Typhoon Tip

https://www.instagram.com/p/DP7WF2EE2Tz/?igsh=aDlqZ3hmMjNxdzRx

Seeing as some of you spend a lot of time engaged in the ongoing monitoring/analysis and application of ENSO this that and the other ... this and studies like this may be of interest to y'all https://phys.org/news/2025-10-climate-whiplash-effects-due-rapidly.html ( forward, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-64619-0 ) ...In the case of this study above, immediately "precipitates" ( haha) the implication of losing predictive skill - particularly in deference to long lead seasonal outlooks where ENSO is factored, it really severely hinders that usefulness.

https://phys.org/news/2025-10-climate-uk-2c.html

It depends what is meant by the bold ( for me - ) Snow advances ... that's just seasonally unavoidable. But, not all years observe this normalcy the same way. They all tend ( or used to before perhaps 25 years ago), end up around the same cryospheric state by mid Februaries ... but the autumnal d(cryo)/dt (speed of recovery) I have found is more correlated to ensuing winter temperature biases over Canada ( and by circumstance of proximity ... affecting the U.S.) Faster tended to be colder Mt-WI-NY-NS Slower tended to be more variable .. ( don't wanna say "warm" here because that word is very relative circa Jan 25th at Tower Minnesota) So stating the obvious... cold is intrinsic to snow. Gee ya think- But what's interesting about this is that the correlation has been not as good over the last decade ... It's complex, but I suspect the warming polar summer states are setting up favorable frameworks more abruptly during recovery times - going for deeper lows to any snow at all... so it's artificially ( so to speak...) lending to impressive d(cryo)/dt. ... Like everything being effected by the CC one-eyed monster, the predictability of any domain in question tends to be the first aspects to get f'ed. So the simplest version of all this, yes the d(cryo)/dt is impressive, this year, but - for me - it could be construed as more impressive in say, 1995 than it really is in 2025. *But* ( ... to add even more to this "popcycle" headache - ), it's not just the land snow. I noticed, back mid to late August that that the rate of sea-ice loss was slowing more so than the last several years, relative to dates... That was unexpected, particularly when we just came off the 2023 oceanic jacuzzi historic year so recently. Interesting... Anyway, the seasonal nadir appeared to also happen about 10 days to 2 weeks earlier than the last several years ( using Climate Reanalyzer), and has shown also that seasonal recovery behaves to do so more meaningfully, sooner and perhaps faster. This below is an example of how the scalar value, still being low, belies the character/behavior of the system, which is perhaps better exposed by evaluating the deltas. So adding all this to the other aspects farther above ... mmm, I'm at least curious if the wholesale hemisphere is hinting here.

Not to toot horns or anything but ... I remember posting back in spring that I thought this season would be challenged. The reasoning cited was because of the - wait for it! - expanded HC phenomenon. Not just endemic to this season ... it's all summers going forward until the phenomenon historically reverses - when humanity goes extinct and is no longer terraforming the world ... but that's another debate altogether. I think we can still get the higher end predictive quotas... but TC life behaviors are that they tend to spin up faster, and can reach big intensity, but also don't last as long because of what's going on in the paragraph below... See ... ( just in case one person is actually interested - ), an expanded HC is not a stronger HC. It is a weaker one. The more it expands, the less identity it has as an actual circulation. It starts to fracture... More trough meanders and TUTT riddled. This both lowers the probability that an MDR transport makes it that far before encountering either a polarward steering interference, or an enhanced shear. Looking back at this season and well ... it seems pretty clear that both those circumstances were observed as being particularly interfering. Maybe I just got lucky with this overall idea? but I don't think so.

https://phys.org/news/2025-10-seas-cities-coastal-crisis-china.html

yeah no that's the one. 2010... meh, 2013 .. 2010 ...it's all one big blur

We had a weird Nor'easter coastal in that era ... 2013 or so, whence NE Ma and SE Nh suffered a tropospheric fold event ... unusual because that typically happens on the SW/underside where the stinger is identified on sat and rad. This was in the CCB tube; there were like 70 mph wind gusts doing a lot of power line and tree pruning work .... it was all rain tho. Late February too - man... a CCB with a tropospheric fold embedded - magine if that were snow? heh, probably couldn't

I wouldn't know anything about Accuweather bias, nor their forecast philosophies ... but a pathway to a low snow turn out whilst normal temp for our region could be related to an anomalously warm mid level plague - which in fact, we don't exactly live and breath in an Earth era that's short of reasons to see something like that occurring. just sayn I'm not forecasting that but Devil's advocate.

It gets easier to stagnate the diurnal temperature range in October ... particularly so once in the solar minimum, Nov 8 and beyond. The sloping sun is oblique to cloud coverage and that's not very efficient radiative-thermal modulation with that low incidence.

Kerry Emanuel, el al, MIT describe the Polar Low phenomenon in a paper titled, "Polar Lows as Arctic Hurricanes" The abstract alone is geek's one-eyed monster worthy stuff ... "Satellite observations of the polar oceans have revealed the presence of small, intense vortices that often resemble hurricanes, having clear central eyes surrounded by deep convective clouds. Recent aircraft and drop sonde data also show that these storms, like hurricanes, occur within deep moist adiabatic atmospheres and possess warm cores...." ( oh baby; don't forget the step children) I recall back in 2002, the GGEM of that era had a propensity for fusing, or threatening to do so, CAG originating TC ejecta up along the barolcinic wall east of strong +PNAP trough amplifications ( ... that's code for Mr Margrave's chart up there in this thread...). Anyway, Sandy alllllmost succeeded, but I wonder if Sandy teaches us, before ever observing the Sci Fi hyper bomb to best all fantasies, just how hard it is to actually get that to happen. Purely statistical occurrence, Sandy was something like a 1::500 year eturn rate ... does that grossly mean a purer performing phase is 1:1000? ...10,000? But that excerpt from Kerry's paper above, does lend some intrigue. If the thermodynamics in the tropical cyclone are some how comparable in the internal engine of the arctic variant, is it ever possible to go directly from a TC end of the spectrum right to the arctic end, in some kind of fantastic transition event? It may be one of those deals where it is mathematically possible, but practically so improbable due to everything that has to happen right in precise non-negative interfering order, that it is too unlikely to ever actually be observed. Still ... man. How would that look... and would it be mathematically possible to constrain George from blowing a gasket if that was like in the model movies (now that would be bombogenesis). Either way, that above is not really that. It's not cold enough... What that would do is just transition, albeit rapidly, from a TC into either an ETC. Or, it gets sheared and pulled apart like a star wondering too close to black hole ...getting absorbed into an ongoing ETC genesis.

I was wondering if that's an artifact of the pattern changing in and of itself, or seasonal forced reconstruction - so to speak There's probably no difference there. So long as the pattern changes.. But the flow behavior in the modeling cinemas looks more charged, sped up with wave propagations that have real gradient. It's come on sort of sneaky over the last week, but now is much more coherent and raging going forward. Heh. It's almost like it's not so much a "dry to wet" pattern change, as it is a wholesale systemic change where getting more rain is intrinsic. Being that it is October and no longer July well...

Not sure I agree here... We ARE in a catastrophe, a slow moving one. Too slow to be seen in what we call "real time", or human perception, but that slowness only beguiles us into a false sense of lessening urgency. Don and I ( and any others et al) have been discussing about the limitations in the biology of all Terran life ( for that matter -): for all species, urgency is aroused by what their senses are telling them. Human beings, as far as can be empirically tested, are the only life forms on this planet capable of prognosticating doom or boon based upon projection. But we still procrastinate, if not outright disregard those forecasts when the evidences are not directly appealing as such. You know ... what can be seen, heard, smell, tasted., or touched. The tree does fall in the woods whether anyone is around to see it happen or not, and in this case... it's particularly bad because the proverbial tree is falling right in front of us, yet is unseen. But it's still falling