bold) seems to be a hard sell.  Slag sparks don't remain at combustion temperatures long enough to carry in the wind.  Unless if fell directly on it perhaps. 

hm. Sometimes "accounting" can get started in equally mysterious origins hahaha.  Have to validate the source I suppose. 

The cigarette and campfire dipshit stuff, no problem -

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Plenty of lightning on the 1st. 

It may be the case ... yup.   Do you have those records for the Nova Scotia region? 

Plus, it's a valid surmise; I just haven't heard any "official" accounting, either. 

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Hoping to chase today 

can't have both... 

... or, it's less likely you will...

You either dim the sun down to where we fail 5-7 F on the high.  Or, you don't and you get the CAPE

37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t know. But I find it interesting that roads are still being plowed out in CA and western Canada is burning. 

strange times ...

 ... hard to parse out whether these are unusual, or it's that whole narrative about how technology just exposes the reality to the naive thing.  So it only "seems" unusual.

It's a digression ... but I'm not sure I buy that anymore. 

11 minutes ago, BrianW said:

I read most of the ones in Nova Scotia were from human activity. Probably the same with the ones now in Quebec.

what I thought ... 

but that's also a broadly defined heading, 'human activity' 

like a deviant shit ball for a skull with a gas can counts under that header too -

32 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Lightning 

yeeeah... thought of that. But I went back and there's fires going off where there wasn't much history of that on satellite.   I mean, tinder dry or not, background settings are not going to just spontaneously combust - so yeah, it has to be something. How about a 22 year old disenfranchised ugly rural Canadian hillbilly boys with gas cans and a manifold of dysfunctionally traumatic upbringing - heh

I almost wonder if this eco terrorism.  Haha.  Unfortunately, we live in an era whence that needs to be considered.  

12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

So this is what metfan sees everyday when he looks up at the sky. 

I have a question ... has anyone heard/read of how these fires up in Canada are set?

I keep waiting to hear news break about that specific and nothing.  

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It seems like we can’t shake this Rockies ridge. But, troughing out west likely argues at some point pieces of heat break off or maybe eventually moves in later in the month?

Next week seems to offer more rain chances.

I'd settle for any ridge in the east to satisfy the trough in the west ...like, at all - jesus.  

Not sure why but the large synoptic frame between the Dateline to west coast of N/A is flipped reverse around D5-7, yet the models maintain trough over the eastern Continent - like there's no forcing down stream?   Not sure there ... so we're getting a PNA mode change toward a warmer signal ( with the EPO and NAO removed from contention) ... to somehow = unbalanced R-wave layout... = no warm up - okay. Seems like the models are less than organically processing to me at times. HAHA

 I'm wondering if/when the other shoe falls we get wholesale correction. 

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Extended says what heat. 

It's all in the indices ... as far as I can tell.   The operational runs and even the ensemble means ( which the indices are based upon, which is odd ) don't seem to reflect the former.

They may given time.  who knows

7 minutes ago, roardog said:

It looks like the MJO is going to be moving strongly through the Maritime Continent phases. Is that unusual for a developing El Niño?

Yeah ... I mean that should be factored.

64 ...    mini spike occurred about 2 hours back when it went from ass packed to just cloudy.  Actually .. there was like two, 2 minute sun splashes for the course to be fair. 

26 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

 

It echoes the 2021 heat bomb ... not coincidentally in my mind. 

I don't believe the two have desperate causality.  The background causing both may be of the same, in other words.  

43 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

looks similar to the CanSIPS. nice to see the forcing centered near the Dateline rather than closer to the SA coast

This MJO appears more coherent as it readies a move into the Phase 3-6 modes.  That may have a bearing on westerly wind contamination in the lower latitudes... Back west of the "MDR" but with the La Nina dead/dying it would seem to green like the propagation into the 7-8-2 thereafter, doing so more successfully than the La Nina "firewall" was allowing it to do over previous months.   That's your westerly wind burst perhaps... I dunno end of June?

It's annoying when the satellite presentation shows a cloud pattern that's become corpuscular looking, yet ... the sun is some how NEVER in between the corpuscles -

Here's a random thought ... if ( and probably when ) the cold dinner apocalypse happens ... these satellites will continue broadcasting what their cameras see of the world below ... to no one, for decades. 

Can you imagine if we escaped this world and became an interstellar species like Star Trek or whatever, and happened across a planet with all these satellites in orbit taking random pictures and loops of clouds and smoke over an empty world?

The National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration announced that the carbon dioxide level measured in May in Hawaii averaged 424 parts per million. That's 3 parts per million more than last year's May average and 51% higher than pre-industrial levels of 280 ppm. It is one of the largest annual May-to-May increases in carbon dioxide levels on record, behind only 2016 and 2019, which had jumps of 3.7 and 3.4 parts per million.

"To me as an atmospheric scientist, that trend is very concerning," said NOAA greenhouse gas monitoring group leader Arlyn Andrews. "Not only is CO₂ continuing to increase despite efforts to start reducing emissions, but it's increasing faster than it was 10 or 20 years ago."

Nothing's going to happen until the wealthy can't eat -

Significant heat signal continues to gain coherency for post ~ 13th ... 

I know this isn't what folks wanna hear around the Holidays but one of the better memories I have spanning the last 10 year's worth of Xmas' was that 2014, when it was 70 F on Xmas day and the fam/friends were enjoying the outdoors. 

I guess if you'e in here satisfying a pure neurotic snow/cold OCD ...such visions do not inspire the precious state, but for those of us that appreciate the fuller spectrum of weather results - it was exotically wonderful out of doors that day.   

'Sides ... not without compassion, the Feb 2015 that set in some 3 or 4 weeks later was just as fantastic. 

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Almost time to start tracking NSIDC area....it's still a bit early right now, but by 6/15, it will really be worth tracking much closer.

I don't see any drastic conditions developing at the moment. Daily area is tracking a bit above the 2010s average, and the forecast looks fairly benign up there for the next week. We'll want to see that change to a more defined dipole setup (high pressure on the North American side with low pressure on the Asian side) if we're going to even entertain the possibility of a new record this year.

Things can change though with relatively little warning as bluewave stated above on how unreliable the arctic forecasts are once past 4-6 days. So we'll monitor the guidance and see if anything interesting happens. Some of the medium range guidance beyond D8 is trying to retrograde a block into Greenland and possibly further northwest which would be a stronger melt setup if that block can make it back into the arctic basin....but we've seen a few false alarms already early in this melt season.

Just adding in brief...

there is a robust MJO signal that is emerging in strength, in model trends ... from all tool sources, and it portends to a wave space that correlates to a +AO. 

Not sure how that factors into the dizzying array of posted material that seems to convey simultaneous points at times ( lol..) but, I thought I'd add that to ( hopefully) confuse matters even more...

j/k. But seriously on the MJO stuff.   The other aspect, the dispersion mechanics at large scales - it isn't very clear to me how the MJO forcing ( or not) integrates into the boreal summer hemisphere. It prooobably does not as well as the cold season for obvious reasons.  That said, the last 3 weeks seemed to align fairly well with the MJO progression over the time span... It sent a blocking signal, we have been plagued by a blocking quasi-omega ridge like feature across the southern Canadian Shield ...and everyone's happy. Seems to be trying to lag into a -NAO response, too - but I wonder if these upstream Pac/dispersion arrivals might abandon that look some.

I've been watching this signal with the phase 2.5 --> 6.5 emerge and it's getting robust at this point. I think or would suggest that the "forcing" from that might not yet be "detected" in the modeling physics just yet; if/when that happens we'd see more of these warm blooms into mid latitudes - there's been an increase in model cycles that depict a June 15th + for an orientation switch as it is...  Which would steepen the gradient wrt the vestigial polarward height nadir, ...speeding up the vortex --> +AO.  So supposition involved there...

Sorry for the lesson ...just explaining the thought circuitry -

Good op for observational science tomorrow ...

Do smoke aerosols have any effect in the condensate micro-physics?    -think SAL dust. With SAL, it creates an over-abundance of condensation nuclei, which too much proficiency cause the moisture to disperse among them and halts the adiabatic process.  Not sure about smoke though ...

There's also a 'scrubbing' question for me.   Like, I wonder if a CB spreads an anvil and moves down stream, does it leave streak where's it's tunneled a gap through the smoke plume.  Actually, it probably moves along with the smoke so likely not...  unless the steering is differentiable/sheer per altitude.