Typhoon Tip

Made it to 70 ..

I'd be willing to sacrifice some days now, for the UKMET to verify ... so that the word stein is never again floated this summer and/or can be set to ignore

up to 67 here.. d-slope/kadabatic flow combined with nearing solar max intensity, unobstructed sun perhaps offsets. I'm noticing the d-slope wind direction is just about ideally 320 deg, too. It's stunning outside. It is for the hour a perfect top 1 interval of time. We'll see how the afternoon goes

The 00z EPS and GEPs means agree with the principle aspects between 60 and 96 hours, but the GEFs ( and the operational GFS included) do not agree. The EPS/GEPs have more diving mechanics through 100 W in that range. The GEFs ( what's new) lean more progressive in just enough crucial amount that it bi-passes the diving/severing wave space. What's happening at hemispheric scales in the 60 to 120 hours is a coherent d(contraction) N of the entire circumpolar westerlies - A.K.A., the rising annular mode or a +d(Arctic Oscillation) That large scale behavior 'abandons' the ongoing wave transports at mid latitudes, and they end up cut off lows. if/when/whether one sets up between the TV and NE regions has a lot of wiggle room as far as where, and to what scale/degree of amplitude. One aspect about the GFS I've noticed is that it at times sags the mean polar jet latitude out of nowhere - wholesale. When it does, like the 06z version ... it's like it's stepping back 45 days of seasonal change. I think the rising annular mode is likely to occur, as it's own telecon is positive. And I've noted in the past the GFS does the over aggressive N stream. So I find the GFS solution suspect in this case... based on that known behavior, combined with the weight of the other ens means - which also have the rising annular mode. I figure for some form or another of cut-off is probable. But as is usually the case, this is where/when the models perform their worst, pinning down how much and where. Goes to figure ... they've been all over the place with this thing for the last 4 or 5 day's worth of model cycles. It could be a very weak system in the TV with a over arching warm ridge spilling 'over the top'.... ranging to a Del Marva gyre that pumps a seasonal corrective QPF load. Deterministically all this will be helped/depends on how the flow is handled between 60 and 96 hours as the models transport through ~ 100 W across the continent.

CNN: Millennials are giving Gen Z advice for their first potential recession ...oh yeah, how about, think the next time before you cast a flippant vote, flouting the virtuosity of knowing what the fuck your doing -

oh, it was the 06z GFS with that lewd west retro thing. But even this 12z idea strains cred for me by some. The 00z GFS is probably closer to what happens thu D10.

I feel that is unlikely to happen. It's bordering on absurd closing a NS/NF mid/ua low and then drilling almost to BUF. For one, that has never happened like that in the 35 years I've been privy to modeling technology - pretty much the whole way... In objective fairness, I suppose it is not IMpossible ... if the model's selling things that are, that would be a pretty bad deterministic tool, huh. But the unlikeliness being what it is ( based on history; based on 'wtf how could it' ), lends to an expose of error. I think the Euro is far in way more reasonable. I could see a weaker cut off getting caught in the ridge amber down there. That's not unusual, although it's perhaps at a slightly lower latitude than climo. It also dumps in a small portion of new dynamics, helping to regrograde. Personally...? I think there's some chance that it's all overblown.

np ... frankly, I begin to think the PI distinction may be less meaningful since ~ 1998 anyway; since, the curve's become less linear and more exponential. That changes the things, because something is happening endemic to these last 2 or 3 decades. It's really like we need to change the narrative to "since pre super NINO 1998" The pre Industrial aspect is like a built in reminder that the 'momentum' in anthropomorphic forcing began when civility converted to an industrial format, but it appears some sort of trigger for feed-back induced synergistic heating is more recent, and dangerous once you get into non-linear responses. We know PI began this - though the laity doesn't. You know, in some quantum sense of it, probably really began when the first lesser hominid picked up a burning stick and light dawned some 300,000 years ago. The curve was likely not linear all along, but to a close approximation, predictions based upon would be relatively well behaved. Case in point, the 2023: a whole planetary systemic temperature surged. If a 1930s sci-fi writer conceived that in 2023 a temperature burst at a planetary scale would take place, it would probably be integral in a d-day plot. When is the next unseen thing going to happen, and wtf is going to be when an entire planet farts. Now that it has really happened... guess were juts in it and not knowing if we're going to win it.

approaching 30 degree delta at KFIT ... 67 ..was 39 there. 41 to 67 here as of 9:10. Bigger diurnal changes in the valleys. ORH stopped at 50

We desperately need a head-scratch emoji. Scientific disciplines sometimes do adopt a word, the use of which is internally defined to the parlance of the scientific dialogue - I'm not sure I've personally ever encountered secular in any context of weather-related science, though - unless ( LOL ) it's how we feel around here when a BD sends summer to NYC while we're stuck in the 40s ... because we're definitely engaged in a NON-secular relationship with the weather when that happens.... secular /sĕk′yə-lər/ adjective Worldly rather than spiritual. "the secular affairs of the parish." Not relating to religion or to a religious body; nonreligious. "secular music." Not bound by the full monastic rule of a religious order. Used of clergy.

Thankfully ... the models are bum pounding another Saturday just like everyone wants -

https://phys.org/news/2025-04-summer-lapland-warmest-years.html

do you remember at Funky Murphy's, we were talking about the "deamplification" error of the models? How there seems to be an everyday requirement of whatever eye-candy there is in the extended, to salt the sucker at least some amount. I suspect that is related to the models having to "speed up" the flow, moving all events from circa D12s to D8s ... to D4s and so on. Along the way, speeding up processes is but very subtle along 6 hourly intervals in the models, but is too little perhaps to notice. But aggregated over time, requires some 20% ( for the sake of discussion) of mechanical organization lost after a week of doing that.. It's like an exchange, where the models have to take energy from the small scales, to then supply the large scale with the faster basal flow velocities. Sounds like human-based economics interestingly enough... haha

You know ... not that my opinion needs to matter more than the next guy's. In striving to be 'reasonable', objectivity should be one's governing goal. If they are ... others will be more likely to consider ... etc... Aaaand then we let MAGA choose what's objective. LOL no Seriously, I maintain that CC is true. I also maintain that the science of CC et al is not entirely certain as to how it will manifest. I will say ... there is a growing compendium of published papers that describe changes in the global circulation; faster jets is one of them. I've posted links in American WX here and there, but no replies or forwarding conversation, lend much of any confidence that anyone would recall my having done so... heh. There's a lot of advancing mathematics that has demonstrated better predictive skill, but there's still quite obviously ( and I know you may not like this word but bear with the semantics ) "alarming" gaps. Case in point, 2023: not a single human being ( that I am aware...), nor any technology therefrom, predicted that en entire fucking planet ( a whole planet ) would up and raise a degree C, ocean to air, everywhere, simultaneously. It was strangeness at a tedious scale that I haven't heard anyone, not even the University apparatus, mention. There's plenty of, 'still a mystery as to how,' type studies, but none that I've seen the specifically addresses the question: why would the 40N and above spanning Atlantic Basin SSTs, rise at the same rate and amount as the Indian Ocean, while both rose at a similar amount and speed as the ENSO band ( 4, 3.4, 3, 1+2)... as did the south Pacific...? It's like some kind of conductor zapped the whole world. These fields, moving in unison, is the alarming aspect. And the atmosphere went right along with it... That occurrence proves that "the science of CC et al is not entirely certain as to how it will manifest" That uncertainty, moreover, allows for a larger envelope of plausible emergence yet to be presented given time. Last winter was - I think - an under-the-radar extraordinary event. It just didn't hurt anything. I've been alive for many decades now ...I've never seen 4" lousy inches of snow survive 3.5 months of time in any winter, including the big dawgs of lore. The persistent temperature suppression, albeit not extraordinarily cold, that went along with that ... is something I've never heard of. I suspect CC is always manifesting in these idiosyncratic ways that are too nuanced to most people's everyday, including the nerds, to really consider. We are an observation enslaved interpreter species of the universe and nature - we water cooler and shelve all speculation and predictions, until they are squeezing our balls.