Typhoon Tip

It is slightly more amplified over TX by hr 60 ... not sure how that works itself out farther E as these changes are subtle, but there is a slight amplitude improvement at that interval

Personally as an industry I'm not pleased with the rollout of this new AI technology. This needs to have a prioritized expose as to how this stuff works. What the expectations are. It's all very difficult to find, and find that to be divisive. It's quite obvious why. There is a sense of competition, ask later -ism that is going on, where different sub-sectors are afraid of losing a competitive edge, so they are rushing out these AI products that are probably based on a rudimentary model that can be "tweaked" - but in the meantime, no one gets to know that they don't really know what, nor how to do it very well. That part is kept very hidden. It's just that everyone has AI this that and other ...so organizational ineptitude can remain lost in the noise of all this AI. Either way, being left with no answers other than food for suspicion doesn't lend confidence in any of these AI model versions. And it is a little scary as more and more non-criticality gets comfortable with an assumption in using them.

I don't trust these AI's "know" ( pun intended ) what they're doing. Looking at their 500 mb isohypses progressions through the periods they smack to me of the primitive MRF of the mid 1980s. It could also just be a coincidence, but I'm inclined to wonder nonetheless if that is why they are always optimistic/more so than their operational colleagues. It's like they are learning ... but they are just in the 1980s middle school, where as the operational runs today are ... freshmen in college say. Lot of metaphor packed into all that but you get my gist -

man... this all happened when that relay took place overnight with the GFS. this is also about when it finally pulled the plug on this event today, too ... right when I observed the ballast of the S/W mechanics were over land i'm growing more and more convinced that the data assimilation is getting caught with its pants down. i'm also beginning to suspect we are exposing an explanation for the mysterious mid range amplitude loss that seems to be pretty dependable - altho i see that in other guidance, too.

I don't think that stuff is true guys... The GFS dropped the 15/16 system, but then redrew it up where it is happening now. The Euro did the same thing; they just did this at different times. I realize there's some fun frustration context going on... but the problem is any model trying to perform in this type of pattern constraint.

Suggest watching the 24th thru the 30th for a significant event emergence in future guidance - weighted later. Unfortunately, ...waiting is not a virtue that comes easy to the beleaguered but you have no choice. I think anything prior to that last week is blind buckshot.

Actually the the convection is triggered the other way. The vmax has streamline and flow velocity -related difluence above an unstable environment, so the convection is triggering along that axis ahead of the vorticity ribbon you circled. Convective vorticity exposes in the speckling you see out ahead. Those are convective induced

No argument ... 12z has a low probability recovery chance. Tho it grows more and more difficult to imagine something working out right given the persistent failure quota, no doubt. Realistically, the odds probably don't favor so we're flipping weighted coins

Yeah, I agree that a full strike with a moderate event ( this has a lower ceiling btw - unless something bizarre suddenly shows up that had zero grid presentation before hand.. non-zero chance I guess) has not been removed from the spectrum of outcomes. However, a complete whiff cannot be ruled out just the same. This needs to be < 72 ...maybe 84 hours I feel, because all the governing kinematics will be in the digestive system of the continental synoptic body, and we'll see what it poops out for us at that time.

Later yesterday I mentioned that this system seemed to have better odds to succeed based largely on a modeling motif to correct system W-N moving through the middle ranges this season. This may buck that trend if indeed the wave mechanics now tipping over Alaska and the NW Territories continues to be attenuated. This really seems to be a situation that's almost entirely sensitive to how much is conserved of that S/W(s) spacing as it coalesces and dives S through the NP moving forward... We can almost break all this down to tax arithmetic as a metaphor... the fast flow is like a flat tax, and it will take/absorb the same amount, either way. Whatever's left as it hits the SE ... etc

Recency bias ... whenever there's been a interim collapse toward less significance, that's verified with remarkable consistency - As an aside, it's actually an homage to amazing modeling, actually. Though high likelihood ... not being perceived that way, hahaha. But at least this crap is happening at D4 and not 24 hours before. That's what it meant to be 1980s ... Relative to now and the state of the art, people expect model cinemas that look good, to keep doing so from say ... D6. That might be possible in a slower, more canonical meridian pattern structure... But, when were running S/Ws through a fast field, it's still taxing models. This thing is just as of 06z now relayed over Alaska/adjacent NW Territories. I'm curious if we see a tick or two as that should refresh the grids coming up here soon

no, it's vestigial of S/W moving into/through a compressed field

00z GFS vitals are between the 18 and 12

Fwiw, the GEFs has bodily moved west, by several grid points actually. Even has a fair number of middling depth members straddling the BM. 12z left, 18 right Probably should also add... sense of this is a middle ranged cyclone ... a correcting west track has possibility, but the sub 980 idea of the GFS probably doesn't pass the middle range amplitude dimming aspect.

Yeah, wind and snow for a dome team like Houston...