Typhoon Tip

we'll see... looks so far like one of those days where the satellite always looks like it's moments away from improving sky conditions yet it's always cloudy. Relatively mild tho. Clouds not meaning mid 40s is a pleasant change. Tomorrow's the gem. At least per 06z NAM grids. That's d-slope, light wind, zero cloud, under +2 or 3C at 850 mb powdered MOS bust just add sun. Right now they are 64 to 66 around the BDL-ASH horn, but that reeks of 2 or 3 F bounce bust to me. Nice. establishing a precedence early to target butt fuck all weekends straight through to the Fall

Might be seeing the formulation of a heat wave in the D9-12 range. Obviously, given that time range this is highly speculative... but it is speculation born of recent clad trends from both the index suggestions, and these operational versions. More so the Euro and CMC, but at least ( shockingly so) the GFS is willing to let go of the winter anchoring curvature characterization of the hemisphere in lieu of more seasonally appropriate retreat of the polar jet. Anyway, the polar indices are non-interfering, whist the PNA goes negative and once into deep May+ ... any time really, but that is am early warm departure signal. CMC is a Sonoran heat release, btw Heat wave in the extended or not, there are really coherent seasonal changes occurring this week in the general tapestry of the guidance. It's always interesting to me to track these trigger weeks, year to year. They come at different times.... some years earlier or later. It's basically when blue line on the charts escape to deep Canada, and the gradient in the non-hydrostatic heights ( the other lines ) slacken in gradient. This next 60 or 72 hours could very well be the last of the frost risk trough incursions, Lakes to NE region..

Meh...it's all good. I was just annoyed in the moment because I thought I was responding to weatherwiz through you're post when it was directed at Scott... whatever. ha

This is impressive...the back edge of this denser mid/ua cloud shield which is entering western MA/CT as I type, was over the IN/OH border at dawn this morning... That's a fast flow wow.

I actually don't really care but I was responding to his post ...or her, whatever and then realized it looked like I was talking about Coastalwx when I really referencing weatherwiz. at which point I become annoyed

Is there a particular reason why VORTEX95 can't seem to post anything without implicating your name in there somewhere .. Is that really your wife in disguise or something ?

Lol ... polishin' the turd? I applaud your virtue in attempting to see the bright side of a deplorable circumstance but ... my subjective opinion about today? It is has, so far, zero redemptive value. None. Nil, nothing, zilch, nadda. 44, light rain. Case closed. Does nothing to improve the background moisture deficits in any meaningful way, while simultaneously absolutely crushing any outdoor enjoyment. And ... doing so on a precious weekend day when 90+% of civility has so few days off is an extra special kind of stinky piece of shit.

Step out week ... More apt to call it a 'leap' actually wrt to seasonal migration occurs later this next week in all three popular operational versions. The ambient non hydrostatic heights are ending up elevated, post trough transits. This was not as coherent a behavior over prior weeks so I'm considering that as the next threshold-significant move. And it doesn't take till the 20th of the month either. The modulation actually begins 13th..15th. In fact, the overnight GFS run subtly ends up with a static 582 dm height contour aligning roughly IND-BOS, positioning the mean polar jet clearly N of the conus for multiple days beyond. The 06z tries to even heat wave prior to what's likely a faux default erosion out there at 320+.

18 ZGFS has a a monster ridge at the end of that run

Yeah, I don’t mean to come across all instructional . I’m actually just sick of it frankly ha ha I make it no secret that I am equally interested in summer weather phenomenon, just as I am about deep winter phenomenon “in the winter” …not when it’s May and the pattern tries to act like it’s winter. fuck that. Anyway, I track and study the synoptics of heat waves and so forth. It’s just something I’m interested in Man. I realize we’re in the minority here those of us that like summer phenomenon. Convection being part of all that, etc..

Well no, nothing "extravagant" ... let's just start with ceasing the SPV reload up in Canada, along with a more seasonal relaxation of the polar jet which has remained active now later than normal. Relaxing those two would probably jolt our temperatures by 15+ F in the baseline mean, which ... might actually seem pricey when there's mid/late May sun upright hammering down.

Not sure what your after here? but ensemble means will invariably look blase'. They're comprised of some 50 members, the vaster majority of which will not only be wrong, but are likely to bring a solution that is outside a small tolerance window - averaging those wrong solutions in with 2 or 3 good ones leaves you with something other than a narrow tolerance that fits whatever you're looking for. That's why if ensemble members look good at an extended lead that's more ominous, because it means the physical signals are loud enough to be picked up by more and more members. It kind of goes both ways, too. If the ensemble means are shitty, but the operational run is good ...particularly at longer leads, you have to take the operational run with a grain of salt that it may be too amplified.

yeah, I mentioned it a few days ago too. Thing is, .... ugh this is gonna turn some eyes but we're getting some of this seasonal lag business that was papered. It's more and less evidenced year to year. It's because of CC's speeding up of the jet stream in recency. It lends to extending the wave lengths deeper into the springs, which causes the aberrant cool "excursions" - the paper refers to these as unseasonable jet meanders. In winter as well, with unusually deep cold intrusions to mid latitudes, setting up very extreme temperature gradients which in turn speeds up the jets... It's a status of where we are, not necessarily where we are heading in the grand scheme of things... Sensibly it's well footed. There's also empirical data. I can tell you more than merely anecdotally, prior to 2000 I observed snow between Kalamazoo MI and Boston MA, twice in 31 years. Since? about 1/3 to 2/5ths of the years have had snow in May or an atmosphere supportive of snow at the synoptic scale/mass. This is also true at the other end of the dial in autumns. Where I'm going is two fold: A, this lending to a kind of forgetfulness about where things could be if this were not taking place. It's no one's fault per se. We get conditioned/acclimated... But really we've been colder than the back ground since last autumn, and now the jet is meandered to extend things further - that's what this really looks like... -refer to annotated post I provided several hours ago. That is an anachronistic SPV B, when does this break down? The hints we're seeing may be seeing the end.

I'm wondering if this rain for tomorrow ends up being more like a 3,500' evap level virga sky