Typhoon Tip

It's really super shallow, too. The 850 mb temp and wind layout really doesn't even speed up over that. It's all from 925 and lower

Sides, that doesn't look "ruined" to me "as is". It's probably a waste of time to discuss the snap shot, particularly at this range, but for shits and giggles.. we are still 558+ hydrostats when that front episodically slips S. It's not like that's we 540- bisecting Maine.

not to be a douche but I warned ya. It said this couple whatever days ago that it's very precarious given both our climatology, but the season's persistence/behavior, to sustain a stationary boundary with +PP running E of Ontario without it collapsing S. It may even go back N... ? sure. I just would be duly impressed if we actually got 5 or 6 days in a row of 70+ weather. Not given our climatology of mid April alone, but then including the way persistence has also been over the last 7 month, heh. That'd be pretty fantastic

That was an incredible heat wave... It was also in the 90F range in Eastern 2010 (2012) weekend. Heat in April has a bit of an advantage - which is quite counter intuitive, I'm sure. It's because the soil moisture over the continental expanse is wholesale not yet a seasonal source in adding modulating water vapor to the atmosphere. This latter aspect will help keep temperature side of the T vs TD from getting out of control on .. say June 20th. We're still going observe most heat post Apr/May than during ... but, the advent of the April or May heat, from the OV to upper MA/NE region, is really a separate phenomenon to either CC, or the "standard" warmth that spreads into those areas as we work deeper into summer. This is a nuanced aspect that will likely be conflated with other factors ... improperly... by those that are not aware that this is a valid phenomenon, due to water vapor challenged being timed well with a warm 850 layer type of synoptics. Maybe we could argue that sets up more frequently now? no guess. If we go all the way back over a 100 years, there's been these separate events.

2 meter T/NAM graphics were just a non product it was so bad. Not sure what the MET had ... I seem to recall 67 at BDL ( I routinely check there, KFIT and KASH because that arc includes me), and 63 at KASH but don't quote me. I only glanced and tossed 'em. 77 was the high in town here and 76 at the Oxbow ob 2 mi as the crow flies/NWS site. bad. They may actually do better tomorrow in the d-slope.

yeah...this has been my experience with them over the years. They tend to not be significantly better than a coin flip beyond 14 days. Maaaybe some residue of usefulness very early in week 3 then seeya

So does anyone know how these multi week products are derived? You should know if you use them... heh. Kinda like oh, I dunno, AI GFS. I'm just wondering in pure speculation if these may get increasingly more climate weighted out in time.

mmm those products are suss. Not just because they are way the hell and gone out in time, either. I noticed looking at the Euro Weeklies and the Can Extended, they are showing cool anomalies precisely everywhere the climate models, and verification over the last 10 years, have been actually going the other way from late Aprils thru May. That's a bit of a creepy coincidence where these runs are targeting all the hot problem regions like that ...cooking cutting the known hot zones for cooler anomalies -

mmm. I'd say your 43 is believable

Ha...wow, add the Canadian Extended to the list... NO summer for you, ONE YEAR!

Some of the American long lead products are doing the same thing, though. heh...I've never been fan of the weeklies. Not gonna start being a fan of the CFS2v tickled shits whatever it is, either. I've found that beyond 10 days, they are not significantly more dependable than just running the regular ensembles members out to kingdom come. Until a D19 long lead is shockingly on point, I'l defer to those for entertainment

I'm actually surprised there's that much water in the air this early in the year. huh

Yeah... it really just looks like those long lead products are assuming the winter pattern never stops. I'm not necessarily offended by persistence - it is what it is. The onus is on Earth to change it. LOL Fwiw ... not that our druthers have any say in matter, but having neggie anoms in the 3rd and 4th week getting toward the arrival of he solar max isn't a terrible reality, necessarily, either.

Wonder if we're getting some d-slope compression off the ORH hills

75 ...73 at KFIT about a 7 to 10F MET bust. Brian can you confirm that?