Typhoon Tip

Well, those two can be mutually exclusive It’s not a bad question but the baseline synopsis of the winner has been favoring, western ridge eastern trough. This has been setting up in varying degrees of amplitude and sort of shuffling around, but it in the means… has been essentially that At a basic level that correlates with warmer weather in the west and cooler weather in the east. What’s going on in Texas? Not exactly the same thing. There had to be other circumstances that fed into that. Just looking at the basic pressure pattern they are drawing Mexico plateau air d-slope across the Rio Grande … Could be a kind of a south to north pointed local regional chinook/compressional heating assist.

I wonder if some media source or the other come July 20 puts out a headline that says something like, “southern Texas was the warning we all missed”

I’m still not sure that’s equivalent Doesn’t seem like it really is It’s happened in July there more than once? I really don’t know, but that’s kind of a defining difference. This is the first time this has happened down there apparently. Hence the record. And actually… Now that I think about it that’s not defining anything really because something happens one in 10 just can have bad luck and not happen and then something that’s one in 30 can happen three times so that actually doesn’t mean shit. The other method is just look at the average high down there at this time of year and consider the departure and then look at the average low temperature up there during a climate relevant time of year and consider that departure. I guess the scaler value of the anomaly plus whether or not it has happened befor and all that jazz. That’s the other thing … might be easier circumstantially geographically/geologically up there in July then it should be down there in Texas in February which is I don’t know it all seems really dubious

I guess this La Peurta was 104F the internets getting memewhelmed with “hottest n/a winter temp ever” Has to be validated but that’s the scuttlebutt

Welp … SLK and HIE making 32 in August are not climate-relative equivalent to what’s going on down there… Just sayn’

I have know idea what’s the average first date of big heat is down there but it seems like 100 must be early.

OH yeah..ha right. 6 times then. Forgot about 2015.. although I thought that 2 foot but meh close enough Definitely an uptick in the frequency of big dawgs compared those previous decades though. man

It's interesting that 1978 and 1996 are the only two years I have in my personal log that had 30" in a single event - and I wasn't a part of the 1996. Yet, I have been proximal to the same event that has done that 4 times just since 2010. Maybe 5... If we're basing the odds of getting that on some kind of experience or climate inference, be aware of the risks.

Reposting other people's tweets is such a bore. jesus - It's not like we haven't already discussed the exact same shit, with more zeal and sophistication. Yeah. We know already

I've noticed that of the two, the AI GFS tends to warmer overall synoptics than the AI Euro by smaller to mid options.

Heh ...that thing for the 4th turned ugly on this Euro. 24 hours ago that was a moderate fast moving snower. Now it's a 48/47 misty rhea sector under a CNE transit. Yuck Rather the fucker shoot up the St L and balm.

There were two periods to this warm up... The first being a contentious argument between winter and spring that begins really Sunday and lasts trough the 9th or so. The second being an implied if not explicit very warm couple of three days between the 10th and the Ides... This 12z GFS is attempting to discontinue the latter of the two as a brand new reconstruction of the continental synopsis by the 10th.

His point has merit though. Related to, the definition of extremes is getting diminished by increasing frequency of them. Some would like to hide in the cozy euphemism that it is just cycles of nature playing out, and the gaslight of that evasion of reality is that yeah .. nature does have cycles. But excluding that denial tactic ( which is either amoral, a straight question of competent intelligence/education/etc, or a mash up of all), the frequency increase graph is matching the CC graph... sort of like a Keeling Curve for events, not CO2. haha. Nice cozy fit. 'Sides, math has already demoed that extremes increase in a d(climate). Tongue in cheek aside... you almost feel better about getting a repeat of the "extraordinary" now, than you would living in 1990.

That looks really cold Monday afternoon through Wednesday. Monday's eve is steeped in a sneaky Montreal Express; very efficient transport of low level syrup from western QUE/E Ontario. Thickness say 520 to 525 but the sounding may be more upright with the coldest, relative to normal, being the lowest 300 mb space of the sounding. It's all happening over a pan-dimensional snow pack, too. I bet we decouple and see (the season's last?) -0s lows in the interior around 4 am Tuesday morning. Might even call that the local pattern nadir, and it's rising in principle through the 10th after that.