Typhoon Tip

Bingo... absolutely. That's all three, GGEM, GFS and now Euro... well, they've been doing this for days actually; it's been a matter of how much or how little. If you look at that run fro 00 to 200+ hours, it is doing that I think 4 times with a wave capable of dystopian cryo hell ... getting it's nuts cut off by the blade slicing in too close on it's heals. That is why the 20th probably goes like the 18 ...and the 22nd or whatever ...etc I mean we'll see if this changes. But that 20th look there proooobably doesn't get more amped and do the NJ thing... as the forcing's leaning against because of all this

Oh I know - sorry... that sounded like I was yelling at you, huh. haha I swear I was just using that as a diatribe catapult.

I'd like to get that vort tube's trajectory off the NJ coast as opposed to LI ... If so that would be a NJ bomb model low... Like 1987 November, but a cold profile.

yeah, I'm not sure temperature's a very good proxy for driving any conclusions. Particularly, if we just step back and look a this ... I'd really suggest we are idiosyncratically warm relative to the pattern. It should be colder than has been, in simple terms. Could be caused by changing circulations and ambient thermal states of the planet ... both of which are concomitant with CC (LOL). - something is altering these states of the planet, and it is a planetary scope and scaled observation ... so that screams for a common denominator. CC being a homogeneous state is a common denominator so if the shoe fits - sorry. You know, as an aside, I think a lot of the problems people have with CC isn't the Climate part. It's that everyone and the current zeitgeist is wrongly blaming everything on climate. Change is culprit. I'd argue it is a change that doesn't appeal enough to the physical senses, nor trigger inconvenience enough but different discussion. Change is just a measure of status from before, versus now. When comparing status from 1990, to status today, utilizing the exact same method for both, a change in status is academically proven: cooler then, warmer now. Now, if people had a fucking clue how that change can and does mechanically effect circulation modes, which are ...duh duh dunnn, thus moving around a warmer atmosphere ... there probably would be a lot less of this ridiculous debate This lunacy in reticence.

Ha! I didn't wanna bring it up. You're far more courageous than I throwin such verbal stones around in this murder hornet's nest

mmm Kinda fits my homage last autumn ... and last summer, and last spring, the previous winter and the years and seasons spanning some 10 years or more ... that these mid winter wind scarped shearing neg head shit show winters have been happening regardless of all traditional indicators. ( I'd put a wink emoji here but I find them to be abhorretly annoying if not a soupcon of condescension and that's not my intent - )

I just posted similar observations about that aspect re recency of the model runs a couple posts ago... I also think that the general user that is "emotionally" triggered by this engagement needs to wait on that changing... because the sooner they accept that is needed, that will go some ways toward ameliorating their angst - and improving their moods. But hey... sometimes I wonder if that's part of the fun for them. Leaving them selves open. I dunno

and frankly, that characteristic of negative interference, in and of itself, has been the only aspect that has demonstrated solid unflappable continuity.

I'm seeing nothing but negative interference among an anomalously fast S/W succession off the NE Pacific ... effectively preventing organized cyclogenesis either in time, or not at all, right out to the end of both this 12z GGEM and GFS operational model runs. The former goes out to D10 ... the succeeding week bears no significant change in that behavior by the GFS. Not sure what is causing it, but just observing 4 major waves passing through the +PNA trough domain in just 100 or so hours worth is an overly crowded tussle creating in-harmonic dissonance

I was just given you shit - I knew what you meant, and actually don't really care other than hopefully succeeding in being an annoying word Karen lol

"It's as if the satellite's 'eyeglasses' got better and better over that period," says Elias Chereque. "It looks like there's more snow now than there used to be—but that's only because the satellite kept getting better 'prescriptions' for its glasses. It looked like there was more snow, but that's not what was happening." https://phys.org/news/2026-01-atmospheric-physicists-error-widely-cited.html https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adv7926

just keep in mind that in 2015 we still hadn’t switched the pattern by this date … … which I guess you could have said that every January 11 since 2015, but we’ve been flirting with a lot of these tall positive PNA negative EPO looks with a generalized coupled minimum over Southern Canada for the end of the month

There’s only a few weeks in a month… so basically you mean the whole month?

Probably should change this thread's title to something like 'interest has shifted to the 18th'

It's a new one. the apex of winter = the nadir of snow results.