Typhoon Tip

Looks like the operational model versions are trying to keep the circulation more progressive through this weekend. Prior thinking was -NAO type back-logs would risk stalling rhea wheels in the region or close enough to shut down a 1/2 month's worth of outdoor life. If we end up with lows getting N of us though, event if it's BN ... west wind is at least interludes where it's better.

Yeah, good point. In order to trigger MAGAt republicans, the one dimensional linear thought progression is a much more effective management tool hav to rite in littel wurds

https://theonion.com/report-every-place-on-earth-has-wrong-amount-of-water-1851544516/

All these offices incurred staffing losses when we made 'merica fuckin' awesome agin'. I'm sure SPC, being under the NOAA umbrella, are in a similar situation where top-down imposed cuts erode their abilities? That'd be my high confidence guess, considering there's been articles written about how staffing cuts lent to poorer hurricane this and that, too... It's a pervasive problem that we the mouth breathers, in order to form a more perfect union, had the audacity to believe would get us anywhere closer to a more perfect union. This facet of the times we are in ...hasn't gone away. Yet we keep having these post where we are surprised this and that. No ... we are not surprised. What we all are is disconnected, in all aspects of the reality we create at a civilization level, from the consequences of our collective actions - apparently.. This can be easily proven. Well, by this shit above... But it can be proven by the predicament of anthropomorphic -induce CC and the enabled, unabashed denialism ... which really is so detached from objective reality - well, put it this way, that same compos mentis voted a convicted felon to be president. 'Nough said. It can be proven by everything in between. This is also part of the most probable Fermi Paradox explanation, "where is everyone" ( meaning civilizations in the cosmos). Probably every advancing civilization in the universe hits this dilemma eventually. Most fail the test. The rest of the missing ... likely related to the fact that a single light year's worth of physical distance is so vast it too greatly exceeds human capacity to dimensionalize just how far that is - viable worlds are separated by too many 10s to definitely too many thousands of them. Try to imagine traveling at 183,000 miles in one second, for 4.5 years, in perpetuity - you really can't, and that's our nearest solar system neighbor. Civilizations innovate the ability to survive in this seemingly, universally constructed isolation...("agency" tongue-in-cheek), and that innovation then exceeds the background trials and tribulations of the pure biological-Darwinian requirement, -----> resting in relative affluence is unavoidable as Nature, including all life, abide the universal physical Law of Least Action. Such that the Law of Lessening Returns kicks in. Apathy and sloth take over. This creates a nonchalance to morality and virtuosity, too. This enabling to flout advice and act sort of recalcitrant to the objective reality and truth that our grand kids are less likely to survive ( ironically...), than we are, due to ecological breakdowns that apparently have to fuckin' happen before the 90th percentile dipshits admit it... won't be obvious until we all see them dropping dead. Basically ... culminating in a veritable carelessness with dad's species gun scenario. That'd be a cool scene in a sci fi cinema, whence interstellar aliens happen by our solar neighborhood and detect a world with bio-markers... so, they come check it out. What they find makes Shelley's "Ozymandia" the best metaphor to describe.

https://phys.org/news/2026-04-unprecedented-antarctic-dead-winter-decades.html (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-026-01392-x)

33 diurnal change before noon. That may be close to 3.5 hour record already.

There's an interesting techy aspect that Brian and I have monitored over the years having to do with machine/MOS numbers never seemingly able to catch up to the seasonal movement toward heat in springs. This effect doesn't appear to be as such in autumn when going colder. It has to do with MOS numbers being too low on days when the sun is very strong. MOS has a 'memory' so to speak. That memory is Climatology. It's complex though... MEX, for example, has small climate enhancing of the immediate day's values... which growns in weighting out in time. Such that D5 of that string has a ton. That is why when we look at D5 and it may say 80 for high temperature, when the climate on that day is say 60 ... that means you have a signal that must be extreme coming from the contributing model input. Because it is not only 20 points over the climate, the climate is supposed to be weighting the values from the metrically deduced numbers. That is why once in coon's age you get that 96 in April ... the MEX number on that day 5 might have been 20 points over. So MET and MAV being short term, in theory the climate weight is lower ...but it is not zero, either. It's hard to guess how much the MOS for D1 and D2 are being effected by climate weighting, but it could be the reason why these days will tend to be a degree or two colder than what actually takes place. It suspiciously seems like Climate Change might be part of the culprit. The other complication is how much so... I believe the climate in those MOS products are based on 30 year means. But those are not "running averages" ... so if the climate is improving steeply in 30 years and it is not running... and suppose the MOS day's climate weight is based up 27 year old means, then the weighting could be introducing larger error. As such ...I "think" the recent 30 year adjustment went in over the last 5 years...so we're at the earlier end, and we are definitely in a steep CC predicament. That said, the D1 and D2 are at the lower weighted end so makes the crushingly nerdy fetish of Asperger temperature watching like those idiots out there along the train track. It's a 4 line that runs 100 feet from my front door. They set up tripods and film freight trains going by. What the f is up with that! I think it's called 'train spotting' or ... ? who cares I don't care to look it up. I hate the f'n train. It's loud and disruptive. It vibrates the house on minutes after minutes worth of sometimes several times per day. They couple up and decouple half mile long screaching screaming steel on steel ending in something louder than lightning bolt 100 feet away bangs. 1.5 million metric tons of 'em, between 1 and 4 am. They've taken to parking long lines of shipping container cars, double stacked, that are holding garbage - literally garbage! And after they've sat parked under summer sun in 97 F heat ... stink of rotting vomit so vile as to challenge the very endurance of man ... they're doing a swell job at ruining life for myself, my neighbors.. the neighborhood. It's gotta be lowering property values... I mean Jesus H Christ - or lack thereof.. We've complained to the town, who's clearly getting a kick back form CGI ... otherwise we might apply for a Federal injunction of some kind. To me, it doesn't matter if the latter owns the rail. It's should be no different than house that puts on loud music on and disturbs the surrounding peace. That's not allowed!? why should corporate kuntitude be able to dump society's anal content 100 feet from our f'n front doors and walk away. So, along comes these train dweebles to appreciate fuckin' trains? Okay.

You need to suffer another 15 years of it and then you'll be as iron-hulled to it as the ships Labrador never claimed. You'll limp into port every spring surviving by the notion that 70 in May is actually a motherfucking bargain and you'll be happy. ha! If it is 70 and with more sun than cloud days ...? Shiiiii I'm calling that a relative win and a day. But yeah.. looks like in 2 weeks when the April/NASA numbers are out, the graph will again register that whether we are above normal for April or not, we will in comparison to everywhere else, be below ... every where else. Since October, 2025 we've be winning that distinction, save for one or two weak argument months. Altho... heh at any time NASA may cease to exist because of the creepy "operation silence the consilience" going on.

30th - the 4th or so still looks like -NAO frumunda' cheese though. Ooph.

Vying for the diurnal yearly record on this one. Decimals above 32 for a low, now 51 just 2 hrs later is exception. When driven purely by sun in still unmixed air that's exceptional. Normally I'd think machine guidance would be cool biased on a spring day with sun this tall and quite hot (August 15 equiv). But I was a bit surprised to see MET and MAV 68 to 70 around the BDL-FIT-ASH horn ...thinking those products would be 64 happy -NAO blue ballies. The lowest 200 feet to the ground is definitely going into a super adiabatic state, with lased ground-air conduction thermal exchange going on so despite the MOS above, 73 ping highs? Rarely get a 40 F, purely diurnal driven spread this closed to sea level yet these metrics make that look plausible. There's also likely to be a sea breeze boundary/cold wedge wobbling toward and probably somewhat beyond 495 by late afternoon. All this repeats tomorrow.

squarely above normal in a below normal pattern ?

This 18z NAM's a bit of a sneaky gem tomorrow... This run would exceed the MOS' that are based upon the 12z grids. Not by a lot... but W of the immediate coastal plain probably 62's, and a bit warmer yet in the deeper interior. With very light wind at times no wind, at this time of year/sun that's teeing off in sort sleeves.

So that we can get a winter like this last season every 8 to 11 years, otherwise, ...delude and gaslight ourselves and each other into believing we're here for snow ? pretty much - Faux I realize no one cares ... but soon as I've procured the wherewithal I'm out of here.

A lot more wrong with that than just being way out there ...

"big" may be subjective... "when" also not so clear. I'd give it the first full week of the month to be safe. Most of what we are seeing in the pattern forcing appears to be -NAO/West orienting. The index prognostics have that relaxing during the first week... The 00z Euro decided to go bonkers with a new +PNA right as that is happening, though. And that really delays and complicates the exit strategy from the -NAO. If that has legs then an unseasonable trough delays any warmer transition. We'll see. The GEFs/GFS diverge from that idea and instead go toward neutralizing most fields. If that's the case, we go back to modestly AN. It's spring. Variance headaches are typical -