Typhoon Tip

It was something I mentioned ( in snark) a couple hours ago because I noticed the 00Z GEPs mean getting aggressive with this look ... Having said that ...it's really kind of silly to angst. That chart is 360+ hours ... The 12z seemed to ease off slightly, and the EPS and GEFs were not as excessive anyway. The other thing is .. when has any time range beyond 240 hours ever been a lock on an NAO mode?

You can keep the -NAO ... ... GEP's idea on that would be a storm destructive/compression hell.

Solid support group dynamic going this morning LOL

I actually think this has legs - it's inCREdibly highly correlated right now in the numerical telecon projections, and the bulk ens layouts, en masse, make it almost physically impossible for just about anything to NOT happen when using the method/approach, too. Something's gonna take place. Could be a procession of events. Could be one or two more significant scenarios. I suspect that hyper bomb thing in the prior run would have trouble being an impact here ( more so up the coast toward the lower Maritime, sure -), because well prior to the pieces of that coming together ... heights over Florida and adjacency are too high ... the geostrophic basal wind velocities humming along > 50 kts ...That means the flows already compressed and that doesn't favor the meridian position of a deepening trough - that's why the model simultaneously closes off a multi-contoured 500 mb surface while moving it off to the NE so quickly.. .Usually, that kind of deepening in the mid troposphere slows down - in this sense ... it can't do that. This is what doomed the M/A forecast for the March 2001 "super massive black hole quasar extra double top secret hyper bomb" ... The models waited until the most possible Met careers were on the line to then correct for that compression/velocity in the flow and foisted the total scaffolding to higher latitudes. Anyway, the 06z is a better solution for the above predicament ... **BUT** ... this is speaking relative to this recent series of run particulars. These aspects could certainly modulate.

The modeled synoptics are acting like it is late March during the next week. Very spring like ... The 850 mb handling with that attempt at wet snow in the operational 06z GFS in a week is perfect example of what typically happens in spring. We could be 60 F, but since DPs are low and the hydrostats not particularly warm ... as soon as the sun disappears behind overrunning cloud density and saturation commences, temps crash and it's wet snow ...even if cat paws and bouncing pellets..etc... April 1 1997 ... it was 66 F at 1pm at UML's weather station. Two days later ... 18" of blue glory with 30" in Sudbury. That sort whiplash happens in spring, in our climate. Nape balm days --> snow... I've actually seen 50 F sleet pellets bouncing off car tops before, because the air was so dry that when a warm front first approached and spread light rain fall, it dumps it into hygroscopic well - the particulates thermally shock by latent heat of evaporation. It can actually be geek-fascinating, too. I recall an April day back in the late 1990s when it was 48F with light rain and IP bouncing, and while that was happening ... the sky was brightening from the SW. The precip end/moved away and sharp clearing line move in, and for 3 hours unabated solar blaze sent it to 65 F... Anyway... cheer on the spring preview. It'll be slow through Tuesday morning but as soon as this west Atl/Maritime trough breaks down, we dry air nape balm about 40 days ahead of climo

It's highly unlikely to go 0-for in that look. The other aspect ... due to the climate signal relationship with elevating global PWATs being a constant integral problem to all synoptic manifolds in real f'ing undeniable, incontrovertible time ... trying to ask New England ( of all places and climate ) to go 2 weeks in a wildly amplifying +PNA, is tantamount to not having a great deal of talent in the field of deterministic meteorology - that's the long way of saying dumb.

Nah ... might be some hints of that appeal, but the real deal is this next Friday and Saturday. Well, depending which guidance one chooses. The blend of the Euro and GGEM? Ho man. I don't care what the 2-m layouts depict, if that synopsis pans out under Feb 9 full sun, it will be in the low to mid 60s.

Maybe you have S.A.D. latency lol. Actually, I was kind of liking the cloudy days. It was still air and cold enough underneath that the ground coverage persisted. For a shit winter ...we've actually managed to count up some "snow on the ground days" - it's just not been very deep.

I realize there's close to 300 pages on the matter out in the main WNC forum ...but I'm willing to hunch that is transient. There was a pretty significant WWB over the past 2 to 3 weeks in association with a rare feat: an MJO that actually coupled ... But, those come and go and as the curve shows, there are many intra-seasonal variances that can be triggered by short duration wind related stressing patterns. If using the same metrical supposition - we'll see what the MJO desk/CPC thinks about it Monday or Tuesday. But anyway, it may not represent a real longer term push

No but heh. I seriously just read that. … it’ll be an interesting challenge for this mid month

So it’s been 707 days since Logan saw 4” of snow in 24 hrs?

EPS sees the 12th/13th

same requirement ... I'm not seeing a downward propagation of a thermal mass field in any of the prognostics. That may materialize to be the case - okay. But until it does... it's just another warm burst(s) that fades at altitude.

Euro restructuring it's late mid/ext range ... looks a lot more GFS oriented with important S/W space into the OV by D9... Obviously there's limited deterministic value in it... but, seeing as these solutions align with correlations on the pattern projections it's enough to at least mention.

this is why I was tellin folks not to ignore the 12th - it's still a longish shot, but the GFS is attempting to take a stab at a first pass in an increasingly favorable hemisphere with them 3 days there

There's an under the radar irony though - not to give neg head neuroticism another narrative ... But, this first two weeks of February is really whence the interquartile density of the historic cyclone frequency scatter plot is situated in time. So, we bi-pass that period with static inactivity instead. Kind of funny

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/forum/18-climate-change/

GFS continues to offer its primitive early guess/suggestion for the first round -

right - ... nothing screams a stellar result for winter enthusiasts like a steady inject of warm thicknesses

Folks seem preoccupied with seeking big dawgs . The arriving +PNA saddle bagging the continental mid latitude flow can also result in a procession of middling events. Just sayn'

These recent GFS operational runs are (imho) taking a primitive stab at an event. The last three cycles have landed on the 12th, 14th and 15th ... but it's not abundantly clear whether it's just alternating the timing of the same mechanical wave space from ...wherever in the hell the model is sniffing that out. As I was describing in a PM this morning ... technically the pure statistical inference allows for field activation from the 11th on. We local time scale nadir the PNA, but it starts rising right away. The GFS tends to be 'rushy' anyway, so ..if I were going to pistol select a date in that range I'd lean 15th/17th. What is interesting though, we have been plagued by fast hemispheres for years really. SO the GFS is kind of enabled within its own bias? something like that... So, we could see an entrance system in the +d(pNA) slope, then move up and help implode the JB coupled SPV with the western Canadian ridge. Then a more powerful ... perhaps even planetary scaled signal evolves out of that... speculative.

HA ha hahaha. Like we needed a folklore of any kind to tell us that was likely.

The general ambit of the scientific community has employed methods for corroborative data ( from disparate sourcing...) for hundreds of years. From Biology to Geology to Deep Field Astronomy, to Quantum Mechanics... Meteorology, Hydrology ... any disciplinary study that passes through accreditation has corroborated empirical evidence/data. Einstein paced while, " In 1922 an expedition was undertaken to obtain photographs, taken during an eclipse of the sun, from which the bending of light as it passed by a massive body such as the sun could be measured. Such measurements were required to test Einstein's newly proposed Theory of Relativity " As it were ... measurements taken of the position of Mercury showed errors in reality that Newtonian physics could not predict, until application of the GTR (Einsteinian) precisely predicted the actual position. Probably butchering this a little but this is a already completely wrong for a February thread LOL That's just one example. The point is, the necessity to corroborate from unaffiliated sources has always been there. There really is no "why is your data more pertinent than mine" - that's not intrinsic in how accredited science operates. Climate change is soaked with corroborated data - which makes its disposal ( at all ...) therefore all the more intriguing. There are couple of primary reasons for that intrigue that are competing [for greatest cause of our extinction, tongue goes into cheek ] The first of which is, ... we deny because we can - I strongly suspect that is an enabled one. It is enabled because the specter of CC has been too silent for it's slow moving nature, until very recently ... , to penetrate the soft luxury of a provisional state. Like all species on our planet, human beings formulate their understanding of their environs vis-a-vis what is perceivable through the 5 senses. You know ...? sight sound taste touch smell. These are "USB ports" that connect us with the universal CPU. We just have self-imposed evolved a "filtration virus" in the form of convenience addling by everything that occurs inside the Industrial bubble; the same machinery that is toxifying the planet ( not just CC, there's other reasons that will kill you related to everything from PFAs to mircro plastics ...etc... all of it ), also prevents its harm from getting into these USB ports. It's created a false universe of safety inside the grander system that allows it to even exist. Sounds an awful lot like a virus, huh? Hence, people deny because they can ... or are being allowed to, unwittingly. The other reason ( which may have some partial causal relationship with first aspect above...) is that the issue surrounding climate change became politicized decades ago. ... thus has became a target of distrusting. That is the entrance to a rabbit hole of irreconcilable rages, because no one's political view ever succeeded in changing another one's political view without a war.

Feb 8 at 40 N so it's probably 10th or so by us.. That's when we start eating snow banks ( ...what the f* is a "snow bank" right ?) even in cold air. You get the 'shard' look - not the be mistaken with the "shart look" hahahaha. If the wind is very low and there's ample sun, it's a great time to sit on a park bench, or stroll slowly down the street. It can be 35F in the ambient temperature but you feel a kind of warm nucleus surrounding you - it's an interesting dichotomy. Very fragile. The slightest zephyr penetrates and then you get a bit of a bite breeze to ( ...you guessed it!) the nape region. HAHAHAHA. And of course, Ray's fAvorite effect ...the interior of a cars parked in the open start roasting inside - this latter one interesting, because it's pretty differentiably noticeable more between the 5th and 10th. The graphical slope of watts/m2 begins to tip abruptly more steep around that perennial date.

You think that FIT 20.7" is a mythical slanter. LOL ... Seems a bit of an outlier, though -