Typhoon Tip

That 2020 scenario was born out of a completely different synopsis.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/12/15/climate/glosat-global-temperature-data

So I guess the gripe is centered around losing the white Xmas ? as far as the 'scalar' value of the Euro run ( anyway ) I thought that was entertaining enough. Xmas itself on that run has a wall of snow with probable impact visibility and road deterioration issues as a strong WAA burst throws a quick 3" followed by some IP/zr... It cuts off, then there's a Schwegler wrap for some mood stuff lingering into Boxing morning. It's a winter storm man. Then there's a NJ modeler for 3-5" three days later... It's D10 so ... yeah, probably won't be there on the next cycle lol. but it's not exactly a winterless run

--I wouldn't call it "disdain", per se. But definitely reservations. Certainly, a measured approach - not happening.... One should always understand "how" things work. It's a virtuosity that ...even if folks had the presence of mind to see and fulfill ( which is seldom observed -), there's too much. AI adds to the growing menagerie of things people don't really understand as they navigate modernity - just handed instructions on how to use by economic enterprises. Good luck. Yet, it is at a sort of 'intellectual event horizon' beyond which it cannot be fathomed, even if they wanted to - not by 98% of the using population. It's not intellectually tenable. This creates a wider gap, one that may not be bridge-able. There is a crisis of social mores, and breakdown of common morality. Example, what used to keep mass shootings ( for example) down to one or two every 10 years going back to the 1920s. People just didn't act to absurdly. Much less conceive of ever doing so in the first place. All but just a very small tiny fraction of beyond-fringe psychosis were at least sufficiently guided; they acted as at least tenuous, but in place nonetheless, safe-guards that kept things in check. Now? one every 6 months, a number that far exceeds the "very small fraction" number, too. Something is extraordinarily motivating, enough so to indoctrinate merely untoward ideologies into committing to specific actions. And if anyone has a modicum of understanding about sociology and history, they'll see that the most fantastic force to ever have impacted humanity, during and immediately preceding that uprising, wasn't just fire or the wheel. It has been this unchecked innovation --> advent of technologies, since the Industrial Revolution, that is proven too profoundly capable of unilaterally either helping, or afflicting at a species level. The fairest way to define this era is truly a techno-sociological experiment at an evolutionary scale - one that 90some% of the population density will lack the capacity to even be aware of what it is they are being unwittingly subjected to ... Can't end well playing with Cosmos' gun. Failure to understand and commit to the virtuosity of understanding how something works, that same something that one is allowing to guide them? That is a problem when people intertwine with it in blind presumptive faith. From one end of the spectrum of miss-use, to the other end of becoming co-dependent, then having it fail: Where does that leave us?

That's not the scary part. Not really. The scary part is that there are those that seem to be "gifted" in their utilization of the technology - just naturally so. Like they seem to gravitate toward usage. Just seemed 'get it' with a lucidity in engagement that makes them synergistic, ( potentially ) immensely powerful - with great power comes great responsibility. How irresponsible is that going to be?

Heh... y'all must be new to this social media engagement lol

Again ... setting expectations proportional to what is becoming (otherwise) too painfully clear to ignore, will do wonders for ameliorating one's angst. When the flow slows, it's too warm to snow - or tends to be. I've learned to just know this will result - and I've been right more often then not. I feel no distraction. Acceptance will set you free! Related to that ... I was looking at the 300+ hr Euro and that's remarkable. 570 dm heights over the EPO domain, almost that high over the eastern limb of the NAO domain, and the flow in between spanning the continent is compressed at the nadir. So much so it's intrinsically a +velocity-related negative interference pattern. So it's like yeah ... there's cold around ( still - ) but getting it to 40N, here we are again. Seeing so without this negative result has been rarefying.

Why bother I just rather the ridge go ahead and take over rather than swinging wildly between 57 and misty light rain and faux swarm sector winds to 35° dry northwest flow and back and repeat? Fuck that. If that east biased negative NAO ends up over N Europe … the mid N/A continent ridge will take over. it can’t trend anymore. Two days ago when the NAO first showed up it was west.

Y’all droolin over the 18z GFS? Three 6+ers Xmas to NYE no melts between

Y’all droolin over the 18z GFS? Three 6”ers Xmas to NYE no melts between

My dad told me a story growing up in late 1940s… Had an ice storm like that across Southern lower Michigan. This is long before the current kind of infrastructure or even highway system was nearly as evolved as it is now so probably lacks notoriety but anyway. He said that after about an inch and a half of accreted ice, it transitioned to snow and they had 8 inches on top. That’s something I’ve always wanted to see - a major on top a major

Yeah, I mentioned ice earlier… I haven’t had a chance to expand on any of that. In short it does look like we’re trying to move toward more of polar boundary being on the doorstep. No need to expand on those kinds of vulnerabilities. It put’s a lot of stuff back in play. It doesn’t look like a clean warm departure as much as it did yesterday - plenty of time

Still a long way off but ... should the EPO surprise blossoms like that there's ain't gonna be no warm end of the month

12z Euro's Currier&Ives

crippling ice storm