Typhoon Tip

4 aspects go against anything of consequence... -- system movement too fast. 6 hours and the QPF's done reporting -- not enough in situ +PP over Ontario/QUE already dammed into the region. -- related to that ... cold is not being actively supplied with sub 0C DPs undercutting; without that thermodynamic fix, latent heat of phase change will self-defeat the situation -- not enough QPF This is a road skidder and a couple submissions to funniest home videos type ordeal ...aka advisory should do it.. I do agree though that with initial cold in the Ekman BL drag working with speed of system translation, the whole thing should probably be done with and on the west side of the escaping lp before warm sector makes very far N.

probably different reasoning vectors converging on the same idea... Breakdown of the Pac and introduction of +PNA is an H.A. signal in the gross sense but we're seeing it already in ensemble clusters The EPS with an impressive spread at 240+ hours is getting above the 95th %tile for this long of a lead. The GEFs still lag tho

Not speaking with confidence to any snow this that or the other ... but a significant event, Jan 6-7-8, has legs.

Huh? welcome to the internet, I guess. wtf

And note the complete disappearance of the erstwhile N. Pac. .... emerging +PNA/W. N/A low amplitude height response; may in fact be underdone as this is still an emerging signal. I suspect that to be case.

The indexes are loading the 7th thru the 12th of January, which is well matched with both experience based, as well as recent a-priori on pattern modulation discussed in the ending pages of the prior monthly thread In terms of standard confidence for this range? above normal for +PNA related event(s). Doesn't mean something can't break favorably prior to but from a holistic/all-inclusive field application the front and end of that time range above is the still blurry focus - which means we are free to move it some if needed. I'm not sure about events within the first week itself... That's a modulation time and yes ... events tend to happen when there's big mass-field modulations, but in this case it's gradual improvement of probability from the 1st to 7th ( as in lower to higher). It's almost like the previous pattern resists but then snaps all at once along that range. We'll see how it goes Beyond that's the entry into the weeklies which I find are less useful

the indexes are loading the 7th thru the 12th of January, which is well matched with both experience based, as well as recent a-priori on pattern modulation In terms of standard confidence for this range? above normal for +PNA related event(s)

Such high ratios, high stack efficiently

The main event! Radar vs the models

One implicating of losing the -EPO is the relaxation in the flow that takes place down stream over the continent. There's still plenty of cold air around... don't worry. But the upshot is that the gradient slacks off, and that allows the kinematics to conserve at the S/W scale. Right away, the Euro operational run takes advantage of that - whether it is correct or not ( likely not as is - ), the principle of a better pattern for winter enthusiasts immediately materializes there.

Some pretty heavy rad returns smeared out across S. Ontario pressing into Upstate NY. Likely to be an impressive radar display later on coming into the Capital District/SE NY, and as is typical ... you'll look at that and wonder how the hell could that miss. It would be something if one of these times ...just once, it didn't

The changes are starting out over the vastness of eastern/NE Asia and the relay across the N. arc of the Pacific Basin a bit over a week from now. I discussed this yesterday or the day before whenever that was that the GEPs was first, then joined by the EPS. The wave function producing that resonant -WPO feature out there that has plagued our side of the N. hemisphere is at last depicted to collapse. This is true among all ensemble systems - perhaps more aggressively so in the EPS and Canadian clusters but the GEFs mean's taken some strides. There's a few implications, some speculative... some known - but the caveat being that this all actually takes place. It's really out ~10 day whence the sweep begins... The timing can change, too. By the 300 or so hours out into the temporal range there is an abrupt reversal of the height anomaly distribution over the N. arc up there. Below is the EPS example. Change are coming ... Some very early indicators are +PNA, hinted already above with at least a return of the perennial W. N/A bulge over the Rockies. It's all very primitive.

Hmm a lot of "users" in this "psychotropic crack-house" are not constrained by negations such as the bold ^ ... because it gets in the way of their high. LOL Seriously ... if there were more willingness to objectivity, sans the most jerked off solution, that obvious and true aspect about the NAM would be elaborated upon by more people that just you and I and one or two randoms. But that's not what this engagement's all about.

You might be in luck … Major guard change signaled in the extended GEPS with coherent collapse of that remarkably persistent and intense -WPO, now being joined by the extended EPS. GEFs lag but I suspect it’s a matter of time …~ 10th+ of Jan This will send the roulette wheel for a turn … at least introducing footprints less neg interfering with the +PNA hemisphere … sorely lacking so far this cold season with that erstwhile signal - other than unstable quickly transient moments. 30th is a good example of this … That -WPO is an unusual/historic scenario and its sending odd wave signatures radically down stream. Need to get this inside of day 10 first

The track on this deal is as set as it can be. Variances that occur are within noise/acceptable error and not really predetermined It's the amplitude and QPF verification that is in question