Typhoon Tip

heh...12z CMC transports 570 dm thickness to Pike on Mem Day, with a low going up the St L. That's a low lcl tvs look there.

Saturday'll be a lot like today is ... It's really only Sunday. Monday's unclear. Some guidance suppress the next roll up

Nah ... I was being an idiot. I don't know why I did not connect your post to what I just said - it was like a had a trans ischemic moment or something.

Oh I get it... sorry Ray. ha

I think Ray may actually be one of the aliens the current zeitgeist thinks walks amongst us? It would explain how that list of verbiage actually constructs a workable communication because it probably is lucid comprehension in the mind of a Zargon - As a software engineer with decades of experience no less, I cannot seem to decode this: "Let's station that there to add resistance"

uhmm ... can you help me parse out this sentence ^ ?

I'll tell ya tho ...whatever happens this weekend .. next week aside, until this crap stops, it ain't summer! not even close. I don't care wtf it was like the last 3 days ... not a summer hemisphere.

There are a few cases over the years whence something of sufficient magnitude penetrates the late spring/summer climate gauntlet enough to afflict a truly, perniciously shitty scenario. Just think back to the infamous July 4th weekend, 2020. 40s ( and I don't mean 'Kevin 40s'; real 40s), NE wind, rain. In fact, the May 1977 freak snow storm also fits into this sort of phenomenon - tho the snowing aspect might send some to feeling that's gotta be something extra double special and different but no ... Barring those few/rarer exceptions, after about ... ~ May 10th, shit outlooks tend to flop on the side of better when the days actually happen. I think this weekend may end up more in this ilk of inconvenience. We'll see. But I suspect Saturday is dry with some dim sun visible N of the Pike through early afternoon, then it gets more lorded over but still dry through evening. Sunday'll suck most likely... but given to the blocking that's setting up down stream, I could also see that correct a little drier as the day nears. Not sure what to make of Monday... Guidances are trying to create cold season meso lows near the Cape like it's December and trying to preserve a 31F dammed up icing scenario near FIT. No shame in the guidance about what time of year it is. Or, it's just an homage to the unusual blocking going on. That's odd btw. It's like there's a power house -NAO ridge pinning a Maritime trough in place... without having the ridge. The block appears to be non linear... like you just can't see it them, but they are there; forces are just spontaneously folding up a trough over the Maritime. It's stopping us from bouncing back very warm next week, too. Not sure how much of that is real.

We have a dry-line-like phenomenon that is part of our spring/summer climo in New England that isn't really very well recognized. I've noticed too many times then can be counted since moving to this region of the country ...decades ago, that when it is hot and humid and a corrective cool front is approaching, we gap dry air out ahead. The synoptic mechanism for this may not be too terribly different than what happens in W Tx... in principle. We have higher elevations W, check. Wind tendency to veer S of said higher elevations. Heating E also tends to trough the structure of flow subtly, which induces W d-slope component, W of the psuedo trough axis. The result manufactures a dry line along the trough's axis... The real front is still back up stream mid NY/PA. Not exactly the same but I see similarities there. The main difference is that whence the d-line forms here, it races E. That's why we get that deep blue sky with dry cough sear heat still 88 to 91 degrees N of the Pike like we did yesterday so often in that set up. You see anvil heads on the S horizon.

Which is precisely what took place prior to the previous El Nino ... a global warm burst led Which is precisely why I suspect we are seeing a similar burst taking place now Which is precisely what aggravates me - this is not garnering more attention. ...anyway... there seems to be something similar to a "non-Markovian" response in the global system. The analogy to help describe the effect of that, during a heat wave the day's rise in temperature often begins prior to the dawn - the mere approach of energy added to the system begins a measurable response. The system - in this case ... the air temperatures - begin to rise prior. Non-Markovian systemic response is a Quantum Mechanics concept where there appears to be a memory in the system based on a prior state. Such that stimulation doesn't have to work as hard to bring the state of the system back, as though it were first exposed. Something like this may be afoot. The end of the last NINA and entry into the +ENSO state in 2023 was alike the light prior to the dawn initiating the system to respond. Something similar may be taking place again, now. I remember hammering the significance ... that the ambit of science et al was not focused enough on the specific fact that such behavior was (apparently) unknowable and therefore, unanticipated. It is also not focused enough that the temperatures really did not settle back off that .3 to .4C burst.... ( this WAS anticipated to be the case and that did not happen). This GW/CC slow moving apocalypse could certainly happen in a series whip resets. We'll see where we are in 3 months...

Looks like a dry fropa Pike N, huh

blah blah blah.. !

Haha. Yeah, it’s pretty nondescript, huh? It’s actually in reference to the fully annotated and accredited post that I made yesterday I don’t know how many pages ago it is not more than a couple the depiction shows that the current exceedances into historic territory is even more so Source is from climate analyzer and those are the total global temperature means different years presented. The dark brown is 2026 and we are currently in the month of May in that graphical presentation

I think they’re missing a rather ominous thing there and that the replacement water in the western Pacific is a higher launching pad That’s causing … or could effect rather synergistically warmer scenario overall

Yeah..I'm starting to agree actually. The thing is, the same n-stream domination of the spring sort of helps because it intensifies the confluence - an aspect that the GFS "might" be handling better... Bit of speculation but if anyone has a better plausible explanation - The GFS doesn't seem to want to budge with a solution that fits that tho. we'll see. It's the difference between salvaging ... let's not get carried away.