Typhoon Tip

It’s because the storm/cyclone, despite being deep in guidance is never fully coupled to the synoptic forcing … in the guidance. The modeled convective “theft” is lame, and not actually developed by synoptic q-g forcing so as it climbs latitudes and the convection begins to wane … it’s weakening. You see that on the cold side of the circulation, en route to the NW Atl, it looks like it fails to really generate much QPF on the west side of the cyclonic envelope - it’s kind of like an imposter low

Yeah it's a matter of when in either case. The trouble with February downward breaks is that by the time it matters, the sun/seasonality is attempting to make it matter less. I guess cross that bridge... In this case, the exertion of a -AO has been in place prior to any notable temperature intrusion, so this suggests it is bottom up. This also hearkens back to an argument I've made in the past, that if you are in a season plagued by a preponderance of the -AO state, the advent of a SSW means less because it's eventual modulation is absorbed into the preexisting state. But that's a deeper aspect. .... it's going to be difficult separating causalities if the AO continues to be so weighted. So I believe the AO is separate phenomenon endemic to this season ... record breaking domain temperatures associated with this up there. It's offloaded so much mass that it is actually driving the NH totals down, while leaving the arctic elevated. Mind you, an elevated state that can still store meat indefinitely ... but it's an upside down hemisphere prior to any SSW even being involved. So I've looked at it and to me, there's more suggestion that this is bottom-->up

I love it! keep it comin' Yeah, so, you know all this, but for the general audience. Feb 9th is the closer approximation time 45th parallel exits of the solar minimum. About the 8th at 42... It's an interesting aspect of celestial mechanics that these time windows do not correspond with the seasonal calendar. These human inventions handed down from antiquity are actually irrelevant to astro-dynamics. The first day of spring in terms of planetary orbital mechanics should be on or about the date the sun switches from nadir to gaining. The first day of summer should be on or very near May 8th... Autumn should begin on August 9th or so and so on. Winter is November 8th. Thing is, the year is split up in to 91.25 days per temporal quarter. That makes up 365 days total. However, there are some numerical idiosyncrasies baked in that make it not exactly 91.25 days per max vs min, vs the two transition solar seasons. For one, the orbit of the Earth around the Sun is not a perfect circle. The planets spends slightly more time in summer max than we do in winter min ... because it is closer in its pass to the sun in the winter. Such that by a small amount the orbital velocity is faster than the summer. So the solar max is actually about a couple of days longer on each end... I think the solar max actually begins around May 4th or 5th... then running out to August 10 or 11. But for simplicity, we just figure a roughly 91 and change days goes into each quarter. So Nov 8 to February 9 to May 10 to August 11 then reset at Nov 8. When we pass through these virtual boundaries in space, you don't really notice much difference at all. But if one looks around they may detect. Example, as others are noticing, we are already sensing some warm direct sun exposure sensation just 41 days past the Solstice now. But, that sensation will be noticeably stronger by the 15th of February. That's sort of how these boundaries are blurred as they pass. I have ruminated in the past how hopping in your car at the end of a work day having parked it in the sun, the interior is noticeably warmer from solar bake on or about February 10, noticeably more so than February 1. There are some specialized physical settings where these transitions may evince. Also, snow packs facing the sun will start to shard appearance no matter what the ambient temperature is by February 15. That's the intensifying solar radiation heating darker embedded particles and then the melt back through. Micro effects.

I did catch the indices before the power went out… yes, I could do it from my phone too, but I just prefer not to cause this interface sucks for weather charting Anyway… It looks like there’s one last signal on this current PNA cycle that would be around the sixth seventh and eighth. But like this last one, the models are having trouble really grabbing a hold of a system in that period there’s been hints at it – where have we seen that before? This current one that we’re missing tomorrow that hinted for a while and then suddenly burst onto the stage at five or six days ahead, but then we watched as inch by inch lost to us south. I’m just not sure we’re not gonna run into the same issues with that thing going on towards that end of that first week. Beyond that it looks like we have a tendency for higher latitude blocking, and that’s really almost entirely negative AO driven. The EPO is actually not that negative during that period and the north Atlantic isolation is unclear with occasional pulsations of the models that don’t have continuity. I think what’s happening is that the Arctic oscillation is very negative and it’s overlapping these other domain spaces, but nevertheless, we’ve clearly established a conveyor into North American continent. My experience over the decades is that once you establish these connective conveyors they tend to last. So at a sort of conceptual level were left with a cold mid latitude continent with the near neutral PNA as we head into mid February Yeah, that’s not exactly storm unfriendly but good luck with deterministic success probably a lot of storm maturation occurring at less than four day prediction windows

0ZGFS operational is pretty epic with a couple of different plume cycles going on through Southern Canada saw sub 500 thickness over sprawling areas I think twice during the cinemas of those runs… 0Z and 06Z

Probably the most important distinction is that we are cold relative to the rest of the planet. The last I saw one of those pretty colorized global representation of temperature anomalies there were two places on the planet, the entire planet, where negative anomalies had been cumulatively observed. It was western southern Canada north eastern US and then someplace over in near the Urals. That might’ve been December or November or something. But anyway, I’d be curious to find out what the status of that ongoing monitoring is now. One thing that’s interesting is that the Arctic domain is exceptionally above normal right now. Exceptionally above normal in the arctic domain in the middle of the northern hemisphere winter will still store meat indefinitely… It’s the middle latitudes around the hemisphere are actually pulling a global means down in the last 30 days so I think the colorized distribution of anomaly probably has changed some. Either way the bottom line, it’s chilly outside.

Well, I’m thinking specifically our town… We have those cross country high tension, powerlines coming into here in a massive substation. That’s what service is this town and in fact this region. But it’s a moot point anyway because the outage map is not the whole town. It’s just my neighborhood and the neighborhood next to mine so the neighbor was wrong lol The upside of that as it can’t take longer to return this or reset it

I’m actually standing here with the sun shining through the south window on my upper torso and it’s remarkably warm Yeah… I think it’s safe to say I’m pretty much done with this winter. Between coastal storms that have no excuse or explicit Bility and missing the region to unrelenting cold when the rest of the planet is still above normal… no thanks Although I guess we did have the one storm so it’s not a total waste of experience. But anyway, I don’t think it’s worth it… We’ll see if these phantom storms out there can finally penetrate through the ludicrous speed of the hemisphere and actually happen for a change. And I’m sure during the run up to each nobody will either see or admit that they’re seeing something having to do a climate change speeding up the hemisphere to the point where storm systems get disrupted by shear all the fucking time.

… A single pole wouldn’t take out a whole town?

Well, this is just fine and dandy It was 10 below zero this morning here… presently 4 And the power blinks out. This house cannot be heated without electricity. Electricity is needed to run the mini split/heat compressor system. Thankfully, it’s very small power usage… Unfortunately, it is not a zero power usage. So the temperature is already dropped easily 10° here in this first hour of this just got a text from the neighbors that apparently this is town wide; so the entire town of Ayer Massachusetts is in the dark on one of the if not the coldest mornings of the winter. I think, after careful consideration, I’ve come to the conclusion that NGRID’s a piece of shit. This is like the fourth time I’ve awoken in the morning to find my alarm clock light blinking… Like who uses an alarm clock anymore, right ha ha ha, but anyway that signifies that the power has gone out overnight. For whatever random reason it’s not really conveyed very well anyway and I’m sure if it’s not very honest anyway. They sent you a text message, “we are aware of your outage at the given address and we’re working to resolve the matter as quickly as possible… “. In the end, I just see that as a bunch of PR bullshit you cannot have power going out save for very rare circumstances and definitely not when it’s 5° up or down from zero Fahrenheit outside. so I guess I’ll set the faucets to drip and wait it out and should my pipes somehow freeze or damage occurred to this house ngrids going to get a nice fat lawsuit.

Right!

I don't disagree with Scott's observations there; spoke similarly about the unusually rich volatile instability there being "too much of a good thing" yesterday I'll just add that the convection itself is racing away along the streamlines out there. We're lacking a lot of more typical curvature response to the convection exhaust in the escape orientation of the isohypses. If we had that normalcy in place it would probably help contain and low further W and other feedbacks ... it's just idiosyncratic about this particular event to be missing that. I think the speed of the flow is outpacing that response mechanism's ability to do so.

I spent a whole sermon on this a couple hours ago and of course no one read it ( I don't learn apparently ) but yeah, there's a signal there. However, just like the shenanigans in the models leading up to this ordeal on Sunday, this next one may suffer the same frustrations. so,... it may have legs, but their not the Conan The Barbarian type of legs... They're like the kid with polio waddling around with the help of his arm crutches

daylight adds energy ... the whole conversation is rube-ish

Yeah ... I see more of the same shit propensity continuing, unfortunately. In the objective sense, of course there are 'chances'. I think however we're in troubling trends endemic to this season (probably longer ) I don't see how that's stopping enough to make said chances very good. Scott touched on one of the reason in the compendium of whys, the -NAO needs to be considered as an indication for track behavior as well as possible damping effects (damping in this context is when upstream systems are forced weaker as they come east) But above and beyond that there is this back ground tendency of emerging noise, noise that turns out to be real. Moreover and most importantly, noise that is unknowable at longer leads. It's just simply not being seen very well by the physical processing of guidance out in time these days. Some of that is normal... Chaos/entropy, it gathers out in time in these complex systems of positive and negative synergies. Fine. However, there appears to be more of it than the normal quotient expectation. Speed in the atmosphere manifests in 3 ways: 1, the general winds around all features are faster than normal; 2, the S/W that are born within that maelstrom will inherit the wind and thus via wave physics be faster moving - this is also always been inherently a problem for guidance with fast progressive flow; 3, the rate of emergence and decay et al, these 2ndary and tertiary events .. come into and out of existence faster. All these aspects can be tied together via the Navier-Stokes mathematics. This aspect blindly doomed the current system moving off the SE Coast out into the Atlantic on Sunday. Compared to the guidance portrayal earlier on... 6 or so days ago when this "threat" on the EC was elaborated by the models, this encircled annotation above was retard back upstream, not nearly as coherently influencing matters...in fact, it really was not there... But it has evolved faster as a complete deep trough-ridge couplet up there ... en masse, moving ESE into the domain space of this whopper you see pushed/forced ENE ... I think Brian was mentioning this yesterday. And all this interference crap still fits unfortunately safely inside this type impressive +PNA mode we're in... Anyway, long of the short ... I don't see that model performance is going to be very good moving forward. As in, worse than normal.