Typhoon Tip

I'm not so sure that's wrong looking at the overnight ... very light NW drift is ideally moving a high heat content source right at Logan: that being Boston's urban asshole. This was probably going to be a warm urban/cooler subburb deal overnight. HFD there being 65... also ORH AP a 1000 feet above the decoupled slab of false autumn was also 65, somewhat evinces that. Boston being the biggest urban warm pig on the map with a NW to NNW gentle stenchy city fart all night might just have elevated that site anthropomorphically Also, interestingly ... the Harbor is torched. 70 F SSTs. Not sure what this compares to normal but I suspect it is warm?

One thing I wanna do when I have the free time - which I never do - is find the actual geophysically applied science to/and resulting publication(s) regarding the supposed feedbacks between the earth surface and air during the Dust Bowl era. In blunt, simple terms, I always thought that was dubious - but sort of covet that opinion more so until I see how exactly those that claim farming practices/methodology of land management can couple en masse to the extent that it causes an entire continental -scaled consequence. mmm okay. I can understand feedbacks, but that would be in part. I am suspicious of the idea that land management was the primary driver of haboob phenomenon. There are also two distinct aspects that I think folks also conflate - at least in the general discussion that seems to be suggested to me. Dust storms and heat can by mutually exclusively originating. Yes, heat aids in evaporation... so a relationship is quite obviously there. But it is also not required. Example, Gobi desert spring dust storm climo; these events are triggered by the "Mongolian Cyclone" sending strong cold winds. These events are just as bad... significantly impacting air quality and visibility in just the same exact way. I'm preeeetty sure there is no farming practices in the Gobi desert lending to creating a vast heat dome in the late winter and springtime there. Ya think If all that skepticism (and sarcasm!) is true, then that logically urges that whatever pattern synergistically aroused big heat response in 1936 was actually not holistically caused by land-air feedback as a primary mechanism. There likely was feedback modulation going on... Bad land management certainly contributed to the dust side of the discussion. But there may have been resonance in the hemisphere lending to a multi-seasonal 'pattern fractal'; a super-synoptic origin forcing a leitmotif that favored heat and drought, then undermined by bad land management. These decadal fractal in synoptic biases happen throughout history. I really feel like I need to see the wholesale science on the matter to gain an understanding of how much 'improper land management practices led to the dust storm' vs how much of that may have also just been a dry antecedent decadal signal then exacerbating dusty consequence. As far as the heat, as a Meteorologist, that starts over eastern Asia with planetary wave transmitting wave orientation across the Pacific, ultimately favoring(not favoring) a long-wave resonance over North America. All of which is preface to an idea ... that should such a resonance recur during this latter accelerating base-line trend ... I wonder what the extremes would layout like.

Btw, Europe is quickly closing on a JJA warmest ever for a second consecutive year. I'm not sure if that's on whole, or in lesser quadratures but just a-priori on the story-line to date proooobably implicates everywhere? I dunno on that per se. interesting tho

Not directed at you, Don ... so be careful with that trend line. m is not that sloped going back to 1895. If one does the d(m) they come to find that the slope is not linear. It is actually some exponential. y=x raised to some power probably less than 2 granted, but the expose' is that it is "accelerating" ... That is really a dangerous state of affairs. Because that rate of acceleration is, in itself, not deterministically constant. All the archeological climate data shows that the rate of green house fixing attributed to anthropomorphic activity has exceeded the rate of any non-human attributed fixing events, by 100x, since the last ice age - a mere second on the geological clock. That amount of change in that amount of time is unprecedented on any timescales extending back through ancient climates via paleoclimatology. Earth is behind, is what that ominously implicates. The 2023 wholesale planetary surge by nearly a half a deg C seems to evince more of a restoring, supported by observation that post the occurrence, we have yet to observe any correction back to the initial state. That strongly suggest 2023 spring was the correction! As supposition, the trend itself has been accelerating all along; that superlinearity strongly argues effecting a synergistic 'bounce'. And there is no reason to presume the 2023 correction was complete. Math's track record in forecasting how nonlinear feedbacks compound (cloud response, aerosol unmasking rate, ice-albedo timing ... non-Markovian effects on systemic return rates... etc..etc) is worse than its track record on the linear CO2-forcing terms. There are more bounces probably coming ladies and gents.

holy shizboom

short duration on the T side, huh MAV is 89/62 -like on the 06z tomorrow.

Yeah ... agreed. And the period since 1917? it so vastly dwarfs the 1850 to 1917 interval, the period after is too gorgeously obvious (and probably damning implication) to ignore. The point there is that something ( to remain nameless...) enormous must not just be forcing, but doing so massively. In geological time framing ( no less...), to impose that much acceleration, changing of the previous (1850) dynamic state at a planetary scale - You know, I keep coming back to this notion that humanity isn't terrified by this because it's so huge they can't dimensionalize the monster - so to speak. It is not helping that as a species, we are too constrained to what threats we can readily see, hear, taste, touch, and smell. If it is not directly perceivable we seem to evade detection of what we don't want to acknowledge - duh. I don't know if the person you're talking to is doing this, per se...just sayn'. Human kind needs to see an actual fire wall coming over the horizon, else it's like being scared in a movie theater. It's ephemeral because the solution is to leave the theater. The horror story stops. No longer real. If a 'threat' doesn't appeal to the senses directly, the abstraction of it seems to land psychologically in a similar way.

...a notion sullied interminably more creepy if he were say ... publishing rancid bum porn and Klondike bar was gettin busy with that, too huh

Out of left field model observation: I wonder if there's a warm burst (record?) cooking up in the models up there in Alaska around the 16th

Nearly missing an intense heat burst through the center of the CONUS as we watch it get deflected underneath. Not sure I'd celebrate that... not yet anywho - It's likely to go down that way. However, there's still some potential for a warmer correction N-NE; that the models may be too suppressed. The NAO was western limb orient/negative; so, a summer polar branch, albeit seasonally weak, being S in Canada made sense while that was taking place. The NAO is in a state of transitioning into a positive mode, though. The canonical expectation is that heights should rise and the flow becoming more zonal across SE Canada. It's unclear if the guidance et al are handling that in the 120 range. A tendency to hang too much suppression over the top of that "heat dome" expression cannot yet be ruled out. [edit, there's actually two pulses... 100 thru 120 ...then again out around D9/10; which could all merge - again - if there's any correcting] As far as the heat goes ...that looks impressive to me. 582+ hydrostats ( actual water integrated heights) means at minimum there's likely to be some massive DP ballooning S of the stationary boundary where ever that aligns. Right now it's roughly Chicago to NJ somewhere. The 850 mb index finger metric temp is 20C+ throughout, so that's likely mid 90 to 100 over 76ers. Yuck. Could be just as impressive as any heat anomaly we've seen in the CONUS this summer, despite being post solar max too. I'll tell you though ... that whole situation ... looks like a breeding ground for MCS traffic. There's QPF modeled around the Lakes ...but as it stands now, if the guidance is right about the overall synoptic structure they're likely to dive before they get this far E. Tuesday morning Quarter Backing

Seeing subtle signs of a 'back stressed' summer synopsis. Not personally ready to go 'breaking', per se. I mean solar max ends only just today. These things take time. In fact, we had cooler last month in July for a stretch. However, in the general super synoptic aspect/layout the summer polar branch of the westerlies appears to be sinking S of 50 N (~) latitude. This was not the case in July. July's cool down(s) was a pretty glaring example of cheating, a leitmotif this summer up here in the NE. This summer appeared to single out our region for repeating heat offsets - yes ...this, despite being above normal. It could have been much worse. I feel we can't go by that metric so much though, now that everything in every direction seems to sniff like Gretta-taint at this point and probably forever more... We have to judge these through a relativistic lens. Having said that, heights are also still lingering around 582 DM, a summer value by convention. Still the subtle sign is both the jet coming S a bit, but also that the next heat expansion appears situating farther S across the CONUS .. ~ 120 thru 180 or so hours. This exposes our region to more fast mid level over top flow and probably ablates heat. Also in lieu of cloud and convection traffic. Heh, like trying to set up a lemonade stand on an Interstate. Beyond that into the deeper range, general climo starts to weigh -

1.6" here looks like medium confidence for a low grade heat wave next week... Wed-Fri. 89-92/72 type

tremendous wet snow winter for upstate NY back west throughout the Lakes, and we're having a record number of STJ jacked coastals/Nor'easters of all rain. wah wah wahhh Can't keep raising the back ground then super impose a record ocean warmth and expect to keep getting timely cold. Eventually, we're getting a winter that's just too damn warm. Oh it'll snow once or twice... sure. Excluding the delusion enabler events though, p.o.s. flooder incoming?

Yeah... the synoptic forcing is weak. Hence the mere 1001 mb low. But when that's the case ( for the general readers...) that means there is less unity of physical forces occurring above and below the threshold of model grid ... the model processing only partially handles ... we end up with a dart board Subtle example of relativity ... even though the forcing/mechanics are petty, since there is nothing else to offset them, the actual rain production and impact ends up being rather high - or higher than it should be for 1001er. It also (obviously) doesn't hurt the scenario that there's a heavy PWAT in this mess. The former and this latter facets on top of each other ... viola! It was/is both difficult to pin point where, but somewhere is likely to get zonkered because the whole of it doesn't require much triggering