Typhoon Tip

Wow... the MEX MOS is running 20 to 22 above climatology for D5 around the inland BDL-FIT-BED arc, for thu thru sat. Considering those machine numbers are weighted increasingly toward climo the further out in time, jesus. Check Brian - he seems to know the latest with that sort of stuff but sufficed it is to say, doing that much above, at that range, takes an extraordinary signal to push that.

Good info - I would only ask, it's not just the physically realized - as in where we are now in the growth of offsets. There are restrictions on fossil fuels being imposed upon these companies. There's no shortage of oil and coal - there is a necessity to stop using them. There is a shift toward cleaner gas(NAT) as a cleaner alternative - as part of that restriction. So yeah ... solar/wind/hydro .. these programs are small compared. But they will grow - It's the entire manifold of how the state of the system is being powered, and where that affects/effects the economics ending up in the laps of the consumer as clandestine shift - for lack of better word. I don't wanna come off as paranoid either lol. But the whole of it needs to be scrutinized. Regardless ... the cause, running a 300 $bill close to 800 for the same edifice looks like a shifting losses operation. This is a fossil fuel exit economic strategy - and at the end the day, and full disclosure, I'd rather the companies not be defended out of hand ...

I suspect this cold wave ( or "shot" ..whatever we wanna call it) in early November is useful for a more distant projection. Like Will has said in the past, "shot across the bow" I think that is portends as the autumn ages on. How much so and all that, notwithstanding or mentioned here. It's complex but the most simplified way I can say it is: -EPOs that are consistent with rising PDO o'er top RONI warm ENSO, amid a faster velocity jet tendency will smear the EPO --> PNA relay/transition both faster but more cold across the continent. Perhaps 'gradient' if I use the local vernacular ? Think of a hybrid between gradient, and shorter patter residences. I really see the models struggling with that idea in the actualized daily depictions that run over into the first week of November. Just between you and me and everyone else...if we snowed a synoptic event, even if middling and or unremarkable, during the first week of November - wouldn't shock me at all. And, if we were 75 F a week later, makes sense given these 'super synoptic' methods.

I know wow. Yeah, it is a standing wave - how else do we define that. Waves will assign a near stationary position in a streamline if the forces are closely balanced. interesting

Oh, yup. I just added that to my own post.

Yeah ..it's been doing that for over 3 weeks ...perhaps a month or even 5 weeks as far back as I can recall. I don't believe it is entirely unsuccessful in adding momentum to the system. The reason I say this is because there are observed aspect that are highly correlated to the 8-1-2 RMM spaces going on. Such as the 850 mb W wind over the east Pac and the associated TC activity there. Also, the WPO is pretty exceptionally negative... It's like it's held back but leaking dynamics You know what it 'seems' like? It seems like the wave is perhaps analogous (if not so) a standing wave.. Maybe there are about 50/50 constructive and destructive interferences in competition and things have locked ( so to speak ..). The IOD being in place is probably creating the local walker circulation doom for the wave cycling

Whatever we wanna/need to call it aside, to 99% of civility we have a spectacular series of days coming up this week. Couldn't be happier. The longer I can hold off turning on the heat in this little money pit home of mine the better. I suspect there is some chiseling going on that is not being as scrutinized/monitored (because the world is preoccupied by more imminent threat models) between these grid-scaled power companies and their relationship to suppliers. There is an ongoing shift of power generation away from bulk/macro, which is/was always reliant primarily upon fossil fuels ... blah blah, toward renewables. They are claiming that there is fuel supply shortage - that may be. But there is in fact no actual shortage in nature. The shortage - if so - is imposing because CC correction is now an imperative complexity. So ... they've jack prices espousing supply not meeting demand but that is a lie. I don't trust that. I believe these absurdly soaring monthly bills are really these company's shifting their losses, from the upsurge in renewable/rebate programs and the imperative combined, reducing their profits ... back onto the general population. F you. Sorry if it sounds socialist ...but there should really be a base grid in the telecom, and other basic social service necessities that avails to the ballast of the general population; a centralized infrastructure that the government can then work with complete control and disclosure toward renewable solutions. Then, if people want more than their/that base provision ...THAT is when they can reach out to commercial and/or privately own resources with their own revenue and pay for it. But, in the end ... even if only half right with the above 'hot take' on the 'real' cause for these soaring electrical bills, the whole of it would be ultimately self defeating for the power companies. Because ...they are going to end up igniting the fervor of the masses. En masse there will be incentives to cut them off in lieu of the renewables. The only problem with solar and other programs ... they are only dubiously affordable. From what I can tell, loaded with 'fine print' economics. These are greedy start up and or preexisting enterprises seeing the prospect and going 'cha ching cha ching' And they've already inundated this new market space with the incentive of profit. Where are the programs there for the virtuosity of saving the planet's life? This whole CC thing, real whether you want or can believe it or not (unfortunately), really is an "inconvenient truth," ironically. Capitalism cannot solve this issue - it has to be incentivized around not dying, and less about denying and/or leveraging for that way.

Yeah … I haven’t looked but just sayn’ pretty strong negative WPO index appears ready to punch across the north pacific and send the Pacific into the AB circulation mode type. That’s going to lower the global budget by a bit … so I was speaking about going forward

yeah jokes aside I think if anything the 2-m temp progs could be underdone Thursday and Friday if those 00z runs were to work out. I saw it be 79 F two days, back to back, in early November of 2020 ( after the Halloween snow that year ) to underscore an Indian Summer... We're 3 weeks before then? we can touch 80. Don't know if it will or what altostrata shit streaks times just perfectly wrongly or what else is going to do it, but +15C 850 well mixed under a low RH ceiling seems like 72F is too conserved.

Scott bitches and complains and then the GFS tries to send a marginal system through LOL

The PDO is not strongly negative ... In fact, since the leading physical drive for the PDO is SS stressing due to wind anomaly distribution, it's more likely that the 'coupled' PDO/atmospheric aspect is something other than a -PDO considering it's risen some 2 SD or more in the last 20 days.

Some years oaks can put on a spectacular crimson show... This year they look like vomit yellow around here - so yeah. any species that dodged the Septoria bullets may pop particularly vibrantly against that backdrop of baby shit beige

People are grousing lol. I'd say we've already moved the CC needle enough to damage our winters. That is, compared to those Rockwellian vibes that well-up from the catacombs of our memories to early life, in the relative sense. It's actually a testament to the rapidity in which this shit's happening. Like ... in a single life time. Those with a will to be unbiased, however successful notwithstanding ... might happen to sense that's the case: something is definitely fucked up. That all said, I don't believe winter's are FUBAR, either. There'll still be plenty of cold air around at times. There will be storms that avail of it. But there will also be storms that don't time so well, AND, I feel we've prooobably crossed a threshold in CC where these latter event profiles have silently become more frequent. Set expectations around that being the case, and let the dice roll -

Telecon spread's still hitting it pretty hard. Not willing to sell just yet. Yesterday I did an op ed discussing early Novie as a cold signal in the winter thread - those aspect/points are all still valid from what I'm seeing since. We'll see how it lines up. The above index spread ( from all sources, too) is a pretty solid canonical evolution that typically ends well for cold and storm enthusiasts from late N through F. This early in the ensuing cold season? mmm can present certain challenges to delivery. To mention, the model volatility during transition seasons ... These caveats were included. I've noticed in recent years ( since mid aughts) that these entire ensemble weighted index mode projections are more unstable than they were in the 1990s. I've seen more chunks of days where they are showing good continuity for a warm(cool) biased pattern, suddenly reverse and/or just slip a lot of magnitude from seeming no forcing too. It's rattled confidences in the technology suite a little. yup. Hypothesis: fast flow/velocity saturation with additional hemispheric scaled gradient is causing that. Add this caveat,too -

We do get storms like this in January ... In fact, over the last 5 years it's been more common than not lol

Another cycle and edging yet more impressive... That is a particularly deep signal for an extended range ensemble mean wrt to temperature anomaly/distribution signal. That's cold folks!

It's crashing ...

Yeah the epicosity of today’s shit show is boundless I read somewhere yesterday that 7/8 weekends have ruined one or both weekend days since mid August at the regional scale.

So.... he gets like 4-6" and we get 40-60" just like climatology?

Winter arrives in early November ... (close to making a thread?, but hold off for now) Not sure of the longevity there after - in fact, I wouldn't be shocked if the continent handsomely reverses deeper in the month - perhaps transiently, prior to a cyclic -EPO autumn. Ensuing daily deterministic guidance (i.e., your GGEMs to ECMWF's et al) solutions begin manifesting LE/Lakes and NW el flow snows as a minimum, amid an atmospheric anomaly easily supportive of a synoptic winter profile event(s). The period Halloween through 10th, particularly near the end of that first week - timing and specifics are too nebular at this range to be very specific (obviously). We're negotiating this idea between guidance sources and techniques, but the common denominator below the noise has been and continues to be an extraordinarily deep -WPO. This aspect (and the leading Asian torque foot) has erstwhile been bouncing off a -PDO basal N Pac circulation (AA mode). In other words, there's likely been erstwhile destructively interference between the two. However, using the SST metric ... there is apparently a 'bending' if not break point where the WPO forcing is on the threshold of winning. There is a pretty dramatic -PDO collapse - one that I suggest is partially obscured by a general N Pac that's got a 'thermal hangover' from the global spike phenomenon during this last spring and summer... These changes in NE Pac SST distribution suggest a N Pac atmospheric mode is being more receptive to WPO. That will likely result in a -WPO bursting through/-EPO (AB phase), a hand shake that is manifesting spatially in the ensemble means as early season cross polar construct roughly centered on D12 We're just not doing this at Christmas so we get what we get out of it... There's are some interesting suggestions from basement, too...The MJO has been drilling a hole in space, stuck, for almost 3 weeks, right around phase 8. It is very low amplitude, but present nonetheless. An indirect indicator for its momentum in the total manifold ...there has been modeled a W 850 mb wind over the north side of the NINO 1+2 region, which has both assisted in spinning up far E Pac TC activity, but also occasionally triggering the formulation of CAG circulation over the western Caribbean. It is less important this latter aspect actually materializes for us up here throughout the OV/NE/SE Canada; the model physics have been 'detecting' forcing that is consistent with a MJO phase 8-1-2 space correlation. In other words ... it's there lurking so these tell us not to ignore its contribution to this thing. In the more convention usage: -- the -EPO is both correlated to early season warm ENSO -- modeled to exist now -- is forecast by all ensemble sourced derivatives to relay the above into a +PNA ...OR (and this is important!) a neutral PNA with a +PNAP across mid latitudes of the N/A continent. This is the canonical tendency. We can see 850 mb temperature anomalies flooding Canada while we are basking in a short lease warm up during this mid next week. I'm not firing off a thread for this out of deference to the stochastic model performance during transition seasons. More over, these above changes in the hemisphere happening, whilst the atmosphere has already got teenager changes-induced mood swings going on already ...should nicely assist even ensemble weighting to swing too far left or right - so to speak. But I'll tell ... it is honestly a refreshing journey to have something legit in the relative coherency of scaled indicators to finally write about. It's been probably 3 years since I've had this chance. Lord

I have my doubts on it intensifying very much further (seeing as you asked me LOL ) Just a hypothesis, but we may have already peaked. I have a notion I'm working on that the Aerosol-related/theorized global temperature spike cast an allusion of stronger drive. The La Nina suppressed the atmospheric thermal response to the reduction in aerosols...spanning a few years of its unusual longevity. It seemed that as the La Nina first began empirically weakening earlier this last spring, the global spike phenomenon, both air and sea and amid every latitudes (shocking actually) ... all left the launch pad and ascended almost lock step. These changes were prior to the warm ENSO foot being established. There are El Nino mechanics going on, but these disparate aspects are very difficult to parse out from one another. There's been too many baseline canonical mechanics insufficient for an El Nino destined to an exalted dimension, and that's been pretty evident all along.

Foliage appeared to have two aspects going on... One, this Septoria fungus hurt a lot of trees. Those that were damaged tended to down leafs prematurely along with a poorer color presentation, much of which began a couple of weeks earlier than normal ( end-ish of September). Two, those that were not affected appear to be transitioning into their expression peak a week to some 10 days late. It seems this latter aspect is 'salvaging' the season for some areas. Lot of species that I grew up with would not carry on saffron and reds this late into October. Usually done by the 12th or 15th... Interestingly, Oaks are going yellow up here - so there's something weird with them too

Yeah, I stopped short of mentioning that split flow is a precursor to icing and stuff but yeah

Most often when a -EPO onsets the initial Rossby signal is a shorter wave length. This initially forces an undercut jet to torpedo underneath the block. It may wiggle the PNA negative when that happens … but transitory. The normal progression of the mature -EPO is to neutralize it by dumping the geo-p surplus (figuratively) into PNA’s eastern domain —> +D(PNA) This is the idealized model … variations on this theme take place. For ex, rapid relays can move the EPO so quickly that the merge with and forcing a rising PNA are almost seamless. Other times the EPO hangs around and the split/and or “torpedo jet” (flow bifurcation) can last longer.

The idea of cooling off the eastern continent in the first week of November has legs. Magnitude? ...yeah, cross that bridge... General reader: there are some pretty identifiable and classic mass field behaviors going on in the guidance spread (foreign and domestic) - namely, a relay from a potent early -EPO into a distant ( presumed ...) elevation of the PNA. That's the canonical practice in the time-lag relationship between those particular very important indexes for loading east of the Pacific... blah blah ... = a cooling implication evolves by that time.