Typhoon Tip

I can see/sense Brian's complaint on that. A cursory scan of the higher res vis satellite eyeballs an ~ 50 to 80% vs 50 to 20% cloud obstruction, yet you seem to be majority shaded over your neighborhood.

All the runs seem light on Mon/Tue. The GFS is spuriously cooling the 850 mb between 15 and 21Z on Monday, between the Presidential Range and D.E.M., extending barely +10C down into interior SNE. There is no reason or cause that can be synoptically identified to do that. Meanwhile, the CMC has even lower ceiling level RH values, with no means to cool the 850mb ...but opts to keep the BL less mixed and (apparently) doesn't think the sun's strong enough to make the difference there - which is suss because if it is right about a hotter Sunday, the night's going to be elevated some ...setting up a higher Monday launch. So not likely on that - I didn't venture into the Euro ...I just figured it's upper 70s under general 566 to 570 dm hydrostats must be the conspiracy to hide CC from the model outputs showing up. haha.

I thought it interesting ( albeit likely esoteric ) that the CMC bursts into the mid 80s on Sunday. It has 85 at 18z BDL-to Lawrence MA. I was looking that 850s on all three and thinking that given lower ceiling RH/sigma level values ( meaning more sun), WNW wind and now solar max power lasing the countryside, those 73-75's looked a little cool in the Euro and GFS. Rarely are we faced with a circumstance where a D5 looks more reasonable in a CMC model run. heh. I don't know about 85s but I could see the Eur/GFS 2-ms being a bit light there. The difference is the CMC is warmer at 850 ...seems to be trying to commit to the early week continental delivery scenario, earlier. So yeah, the others may be couple warmer, and if the CMC ends up right ...the former will end more substantially so.

I was just coming in here to wax the virtue of that synoptic look on Saturday, ...opened the app, this was the first sentence I saw ^ Yeah... sensory overload. Top 3 day... perhaps taking first place - though it's early in the race. It feels like a trophy though; hard to top 74, light wind, lilac aroma sun-gasm weather. That's on the backside of the weak nor'easter/closed but still progressive circulation thing later Thur into Fri ( I know you're aware of all that... just sayn' ). It's a sign of the times, signifying having finally escaped the cold breeze hangover pattern. It seems the oscillation behavior that comes with will be mild to warm to mild to warm as opposed to cool to mild... with one or two CC exaggerated days mixed in.

The whole 2m philosophy needs a make-over. It's abysmal. That over mixing thing is a separate error to the under-sold high temps that happen in the actual heat wave. It's like errors in both directions are true. weird. It seems... beyond the late short range the model mixing is over proficient... but as it comes into shorter vision, the model corrects but then it just assigns the sfc sigma as 1000 mb level and calls that the 2m. There's a new error anyway, world over, having to do with this new phenomenon surrounding 'synergistic heat waves' - they exceed everything. We've talked about this in the past... There's been several between Iberian Penn as far N as London. Australia. Siberia... the steppe country near the Urals over the hills into Moscow. The Pacific NW... "sort of" 2012 in the lower OV - it tried to get in here but was cut off by a corrective derecho that pretty much undermind the ridge for everyone. These are a different thing altogether where nothing gets them right because they are literally synergistically created - like emergent properties where the temp just runs away beyond all convection means of forecasting, machine to man. I don't think there was very many this last year but it was a reasonably well-coupled cool ENSO mode so that maybe has some capping aspect. But oh gee, guess what ...we're heading into super dong.

Hopefully we can lay down 2 to 3" of basin coverage from that nor'easter on Thursday ...

Man.. can't wait for this winter to finally be over -

Finally ... a chart that agrees with your sentiment from earlier - nice !

Goes either way ... I've seen it snow 30 straight hours at 3/4-1.5sm -S and end up with 3" of cobwebs you could move with the broom. Does that a lot around the Lakes in very frigid air...etc. I've also see that analysis be 6" overnight. Heh, it would be funny if not actually more practical to have qualifiers rmks in there like "3/4-1.5sm -S meaningless mood", or "3/4-1.5sm -S Ineedsnow trigger flake size", or "3/4-1.5sm -S; 30 hr tortoise event" etc

Hm Not sure that you do ( bold ^), because your ensemble of reply is overbearing, out of line, and looks petty - seriously ...why in the fuck are you bolding text that was completely in jest. He knows that.... chill out and go away Besides ... those are outliers. They don't represent the intent and spin of his typical attempt at overselling - so ...I'm just bustin his balls Hopefully, you are sufficiently offended now.

Ah heh. dude, you gotta do better than that gaslight attempt against someone like me. You're like a 5 year old thinking you're pullin' one over on your dad.

Those were CB's yesterday ... I noticed some of them crisp out into glaciation. The 800 mb was -2 C... which is pretty low freezing heights. Snow? no.. ha. Hail, probably. Yesterday we made it to 72 here up underneath those low freezing heights. All that was missing was CAPE. Because I'm a crushingly dweeby nerd, I hesitated in a moment coming out of Ace Hardware to be sexually aroused by a gnarly dark based CU that had a broadly expanding (est) 15kt top leaning E. It was transitioning to ice with snow falling way up there. Kind of like it was hybrid convection between cold virga CU and summer crispies. I also noticed that the base elements had a tendency to move right of the upper tier lean, indicative of some at least modest positive helicity. So given these obs... yeah... It was unstable and something was going to overachieve eventually with that sort of lapse rate in place. The cell he's talking about went by N of here and we had some 32-ish mph wind gusts and a temp crash just before sun set.

Looks like 1.5 or so hours of warming vibrant sun before CT gets cirrus plugged by that PA rollback... Hopefully this stays S-SE of an HFD-BED line so it spares the Rt 2 folk but it probably fans enough mare's tails to keep our temperatures lower here, too.

It's been 82 a small handful of early afternoons since early April... perhaps 3 with a smattering of 78s. The vast majority of times it has been less than 62 by varying sullenness. Not sure what the nocturnal biases have knocked out, but as Scott and I had noticed actually back in late March ( and still looks to be the case when cursory running down the numbers), we tend to be negative for 8 or so days back to back, then we get two 20+'s ...skewing the whole month positive. Figuratively speaking It's been a bullshit liar spring. Cold and shitty, despite sun at times and fleeting bombastic warm days. The small handful of 80 days we've seen thus far also had DPs less than 50... The dry air made them rad bleeders, tho. By the time old sol tickled the western tree tops we were already hemorrhaging. By an hour or so post the passage of the astronomical dusk boundary it plummeted to 60, and 38 by dawn. This is no way to run a real warm up and is, sorry to admit using this word which I hate ... fake. We haven't had the metallic warm feel to the atmosphere yet. It feels like warm winter days with high spring sun? Miss the evenings whence the wind is warm during the glome light period that summer lingers before the twilight. You know... pithy warmth. Doesn't even have to be hot for f'sake. Just confident your not radiating back to aching knuckles and stunted foliage. I think that changes soon enough. As I've advertised above and wasn't seemingly read by anyone heh it appears this week's the last of the gaslight pattern bs

Yesterday that looked more plausible. Today's indicators more tamed to seasonal+ But you're putting up charts that are upper 80s... as a support for your 90+ Do you see the logical problem there?