Typhoon Tip

Goes either way ... I've seen it snow 30 straight hours at 3/4-1.5sm -S and end up with 3" of cobwebs you could move with the broom. Does that a lot around the Lakes in very frigid air...etc. I've also see that analysis be 6" overnight. Heh, it would be funny if not actually more practical to have qualifiers rmks in there like "3/4-1.5sm -S meaningless mood", or "3/4-1.5sm -S Ineedsnow trigger flake size", or "3/4-1.5sm -S; 30 hr tortoise event" etc

Hm Not sure that you do ( bold ^), because your ensemble of reply is overbearing, out of line, and looks petty - seriously ...why in the fuck are you bolding text that was completely in jest. He knows that.... chill out and go away Besides ... those are outliers. They don't represent the intent and spin of his typical attempt at overselling - so ...I'm just bustin his balls Hopefully, you are sufficiently offended now.

Ah heh. dude, you gotta do better than that gaslight attempt against someone like me. You're like a 5 year old thinking you're pullin' one over on your dad.

Those were CB's yesterday ... I noticed some of them crisp out into glaciation. The 800 mb was -2 C... which is pretty low freezing heights. Snow? no.. ha. Hail, probably. Yesterday we made it to 72 here up underneath those low freezing heights. All that was missing was CAPE. Because I'm a crushingly dweeby nerd, I hesitated in a moment coming out of Ace Hardware to be sexually aroused by a gnarly dark based CU that had a broadly expanding (est) 15kt top leaning E. It was transitioning to ice with snow falling way up there. Kind of like it was hybrid convection between cold virga CU and summer crispies. I also noticed that the base elements had a tendency to move right of the upper tier lean, indicative of some at least modest positive helicity. So given these obs... yeah... It was unstable and something was going to overachieve eventually with that sort of lapse rate in place. The cell he's talking about went by N of here and we had some 32-ish mph wind gusts and a temp crash just before sun set.

Looks like 1.5 or so hours of warming vibrant sun before CT gets cirrus plugged by that PA rollback... Hopefully this stays S-SE of an HFD-BED line so it spares the Rt 2 folk but it probably fans enough mare's tails to keep our temperatures lower here, too.

It's been 82 a small handful of early afternoons since early April... perhaps 3 with a smattering of 78s. The vast majority of times it has been less than 62 by varying sullenness. Not sure what the nocturnal biases have knocked out, but as Scott and I had noticed actually back in late March ( and still looks to be the case when cursory running down the numbers), we tend to be negative for 8 or so days back to back, then we get two 20+'s ...skewing the whole month positive. Figuratively speaking It's been a bullshit liar spring. Cold and shitty, despite sun at times and fleeting bombastic warm days. The small handful of 80 days we've seen thus far also had DPs less than 50... The dry air made them rad bleeders, tho. By the time old sol tickled the western tree tops we were already hemorrhaging. By an hour or so post the passage of the astronomical dusk boundary it plummeted to 60, and 38 by dawn. This is no way to run a real warm up and is, sorry to admit using this word which I hate ... fake. We haven't had the metallic warm feel to the atmosphere yet. It feels like warm winter days with high spring sun? Miss the evenings whence the wind is warm during the glome light period that summer lingers before the twilight. You know... pithy warmth. Doesn't even have to be hot for f'sake. Just confident your not radiating back to aching knuckles and stunted foliage. I think that changes soon enough. As I've advertised above and wasn't seemingly read by anyone heh it appears this week's the last of the gaslight pattern bs

Yesterday that looked more plausible. Today's indicators more tamed to seasonal+ But you're putting up charts that are upper 80s... as a support for your 90+ Do you see the logical problem there?

Still winter until ~ the 13.5th to the 15.3rd ... Just beyond, obvious wholesale changes to this side/continental hemisphere would likely change the correction vectors from defaulting cooler to defaulting warmer - more of a behavior argument. The actual outlook itself moves temperature needle from averaging these 64/33s, to 76/51s ish (with option for more or less depending on alpine vs lower els) in the dailies. As an afterthought ... we have enjoyed some 8 consecutive months of suppressing warmth over our local Meteorological/geography. Really since last autumn, this has been an amazing sabbatical from the responsibility to objective awareness ( LOL ). A time in which we've been enabled to forget certain tendencies ... one of which, if the pattern is 'warm', the warmth always overperforms - at least to some degree. Suppression of that specific behavior. A hint to that being the case? We've put up modest positive anomalies, despite cool pattern persistent complexions. Another interesting observation (for me) that betrays that "lie", our monthly means are less than the 2nd to 3rd warmest 8 months in Global climate history the world has enjoyed, spanning the last half year: we've been in a persistent offset region. It all goes away when the cooler hemispheric curvature biases finally decays... With the advent/onset of an aggressive ENSO guard change coinciding with seasonal change, this at least intuitively would be a good time to see that happen, and to at last escape this winter's instilled recency bias. So, with this pattern that appears to be higher confidence ( post the 15th)... that will yield warmer than the current mere seasonal look - trust me. How much so? ... yesterday there was a bit of a heat wave signal. That appears to less so for that moment - unless you're a GEPs fan, which I'm not. But life outside the resonant cool pattern of the recent year appears favored.

For the time being, and relative to date, the NH T mean has risen warmest comparing other curves in dataset for this product, https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=nh

Interesting... out of raging nerdiness I decided to ask AI ... ME: " ... yeah, I was dancing in my mind around this being sub-strata ... in other words, deeper integral than just the recency of surface - which probably is a combination of just having exited melt/thaw season, combined with lighter recent rain fall events. The only thing/concern I'd add is that we seem to be getting a lot of those yellow and orange pallets painted over our area, every spring, yet the summers don't really turn out to be terribly arid. It does at least lend to the notion that the subjective side of the debate "might" be tending to over-assess? AI: That's a sharp observation, and it's worth taking seriously rather than dismissing. What you're describing is essentially a systematic seasonal bias — if the D0/D1 classifications reliably appear over New England every spring and then fail to materialize into actual summer drought conditions, that's a reproducible pattern. And reproducible patterns in an assessment tool are worth scrutinizing. A few honest candidate explanations: The melt/thaw transition problem. You've already identified it intuitively. That window between frozen ground releasing and vegetation fully activating creates a misleading deficit signal — water is moving through the system but not in forms the indices capture cleanly as "recharge." The Atlantic moisture factor. New England's summer precipitation regime is substantially fed by Atlantic systems and convective activity that are genuinely hard to forecast into the spring assessment window. The USDM isn't a forecast — but its classifications influence public perception as though they are. The structural bias possibility. The USDM methodology was largely developed around and weighted toward interior continental and western hydrology — where snowpack-to-summer-water relationships are far more deterministic. Applying that same framework to a maritime-influenced region like New England may be a genuine methodological mismatch. That last one is the most interesting and probably the least discussed. Your region's hydrology just doesn't behave like the Colorado River basin, and if the expert judgment layer is anchored to indices that assume it does, you'd expect exactly the pattern you're describing — chronic spring over-assessment that summer rainfall quietly corrects. That's not a trivial critique." That's an interesting though by the AI, we should perhaps consider product bias over mid and western continent. Although, that would be pretty dumb come to think about it, to then out of box that for New England. hm

Fwiw, the US drought monitor folk derive their assessment as a hybridization of empirical data, together with 'expert opinions'. It's referred to as a "convergence of evidence" approach ...but, the opinion end of it does offer a subjective implication, granted. According to drought gov source, the empirical data input come from pretty basic metrics. Soil moisture, water levels in streams and lakes, snow cover ... seasonal melt water runoff ..etc., in aggregate. Those are used by USDM then homogenized together with the human/expert layer. That layer comes from both meteorologists and climatologists of the NDMC, NOAA and USDA, who take turns as lead author of the maps we see on the web site. I dunno... if it is worth it to folks who "don't believe" the product is correct, maybe these organizational reps can be contacted.

we'll see... looks so far like one of those days where the satellite always looks like it's moments away from improving sky conditions yet it's always cloudy. Relatively mild tho. Clouds not meaning mid 40s is a pleasant change. Tomorrow's the gem. At least per 06z NAM grids. That's d-slope, light wind, zero cloud, under +2 or 3C at 850 mb powdered MOS bust just add sun. Right now they are 64 to 66 around the BDL-ASH horn, but that reeks of 2 or 3 F bounce bust to me. Nice. establishing a precedence early to target butt fuck all weekends straight through to the Fall

Might be seeing the formulation of a heat wave in the D9-12 range. Obviously, given that time range this is highly speculative... but it is speculation born of recent clad trends from both the index suggestions, and these operational versions. More so the Euro and CMC, but at least ( shockingly so) the GFS is willing to let go of the winter anchoring curvature characterization of the hemisphere in lieu of more seasonally appropriate retreat of the polar jet. Anyway, the polar indices are non-interfering, whist the PNA goes negative and once into deep May+ ... any time really, but that is am early warm departure signal. CMC is a Sonoran heat release, btw Heat wave in the extended or not, there are really coherent seasonal changes occurring this week in the general tapestry of the guidance. It's always interesting to me to track these trigger weeks, year to year. They come at different times.... some years earlier or later. It's basically when blue line on the charts escape to deep Canada, and the gradient in the non-hydrostatic heights ( the other lines ) slacken in gradient. This next 60 or 72 hours could very well be the last of the frost risk trough incursions, Lakes to NE region..

Meh...it's all good. I was just annoyed in the moment because I thought I was responding to weatherwiz through you're post when it was directed at Scott... whatever. ha

This is impressive...the back edge of this denser mid/ua cloud shield which is entering western MA/CT as I type, was over the IN/OH border at dawn this morning... That's a fast flow wow.