Typhoon Tip

right- and part of my reason for mentioning is because there've been pretty much 0 milder weekend days, so far. as far as i can personally recall that is. All the warm/ish anomalies have been week days. Looking for the first no-snow-on-ground 70 F day with light wind on the weekend

Saturday was looked upper tier on the 00z Euro but you're not asking ... heh

You had to know/suspect that this particular spring would have a preponderance of these BD headaches.

In that solution/depiction? No, CT definitely porked too. Matter of how many inches haha.

12z NAM has a vicious W-E aligned frontal boundary on Wednesday ... It tries to get the region damn close to even freezing rain metro west of Boston. The FOUS grid has 0,0,+3 over Logan, which academically means 0C at the SFC. It's probably more like 32.9 It's all coming down to where to place this stationary boundary. The cold side is prooobably being over assessed ( NAM) in this case, but... in principle, we're still looking easily at 40+ deg F of variance across 100 miles or less with this set up -

00z guidance attempting to lure warm enthusiast into a set up ... muah hahaha I grew up in the ... antiquities of modeling yester-lore ( eh hm), and recall a day and times when if there were ever a BD on the chart near Maine... the verification snows in Atlanta Georgia. No not literally ..but if figuratively/sarcastically. Point being, the models were just inadequate in handling them, particularly because the physics for the lower BL was still being evolved, as well ... the modeling tech was intrinsically having very low resolution/grid point evaluation density when processing. Those limitations meant that BDs, being almost entirely in the lowest 250 mb of troposphere, were only quasi detectable. like hinted at ? Now, huge improvements in the wholesale modeling, from input density/grid resolution, to improvements in various BL assumptions in the baseline physical equations means that the models at least know that there is a BD on the map with far better coherence. They're even improving on the position of them, per interval. Having said that... those ancient early life abuses don't set me up very well for mature adult relationships with models - I tend to still be relationship avoidant/fear of intimacy when it comes to dating prospects that include actually holding off BDs. It doesn't help that BDs are by nature a 'rough sex' experience and I'm not into that sort of thing

Weird to see the Euro 60 hours ( 00z ) be so differently designed than the GFS. I did notice that the last 6 consecutive cycles of the the guidance have en mass/average been raising heights a tick or two...Now 582 dm over Logan ..versus 573 for this mid week's period from just a day or so ago. The Euro appears to be conceding to that with a frontal wave in NNE and Wed am warm sector ...front comes thru noon-ish but weak backside CAA in intense April sun, d-slope under lingering 850s in the +6 or 7 range... that's a decidedly different implication than the GFS. The Euro might actually be a better fit for that tendency to raise heights with the ridging/582. I guess in the strict Meteorological techy shit it's not that hugely different, but the sensible weather implication is really where the differences lie - and "lie" may be the best fit. Ha. Verbatim, this GFS (right) is orange lightning slow growl rumbler rains with chilly air undercutting into NE zones. Wet where mild so capped temperatures SW and basically ... blegh. The Euro on the other hand is probably 75 F with partliy sunny. Over all, there was less cold undercutting total synoptic implications across all guidance... Slightly but perhaps crucially less aggressive in that regard. I think I speak for the majority at this point, we hope so.

Nah BD’s ruinin every day post Tuesday down to NYC

No warmth on the Euro N of the Pike and ... heh, fronts seldom stall there, so may as well drill it to Morristown NJ... BD Tuesday relays to a cold front/CAA --> cycles all over again out to 300 hours, ending in an April snow storm. Have a nice day

I'm highly confident that when the March temperature anomaly is made available by NASA in a couple of weeks it will reveal the 6th consecutive month where a cold sink hole's apparently anchored over the NE' U.S.

You have me as a witness... Seems there's been a bit of a + anomaly with that standing wave cloud materialization phenomenon going on this early spring. We had nape sun earlier but have since denigrated the skies to a virga blizzard with blotches of dark exploded CU ...corpuscular rays blasting out around the edges as they made sure to eclipse any hope of penetrating sun. Nothing reaching the ground of course... Reminds me of that first winter like cold snap in mid November you get. Maybe if your lucky while raking you'll see a single flurry flake catch the corner of your eye.

Perhaps lol. well.. .not lol but yeah. anyway, I was being a little tongue in cheek just based upon that GFS run showing an anomalous deep troposphere ridge over the eastern mid latitude continent, in a pretty ideal spatial layout. It's way out there in time though... so not much predictive skill. I will say though, the operational model runs are all vastly colder than the indexes suggest they really should be. But when they are all doing it, it makes it harder to argue against just the same. So not sure what to do in the interim. We may have to deal with IP bombs going off under 570 dm heights, I guess. For f-sake can these models admit to seasonal change already?

My April heat burst is showing up

Doubt it. It'll all devolve into a series of BD bum bangin' warm enthusiasts frustration, at about a 36 hour RPM rate

hmm yeah