Typhoon Tip

rgem with a bd too

That is a nasty nasty BD on the NAM... has Boston plummeting to the upper 30s on Wed ... 24 hour ahead of the main front. It's probably got boundary layer lag bias. It's the same reason why it can't warm the BL sufficiently at this time of year in general - today, etc..; they've sort of designed a model that over assesses the Ekman stuff. That said... it's also hard to argue BDs in eastern NE at any time of year, let alone f'um March.

60! warmest it's been since sometime in autumn

54 at Worcester... 39 at Fitchburg

Looks on vis loop like terrain induced, then venting down stream. Probably just needs the sun to work on the tow source and then it will dry out?

Perfect maple weather last night... Cold, then recovering for a sunny mild afternoon. My sis lives on 40 acres up in Winchendon and says the sap's flowin' Buckets are drippin good flow rates. Despite the impression of still biology out there, life is showing signs.

That's not what I said so don't "yup" me... haha. I said the NAM may not be right about the magnitude. I also said the NAM could be wrong about the absolute wind direction - if it's more 240 than indirect cooling is likelier confined to SE zones. The NAM is right to cool the air mass that passes over the Bite water region NE of Jersey, in general

In principle the NAM isn't wrong there. It may not be correct about the degree/offset, but if the wind is well mixing and actively SSW across the area ... that's sourced from the very cold Bite waters. It's a matter of how much. If the vector's more 240 it'll be confined to SE zones.

MAV nailed the 20s ... I was doubting that but nice job there Equally handsome could be the recovery ... if so, one of if not the greatest of the year. possible 40 F +

Yeah, I’m not talking about the run itself. I’m just what my thoughts are on that period.

I’d call it an average winter regression I also suspect it’ll probably be not as amplified as that too. Also probably something like five days that sort of fades… That’s going by the indices, but deamplifying some partial has both an established precedence in mid and long range models, as well as fitting the climate of sun getting hotter. But yeah, folks are looking for a last hurrah I would look at that five day window.

+That bold statement of yours is the very reason the world should be very afraid. It still does not resonate enough with people that enormity of raising an entire planetary system, air, sea and air-sea coupled, unilaterally, by a whole degree C, over span of time that is virtually instant in geological scales - but frankly, disturbingly fast even for the single life span of a human being. If that can happen without warning and those zero extrapolated expectation, ... good luck

An indirect way to tell that your above normal temperatures might be these MOS products. It seems the MAV is whack? it's got KBDL-FIT-ASH all in 25-ish for a low tonight. With 45 to 50 F diurnals tomorrow. That seems a little off

It's that window in the indices there... pretty sweet looking solution.

Melt and mud season... Agreed. We lost something like 6" since yesterday just eye-balling. It'd say we have about 7 of granular corn snow left. It's possible we've eradicated enough snow in the next 48 hours to allow Tuesday to not be held down from that factor.