Typhoon Tip

Right ...cuz Tolland's in a relative min/face smack slot there so you know yours must be balls on right

The Euro's conflicting 1/6 with 1/8; the latter has the larger mass-field driven amplitude signal and would be a much bigger deal without that interference. The only difference between this run and the 12z GGEM with it's tasty cliff hanger on D10 ( 8th ) is that the Canadian has a bigger temporal gap between them - or just enough. That allows the 8th to amplify more. The take away - you know this obviously ... - is that this is all fluid for now.

no idea... i was in a conversation with Ray about how it didn't extend much N of SNE. That much is true/shown with that. that's where it's use stops.

yeah, honestly I'll leave that to y'all. I do wonder where we are when that erstwhile 1/3 season-length resonant -WPO breaks down... I hunch there's a window of opportunity there for at least a transient +PNA. That's obviously thus of unknown magnitude. You know what this reminds me of... high A1C. The body is swimming, in fact ...drowning is apropos, in high octane energy but it's can't use it. It's like the hemisphere is a suffering Prediabetic. There's no real comparative or metaphoric value to that, but it just leaps to mind because I'm bored with nothing else to do ... but it fits in with my Cosmos is just an analog engine in disguise. I see circumstantial metaphors all the time. Like, the AGW stuff? classic hypertension. My mind has fun with circumstantial comparisons. To much partying and the host body ends up polluted, their metrics go up.. On Earth? Humanity's been on this harbor cruise party since 1780 and the IR (Industrial Revolution).... It's just that in geological time span, the metaphor takes a helluva lot longer. In 2026...it is like 1.5 hours into the party cruise, and the wooziness is just kicking in. We'll see if the idiot has the sense to come back to the dock, or if they end up on an O.D. OR at the ER just havin' fun

well... we could also pop a decent event in the next 12 days and still averaged a fubar midriff season. haha. I mean, even dog years can't some times find a stray in heat

I'm personally very confident that the primary determining factor is in what the PNA does post the -WPO breakdown - spanning the 2-5th. If that emerges into a western N/A ridge we're probably going to set something up that's at minimum climo - which means higher ceiling event. If it doesn't ... we don't

You get the impression the GFS' recent topography is trying to get organized around the 6-7-8 dates but its not focusing. It's a bit early yet, yup. For now, buck shot with S/Ws through the medium and time span. There's some S/W spacing at 500 mb that looks innocuous and weak 5-6, followed by a more potent amplification nearing the 7-8 period, but the stuff in the 5-6 is just enough to interfere and limit what the 7-8 can do. So you end up with a whole lot of nothing. But that's just the operational GFS Meanwhile, in honestly the ensemble spatial synoptic cinemas looked like shit to me from overnight. I was hoping for more from those. Based on what could have been, when observing the erstwhile trends, no. They instead come up with this half commitment between a new -EPO, and a stressed low amplitude +PNA... in other words, garbage pattern. It's garbage because [ no one will read it anyway ] ... The collapse of the eastern hybrid -WPO is still high confidence spanning the first week. The models are having difficulty coming in with a coherent new paradigm after the fact. May need more time. If it ends up in some distorted piece of shit between two modes it's unclear a best what the f that will mean. Could be anything, but probably not winter storms because that means nothing is actually happening. If it ends up more committed to a +PNA then we'll emerge a system E. I said back in early Sept: early blocking and winter pattern followed by sputtering mid season, and then early spring. So far, nailed the first 1/3. We'll see where this goes.

actually HFD was in a local screw hole it looks like with "only" 16 inches...

That had a pretty steep gradient to it. I was in Acton and we managed 15". Boston was around 18 but up at UML in Lowell it was 10" I think if memory serves. But it was 2 foot or so in Hartford. I don't think S Vt saw much at all

Jan '96

It’s like symbolically the Earth is struggling to come up with ways to preserve itself from tipping over into a point of no return. Imagine if in 50 years science proves how close we were and didn’t know. Like we came that close to ending our ours and countless other species if it were not for that mere decimal AD response -

this was explained over two days, ad nauseam ... but, the audience just sits in wait with elastic strain for the first reason ( in this case ... HREF driven knee jerk upgrades) to suspend all constraint. Anything to load up the dopa syringe, at least excuse imagined LOL

How often do you see supercell embedded squall lines along 40 N latitude after Xmas..

I agree... but the "Pope's" caveats, albeit a bit salty and mean sounding ( haha ) are unfortunately with merit. Truth is, pattern structure is only A B comes when we start to see how the dailies start arriving and fit into it. Is it going to be a 'warm variant', or is there cold available... Cold when counts... etc. Yes, climo ... but ( and I have no compunctions in admitting this - ) climo is fucked now in mid winters. That much is just true whether anyone else admits and/or has a problem with that or not. That's the beauty of actual statistics, and, science that is backed by the actual statistics: it's true whether one is in the conversation or not.

and I tried to keep that brief! LOL Btw, H.A. are initials. Heather Archembault released a Master's thesis back in the early 1990s that discussed the restoring of +PNA lending to enhancing precipitation over eastern North America.