Typhoon Tip

GFS is fighting warmth like it does ever spring and early summer. This recent series' of runs' technique was to pinch off all of 576 dm height low and act like that's sufficient to drive near gale east chilly flow into the M/A and commensurately destroying the sensible weather up and down the EC all next week. It's been showing all kinds of continuity issues with that scenario tho. 18z yesterday it pinched off almost no planetary scaled turd. Yet a coffee break in model time later it goes and stinks up the whole works with this bs at 00z. We'll see. Both the Euro, CMC and the ensembles of all three, EPS,GEPS and GEFs are less with that ordeal. The only thing going for the GFS typical fuck it up for everyone by inventing physical math is that gee ... this spring has seemed to succeed at doing that anyway. Actually in fairness the 06z GFS was less shitty looking. But therein is an example of continuity issues. I tend to think the GFS is over sensitive to curvature in the flow. In both directions - perhaps an emergent property if not error of it's 'physical machinery'. It seems to conserve too much when troughs are lifting out, and does these nip and tuck jobs too often. On the other end, it ablates the extent or ridging by fire-hosing polar jet velocities over top of the curvature like a stump grinder. It's subtle with this overall, but it's just enough to be annoying and one cannot unsee it once they get a sense of it happening with this model.

that would be a fascinating look on the 00z operational Euro if it were not 340 hours out ... quasi Bahama Blue pattern with a TC rollin' up inside the conveyor.

From the looks of upstream tomorrow's fucked too. Mostly cloudy and mild weee I dunno. Maybe the shit streak finally succumbs to DVM lol

here it is...300 mb

Models either missed this 300 mb shit streak or it was just not noticed but it's been completely slam shut ceilings here right during the big warming hours of the day, so ...yet again, 2026 finding the coldest way to weasel bust

Not sure ... For whatever method, those are probabilities tho. For whatever metrics they're weighting, not the actually anomalies like this sentence intimates: "One thing I notice a lot is the CPC seems to overdo sfc temp anomalies." I blame CPC - most people misconstrue that product. In fact, I've pointed this out on this site, to the same individuals who continue to do so LOL ... and it doesn't seem to register. They probably - or should ... but who knows - provide an explanation/methodology statement somewhere in their web access. They do have a contact option. The only thing they have is a confidence/probability by forecaster, but don't delve into what the forecaster is actually looking over.

those aren't scalar anomaly ranges ... They're probabilities for being above(below) at all... scaled.

hard to do that in winter

Not bad...this might actually be my steepest (delta slope) recovery I've seen in some time. 41 at 5:40am and just 66 at 8:35 over here at the Oxbo and Shirley NWS sites represent 25 F in 2:55 hours

Just thought to clarify: should today's 79 (probably 80, let's get real), and then 83 to 88's thru Saturday verify, that would be solidly above normal - nocturnal lows notwithstanding, but their progged to be 55+ in the machine numbers. Come to think of it, if we get 4-nights back to back of 55-60s, that might be the warmest nocturnal streak since last autumn. I realize you're lighthearted ribbin back and forth, but he was responding to Scott's "no prolonged heat". There is no"re"ribbing him on the same accord - that doesn't count LOL. Seriously tho, I suspect you're neighborhood/township region is a cold climo relative to the region. There are those areas that tend to be warmer owners, there are those that tend to be the cooler in any given scenario. You are the latter? I would not use you're point and click - if that is the case ... - to characterize expectation for any week that includes BDL/FIT/ASH/MHT/Lowel to Lawrence, which typically do well in light wind high sun recovery scenarios in Junes

True MEX MOS is 80 to 88 every day thru Saturday ( that includes Saturday ). That's a 4 days of 80s? Decent. I was just musing with Scott that in principle we haven't committed to the warm season yet. We've had heat, but until the basal return pattern state stops dipping lows below 40 this is a zombie winter. Imho of course... There's either a standard c-front (Euro) or a BD (CMC/GFS) late Saturday night and Sunday's on the cool side, but at this time ...the modeled air mass/thicknesses are not that 47 F shit. More like bopping us back to 64. Could be wet, or it could be dry...then ,there's another warm push mid next week - that one looks more like a warm sector Don't have much of a bead on post 15th June yet

Still winter if you took a polar rotted January thermal profile and subjected it to June sun, you'd get that January sfc temp to be just like yesterday

I don't think we've had "prolonged" heat here for years. We've had heat waves, ...usually falling short of what they could have been when they do with just one day out of them that gets to 97.. Kind of like what happened earlier in May ... some with more or less DP to go along with. But they're too many reasons to neg interfere. I'm beginning to think the return rate around here is so long there's no practical value in really looking much less waiting for them. Those 97 for five days running over lows of 76 with 82 in the urban centers are Chicago to KC or NYC S.

I think today's gonna seem pretty warm W of I-95 Wouldn't be shocked if Scott to Ray sniff Labrador's nut sack in the afternoon. Such a weak gradient in place and the intensity of the 100% bake in the interior, seems they delay warm arrival by one last reach back face smack upon exit of this pattern. LOL. Or not... where not, MAV/MET MOS have both inched closer to 80 for today. Right now they're 78 .. 79 around the BDL-FIT-ASH horn. Testing that

so a hugely rangy summer then -