Typhoon Tip

as we close in on 14th ... just be leery of the NAM NW bias/amplitude issues beyond 36 hours

https://phys.org/news/2025-12-hypertropical-climate-emerging-amazon-exposing.html

Fantasy range appears headed for the same CC apocalypse lol

right... 74 in Central Park, and 68 in BTV, too

LOL, the CFS from 00z is the best model of all for the 14th

If this suddenly arrives in the grids and has more physical forcing then those on-panels (above) might get 10 or 20% more meaningful to the region ( S-E). If less, the flatter versions there prevail.

right. you know, tracking that s/w's spacing back in the flow ..it's not even yet over the American owned sounding domain. I'm sure we're not exactly purchasing sounding data from Russia heh ...if they are even plumbing the skies over Siberia at all in the first place. Anyway, it's all based on assimilation. Although satellite sounding. Still, it's almost like the models assume something should be there in the flow in that spatial-temporal/geometric region, then propagating the assumption along ...at difficult to manage, ludicrous speed. Perhaps if there was better physically realized, direct sampling the handling might be more stable. I mean I suspect something like this is going on. Look at the Euro's last 4 cycles ... left to right, the most recent to 24 hours ago ( 6 hours apart). On off on off... That's been rather predictable just within that small range. Something perhaps added than missing every other run

yeah.... good way to describe. I sometimes liken as NAVGEM-ish too

It just looks cartoon resolved with that one particular metric is all. It's not one or the other, tho. It can be developed more and mashed S of CT with flurries on the Cape too.

Those solutions look over-produced with QPF to me. Just a gross linear correlation based upon experience, so tfwiw; flat 1000+ mb surface waves suffocating amid a compressed non-hydrostatic field don't have envelopes that extend so far along their northern arcs. More typically, that's a narrow band. If this AI is self-learning as it is espoused as being, I suspect that is a lessen it is about to learn.

Maybe the inevitable bump north will for once help the cause

Hey wasn’t the 14ther the same one that the GFS put out 970mb blizzard for se zones about 5 or 6 days ago

Let's start by calling the 14th a 'possible event', and leave the word threat for something that actually threatens anything haha

the guy "instructing" us why that GFS solution wasn't likely

that post reeked of self-soothing ... It was really drafted up to off-set the fear they, themselves, covet.