Typhoon Tip

Yup - entering the time of year when well mixed atmosphere's through which > 70% solar, machine interpolations will routinely bust too cool to varying amounts. I've never fully understood why that is the case ... I suspect it's related to weighting toward climatology, the farther out in time the technology does the calculation. But, if you take a dry adiabatic day at +5 C in May and soak it fully sun and WSW flow, MOS leans low

And by the way… Elevated storage of atmospheric water vapor is the first thing the most primitive climate models began predicting, and that prediction has only gotten more excessive over the sophistication of the science/decades.

And then we have a real volcanic eruption …I don’t know … ME6 or 7, having successfully cooled the planet already by a degree and a half when it happens… - If they’re already launching balloons then we’re already doing panic solutions

They’ll be panic measures …rushed out of necessity because like what’s happening in the last year and a half showed us fools, this shit show can go through accelerations that nobody thought were believable. Maybe it’ll work, but it would be a race. And as resources become abruptly scarce because of proverbial firewall events …too difficult and expensive …crops fail on macro scales, food shortages, death in heat waves that exceed projections …runs on banks, social structures destabilize ultimately become untethered and untenable, social order finally dissolves. Book of Eli finally, we understand why for the Fermian Paradox

That’s extremely difficult to get +5 out of any month frankly. I mean it’s easier to do it in winter like we’ve been discussing duh but I’m still impressed with that whenever it exceeds five.

And not to be holier than thou sounding … Which, admittedly, this may come across like that but I am quite serious: for those of us who are very sensitive to differentiation because we’ve been so passionately involved in weather and climate since we first garnered memories on and of this planet… this stuff was becoming apparent in the early 2000s … It’s just that now the examples are becoming too gross to ignore. I think that what’s catching people offguard is what nobody expected and that is that we are getting these spike events. Like what happened pan-planet over the last year, when the oceans up and soared … everywhere. All latitudes by a full degree Celsius. Then we shattered every monthly air temperature - it was like a heat flash on a planetary scale. Well, guess what the ocean haven’t cooled off… in fact rose further snd just set another record. I mean we’re like sitting in a frying pan trying to convince ourselves it’s not hot I mean how fucking dumb and retarded this has become. Pan of frogs

We’ve had two weeks worth of it down here. I mean we just had like three days in a row when highs stayed below freezing …,nights single digits. My guess is it wasn’t warmer up there than it was down here? It also happened about Two weeks before that. So I think it’s been colder than last year in terms of just getting any but I might be wrong there.

Here … if this helps, Alberta Clipper A fast moving low pressure system that moves southeast out of Canadian Province of Alberta (southwest Canada) through the Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes region usually during the winter. This low pressure area is usually accompanied by light snow, strong winds, and colder temperatures. Another variation of the same system is called a "Saskatchewan Screamer".

How is something that cannot incur harm a “threat”

Why isn’t this pinned ?

watch it

The thing is, once we get out post 300 and especially 360 hours, we approach what I call the "coherency horizon" - just means that beyond that, there's zip skill and the flow tends to start looking rather annular as the westerlies direction becomes the only aspect that remains (artifact of ensembles in every direction)/N input. However, in this case there's an emergence of that powerful +PNA ... ironically, in all ens means - which makes it unusually more coherent than we would normally see at that range. It's really interesing.. long ass slog before we can start picking specific events out the noise. But to have the more typically entropic range look so structured is really fantastic. Ha... it seems we keep upping the ante on what is wasted, huh. j /k

... I mean the reason I wrote that tongue-in-cheek just then is because I'm trying to figure out what the mania in here is about? It really seems in all seriousness like there's a "mood dysfunctionalilty" that is completely triggered by the fact that there isn't a big presentation on any operational guidance cinema. I really do wonder if a single run changes that

Meh... the common engager tends to be pretty linear in their reactions, though: x' looks like shit --> mood = shit doesn't matter what happened before what they saw...discussed. any of that. gone. see shit model solution --> mood = shit that's their mathematics. a few others can filter what they are seeing through a gauntlet of qualifiers, (experience + education)/2 before they react - but that processing actually limits much "reaction" at all. the may even be rather stoic to a bad or even bad series of model runs. what is interesting about this latter type of people, possessing varying amounts of that advantage/skill ... they are deliciously fragile in self-esteem and ego and the moment they are questioned they actually react worse than those of the linear group HAHAHAHA

One of those coastals arrived with an event entry temperature of +9 F here ... warmest it would be during the duration. Routine 50 to 55 mph wind gusts creaking window and rafter transported cold-shattered snow particulates as though it were an explosion at a talcum powder refinery. At one point just before the storm wound down the temperature stood at -1 F with 1/8 mi vis ... That was the worst combination of cryosophere I had experienced since the Cleveland Super Bomb Jan 25/27 1978, when it was 15F with 65 mph wind gusts over 30" of snow, the top several inches of which were in wind-driven flux.

would not trust anything the GFS is selling during the next 3 to maybe 5 days... Not the type of hemisphere that particular model does very well in - which is, a combination of a pattern change happening while velocities are relaxing(ed). Just look at the recent handling of this scenario over the near-by west Atlantic Basin. Most guidance do not do so well at 300+ hour anyway - not expected to... But, the GFS is particularly extra-special secret sauce useless... If it's not handling the mid range worth a shit, that's no lending credence to the anything in that distant range ( understatement). Having said that, it doesn't seem to even have pattern orientation nearing the ides of the month, I time when all other available tooling and techniques have highly correlative +PNA --> loading a +PNAP hemisphere.

I’m leaning more progressive than the GFS op’s. which defaults to some sort of interlude of warming. No comment on how but the op Euro seems to be on the extreme end of the solutions.

Op 0Z Euro had a +11C 850 mb plumb approaching NYC next week fwiw- …getting precariously close to ‘heat burst’ criteria … Worlds of difference to the op GFS for that time, but again … recent GFS runs have been demonstrative outliers.

If it helps anyone ... those probability products are not designed for scalar outlooks ? - people seem to forget that whenever someone posts those hot colors. A 70% chance of above normal only means literally a 70% chance of above normal - that can mean anything ... +0.10 or +10 ... It just is a confidence interval that points which side of 0.0 the expected temperature biases will result. That's all. Nothing else... It shouldn't have to mean 70% chance that someone with Kleenex, lotion and an antisocial penchants gets to e-rape the going sentiment in route to their orgasm because they were raised in a toxic, gay-shading penumbra during critical formulative years. LOL J/k... Also, you can see the pattern change at mid month showing up nicely in the extended 850 mb anomalies. We'll see if these hold ... We could certainly see the arrival of pattern change and have these normalize some - in fact that kind of 'warm correction' sneaking in ... obviously they've been a leitmotif spanning the last 20 years of modeling, regardless. I wouldn't normally bother at such long leads..but, since this is backed by so much suggestive weighting it'll be interesting to see what form winter's swan song actually takes

Spectrum ...that's why

The operational GFS has been acting like a zonked errant ensemble member the last day and half -worth of runs. The larger scope spatial orientation is too consistently against in the cinemas of all other available sources, both operational versions to their ensemble means. Including the GFS' own ensemble mean. Really puts nearly 100% of the onus on it to be right. That's not usually ending well for the guidance that's doing that - a coup over the group thinking is one thing, but that? That amount of deviation argues for something of another excessive aberrancy altogether. Short version: punt. ...Oh, we'll keep it going as an afterthought. Mainly because we're psychotically incapable of letting go LOL. But what are we talking about anyway - it's not like it's going to come far enough west to put anyone in headline anything. It really can't with a mid Canadian ridge collapsing S-E/transmitting a non-linear argument for blocking from the NW whether it is actually observably so on the charts or not ( hence the non-linear aspect -) heh. buh-bye. 13th+ still beacons with potential

ICON trended significantly this 0Z

It’s not hooking yet, but it’s really close to getting captured

Yeah it’s interesting. Hook and latter’s been a recurrent suggestion

it would give lovelorn SEerners a couple good tugs from OES ... That's a helluva long fetch transporting fresh polar air out of the polar maritime