Typhoon Tip

Mmm no. That's a black box description. It doesn't describe the gears of the model. You can believe what you like. You are fundamentally wrong about the bold unless the exact "math" of the model machinery is describe, unambiguously. Stats and history don't describe the systems that produced them, btw - you're making my point.

well, you and others are doing fine, too. I mean we'll see? we've seen unusual behaviors where varying elaboration/coherence morph before there can be a realized event. That's been a thing in recency ( decadal ). The telecons come in and out of signal, doing so before there's been enough time to realize correlated events. fascinating if frustrating. So for now ...it is what it is

Quickly nearing advisory verification here... S vis est .75 mi 2.25" 33 deg

Well ... for starters, I gave you plenty - and so did others: no one can (apparently) define the discrete processes in the construct of these tools. For all we know, if they ever succeed(fail) it may just be dumb fuck luck. This situation is no different. This is the logical and the correct approach. It certainly may come off as a trophy wave time - firstly, nothing's happened yet. Secondly, even these tools wavered E at one time or the other over the last 30 hour's worth of cycles. So they are back? I can tell you meteorologically why these runs are coming back, without using "blind" model methods - which they are ... until such time as these organization(s) et all put out knowledge-based tell-out educational prospecti about the math and philosophies of these instruments. Until that happens, you'll get burned one day, eventually ... if you don't know what it is you are dealing with.

That's likely overcooked in the GFS handling... tho event(s) cannot be ruled out prior to the 27th-ish, given the crazy thermal gradient/baroclinic potential between Manitoba and the Gulf that will preside thru the continental midriff latitudes. The flow shall remain fast as that gradient in large part resolves itself in the form of huge geostrophic baseline wind velocities.... that in and of itself lends to less super large very organized cyclogenic results. I like morphing that into an over runner/multi wave type thing. The bigger signal with multi variant telecon source/other techniques overwhelmingly flags the 27th thru Feb 1+ ... 29th -ish is like a quasar on JWST. Mentioned this early ...now the 12z GFS with a first stab ( not to be taken literally of course - ) is close to the eye-candy, full on capture subsume historically phased bomb scenario... This period of time at the end of the month is the most elaborate converging teleconnector scenario I've seen in a few seasons . interesting

Yes! to the point/observation I just mentioned, this fits

I'm way behind but I reasoned that out yesterday... The diffluent "fan" of the isohypses appears to be sensitive in this case. The more expanded that is toward the NW, the model's been 'filling' more QPF

... which, doesn't comment on the stability ... It's 240+ hours and just outside the range where these larger scaled 'scaffolds' become more reliable -

yeah, just looking at these spatial orientations now... 28th/29th is a quasar anything prior to the 27th is probably kind of buckshot and not very clear at this range... They're not tied to any coherent larger mass field reshuffling; if/when they exist they're like "under the radar" and emerge in shorter notice. Middling in scale, ....get into a resonant overrunning deal, notwithstanding - again, that shows up < 5 days typically in this overall compressed/cold hemisphere

Reiterating because this is the best signal using applied telecon we've had this season and possibly going back multiples - ~27th thru GH Day

Like I told Ray 10 20 pages ago or whenever the hell it was we’ve been correcting shit west all season. Not saying that’s gonna happen. Just I wouldn’t be surprised. Far be it for anybody in this NOAA administration to come up with an argument of flying special sound emissions in the western Atlantic to see what it would do if we dumped a bunch of latent heat into that region… Gotta be careful with the nam though because it’s got a northwest bias in Western Atlanta at this time range Just some pros and cons

To be honest, the AIGFS ticked southeast at 18 Z a little bit… I looked at the clock and I’m seeing 60 hours to go before game time. Yeah that’s 10 cycles plenty of time to cave.

and why does "...I don't think any of us truly understand how they work", logically mean they are more correct ?

acceptance takes away their ammo. they sense the reticence that's frankly wrong, then ... compounded by delusion at grandeur, anything but to see certain aspects that if people just accepted and stopped fighting on every single model run ... you'd de-weaponize them

wait, what did i do ? wait first of all, we don't know precisely how ... and by defacto 'what' these AI (apparent marketing gimmicks ) are doing. so how can we be sure about 20 or 30 years ago anyway? that's I pointed this out yesterday.. there's been no prospecti made easy to find - if at all - that answers the questions that everybody should be asking but no one is! jesus... degradation of virtuosity and method on both side. whereby any kind of advantages and disadvantages, circumstantially; basic modeling 101 stuff that has to be considered. confidence intervals... methodologies. nothing. we can't say jack shit about them. I'm hugely displeased at deployment and anyone that uses them .... man, caveat emptor