Typhoon Tip

If this indeed turns out to be this year's nadir, I find that interesting - it'd be the earliest of all recent seasons, regardless of magnitudes, whence the nadir took place

As a Meteorologist with a turbo-dork cape, I can tell you that QRA is occurring at all spatial-temporal scales. Not just seasonal - I realize you're not suggestion so ... but I just think it is important to make the distinction. Individual stalled thunderstorm that dumps 10" of rain in a single afternoon is a harmonic/constructive interference event, at very small scale. The Pacific NW historic heat burst was a 10 .. 2 wk aspect in 2021, at perhaps intermediate. China, above, is more seasonal in scale involving a continent (altho I suspect the seasonal duration is an aggregate of intermediates in repetition, interruption by transient linear destructive interference suppressing the planetary scaled harmonics ... gets complex in a hurry) I believe it is important to understand that resonant feed-back is a phenomenon that should not be defined by lengths of existence. Its occurrence needs to be 'on the radar' (sorry for that pun) as a possible out of the blue general threat awareness. Synergistic emergence as a phenomenon is less constrained by spatial dimension - although smaller scaled ones do appear to have shorter ramp up times than those that affect at continental scales. This fits both the early climate-modeled warnings of a wide variance future, one that has also become objectively observed, too. As an aside ... I suspect there may be late October through mid December winter or quasi-winter loading patterns across N/A ( the severity and/or lengths of which are impossible to determine in seasonal predictions - just to be weary of them) Those would not necessarily go on to characterize the entire winter season ( DJF ). We can actually see this when objectively looking back at the last 20 years of climatology, too. Some of this idea is footed in recurrent observation of them, both objectively and subjectively increasing in frequency spanning climate recency. These so called 'cold meanders', some half the OND's since 2000 have hosted either snow or snow supporting synoptic, whence the ensuing (DJF) went on to banality. The latter because the hemispheric gradient in these latter months become compressed, speed up the goestrophic flow everywhere requires coherent emergence of more planetary scaled waves, a latter property emergence that can be entirely new compared to whatever has been occurring during the latter autumn and earlier winters.

There's a strangeness about the local hemisphere ( along 30 N from west of California, east to the Sargasso Sea/N. Atl Basin ) where the ridges are perforated by all these pinch mid/u/a/ lows and/or TUTTs and such. That circumstance hugely limits the likeliness than any MDR TC would firstly be able to survive the increased shear quotient in the means. Also, another likeliness killer is that steering fields are not west-->east along extended distances because these punched holes in the ridge offer too many more opportunities that encourage capture into early retirements. (hint, I know why that overall circumstance is happening, but the CC explanation rubs those that swear by not denying while denying any evidence that connecs to CC ... CC is real so long as it doesn't interfere with the prospect of d-drip potency, huh )

I'm not sure what the science is in this area of TC genesis ... or if there's any correlation at all, but this current high ranked invest out in the MDR has a very large initial mass field envelopment. I'm wondering if that presages a system that is also spatially larger than normal? It is evolving westerly return flow along the equatorial side, as evidence by cloud material/satellite, but these initial stages of that evolution extends to an unusually vast distance SW and S, some 500 km ...

That’s a pretty low bar

I would add a historical ramification ( possibly by design ...? ) It would keep the populous in the dark; ignorant and less informed people are typically more tolerant of manipulation for the simple fact that they don't know or suspect any better. Either planned, or just a very fortunate precursor roots to eventual Stalinistic exertion. Communism probably found its root suppression zeitgeist through that passage, to become all but cheered on by acceptance.

44 to 71 in just under 3 hours that's like desert recovery rates there

It could come back... but you're proooobably safe. truth be told .. the diving cold pool cinema of Euro/GGEM looked a little dubious all along. I wouldn't sell at least a diving S/W, though - not sure that would be enough to trigger much but the risk wouldn't be zero. As related topic ... this journey is a nice example of the recurring de-amplification theme that's been plaguing all guidance really for several years on going. I mean at this point I just automatically deduct something like 20 or even 40% off any D7 anything the models might be showing at that range. If a cyclone is on the EC in a Euro's D8, it has to be a 950 mb worst storm in the history of Jupiter in order for us to achieve a standard Nor'easter. I'm not sure why that is, that seemingly dependable amplitude collapse when moving modeled events from .. D8s to D4s and so forth. I am a decent sci fi author. I can pen all kinds of plausible causes for that predictable error - speculation. I'd love to have a lunch with the director of modeling at NCEP - if any such post actually still exist.. heh. Speak candidly about this subject. I could see all this being done deliberately, so that they always see the worst case scenario - plausible cause 1. I mean, they're not in the business to entertain us, much to our chagrin. Their responsibility is to protect people and property. So, it would be bad if they were always modeling pieces of shits that turned into historic roses going the other way, huh. Or not. who knows

Impressively steep radiational cooling resulted last night. 60s above ~700 ft and present hour, while lingering 40s in some places lagging recovery underneath. FIT's bounced 20 already ... 44 --> 63andchange Looking at the NAM's grid we could be 80 to 82 later on.

get used to that this winter ... 'Euro/GGEM collapsing toward progressivity' once we get toward mid winter, suspect a lot of pissin' and moanin' ha

so much for that. The Euro/GGEM collapsed pretty far toward the GFS' more progressive, less digging cold pool Sunday. Bye-bye tentative severe. In fact, even QPF chances are almost dried up entirely. So ... should this be the case, let it be known, GFS did considerably better than either the Euro or Canadian from a range of ~96+ hours.

it was there yesterday/suggestively when I brought it up

yeah... this is what I'm seeing. Timing looks good with rather sudden height falls arriving nearing 18z associated with that rather intensely nucleated cold pool diving in. Sun matters..

yeah... it'll depend on the usual - timing with still some feeble heating potential during the day... But the kinematics look decent from this range. The GFS has been demoing terrible continuity with that synoptics of it so, more Euro and/or or Euro/GGEM blended.

As I've gotten on into middle age-dom, my winter anticipation has changed. I'm not just like this guy at the mere thought of winter anymore. There's all kinds of rules now. Like, if it is going to be a perpetual 44 F with wind over bare earth boning? Leave the region and don't leave any forwarding contact information - it doesn't exist while gone. Out of sight. Out of mind. Even if there's a threat in there some-whence, it's too late. No interest. Winter is hell. F you! Complete ghosting of New England However, if winter is actually going to perform like a Rockwellian nostalgia? I'm all in. The problem is, due to CC's one-eyed bum monster, the boning option is probabilistically favored. <-- that simple sentence causes internet fights, but when the dust settles, it's still unfortunately true.