Typhoon Tip

In the end ... should the ECM/UKMET and any other east and/or smearing solutions prevail, the indices would have nailed this. From the get go, going back 10 days, the -PNA was establishing. It was actually partial ( at least) in discussion regarding warmth after the 15th. That's delayed ( perhaps ...). In fact, the operational pattern handling never really expanded the warmth as much as the indexes would statistically correlate, but there's always negotiation room. What we got out of that so far was a yesterday rain bust at 37 F. Where's my beach chair! 7 days ago when this started hinting, then getting pimped, I warned early on that deep lows crawling up the coast was not supported. The only reason this started getting more attention from me, is because there is a relative max in the PNA, while on whole, it's negative. The thing with the PNA domain is that it is very, very geographically large. One end of it can be positive(negative) and it may skew realities at the other end. So when seeing this, therein is room to negotiate an event, It's rising some 3 or 4 SD in three days there among the Can/Euro/U.S. clusters ... So, we'll see how the "negotiations" go.

It's an interesting time-dependent bust study. Relative to the 96-108 hour, if the Euro is right vs the GFS. For us that difference probably doesn't survive modern attention span's failing myelination and memory fixing ( LOL ), but down in the MA... talking the difference between a mere snow day vs regional halting of all civil modes. So for a D4.5 window, one of these models could bust impressively badly. heh. A compromise (mid way) impactor probably is sensible, but like I was describing earlier... this whole situation has a greater than normal short term adjustment potential to it. Whether that happens, remains to be seen, but the reason for that is notable differences, small yet crucial, are creating massive variance down stream - talking about the handling and identification/physical processing thereafter, with the ejection out of the Pacific/general W.

What ?

The last 3 consecutive runs of the CMC were progressively less

It's not extremely rare. Many massive events clipped shy of getting this far N. Just being fair

First time I've seen the sun succeed at 'eating' a morning cloud layer back quite so obviously. Almost 40, no wind ... kind of napey out there. It occurs to me that this thing coming up tomorrow night, is p-type a matter of contention? That sort of doomed the last thing, in that the BL was 3 to 5 too cold in the guidance.

The only issue I have with this analysis is that it negates ( or just doesn't consider) trend. Trend doesn't stop at the scalar moment of the modeling image. It implies 'reality' is moving toward a different destination than the still frame. Very important consideration in deterministic philosophy in this bidness. In this case, there's been a persistent ..albeit slow, trend NW recently. And there is also a little bit of reservation one could apply to your analysis in that these tools are not confidence-weighted evenly. There is situational awareness and bias that are unique to some guidance. So your blend approach isn't terrible ... it's actually rather good. But, we have to be careful because the application of that cannot drop trend, nor being aware of the constituent member's individual contribution.

Seems like the models are hedging. It's like two ticks NW, then 1 tick SE... and summing all those up you have a painfully slowly, albeit it not enough, trend NW - so far. Just a behavioral ob re the total modeling with this over the last day, the significance of which notwithstanding. The sum total is that we are about as on the fence as we can be at this point. If this tips 50 mi NW in the mean of all, we have a solid high end WWA E of CEF-ASH, with warning S-E of PVD. Probably BW on the Cape just from the shear ferocity of what almost has to gust to 70 jesus. If it goes 50 mi SE, cirrus and wind with WWA on the Cape. It's like go up or down from there. But we're at 108 hours. Typically, we're narrowing goal posts by now. We'll have a few straggling posters that think we'll get a big move <100 hrs, but that actually doesn't occur as often in 2026. However, I agree with whom ever said 'rug pull' awhile ago; this appears to have a higher than typical potential for a short term correction, however that's in either direction. I think there's chance for shorter term bounce NW, just because we have a bit of an unusually noisy situation out west. It is anomalously complex. I noticed at 36-42 hours, the GFS has a spurious almost nondescript beta scaled S/W/jet streak coming in over S Cali...this sucker is a bottle rocket. FF FTW? It whips over the 4 Corners, across the deep south, it catches up to and slices over the b-c potential over EC. The GFS appears to use that for a quicker cyclone response ... the wholesale trough amplifying then takes over. Cut to a 970 mb low that the Euro, because it doesn't apparently see this feature, doesn't end up with - in fact, the Euro doesn't appear to even see this jet streak (right) in the first place. Now, I don't know why that is...or if the GFS is full of shit, or if it is the other way, and the Euro's data smoothing thing might be killing it? But it is quite easy to miss that all but undefinable difference between those two cinemas. Ending up in a profound difference out in time. SO, if that triggering jet feature is - after all- under assessed by 10% while at the same time, all guidance get a dose of it via physically realized soundings and so forth... we get a total correction NW with a monster. If it comes in more invisible, we collapse E. It would also be helpful to this whole ordeal if the models would jack the western heights more. There is a relative maxim in the PNA that has materialized over the last week in the indices, but it's just lacking that much. ugh.

mm not really. It's 5 days away

That really does give one pause in dismissing this... That 'bump' ridge there in Ontario, is actually REX block - it's just less obvious for being weak. The key is actually the Maritime low, because between said REX block and that low, that is a huuuge mangus ton of wave mechanics that has to go some where, when it winds up underneath those two. It's going break on the Del Marva in that progression/extrapolation. If you look at the Euro's 12z run for that same interval above, you can see what it's doing differently ... It's placing the emphasis on the 2nd S/W feature up there in Manitoba. That little piece of shit above, is a massive S/W in the Euro ...but it's not good. It's in a different phase wrt the total continental wave spacing. The lead needs to be the one, which is what the GFS/CMC ... well most other guidance was doing at 12z ... It's why I'm still 50/50. I only admit that the Euro is physically possible - I need to see this whole mess at 84 hours frankly.

That's no moon. It's an addiction

Teachable moment in CC ...we've moved the needle into a realm where we don't snow unless there is a direct coverage/ongoing insert of cold anomaly. Welcome to NJ Might be related to why this winter is leaving and/or left so much on the table as far as threat failures. It's because in order to be said cold, means the flows is compressed and inherently neg interfering. Now that the hornet's nest is sufficiently poked, I'll check back in later for some laughs.

Just add 'the models' to the list and be done with it.

Don't believe the stratosphere's been very well correlated beyond coincidence this season and that will remain that way through spring. We may in fact cool down/endure another cold loading into the continent, either way. So it's moot. The EPO is pretty clearly trying to dip neggie for about 3-5 day span - new index indication that's materialized over these recent last three days of prognostics. When/if so, I don't think keeping the cold W in -EPOs is our problem, not with the flow finding least excuse imagined to consummately speed up, if not speed up ...stretch wave lengths. One of those two appears to always exert ... since about 2010 ( actually, I argue the traces of that begin in the super NINO of 1998 but different discussion). So yeah...the early notions of busting out after the 24th (miss?) are probably going to have to be a roll-back on that idea.

This is the warm up after the 15th ... a 37 F WWA cancellation - priceless