Typhoon Tip

How about 5" of basin rain into this pack at 55F whilst the ground beneath is still frozen mm? mmm?

I feel reasonably confident that when the February numbers are tabulated a couple of weeks from now, we'll see a repeat of this enabling layout that knee jerk triggers myopic types, that have trouble with multi-variate simultaneous awareness of reality they cannot see everyday, into more maddening evidence of compos mentis in the matter -

People should learn what indices are, what they mean. It would offer a huge manifold of knowledge, from which one may then understand operational models with better predictive skill. In this case, the indices (derived by weight the ensemble) support the emerging/ steadily increasing warm signal that we are seeing in the operationals. It doesn't mean that will go on forever until Earth's sitting on the surface of the sun... At some point the signal with "max" and or suffer daily idiosyncratic aspects not presently seen... But in principle, the totality of it would mean the end of winter and the onset of spring. Yup. Right now ... you didn't ask but I'm fine with holding hyperbole to 'melt and mud season' - use that as a basis and then add if (and we probably will have to - ) we need.

Your realize that is "10hPa", right ?

The image itself isn't likely intended to mean what the 'PV will cause', per se... It's most likely the authors just using a pic as click bate in general. Think art - But you're right. I'm willing to bet that if this society can have the "compos mentis" to believe this demon should be in charge, they can certainly be dumb enough to think that's real. But that's guaranteeing the click bate works, huh. Both ends of that are assholes.

False and/or bad information by those that don't have it right

Although the operational Euro's 12z likeness to the GFS operational is quite impressive for 260+ hours. Wow... maybe so, huh. I mean, sometimes big signals come over the temporal horizon of the modeling earlier - the underlying supporting physical circumstances have a lot of prominence in the flow. It's the same reason "Sandy", and "1993" and probably a handful of other notables of lore were also remarkably early signals that stuck around the guidance. No reason why that can't happen with heat burst synoptics. maybe. We'll see. It sort of hearkens to a climo Omega Block - more typically found in latter March and April.

I think it may be over cooked. Admittedly don't have a lot of confidence though. I've seen this in the past where these early season modeled warm bulges end up 18 hours of misty warm sector. I've literally seen a D11-14 run of 75 F days end up verifying one day of 62. What happens is the progressive footprint sped up the frontal advance 1 hour/run for week's worth until the first 2 days are claimed. Meanwhile, the wedged in BD air mass is 18 hours too fast to erode out in the guidance. No one wins: no snow; warmth gypped. This one does have the index/ens spacial synoptics backing the -PNA, so we'll see. I'm perfectly happy with melt and mud and leave it at that for now... which no one wins in that boredom either. Ha

Everyone's hedging in their posting content, as is typically the case heading into March. It's made worse now because we just clocked a blizzard near that amorphous seasonal boundary - some years more blurred than others. Right now though, folks are triggered, all ginned up for more snowy storms; certainly reticent to face the fact that models and indicators end things ... pretty abruptly really on or about the 7th or 8th. Not the 10th... not 'hopefully we can get one of these events thru the 15th' ... No one's asking for objectivity that wakes them up in the middle of their white dream but that annoying sound is the alarm clock. Again, yeah .. 'bowling' events can happen. Valid aspect/risk of New England springs. Farmer's gold blue snow. Whether that happens or not, the season ends this particular year by nature's choice on or about the 7th or 8th. Before that, these events look like seasonal coughers while the breathing shallows.

Still way out at 270 hours so tfwiw. The operational GFS is an amplified version of the persistent ens mean coverage I and others have been tracking. Whether that happens above or not... -PNA. I suspect at minimum it all means we transition into melt and mud season. Basically the dawn of spring. Relax ...it doesn't end snow chances - the return rate on end winter by mid March is something like 6 years - don't quote me; it seems that way. That means there as 82% chance it snows again? heh somepin like ghat The timing has moved in, in bulk modeling... I was thinking this was after the 10th, but it's pretty clear that once the 3/4th moves off, trends have been pushing for the Rossby roll-out prior.

Re the blizzard, it in fact made a late adjustment toward reality. It was just slightly too far NW of what actually transpired the day-ish before, and then made a 'within error expectation' bump - which is obfuscated by the fact that there was theoretical room for NW adjustments prior to that. It was a bit of journey, the total error of which - to me - was irrelevant really ... I guess I'm saying that late bump was a no fault - considering that the other global models were pretty bad until just 60 hours or even 48 hours out, comparatively. Not accounting for the rest of the winter/other events.. .just the blizzard. I was rollin' eyes and annoyed when the bump back SE triggered street trash.

NAM had 0 QPF at Logan on at least one run yesterday. NAM is NAM is NAM but just sayn'

S- est vis 1/2 mi 17F

It may not be lasting long enough ... I look over that stuff today at lunch. It seems the tropopausal depths show partial collapse but rebound within just 3 days. It's like it 'bends but doesn't break' ... hm

That was the most incredible early heat I'd ever seen. Ended just as handsomely, too - 91 to 38, 2pm to 2pm, 31st to April 1. Never to this day have I seen a BD that powerful. It was 3pm and the T on the wx lab monitor was flipping around 89 and 90, while up in CAR, ME, 50 mph gusts from the NE and something like 33F - can't recall exactly but you knew... That was the 3rd day of too... like 88, 89, 91 on Campus. So the correction was going to be felt. Pretty sure at least wet snow was on the table a week later.