Typhoon Tip

man..hahahaha just saw the Euro surface i mean to successfully tease every coast from PWM down to the Va Capes like that 96 hour frame, simultaneously, some 800 miles in one contiguous arc of 'imagine if that was onshore' is really quite an achievement. how the hell did they do that -

oh, it's a failed phase... absolutely that's what that is... What we've been collectively looking at in the runs for the past few days. Seems this was not taking place when these were prior to 2 days ago, but has since... so be it. It's a stream bi-pass... why that is...? Not entirely certain but it looks like the U component of the navier stokes is too fast for the total wave unification to take form/merge... that's the mathematics in how speed fucks up a phase. It's what this looks like - doesn't have to be the final solution. just sayn'

this is the problem with the Euro run ...this is the 96 hour. Go back and trace that through from 84 ..you can see it's spontaneously emerged out of the convection field fanning hugely in advance of the whole trough. so...it may not be real. it may be real. who knows...but that's your problem with this

Well...firstly and foremost that was a tongue-in-cheeking worded for the long of dirty dialogue. Buuuut so long as we're on the subject, like all humor their is point to be had buried in the muse ... The fast atmosphere is screwing things up, and the fast atmosphere ... plaguing seasons most always as a baseline problem in recent decadal time scale(s), is definitely physically connect to a warming planet. That's already been science/papered by several source - although, others in here with open minds and curious speculation, did surmise something was wrong and began posting about it, years and years ago See, there are two ways heat in the atmosphere exists. Human common experience only directly samples how the temperature feel on their actual skin, or makes them feel. Unfortunately for CC, most of it ( so far...) does not appeal that form. Most of CC is absorbed into the background environment .. it does really raise the temperature until there has been 2ndary and tertiary different systemic processes. One of which is the expansion of warm heights ...which then means extremer gradients during winter/seasonal cooling from higher latitudes on down... The Earth becomes like an engine... But instead of converting combustion energy into motion energy, it converts potential energy to motion via the thermal wind component being larger when there is larger gradient. That then bends by coriolis ... and that becomes the base-line geopotential wind velocity. See...not many people know any of this exists in reality. 99% of people don't. And of those that remain... about 10% even get it intuitively That's really the human and humanities biggest problem ... the truth is owned by a tiny fraction of everyone, who benefit off their discoveries ... perhaps irresponsibly for not knowing what's behind it all. But everyone is now using these innovations that have toxic effects on the environment. Small imbalance there, huh. But I'm wildly digressing... anyway, the speeding atmosphere is connected to CC.

Live by the N/stream ... die by the N/Stream You've been N/Streamed! LOL

Maybe this is how you get winter enthusiasts to finally stop playing the "I'm not a denier while failing to admit CC is playing a factor" game ... By consummately bending them over with this fast flow shit, their bums may finally reach quota of violation enough to penetrate their minds with it. haha

Hate to say ... fast fukin' atmosphere striking again in this RDPD run... this rapid inject over the crown of the +PNAP ridge out west is screwing things up... 'Is it real? I dunno

It's less common as error correction now that it was back when ( grhs) he was around posting about it. The convective grid-scale feedback is less error prone in the guidance than back then. These last 20 years of guidance/technology evolution have improved on that. That's shrunk the error spectrum/causality - like we removed a lot of that specific error type when the grid scaling stuff/boundary condition was improved. Now, the error is mainly related to whether the convection triggers at all.. and in what quantity - this is still error prone but in total we don't see as many late minute adjustments. I've noticed that as these storms get closer in time, there is less escape vorticy nodes; it seems to be more of a mid range taint.

Yeah, that ICON solution's offering a brand new twist to this whole thing... The SPV aspect is like 25% weaker overall in its contribution/diving... It's really reducing it to piece of shit status and weak. If that happens, game over

I've actually seen it happen. In fact, shit I don't remember which one but for the longest time after learning about convective-grid-scale feedback in undergrad studies, I just went ahead and assumed that all cold winter deep trough approaching the Gulf/adjacent SW Atlantic warm moist source would trigger that phenomenon. But, convection really early in the total synoptic evolution ... , can be real, too. The difference is whether it is on the grid intervals. That causes the low formulation .. which then escapes in the streamline downstream, taking a lot of latent heat away from the primary forcing associated with the main trough. This is less than technically everything going on but just making concept here... However, there was storm in my lore that was maybe 20 years ago, where I-be damned if a big plume of convection didn't erupt and gobble all the fuel away and escape seaward. I was like, 'wtf! that's supposed to be convective fakery' - that's when I gathered the difference between a real convection tainted event, and one that is manufactured by the models and is thus not necessarily real. It's a quasi now-cast thing in the 18 hours prior...

Two things are happening, both neggie to winter storm bombard enthusiasts ( haha) 1, the mid/u/a tropospheric lows are failing to capture the lower levels, which are skittering out ahead .. perhaps some convective drag, too 2, the, the mid/u/a tropospheric lows are in total taking a rather broad parabolic journey ..swinging hugely from MIssouri to SE of the BM ... This latter aspect I'm waiting on the guidance to correct. Even 15%'s the difference maker here.

Just look at this chart ... Do you see these cyclonic nodes way the fuck out E of the trough ... ? that's #2

I did qualify the effort with selfy already an hour ago so I think I'm covered

Edit NAM: altho - this didn't end up bad looking at 84 hours. It's still a little west of the others, which is sensible. Extrapolating this... I cold see two things possibly happening ... 1, the voriticity shrapnel fanning off GA is likely convective explosion ( I discussed that erstwhile missing component to these global model solutions to date, last night - ). That would release latent heat to the total wave space, jacking the Atl perenial height wall which counter offers resistance to an E track. That's theoretical but does factor so ... pretty proven. 2, that becomes overly aggressive, and a low is biased/stretched toward said convection... starving the low that would otherwise be triggered closer to synoptic q-g forcing associated with that gdz hole in the sky approaching the coast.

Yup, the 12z NAM is back to a more E solution with the initial diving N/stream. That's not cutting it up right. The 06z had more promise ...as discussed, also a better fit for where this should all be happening in the first place... , but this 12z just panicked and erased the right answer on the test, and went instead with the other solution...