Typhoon Tip

There is an interesting relative max in the PNA that takes place 23-26th; it's nested in the midst of an ongoing submerged PNA. It's like an sub-surface sea mount with a buoy blinker to warn passing ships. Ha There's some other everyday reasons to suspect less coastal crawling big dawg solutions are favored, but that bold aspect about the zonal/W-E is big correction lean that's a pretty big one. Pig solutions at this D7-10 range also tend to lose amplitude as they are relayed inward in time. That's more than less an ongoing operational weather forecasting application aspect. But combining that with the former ... I tell you what, it would be ironic if this one fought off all those reason and work out for the better. There is still the relative PNA spike.

That's the day before the April Fools Day massacre, 1997 sorry

they're not quite the same, but end up in the same sensible weather neighborhood.. The ICON's movie reminds me of this guy -

The 23/24 system could have some tepid support in a relative sense. On whole, very negative PNA through the entire period, doesn't normally inspire wildly spun up and anchored coastals. Certainly ... during a season where we've observed 0 productivity in coastals; persistence and trend begs to differ. Ha. However nested within, there is still a 2 to 3 day relative maxim in there. It would not be altogether crazy to observe a system moving through at that time Kind of with Ray on that... sub 980 mb lows tip-toeing around the coast line as though it were the work of some cryo-dystopian artist's white dream ...that's really is not what that signal is, however. It's 7+ days away still. There's time for the general circulation mode to alter enough - even idiosyncratically helps. But the problem with a very negative PNA is that the W-E coordinate is the correction vector. It's very heavily/statistically correlated. So it's like yeah ... a system slips through the medium, but it's favored to be more middling in amplitude, moving fast along a more E trajectory.

Talk about threading a needle ... goodness

Different wave spacing/event mechanism - when you say "also" it kinda sorta sounds like "same", whether you meant that or not. So ... just sayn' It matters, because the CMC in fact has nothing from the same prospect that the GFS designed.

yeah... been awhile since we've seen a 2" basin wide rain event into a foot of dying snow

I have... By Euro I had 'Euro product suite' in mind.

I've noticed that since these late Feb aspects have begun to emerge ... the GFS heredity of products overall are less shy about committing to spring. The Euro is trying to sell eternal storm and cold. The index/numerics of either ensemble means don't statistically support what the operational Euros have been trying to sell. Just cautioning folks... prepare to be disappointed. The upshot? if you are not, then there was no risk. it's possible the GFS is too warm, but... it has March and improving sun and CC and what have you backing the indexes, all of which suggesting otherwise.

I don't have a problem with Euro's cyclone bombing on the 23rd because it doesn't actually hit anyone. That's the other tenor of the season. Anti-coastal coagulant

Approaching 30" is just a "little" over doing it so you'd be willing to trim that back, huh haha lord

These AI model versions all seem to turn everything in their mid and ext handling into coastal storms regardless I think sticking to overrunning with labored andor failing miller Bs is more likely. Unless indicators change, winter ends not to far after next weekend

mm... What I want is just as irrelevant. Shit I check out every year at this time. It doesn't mean jack. I. hate. winter. after. Feb 15 With the hypocritical exception of something more extraordinary ...which I have elaborated/admitted all this many times in the past am morally fine with it. LOL It is actually entering a frustrating time of year for me. Because objectively, we don't get warmth to stick around here until... 3 weeks in late July for that matter. Aprils? H'ho man. I tell ya, I'm not that far off from my mortgage being paid ... at which time, I will be free to scope out salvation residences during this region's spring climate rectum

Perhaps ... It needs more for that, though. As is...it's a spring warm thrust. The surface synoptics underneath all that, lags a bit yet. It can potentially get there ... it's teetering with ballooning, but out of deference to the incredible persistence of this winter to pick on the eastern mid latitude continent for cold ... who knows. It is normal at this sort of range for the surface to lag response to deeper layer forcing... 570 heights arcing over spatially large progressive ridge during a -PNA has room for warmer temps to en masse expand, so it's not impossible. It's just not there yet. And the -PNA's non-linear constructive interference could help that ridge get bigger and cleaner. Plus, we're after the solar min during seasonality's steepening recovery slope ( in an era of CC just to chap some asses ) As an op ed, I just see this winter's cold journey as being very enabling. We've been in an escaped state of mind provided by a cold predicament that was really ( in true and fair reality) confined specifically to this nodal region of the hemisphere. And I would argue that removing the ~10 day warm anomaly during mid January, likely makes this preordaining cold imby bias that much more obvious on the right side. The larger, longer termed reality isn't that. It is easier to go warmer than it is to go cooler in the world of present era, and to an exceptionally high degree ( pun hopefully annoying -) of confidence, that will be the case for generations to come. Warm signals will tend to out perform the cool ones, if only by decimals over the long haul/arithmetic of climate.. that is clad. That has to be the case. Because, what one wants is irrelevant against objective mathematics. Euphemistically, you can simply say it getswarm at lesser excuse to do so, than cool. So where I am going is... folks might be surprised when the pattern finally and more viscerally does change ... because the other direction could be more than they've been inclined to think.

Using the indices... March begins in balm. Whether that's merely relative to climatology, or actually feels that way between the front door and destination, notwithstanding. But that -WPO is retrograding in the materialized spatial ens cinemas, at the same time there's a -PNA/+EPO/Neutral NAO; a wholesale mass field scaffolding that doesn't leave a whole helluva lot of other alternative impressions. Particularly when the +EPO has -2 SD cold over Alaska. Cold AK typically results in warm departures over the GL-NE/SE Can. We'll see... Can't say I'm opposed ( personally ...) I've checked out. I'm ready. I'll be objective about "late" event possibilities, but in terms of druthers? I'm all about lesser clothed ladies and outdoor laze faire and sports. In the interest of fairness... whatever happens this week can still get winter antics done for winter enthusiasts. The end of the week still looks like a mixy/ice potential... But it's low confidence by virtue of the fact that the moderately (still/residual) higher speed of the flow foot is flattish through then, which is very typically not a good deterministic regime for modeling.