Typhoon Tip

Yeah, we're likely getting east doored big time tomorrow.

oh, shit ... you're still hosed. sorry bro

64 Mostly sun but a few patches of mackerel fractals or whatever those are called here and there. Feels like deep spring. Close enough ... this completes the temp swing absurdity ... 73 the day before yesterday, 34 during the IP yesterday, now probably 67 or so today...

partly to mostly sunny now.. 56 ... probably we touch 61-ish ? anyway, no wind and warm sun it's gone from F- to a C... If can get 64, I'll consider C+ hahaha

Not to be difficult but on April 3 ... high-ish late summer sun equivalency, should it break through ( and it looks on vis loop like it's peeling off like Pope was suggesting ) is going to save the day in my mind. 50 with hot sun... fine. Wind should remain light. Very napey

That's what I'm thinking, too... Mixing is needed and some backside dvm from elevated cv in that band might do it

Mixing is key... The models try to warm sector everywhere S of Brian and including his latitude, which agreed ... at the moment challenges the imagination as how in the hell that can actually happen when looking at larger regional synoptic observations. Take this hi res vis loop, https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Virginia-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Notice that wedge of very low level cloud arrow heading into interior VA. That's like a latex paint spill on a highway, imagine cloud-cars are gliding over the top of it. We are underneath that paint spill in this metaphor. In order to scour that out, the sun will help... but mixing is really needed for that to happen. Pure speculation, but I suspect that is why the meso models have been insistently cool as they have been, despite the frontal look of the models ( 18 to 00z later on...). They are telling us that there won't be enough mixing. It's like the warm sector pivots across the top never kissing the surface. Need the cold front to clean house. Tomorrow may actually be better than guidance, particularly if it clears. Ample late summer sun quality rising over a scoured out d-slope flow that isn't CAA crazy might actually make conditions anomalously good relative to having an overtop high pressure again building in from Ontario. Which by they ... - I'm just diatribing in general - odds lean away from observing a real and true wholesale warming over the eastern mid lat continent, if/while that PV continues to its relentless re-establishing presence N-E of Hudson Bay. So long as that is apparently never ever ever going to change ... eh hm, we are doomed to those over top high pressures ... almost like back building they are, bullying in and afflicting with NE-E "coldrums"

It's going to be fun watching the models fail as this stagnated cold saturated density on the bottom of the atmosphere clings to the region. If it does turn out "nice" ...it will be among the more exceptional same 12 hour period turn arounds recorded. 37/drizzle. It also isn't a good look when there is an active NE wind down in NJ, still, approaching mid morning. I'm perfectly willing to go with the bust today if need be. Haven't been completely sold on the whiplash. But should it turn around enough to fairly transform this rectal plaque into a nice description, hell...stranger things have happened I guess. Edit, recent check and the wind field has finally this hour gone variable between BOS-PHL so perhaps en masse mixing event is readying itself. We'll see.

I keep seeing this repeating theme in our monthlies that are above normal. The ballast of the warmth appears to be occurring in fewer days than the mode. The modes are actually showing more days nearer to neutral and/or negative. Below is HFD for March a just one example

Yeah, our prime BD season isn't here yet. we can't blame every NE accelerating wind field on BDs. BD synoptics are pretty specifically defined, and yesterday into today really isn't what that is. There may have been some tendency/shared physical space, as Scott pointed out yesterday, there was some identifiable rad signatures that a BD-line boundary was involved, but the primary facet/influence in this case is a strong N front with a big high building in. You don't have those features with a typical BD. BD's require a s/w moving ESE N of Maine... As it passes, NVA behind creates DVM and this coupled to the colder marine environment underneath and produces a pressure/density discontinuity where more mass is NE of the region E of the Berkshire/White cordilleras. This triggers a vector moving back SW to "fill" that region with the denser/colder air. And it will do so with the ability to snap flags, wave trees around and slam doors shut as Brian mused.... I've seen BDs with very little discernible actual high pressure at the synoptic scale, with 30 kt NE wind bursts kicking up dust before. These are found most so in late April thru early June. Before then, we have more hybrid types like yesterday - which fits the time of year actually. Just a nasty nasty cfront. By the way, ...if you look down at the Del Marva penn and S, it's a BD for them. Now imagine the climate of May around here, we're like they are today

The more I look at this .. I wouldn't trust any warm pattern up our way through at least mid month. Not saying it will be like today - this is something else entirely. There are fewer days out of a year actually this repugnant. This is something uniquely egregious. We could get lucky ... but we can't seem to shake a negative anomaly in the deep troposphere circulation mode wobbling around the Canadian archipelago to D. straight and back. And as that is persistently there, the flow is naturally going to be episodically confluent across S-SE Canada. That's going to generate these high pressures that then suppress the ambient late season polar boundary S ...probably south of climatology at times, too. That PV has been plaguing that region for months, really... As we embark upon the warm season, it's not relenting... not yet anyway. I think until that does we relay on being lucky... Since I live here, and want it to be warm, unfortunately ... that means everyone else that wants it warm will end up UN lucky Probably we'll log another NASA month where relative to everywhere else around, we have a negative offset cooler region over SE Can/NE U.S. when the March numbers are settled.

It's not forecast too but if this were to go over to snow, say ? that's like stepping off the perfect ass vomit because you're getting something back in amazement: 73 yesterday, snow today .. a rare and interesting, thus vaguely redeeming aspect. Hasn't happened yet, just sayn'

Actually, flipping over to IP ... but it's pure IP. No like mangle aggies in there. Clear and round.

Can't call this a GOAT rectal plaque bottom day because we get this once or twice per year around this overrated region. GOAT is a too singular of a distinction. It may in fact be more sufficed to say this isthe GOAT rectal plaque bottom geographical region on Planet Earth, because that would allow perfection of ass vomit more than once. This is that region on a middle Earth D&D map that just says Beware... Yet, civility chose to give this area a try. amazing 34/33 -R

3k NAM and standard NAM are both undermixed/erroneous in the 18 to 22z given those parametric synopsis. No way it's that cold. HRRR looks the same to me. WSW deep layer flow through opening ceilings in warm sector, under 560 dm hydrostatic heights is mid 60 minimum probably skyrocketing into the 70s