Typhoon Tip

For the time being, and relative to date, the NH T mean has risen warmest comparing other curves in dataset for this product, https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=nh

Interesting... out of raging nerdiness I decided to ask AI ... ME: " ... yeah, I was dancing in my mind around this being sub-strata ... in other words, deeper integral than just the recency of surface - which probably is a combination of just having exited melt/thaw season, combined with lighter recent rain fall events. The only thing/concern I'd add is that we seem to be getting a lot of those yellow and orange pallets painted over our area, every spring, yet the summers don't really turn out to be terribly arid. It does at least lend to the notion that the subjective side of the debate "might" be tending to over-assess? AI: That's a sharp observation, and it's worth taking seriously rather than dismissing. What you're describing is essentially a systematic seasonal bias — if the D0/D1 classifications reliably appear over New England every spring and then fail to materialize into actual summer drought conditions, that's a reproducible pattern. And reproducible patterns in an assessment tool are worth scrutinizing. A few honest candidate explanations: The melt/thaw transition problem. You've already identified it intuitively. That window between frozen ground releasing and vegetation fully activating creates a misleading deficit signal — water is moving through the system but not in forms the indices capture cleanly as "recharge." The Atlantic moisture factor. New England's summer precipitation regime is substantially fed by Atlantic systems and convective activity that are genuinely hard to forecast into the spring assessment window. The USDM isn't a forecast — but its classifications influence public perception as though they are. The structural bias possibility. The USDM methodology was largely developed around and weighted toward interior continental and western hydrology — where snowpack-to-summer-water relationships are far more deterministic. Applying that same framework to a maritime-influenced region like New England may be a genuine methodological mismatch. That last one is the most interesting and probably the least discussed. Your region's hydrology just doesn't behave like the Colorado River basin, and if the expert judgment layer is anchored to indices that assume it does, you'd expect exactly the pattern you're describing — chronic spring over-assessment that summer rainfall quietly corrects. That's not a trivial critique." That's an interesting though by the AI, we should perhaps consider product bias over mid and western continent. Although, that would be pretty dumb come to think about it, to then out of box that for New England. hm

Fwiw, the US drought monitor folk derive their assessment as a hybridization of empirical data, together with 'expert opinions'. It's referred to as a "convergence of evidence" approach ...but, the opinion end of it does offer a subjective implication, granted. According to drought gov source, the empirical data input come from pretty basic metrics. Soil moisture, water levels in streams and lakes, snow cover ... seasonal melt water runoff ..etc., in aggregate. Those are used by USDM then homogenized together with the human/expert layer. That layer comes from both meteorologists and climatologists of the NDMC, NOAA and USDA, who take turns as lead author of the maps we see on the web site. I dunno... if it is worth it to folks who "don't believe" the product is correct, maybe these organizational reps can be contacted.

we'll see... looks so far like one of those days where the satellite always looks like it's moments away from improving sky conditions yet it's always cloudy. Relatively mild tho. Clouds not meaning mid 40s is a pleasant change. Tomorrow's the gem. At least per 06z NAM grids. That's d-slope, light wind, zero cloud, under +2 or 3C at 850 mb powdered MOS bust just add sun. Right now they are 64 to 66 around the BDL-ASH horn, but that reeks of 2 or 3 F bounce bust to me. Nice. establishing a precedence early to target butt fuck all weekends straight through to the Fall

Might be seeing the formulation of a heat wave in the D9-12 range. Obviously, given that time range this is highly speculative... but it is speculation born of recent clad trends from both the index suggestions, and these operational versions. More so the Euro and CMC, but at least ( shockingly so) the GFS is willing to let go of the winter anchoring curvature characterization of the hemisphere in lieu of more seasonally appropriate retreat of the polar jet. Anyway, the polar indices are non-interfering, whist the PNA goes negative and once into deep May+ ... any time really, but that is am early warm departure signal. CMC is a Sonoran heat release, btw Heat wave in the extended or not, there are really coherent seasonal changes occurring this week in the general tapestry of the guidance. It's always interesting to me to track these trigger weeks, year to year. They come at different times.... some years earlier or later. It's basically when blue line on the charts escape to deep Canada, and the gradient in the non-hydrostatic heights ( the other lines ) slacken in gradient. This next 60 or 72 hours could very well be the last of the frost risk trough incursions, Lakes to NE region..

Meh...it's all good. I was just annoyed in the moment because I thought I was responding to weatherwiz through you're post when it was directed at Scott... whatever. ha

This is impressive...the back edge of this denser mid/ua cloud shield which is entering western MA/CT as I type, was over the IN/OH border at dawn this morning... That's a fast flow wow.

I actually don't really care but I was responding to his post ...or her, whatever and then realized it looked like I was talking about Coastalwx when I really referencing weatherwiz. at which point I become annoyed

Is there a particular reason why VORTEX95 can't seem to post anything without implicating your name in there somewhere .. Is that really your wife in disguise or something ?

Lol ... polishin' the turd? I applaud your virtue in attempting to see the bright side of a deplorable circumstance but ... my subjective opinion about today? It is has, so far, zero redemptive value. None. Nil, nothing, zilch, nadda. 44, light rain. Case closed. Does nothing to improve the background moisture deficits in any meaningful way, while simultaneously absolutely crushing any outdoor enjoyment. And ... doing so on a precious weekend day when 90+% of civility has so few days off is an extra special kind of stinky piece of shit.

Step out week ... More apt to call it a 'leap' actually wrt to seasonal migration occurs later this next week in all three popular operational versions. The ambient non hydrostatic heights are ending up elevated, post trough transits. This was not as coherent a behavior over prior weeks so I'm considering that as the next threshold-significant move. And it doesn't take till the 20th of the month either. The modulation actually begins 13th..15th. In fact, the overnight GFS run subtly ends up with a static 582 dm height contour aligning roughly IND-BOS, positioning the mean polar jet clearly N of the conus for multiple days beyond. The 06z tries to even heat wave prior to what's likely a faux default erosion out there at 320+.

18 ZGFS has a a monster ridge at the end of that run

Yeah, I don’t mean to come across all instructional . I’m actually just sick of it frankly ha ha I make it no secret that I am equally interested in summer weather phenomenon, just as I am about deep winter phenomenon “in the winter” …not when it’s May and the pattern tries to act like it’s winter. fuck that. Anyway, I track and study the synoptics of heat waves and so forth. It’s just something I’m interested in Man. I realize we’re in the minority here those of us that like summer phenomenon. Convection being part of all that, etc..

Well no, nothing "extravagant" ... let's just start with ceasing the SPV reload up in Canada, along with a more seasonal relaxation of the polar jet which has remained active now later than normal. Relaxing those two would probably jolt our temperatures by 15+ F in the baseline mean, which ... might actually seem pricey when there's mid/late May sun upright hammering down.