Typhoon Tip

I'm hoping this happens ooa Feb 20 ... because we will by then be soaking in post solar minimum heating, climate momentum..., during a pre-CC holocaust either no one believes is real ( or simply can't get their heads around) ...but are either way unknowing racing toward, after the last 8 years have featured half of them with an episode of 70 to 80 F that unbelievably early, and ... short version? we 80 in Feb again. Having it happen during a presupposed El Nino February? that is also an ancillary tastiness. LOL

The idea as I said it, is that the present 850 mb layouts from those same means, for the 29th, is warm - but might "correct" in future guidance. It was an implicit suggestion relating to model behavior/biases at this range... But yes ... in a 101 synoptic sense of it, a western N/A ridge is a cooler flow over the eastern N/A region. But here's thing ... this kind of gets into other facets but, the warmth seems to dominate very quickly when the cold sourcing pulls out - that's a change over earlier generation. Hint hint. heh When the spigot turns off in the form of the N/stream going flat across higher latitudes, there seems to be an "acceleration" where cold air moderates faster than it used to years and years ago. Like I said, it gets into another discussion... but reiterating, ' it seems mid latitudes have a tougher time being winter, in winter, when there isn't a direct feed of arctic air as a static delivery .' To exaggerate for point, it's either 15 to 20 F, or 45 ... The system we had that gave the 6 to 15" regionally a couple weeks ago - that's getting increasingly rarer. 31 F unperturbed snow storms. Anyway, the current projected +PNA is occurring without an antecedent cold source. Perhaps owing to the above idea, it's like a favorable flow structure that is warmer than climo suggests it should be.

Scanning the ensemble source/means over night, there's still a signal for the end of the month that is on the robuster side of the climate. The time range still beyond 200 hours. The 28th system appears to be fading? No qualms from me. The index method likes that one less ( but not zero ) than leaning toward the 30th. What is interesting, it is as though both the EPS and GEFs are sans the 28th and 30th in lieu of "merging" or emerging at all, on to the 29th mid way between. That's kind of cool ... for determinstic nerds lol. These are 18z on the 29th: If this continues to emerge ...there'll be problems with cold air availability though, too. I'm willing to lean that some of the 850 mb positive anomalies normalize ( but not all), as the larger synoptic signal begins to back the deep layer flow NW over Canada -

January thaw time ?

… But, theses things can be anomalous onto themselves as well; they don’t have to behave exactly the way the textbook says so. Just sayn’

Look at the ridge near 200 hours plus out there over the Rockies. It’s huge and suddenly growing in that time range and that is after the storm on the 27/28th is over and gone. That doesn’t make any sense in the canonical relay of the mass fields. The ridge starts to go on the heels of the storm and they are temporally coupled - it looks to me like the 28th system should be attenuating and that bundle of mechanics diving through the lakes you see at 222 hrs should be the real one we should be tracking.

Yeah, like I said… I wouldn’t get too swept away with this run. I mean some sort of event may happen, but there are some arguments against it being such a massive scenario like that depiction tonight.

A big continuity shifts over Southern Canada/eastern Canada with regard to those pressure fields so don’t get too swept away in this run

The funny thing is is the better support is actually the ladder system between the 30th and the 1st, but we may end up getting two systems out of that stretch too which is perfectly valid

It’s impressive how it repositioned that 1040 high from north of Lake superior all the way over to north of Maine at 180 hours if that happens like that that’s not gonna end up being about a 15 to 20 inch snowstorm

GFS coming in with the 28th

High was 19 ... not bad, keeping the high below 20

That run has nothing for 10 days basically ... not sure I by the quiescence given the huge mode changes -

10 this morning .. all the way up to 16 so far. Looks like today is bottom day for this pattern cycle. Looking at Tuesday night ... the thing is, yeah the +PP fades away E and leaves our extended region exposed. However, the gradient in that backside environment spreads out. = The winds and warm advection are weak. That leaves a rotted polar air in place, still conditionally set up with some drier air and evaporation cooling potential ..and some other feed-backs. But that doesn't matter anyway. Because as soon as the new +PP tumbles over and around the NNE cordilleras ... that cold tuck jet is going to exceed whatever any and all guidance currently depict of it - guaranteed. Unless this recent generation of modeling technology can prove otherwise, the handling of any 925 mb "tuck" jet until 24 hours ahead is still suspect in my mind. That said... as this is just coming into the meso range... noticing not very much QPF. Yeah, the mid range GFS may have been overselling that aspect from whence this was a 2 or 3 days ago. What's new? - model attenuation when nearing a period of interest. I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being just light smear of snow N, and snow to IP and very light freezing ... never exceeding either low-end advisory, or just a 'specials' statement requirement. I had neglected to modulate my own thinking the other day, around the charlie browning model take away phenomenon. The set up is there in principle, however ... So it's possible there could still result more actual weight falling. I'm just annoyed by the attenuation aspect - we don't know how much is going to be taxed when moving a scenario from D7 to D3 (say..), but some amount of tariff appears to always happen as the distant range attempts to import the goods through the mid range docks. As far as that goes... that system the 00z and 06z operational GFS has programmed for the 27/28th smacks as a huge candidate for reduction of value. I'm beginning to recognize some nuances in the behavior of the 500 mb that may lend to deterministic understanding as to why that happens... This system is a nice test. The 30th appears anchored in a planetary timing.

We should pool resources and buy a group rate flight ticket for Torch Tiger and that q omega dude out to Frisco or L.A. in that pattern - give it to them as a show of appreciation for all their bravery in enduring a New England winter - hahaha

- the most recent GFS happens to be the most impressive and seemingly realized of said indexing. I wouldn't be shocked if we see bigger solutions in terms of cyclone size and power at some point for that 30th thing... But ... being 'not being shocked' isn't a forecast - just sayn'.

I've been trying to tell folks ... People get into this neg head daily culture and it's utterly blinding - it seems. the 30th is a big signal here...

yeah...well, I outlined early - will again... there's an impressive signal from about Jan 26 - Feb 4... within which Jan 30 is about centered - That event has been emerging into a favorable signal, not the other way around. This is actually (30th) the most telecon directive period I've seen this winter. so we'll see. I don't have a problem with any solution that hits that period with an emerge system. Euro and GGEM in fact both carry a system in the window at this point and all three have been gaining on this...

I don't know if your kidding ? ... anyway, the numerical representation of weeklies has a favorable spread... AO is modestly neg/EPO is modestly neg/PNA is modestly pos ... I don't normally employ the EWs but just cause you said that I admitted to looking. LOL. sue me. anyway, cheers.

Heh, there's a real signal on the 30th, though. Of what will show given time.

I hope the heat rifle loads up like this in early May ... +25C at 850 mb over southern Manitoba - no problem I mean ...this is eerily a +PNAP flow structure down stream of a +PNA surge ... resulting in that - wow

Yeah I’ve noticed that whenever the northern stream pulls N of the border … flopping kicks in among all the ens sources actually. I remember Scott and I were talking about this last month when we went through a period whence there was almost no predictability. It seemed like every two runs there was a wholesale different hemisphere look construction. I don’t know if we’re that bad right now, but it does seem like the entire area below 50N has opened up and populated with jet meanders more so than an identifiable main circulation stream. It strikes me as odd during an El Niño… Where the hell is the STJ been.

Not sure regression has much to do with

Hahaha best ball bust post ever

What George appears to be demonstrating in his responses is quite common among the plebeian perspectives over ...pretty much anything in reality. They stop their analysis at whatever is downloaded through their god -given USB ports: sight, sound, hearing, touch or taste. It may be an aptitude thing? It may be an emotional thing clouding judgement...? But either way, both are commonly found in the commoner ilk of intellectual limitations: they don't do as well with nuanced thinking, particularly if it has to process observed information that they don't even really understand the origin of in the first place. So, ...in essence, you're engaged in an non-influence-able discussion with someone incapable of 'getting it'.