Typhoon Tip

Muah hahahahahaaaaa

A long time ago there was a poster form NWS ... his name was Ekster He told me that the NAM has winter algorithms and that they were "not yet switched to warm season" once when we were looking at the warm early spring possibility. I wonder if that's still true. Granted we have a snow pack but ... we'll probably be mixing better tomorrow whence we'll be mad melting. I think it's fascinating if people let it ... to test how warmth performs running up over this glacier. lol

It is however precarious ... any time you have polar air amassing into Ontario, with > sfc pressure than what is in our area/SE ... that's teetering with correcting that boundary S. But the model run itself was not "lost of Tuesday's warmth"

This is 21z Tues afternoon on the NAM I'm not seeing a raging argument here for a warm failure on that day ( relative to climo and previous ideas -)

I set that to be 1951 -2020 just to be clear. I didn't say "below" anything. Not sure what you mean there. It was in regards to this tenor that this winter's somehow 'more like it's supposed to be'. Not sure that's wise. Too much data and actual math ( geophysical ) to suggest that is the case.

We still live a world that has been, and continues to consummately over-perform warmth (per verification). We just have been persistently given no excuse not to for perhaps 4 straight months. Today, with it's dense ceiling of solar blocked strata capping us drowned in left over polar inversion, definitely does not represent an excuse to go warm, either. If we bust the inversion, you will go above machine guidance and eat reality by force. Short sleeve shirt appeal over a snow pack occurs once this wiggly red feature wobbles through our region by tomorrow We haven't had a day of 64 F in so long. I sense that some posters doubt it can? some kind of acclimation bias. It's funny how willing folks are to think of this as back to normal winter and referencing climate like this is 1992. Reality check: this was the anomaly. Not the other way around. That's not coming back and you are wrong to perceive matters that way. Don't be fooled by this blue blob of fortunate.

Today's like day one of melt week, 2026 Yeah, we've put up a couple of 52ies recently, but those were dry DP, light wind, sparing the loss rates. Looking at 55 to 65 afternoons with more blow torch breezes ... even some over 40 DPs, lasting until that cold break toward a week from now. Actually looks like the 70 day may happen on Tuesday after all. I wouldn't be surprised if Wednesday morning on the way to work, people notice that field they pass everyday is no longer just planar white. I still have an issue with 70 over the fields but I've seen this in spring where cold drain out of the wooded areas is juxtaposing vividly against air that was not being protected. I agree with the sentiment that there's a window of interest in the 15-18th date range. It's not clear what that will mean.. .in fact, almost anything is possible from a Lakes cutter to a coastal, but there is a transient impressive +PNA bounce through that period.

Forget it ... I've struggled almost in vein to articulate this sort of salience. Crickets. Doesn't get learned. And it can't Because of the whole dopa addict thing? blocks those neuro-pathways. I'm certain of it. It's no different than going into a Methadone clinic and instructing patients to not crave or scheme how to get heroin. The drug rewires the brain such that it no longer has any neurological pathways capable of learning how to stop - and that blocks any kind of expectation that doesn't include getting high. LOL ... somethin like that

heh, we gain an hour of light in the evening tomorrow. Days are getting longer enough that I think moving the clocks won't plunge the morning's back into darkness as the daylight's coming up sufficiently early to absorb that clock move. Of course, what use does an hour of extra light in the evenings actually provide if we continue being steeped in this shitty-shits degrees and soothing mist bs. This "event" ( or lack there off ...) yesterday was really not the material aspect for the period, it was this big high and what's turned out to be an inCREdible pernicious BD air mass...It's slammed all the way down past the VA Capes. The high pressure that set this vomit into motion's long gone and smearing it's guts out across the N Atlantic, yet the front keeps rollin S down there. We are utterly decouple from the deep layer tropospheric synoptics as today's -12C inversion between the sfc and 2500 feet coherently argues. Anyone still living New England right now that has a choice to leave, yet hasn't, must be suffering a masochistic psychosis

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1DoVFtUPa4/

I think the point of the article is to convey the data, not to assess causality - just for clarity. They are pretty explicit in saying so. This last decade's d(warm) was .15 deg C > than the previous fairly stable .2 C increase spanning 45 years. I then went on to offer that the climate curve in pure temperature is a 'serrated' course... 2023/2024 may merely have been a particularly sloped year. The previous delta could certainly return. But ... new accelerations may also take place. Acceleration was proven unpredictable leading 2023. What if this happens over the next year... ? Keep in mind, the acceleration actually took off prior to that warm ENSO event. I don't disagree that 10 years in a vacuum isn't very useful to describe the complexities of an entire planetary system- that's quite intuitive. However, technically the study was 55 years: 10 years vs the previous 45. It doesn't refute the fact of the numbers. As to it's significance, that remains to be seen.

OH I think the storm track's shifted N, frankly. I won't have hurt feelings if I turn out wrong there, but I have the equinox, climatology, and CC on my side here. Look at the sfc cinema on that run. It's one transit after the other down the 50th parallel of the continent. They'll drape strong cold fronts, sure. And probably some labored warm fronts ahead that drizzle at 34F. ...all keeping us from being "warm warm" like you're intimating, but I'm sort of leaning on the first step out being a coherent retreat of the storm track. We can still get a wintry event via anomaly relative to that, or bowling season related, etc.. but those are by def fleeting.

The last two days worth of GFS operational cycles have been doing this sort of look out there in the la-la range ... new leitmotif. I've found in the spring ( and autumn with cold looks, too - works in either direction), these longer range charts might actually carry some principle value, not daily or per se prognostic skill. Those are two different things. One's conceptualizing a synoptic potential at longer leads, the other is deterministic. Anyway, this next week's "failing" warm up was really exposed similarly to this above... when it too was a long lead. But idiosyncratics about the late winter/early spring hemisphere emerged to suppress, more so then corrected. In other words, I wonder it the lower latitude planetary wave distribution (which has longer residence ) is actually a warm HA - cool Baja - warm SW Atlantic basin... It would be sitting in wait for those "idiosyncractics" of late winter and early spring to pull away...

I know what you're getting at... It's the difference between a well mixed warm sector with amorphous WCB trafficking strata and more DP related warmth. It's 64/57 below the warm front and E of the main b-c axis. That kind of warm up is impressive probably more so in the DP/ thermodynmaic quotient. The kinetic side of the temp is hugely above normal but not out of control in this kind of warm up. The other kind, the big dawg warming events that are more index correlated ... those are ridge dome deals with larger scale DVM compression through an unseasonably early 850 mb to surface kinetic layer. The actual thermodynamic quotient of the atmosphere is surprisingly low... 75/27 type thing... Moisten that air mass and it's 44 F beat the red head step child weather. Those kind of larger planetary wave things are related to the loss of polar index/mass field modulations on the mid latitudes, and when the air is dry and there's 850 mb anomalies rattling around in the ridge, the kinetic ceiling is high. Which by the way...either tends to proceed a -NAO burst. All that warmth then terminates at high latitude and there's a height growth up there.