Typhoon Tip

https://phys.org/news/2026-02-january-hottest-cold-snap-eu.html

Little bit of an ensemble fight

I'm inclined to think the EPS system is overly conserving the amplitude of that wave space in attempting to send it through the enormous non-linear destructive interference of the -d(PNA). It's not like it's dropping. It's going down like a disgraced prom queen. It's trying to send a cyclonic signal through a field where the anticyclonic potential is rising. GFS might not be precisely handling the bits and pieces but in principle, it latched on to this deadening signal sooner, has been consistent since, and actually fits the motif better. Anomalies nest inside anomalies some times.... I guess one way to over come is to have so much power at the lower scale, that it can offset the larger scale tendency to cancel it out. A scenario that seldom occurs.

No thx

NW --> SE general motion et al is a bit of flag, too

It's almost like the GFS is dropping the W into a -EPO tendency in the first week, and then walking away Meanwhile, the index interpretation is offers uncertainy. That N. Pac thing from late Novie through Dec is back in its haunt, but it's not clear whether it will mean same or similar or somehow idiosyncratically different over the eastern N/A continent. This looks like a cold stormy pattern at a glance but that ridge up there is sort of in the hybrid WPO/EPO space which complicates matters, particularly if it is resonant and not moving.

Under the radar aspect about that warm up in January. I argue it was not "thermodynamic" in character - in other words, dry air warm up. It's not the same beast as other. The measly 3" of white stone snow pack was incredibly resistant. We really only went down to bare ground in this part of the interior ... not until the last day or two of that span. Otherwise, a lot of 46 F highs over that apparently impervious to melt. It matters meteorologically because warmth in the atmosphere is both kinetic and also water vapor. But a dryer air mass will withstand just temperature more so than when it is accompanied by a DP that is also above freezing.

Here ya go .... this oughta chap some asses in here https://phys.org/news/2026-02-january-hottest-cold-snap-eu.html

Not sure anyone's invalidated this winter... ? that's the spontaneous crowd physical digression of the hour I guess. LOL No...this seemed to get going when Scott and I made the factual observation of the dearth of coastal storm types this winter. That's just reality. There is no amount of virtual space on the web whereby people can hide and recreationally think reality is something else, that will change what reality really was ( you should be laughing at this point - ) The reasons why for that? there's worthwhile scientifically -based exploration there. Some may not be able to handle what that is? Seems that way ...

Not a bad point here. It's not a zero-sum gain. We threaded the needle in a sense during that Jan 25th event. Perhaps sort of skewing that toward being less obvious, it was just so ginormous. One might not be inclined to think of that system thatt way when there were ongoing multi-regional scaled simultaneous impacts. It's like yeah, it threaded the needle but the needle's eye was size of a galaxy. ha! Anyway, fast flow in and of itself doesn't mean no storms. It's more of timing, and also a spatially constraining factor. There can be fast moving bombs, just less likely observed. There can be big sprawling events, as Jan 25 demoed rather nicely... but over the long haul, we're more likely to observe narrower corridor impact ... if intense, briefer. The compression can damp out events ... but we shouldn't think of the fast flow that happens in compression as really being the cause.

I wasn't talking about you, personally bro - Just a comment about the audience. And it is factually true... because the majority of this social media's return/habitual contributors and players and pastimers both have not suffered and succeeded dynamics, but also in turn don't really present much evidence that there's been supplements.

Check-out motives are leaning, man... Another ad nauseum aspects folks hide their heads in a brown paper sack like a cat trying to evade a 5 year-old tail puller is that the sun is now formally ended winter. It's turned up the inflection out of the dish pan wattage and we are in the transition season - today being the first full day. It doesn't mean much in the dailies ... obviously big winter events can transpire into May in this piece of shit spring geography ... but, excluding those rarer returns, there is also a futility to looking at a winter event on guidance - for me anyway - that I cannot escape going forward. Plus... winter and snow is not everyone's bag. In here, if you voice visions of joy outside those confines ( and it is a prison of perception by the fuckin way ) it can be so liberating. LOL no but I have a lot of outdoor stuff I enjoy too much. That combined with the fact that it is really undeniable that the verification routinely falls short of this "model cinema" pastime/investing, patience wears thin by now. And, right at the time the sun is noticeably brighter and hotter. heh -

Maybe. Not much evidence folks acknowledge or use it, tho, to necessarily constrain their "ebullient" response to modeling outlooks. Seems like ignoring an aspects because one is sick of hearing something isn't very mentally responsible. But I also suspect there's an aptitude gap there, too.

This was exactly what I was thinking this morning when looking at this ... 5 weeks of predominantly +PNA ( with oscillation no less, a typically favorable behavior). Yet, jack shit zilch squat response in specifically that. I know folks either don't understand this, or are sick of hearing it ... but, the over-arcing -AO that took place nearly collocated in time produced a velocity anomaly. This is expressed in two ways ...well three. 1, the compression/intense planetary gradient immediately generates a high basal wind flow. 2, because of that ( lengthening U component in the Navier Strokes-it ) the wave function responds by speeding up the S/W wave speeds. 3, the patterns are "idiosyncratically unstable", a bit more complex.. Those are all indirect/non-lineary negative interference constraints .. Everything else on your list were the constructively favored. I fully believe this has porked organized cyclogen from materializing out of the occasional hyper-bomb fantasia of the modeling cinema per the course.

Wow.. GFS' starting to look like Feb 2020 ...