Typhoon Tip

There were a lot of heat aspects, air and sea, world over that were idiosyncratic like that this spring and summer. Worrisome... the notion that they are (thus) also not really fitting a predictive model, or able to be projected because of their emergent properties, should reverberate an uneasiness. I have written of "synergistic heat waves" as an increasing frequency of occurrence ... They are a new distinction in the global warming empirical results "catalogue," but I it's not just heat, per se. The weird inability in Antarctica to regenerate ice at failed climatological amount that's multiples of the erstwhile established -trend, occurring in a single season! To the Labrador marine heat burst ... This stuff down in Florida... And the March heat explosion over China. It's the lack of predictive skill prior to these short duration phenomenon that really should have folks spooked - more so than the scalar itself, as remarkable as the numbers are to talk about.

It does... In fact, the average high for Boston ( sort of a pos site to use but whatever..) on Sep 15 is 74 I am at 76 at the moment. Makes sense because "average" during this acceleration of CC is probably always going to be the 30 years + either decimals or a whole degree(s) when factoring in the logarithm. So what I'm musing here is that it's like 'exactly' mid september preview. heh

81 here ... probably not too far from the average high up here N of Rt 2 in Mass for July 31. FIT is 81, too. DP is in the Chamber range at 55 ... I suspect our "cooler than normal" aspect may be more so in the dew point temperatures than the kinetic side. It's interesting that we are in a cool pattern now and have plummeted to a smug win when we're "normal" haha.

"This is particularly unusual for a summer month. Historically we’ve had a lot more temperature variability in winter months and set new record anomalies in December, January, or February. Seeing this large a record in July is stunning." Yeah he's right. It's always "easier" - for lack of better word - to move an anomaly up in winter, than it is to move an anomaly up in summer. This might be counter intuitive for some, but it's simply an artifact of thermodynamics and heat budgeting, combined. In the winter, when the average high in SNE nadirs around 32 F ... you can find a synoptic way to 72... or even higher. Such as was the case in a few Febs and Mar in the last 10 years. 30 to even 45 or more deg higher than the average in those scenarios. But, an average high of 82 max seasonal average in July is not going find a synoptic means at Boston to put up a 122. Not without the shining two concurrent suns ... so to speak ... A similar reason to why the ballast of NE U.S. warming in this hockey-stick CC curve over recent decades has been observed in the winter-time nocturnal lows.

you actually have CBs rollen over the ridge lines though - "little" more than just oreographic. Probably some vaguely described impulse adding some.

It seems like we are either going to get a February 2015 (albeit rare) or stressed if not no winter at all… We’re not really getting much in between. I mean we do there’s been a couple big storms here in there obviously… As usual, I’m talking about “friend” trend, and it hasn’t been very friendly.

I always just liked observing interesting Meteorological events. Let's be clear, interesting includes the 'dramatic.' I just am not in wait and/or limited to the specter value, entirely. Observing them in California through media or anecdote was always just okay. Physical relevancy between Buffalo and Halifax was preferable. How that has changed over the years is that when I was a younger, I would tend to sullen if the "interesting event" violated the sanctity of the season hosting. I didn't want record breaking warmth in winters ... nor cold in summers. These were the only reasons I would turn off The Weather Channel. I couldn't bear it. Worst yet, where I tended to sullen ... I more demonstratively groused if Walter Drag set us up for one of his patented 1987 cryo dystopian horror-casts, only to awaken to dim sun and flurries in 12 F 35 mph, may-as-well-have-been frontal nudity winds, while walking to a school that never should have been. That stuff really doesn't bother me so much anymore. Although, I have maintained a particular despise for any span of winter whence the cold gets thick, yet there's an interminable absence of any activity. I guess while on the subject ... there are two types of weather that get me dreaming about that 2nd home abroad. That, and the endless days of 39 F still fog/strata/rains in Aprils... In fact, let's go ahead and elect out of that entire month? Everything important that has ever happened in either human or non-human history, it's all particularly loathsome just because "April" was a part of them, say. Man, if we could ever choose anything, avoiding captive audience to the month a Asshole would set us right. You know how Samuel Clemens once famously mused, "...The coldest winter I ever spent was a summer in San Fransisco" ? I can easily imagine somewhere out there, some fist to sky then furiously types their own ideologues about personal climate tragedy of Bay Area summers, much in same vein as I do springs east of the Hudson now. I just don't have quite clever enough turn of phrase at the moment to pen a Twainer about this ... Maybe the very best New England spring I ever experienced was an April on Mars. ... Sorry if I'm being vague about my real feelings in the matter... Either those two scenarios if I were god ... unending numbing winter cold with no activity; April in New England. If I could just learn to zen, to separate my psyche from expectations whence in the midst of either of those prison terms, I will have at last achieved Nirvana as a true appreciator of weather's artistry. Alas, although I have come a long way, I don't think I will ever find peace with either of those scenarios - maybe the cold banality of a stormless winter has the best shot of forgiveness. As to the original point, I no longer am constraining fascination to some sort of seasonal expectation framework - have found it in snow in May, and 80 in February, two scenarios that have actually been increasing in frequency ... right in the same path of history with my having changed my perspective on matters. That's pretty fantastically lucky - or unlucky depending on one's responsible perspective.

It should be an even bigger red flag to any and everyone that the climate is warmer in 2023 than it has been since humanity invented thermometry

It's 80 here now... 79 next door at FIT, over MOS by a couple clicks

Yeeeah, I thought I was being tongue-in-cheek when I said that? Implicitly I was ranting over a few posts at the time, commenting really on the GFS' eagerness to push that idea... I will say though...if we don't stop with this persistence return/base state ridge over the PAC NW, ... the odds of getting siggy heat really will drop earlier than climatology. I mean ...summer's back breaking is obviously just a euphemism - less any means to really quantify what that means .. . My subjective take on that is, the back is broken when probability becomes/ or overwhelmingly would seem, to have fallen out of contention. I would not say we are there by any stretch... but if we keep it up to Aug 15... yeah okay

Yeah, I’ve been wondering that myself…

A lot of this stuff has limited push into the glaciation level. I've been watching these towers off and on all day, and they tend to cap at the alto stratas level ... then fail to penetrate their pileus. Some did glaciate, but most of the mass of the cumulonimbi mass was below below. You need to have the phase transition in the glaciation level with sufficient mass - it's something I've noticed over the years. Denser cumuli form plumes in that level get your thunder. It may yet along this line..

- the WWB model would seem more intuitively entering a negative mode with the +walker circulation - the latter evidenced by the activation of the west Pacific's MDR. I think the American sources have been a bit aggressive with ONI/SOI perturbations anyway. I'm not sure we see one of those 'real' bursts until we're actually in one. It's like fool me once, you know

Looks like the GEFs are a bit less enthusiastic ... at least they were on the 06z means - heh, might help to check the 12 But either way, two aspects that go against that being very meaningful. Sun slips into medium wattage on Aug 10+ Persistence. That's not the first time I've seen that attempt to fill from the east this summer way yonder range, and we just ended up right back here.

First Autumn cold frontal type of the season's been a recurring feature in recent GFS runs for later next week... I find it fascinating and hugely predictable ( both ... but don't get me started !)

I see... the front has tipped SW up here as a weak BD and the storms here are firing along it draped configuration - you can see the boundary on base reflectivity.

The irony is that we're exploding right now as I type up here in "NE Mass"

this cell up here in NW middlesex co is leaning right aloft, leaving the updraft uncontaminated. Really strong updraft over top with crispy edges...

Yeah... but it just wasn't clear given his word choice -

Not sure why Wiz' thinks this scenario is going be such a high end widespread occurrence of tornadoes hurling bowling ball hail like rocks out of a lawn mower ... particularly when it's being attenuated by a morning band of thread killer light rain poison ...

mm yeah, but we've escaped the solar max by then. The atmosphere seemed ironically preprogrammed to make sure the sun was history before hinting that pattern, one that in June or July would give us a chance to experience the kind of heat that has occurred elsewhere in the world. Ha. Anyway, it'd get hot, but that's setting up during that 'what could have been,' post Aug 10 celestial timing (after the solar max). When the hemisphere attempts to cook up heat waves after Aug 10, it's always falling short of what it could be prior to that ~ date. I've seen it be 96 on Sept 7 before ... but the same pattern on July 1 would be 106... So I guess I'm being idealistic wrt timing.

Hmm. The sun on the skin' is a different kind of therm than ambient kinetic air temperature, though - including the ability to radiate heat away from the skin that is involved in the complex equations of Heat Index. In other words, there may not be a direct way to "combine" sun into the same HI manifold of metrics. Maybe indirectly? sure ...like, infrared adds converted energy, so, that increase in turn increases what needs to radiate away. Then, we have utility over that energy budget and can due the deltas. But alone, sun "heat" on the skin is short wave/infrared radiation. What we feel when we feel hot air is after it has been converted to kinetic temperature (by conduction physics with black body objects..etc). Check this, but I'm pretty sure we feel hot air differently. That's a heat source sink relationship. Hot doesn't bleed off to hot as quickly as it does to cold. So that is detected through biological nerves somehow interacting with conduction with the surrounding air. Basically ...air that is already hot is limiting the heat escaping from our person. There may be some 2ndary infrared responses, if say the gas ( air ) gets so hot that it starts radiating in the infrared at a high enough registry. Anyway, infrared is a measure of electromagnet frequency, which humans can sense within a certain bandwidths... like, infrared, through the visible range of the spectrum. However, it's a different energy state; I'm not sure it can be included into the same (ambient kinetic temperature + saturation) gaining up on the ability of the human body to radiate its own heat away...with out first may converting it to post-conduction heat that is gain, and then adding it.

Brian said T and DP are measured in the sun - not sure he was commenting on the HI derivatives?

what's interesting about that image is that PWM-DCA is probably already 95(mid aug)-100(mid jul), prior to that Venetian plume's arrival from the GL

My present extraordinary boredom led me to display this extraordinary example of Sonoran/SW heat release event on the GFS's farthest extended range ... despite the extraordinary unlikeliness of it happening.