Typhoon Tip

well, those should count. coastal's a coastal

well... snow or not, there's been no report at all this year, that I can recall anyway

Has there ever been a winter, end to end, with 0 coastals? I think we had a couple rainy coastals, tho unremarkable, last autumn. But since November say. zippo

Fire up a thread ...

There is an interesting relative max in the PNA that takes place 23-26th; it's nested in the midst of an ongoing submerged PNA. It's like a sub-surface sea mount with a buoy blinker to warn passing ships. Ha There's some other everyday reasons to suspect less coastal crawling big dawg solutions are favored, but that bold aspect about the zonal/W-E is big correction lean that's a pretty big one. Pig solutions at this D7-10 range also tend to lose amplitude as they are relayed inward in time. That's more than less an ongoing operational weather forecasting application aspect. But combining that with the former ... I tell you what, it would be fun ironic if this one fought off all those reason and worked out for the better. There is still the relative PNA spike.

That's the day before the April Fools Day massacre, 1997 sorry

they're not quite the same, but end up in the same sensible weather neighborhood.. The ICON's movie reminds me of this guy -

The 23/24 system could have some tepid support in a relative sense. On whole, very negative PNA through the entire period, doesn't normally inspire wildly spun up and anchored coastals. Certainly ... during a season where we've observed 0 productivity in coastals; persistence and trend begs to differ. Ha. However nested within, there is still a 2 to 3 day relative maxim in there. It would not be altogether crazy to observe a system moving through at that time Kind of with Ray on that... sub 980 mb lows tip-toeing around the coast line as though it were the work of some cryo-dystopian artist's white dream ...that's really is not what that signal is, however. It's 7+ days away still. There's time for the general circulation mode to alter enough - even idiosyncratically helps. But the problem with a very negative PNA is that the W-E coordinate is the correction vector. It's very heavily/statistically correlated. So it's like yeah ... a system slips through the medium, but it's favored to be more middling in amplitude, moving fast along a more E trajectory.

Talk about threading a needle ... goodness

Different wave spacing/event mechanism - when you say "also" it kinda sorta sounds like "same", whether you meant that or not. So ... just sayn' It matters, because the CMC in fact has nothing from the same prospect that the GFS designed.

yeah... been awhile since we've seen a 2" basin wide rain event into a foot of dying snow

I have... By Euro I had 'Euro product suite' in mind.

I've noticed that since these late Feb aspects have begun to emerge ... the GFS heredity of products overall are less shy about committing to spring. The Euro is trying to sell eternal storm and cold. The index/numerics of either ensemble means don't statistically support what the operational Euros have been trying to sell. Just cautioning folks... prepare to be disappointed. The upshot? if you are not, then there was no risk. it's possible the GFS is too warm, but... it has March and improving sun and CC and what have you backing the indexes, all of which suggesting otherwise.

I don't have a problem with Euro's cyclone bombing on the 23rd because it doesn't actually hit anyone. That's the other tenor of the season. Anti-coastal coagulant

Approaching 30" is just a "little" over doing it so you'd be willing to trim that back, huh haha lord