Typhoon Tip

D10 GFS ...this is the truer spring thrust - first of the year.

yeah...so gee, how's one suppose to think otherwise - huh

Yep

Heh... if we can call the 06z GFS' no event at all as colder, I guess nothing happening is technically 0 thermodynamics, so it would philosophically fit that definition haha Not sure I agree with it yet, still lookin'

yeah ...there's a tendency for the models to act like there's a -NAO block when the actuals don't really show a block. It's really interesting. But pinning the p-boundary roughly DTX to BOS is part of that behavior

Near missed bible phase

The deviant in me would love to see this parked on MVY ... just plunk it there and go ahead and call the National Guard

Is the 23-26th one of those climate snow holes ?

I'm also still willing to entertain more ice involved between that and the short order cook round two.

yeah.. not a 'major' event per se, but that is a significant wholesale correction S with this 12z GFS solution toward the end of week compared to prior runs.

Coming around is it -

Wonder if that was global or if it was just local thing

Steve, He said "pre -industral" Your presenting 1991 -2020 Just sayn' ... y'all can clear up the differences in data sets.

I'm just gonna respond once to save Brian's annoyance in going down the CC rabbit hole but ...yeah. I still can't get over 2023. I don't think anyone has, either. It's just been excepted, now faded - probably because no matter who is involved, everyone in modernity is zombifide into a state of no attention span. Ha. But, I think that it was just so overwhelmingly large and spectacular ... it transcends explanation in a lot of ways. Like deer in the headlight ? And thus still vaguely only theoretically explained ( though the goal posts narrowing - ). People just sort of have to go, okay it was what it was. But what that was ...was proof that humanity, despite all conceits and wizardry, doesn't have a f'n clue what exactly can happen in a future with a destabilized climate, ongoing. No one...man to machine and back, anticipated an entire planet, suddenly rising a whole degree C, air and sea. Everywhere, all at once,... unilateral response. To what? only vaguely described with a lot of plausibility ( probably a cocktail of forces working toward a synergistic outcome ..but whatever ) yet nothing discretely causative or definitive, certainly not informative. That right there, that lack of explanation ..., should ( no pun intended ) make people sweat. It should worry anyone with a modicum of intelligence. You don't have to be a climate scientist, physicist, rocket scientist or Gandalf from lord of the rings to admit, if something that grandiose happens without warning, we don't know what we're really dealing with.

yeah, and the other thing, that sun sitting on the top of the planet look up in the arctic is still 30 below 0 F. This is all an integration over relative climatology - it's not linear in dimension. Definitely the kind of post that starts fights among the razor sharp analytic users of social media Americana muah hahahaha Seriously though ... take a region that probably climo-hovers around -20 C in winter, and inject that kind of climo-relative warm anomaly, the difference might just be 20 feet of snow or whatever AI exaggerated depth that was ... just sayn'